1. Generative AI and WMD Nonproliferation: A Practical Primer for Policymakers and Diplomats.
- Author
-
Bajema, Natasha E.
- Subjects
ARTIFICIAL neural networks ,GENERATIVE artificial intelligence ,ARTIFICIAL intelligence ,LANGUAGE models ,TECHNOLOGICAL risk assessment - Abstract
This primer provides a comprehensive overview of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and its implications for weapons of mass destruction (WMD) nonproliferation. It addresses five key areas, beginning with fundamental AI concepts that explain the evolution from traditional AI to current generative AI systems. The primer distinguishes between predictive and generative AI models, emphasizing how the newest AI models, particularly large language models (LLMs), differ from previous technologies in their ability to generate novel content rather than simply making predictions. The document provides a detailed analysis of various generative AI architectures, including LLMs, diffusion models, and emerging world models. It outlines different training techniques (supervised, unsupervised, reinforcement learning) and explains how these systems are developed and improved through methods like fine-tuning and retrieval augmented generation (RAG). The primer then explores current applications of generative AI, from basic chatbot interactions to sophisticated agentic AI systems capable of autonomous action. It details how organizations can customize AI models for specific domains and discusses the emergence of AIenhanced search engines and workflow automation. Several critical challenges are identified, including design flaws (hallucinations, data biases, and copyright issues), implementation risks (data privacy, disinformation, and malicious use potential), and growth limitations (data shortages, energy constraints, and uncertain economic returns). The primer pays particular attention to specific WMD-related concerns, such as the potential for misuse in weapons development and proliferation. The document also outlines current and emerging regulatory approaches, including U.S. initiatives like Executive Order 14110, the European Union’s AI Act, global governance efforts through international organizations, and specific measures for addressing WMD-related risks. The primer concludes with practical guidance for policymakers and diplomats, including detailed instructions for using AI tools and frameworks for evaluating their potential benefits and risks in the nonproliferation domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024