Search

Under global warming, the convective heating over the western Pacific (WP) has exhibited a significantly intensifying trend during the boreal spring, while the surface air temperatures in the Middle East (ME) have increased more rapidly than those in other tropical regions. Are these climate phenomena of the two regions physically connected? If yes, what are the responsible dynamical mechanisms involved? Utilizing the ERA5 reanalysis data and model simulations, this study reveals a significant seesaw variation in the convection and temperature trends between WP and ME. When convective heating intensifies over the WP, the ME tends to be drier and hotter during the spring, and vice versa. A further investigation indicates that the enhanced WP convective heating can induce anticyclonic circulation anomalies in the upper and middle troposphere over the Iranian and Tibetan plateaus. These anomalous high pressures extend westward, exhibiting a barotropic structure, which leads to stronger sinking motions, reduced cloud cover, and increased surface solar radiation over the ME. Consequently, these conditions result in drier and hotter soils and an increase in heatwave days in the ME. This study provides useful information for enhancing our understanding of the role of tropical WP climate change in influencing the upstream climate conditions with a focus on the ME. Plain Language Summary: Under global warming, the western Pacific (WP) has experienced a significant increase in convective heating during the spring, while the Middle East (ME) is seeing a faster rise in surface temperatures compared to other tropical regions. This study investigates whether these climate changes in WP and ME are interconnected and what mechanisms may be involved. The results show that when convective heating intensifies over the WP, the ME tends to become drier and hotter in the spring. The findings suggest that increased heating over the WP can lead to anomalous high pressures over the Iranian and Tibetan plateaus, which result in reduced precipitation, decreased cloud cover, and increased solar radiation, causing higher temperatures in the ME. This study enhances our understanding of how climate changes in the tropical WP can influence weather and climate conditions in the ME. Key Points: The convection in the western Pacific (WP) has been intensifying during spring in 1979–2022Surface air temperatures have been rising faster in the Middle East (ME) than in other tropical regionsThe intensified WP convection likely contributes to the increase in heatwave days over the ME [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the physical mechanisms responsible for the impacts of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) on the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with a focus on understanding the monsoon-induced Pacific air–sea interactive processes. An observational analysis displays that a weaker-than-normal ISM can strengthen an ongoing El Niño event and weaken a La Niña event, and conversely for a stronger-than-normal ISM. A 1000-yr output from the Community Earth System Model version 2 is capable of reproducing this observed feature and is therefore used to explore the responsible ocean–atmosphere interactive processes involved. Results show that a weak ISM can cause a cyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific via stimulating atmospheric cold Kelvin waves, and conversely for a strong ISM. The westerly (easterly) wind anomalies on the southern flank of the anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) generate eastward (westward) current anomalies in the mixed layer and thus induce anomalous warm (cold) zonal advection. Furthermore, the wind anomalies excite oceanic downwelling (upwelling) Kelvin waves, which deepen (shoal) the thermocline in the equatorial eastern Pacific and result in anomalous warm (cold) vertical advection. A quantitative mixed layer heat budget analysis demonstrates that the influence of the monsoon-induced Pacific wind anomalies on ENSO is mainly achieved by changing the zonal advective feedback and thermocline feedback. This result is confirmed by model sensitivity experiments in which additional monsoon heating or cooling anomalies are imposed over the Indian region during the developing summer of an ENSO event. Significance Statement: While previous studies have reported that the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) could influence the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), this study is aimed at understanding the physical mechanisms for the Pacific air–sea interactive processes induced by the monsoon and their impact on ENSO. It is found that a weak and strong ISM can respectively induce an anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific. The wind anomalies on the southern flank of the anomalous circulation mainly change the zonal advective feedback and the thermocline feedback to affect ENSO development. This study provides a detailed physical explanation of how the ISM influences ENSO evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal winter-peaked Atlantic Niño/Niña can influence La Niña/El Niño (the cold/warm phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) in the following year. However, the Atlantic Niño-La Niña relationship is more uncertain than the Atlantic Niña-El Niño counterpart. Here, we show that this uncertainty arises from two distinct types of Atlantic Niño events: the Equatorial and Expanded types, which differ in their meridional sea surface temperature (SST) warming. The Equatorial type, with SST warming confined to the equator, has a weaker climate impact due to limited influence on local convective heating in spring when the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) shifts southward. In contrast, the Expanded type, with SST warming extending into the southern tropical Atlantic (STA), drive persistent local anomalous convection heating and strong remote atmospheric responses in the tropical Pacific from winter to spring. Our results emphasize the critical role of STA conditions in shaping the influence of winter Atlantic Niño on the Pacific., Competing Interests: Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2025. The Author(s).)

The influences of the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans on the development of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), especially regarding super El Niño events, have been a subject of debate. In particular, several studies argue that these cross-basin influences may be mere statistical artifacts resulting from the high auto-correlation of ENSO. To clarify this issue, we conduct a series of perfect model hindcast experiments to untangle the individual and synergistic effects of the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans. Our results clearly demonstrate that without these cross-basin effects, the Pacific warming would rarely reach super El Niño level. Specifically, the individual effect of the Indian Ocean efficiently enhances the development of super El Niño events. In contrast, the Atlantic's effect is initially limited because it fails to establish the Bjerknes feedback in the Pacific. However, when coupled with the Indian Ocean, the Atlantic's effect becomes more pronounced as it is amplified by the Bjerknes feedback established by the Indian Ocean.