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This paper develops a trustworthy deep learning model that considers electricity demand (G) and local climate conditions. The model utilises Multi-Head Self-Attention Transformer (TNET) to capture critical information from G, to attain reliable predictions with local climate (rainfall, radiation, humidity, evaporation, and maximum and minimum temperatures) data from Energex substations in Queensland, Australia. The TNET model is then evaluated with deep learning models (Long-Short Term Memory LSTM, Bidirectional LSTM BILSTM, Gated Recurrent Unit GRU, Convolutional Neural Networks CNN, and Deep Neural Network DNN) based on robust model assessment metrics. The Kernel Density Estimation method is used to generate the prediction interval (PI) of electricity demand forecasts and derive probability metrics and results to show the developed TNET model is accurate for all the substations. The study concludes that the proposed TNET model is a reliable electricity demand predictive tool that has high accuracy and low predictive errors and could be employed as a stratagem by demand modellers and energy policy-makers who wish to incorporate climatic factors into electricity demand patterns and develop national energy market insights and analysis systems.

Prediction problems in timed datasets related to human activities are especially difficult to solve, because of the specific characteristics and the scarce number of predictive (input) variables available to tackle these problems. In this paper, we try to find out whether Machine Learning (ML) approaches can be successfully applied to these problems. We deal with timed datasets with human activity patterns, in which the input variables are exclusively related to the day or type of day when the prediction is carried out and, usually, to the meteorology of those days. These problems with a marked human activity pattern frequently appear in mobility and traffic-related problems, delivery prediction (packets, food), and many other activities, usually in cities. We evaluate the performance in these problems of different ML methods such as artificial neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons, extreme learning machines) and support vector regression algorithms, together with an Analogue-type (KNN) approach, which serves as a baseline algorithm and provides information about when it is expected that ML approaches will fail, by looking for similar situations in the past. The considered ML algorithms are evaluated in four real prediction problems with human activity patterns, such as school absences, bike-sharing demand, parking occupation, and packets delivered in a post office. The results obtained show the good performance of the ML algorithms, revealing that they can deal with scarce information in all the problems considered. The results obtained have also revealed the importance of including meteorology as the input variables, showing that meteorology is frequently behind demand peaks or valleys in this kind of problem. Finally, we show that having a number of similar situations in the past (training set) prevents ML algorithms from making important mistakes in the prediction obtained.

We review the latest modeling techniques and propose new hybrid SAELSTM framework based on Deep Learning (DL) to construct prediction intervals for daily Global Solar Radiation (GSR) using the Manta Ray Foraging Optimization (MRFO) feature selection to select model parameters. Features are employed as potential inputs for Long Short-Term Memory and a seq2seq SAELSTM autoencoder Deep Learning (DL) system in the final GSR prediction. Six solar energy farms in Queensland, Australia are considered to evaluate the method with predictors from Global Climate Models and ground-based observation. Comparisons are carried out among DL models (i.e., Deep Neural Network) and conventional Machine Learning algorithms (i.e., Gradient Boosting Regression, Random Forest Regression, Extremely Randomized Trees, and Adaptive Boosting Regression). The hyperparameters are deduced with grid search, and simulations demonstrate that the DL hybrid SAELSTM model is accurate compared with the other models as well as the persistence methods. The SAELSTM model obtains quality solar energy prediction intervals with high coverage probability and low interval errors. The review and new modelling results utilising an autoencoder deep learning method show that our approach is acceptable to predict solar radiation, and therefore is useful in solar energy monitoring systems to capture the stochastic variations in solar power generation due to cloud cover, aerosols, ozone changes, and other atmospheric attenuation factors.