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Anticipating species’ responses to environmental change is a pressing mission in biodiversity conservation. Despite decades of research investigating how climate change may affect population sizes, historical context is lacking, and the traits that mediate demographic sensitivity to changing climate remain elusive. We use whole-genome sequence data to reconstruct the demographic histories of 263 bird species over the past million years and identify networks of interacting morphological and life history traits associated with changes in effective population size (Ne) in response to climate warming and cooling. Our results identify direct and indirect effects of key traits representing dispersal, reproduction and survival on long-term demographic responses to climate change, thereby highlighting traits most likely to influence population responses to ongoing climate warming., Anticipating species’ responses to environmental change is a pressing mission in biodiversity conservation. Despite decades of research investigating how climate change may affect population sizes, historical context is lacking, and the traits that mediate demographic sensitivity to changing climate remain elusive. We use whole-genome sequence data to reconstruct the demographic histories of 263 bird species over the past million years and identify networks of interacting morphological and life history traits associated with changes in effective population size (N e) in response to climate warming and cooling. Our results identify direct and indirect effects of key traits representing dispersal, reproduction and survival on long-term demographic responses to climate change, thereby highlighting traits most likely to influence population responses to ongoing climate warming.

The Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania and Kenya, a montane archipelago of 13 uplifted fault blocks (sky islands) isolated by lowland arid savanna, are a center of exceptional biological endemism. Under the influence of humid winds from the Indian Ocean, forests and associated species may have persisted in this region since the final uplift of these blocks in the late Miocene. Today, these mountains are inhabited by a remarkable diversity of bird species. To better understand the evolutionary processes behind this diversity, we combined molecular phylogenetic studies of East African montane birds with paleoclimate modeling of its montane forests. Across its largest lowland barrier, the 125 km between the Usambara and Nguru/Nguu Mountains, 10 of the 14 bird lineages exhibited a phylogeographic break. Using Bayesian methods, we established that at least three periods of forest contraction and expansion affected the diversification of Eastern Arc birds. Habitat distribution models suggest that lower-elevation hills may have acted as stepping-stones connecting isolated highlands to allow for the dispersal of montane forest-dependent species across them. Periods of vicariance during paleoclimatic cycles extending back through the Last Glacial Maximum would have then isolated these populations within the highlands they had reached. The broad distribution of neoendemic species across the mountains of East Africa provides evidence of climate cycling as a driver of lineage diversification. The high incidence of narrow-range endemism of paleoendemic species on the Usambara, Uluguru, and Udzungwa Mountains of this region is harder to explain. Our paleoclimate models retrodicted the persistence of montane forest during climate cycles on several Eastern Arc sky islands but not on the Southern Tanzania Volcanic Highlands. Consistent with recent theoretical work, different rates of local extinction rather than increased rates of lineage diversification may explain the pattern of ex, The Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania and Kenya, a montane archipelago of 13 uplifted fault blocks (sky islands) isolated by lowland arid savanna, are a center of exceptional biological endemism. Under the influence of humid winds from the Indian Ocean, forests and associated species may have persisted in this region since the final uplift of these blocks in the late Miocene. Today, these mountains are inhabited by a remarkable diversity of bird species. To better understand the evolutionary processes behind this diversity, we combined molecular phylogenetic studies of East African montane birds with paleoclimate modeling of its montane forests. Across its largest lowland barrier, the 125 km between the Usambara and Nguru/Nguu Mountains, 10 of the 14 bird lineages exhibited a phylogeographic break. Using Bayesian methods, we established that at least three periods of forest contraction and expansion affected the diversification of Eastern Arc birds. Habitat distribution models suggest that lower-elevation hills may have acted as stepping-stones connecting isolated highlands to allow for the dispersal of montane forest-dependent species across them. Periods of vicariance during paleoclimatic cycles extending back through the Last Glacial Maximum would have then isolated these populations within the highlands they had reached. The broad distribution of neoendemic species across the mountains of East Africa provides evidence of climate cycling as a driver of lineage diversification. The high incidence of narrow-range endemism of paleoendemic species on the Usambara, Uluguru, and Udzungwa Mountains of this region is harder to explain. Our paleoclimate models retrodicted the persistence of montane forest during climate cycles on several Eastern Arc sky islands but not on the Southern Tanzania Volcanic Highlands. Consistent with recent theoretical work, different rates of local extinction rather than increased rates of lineage diversification may explain the pattern of

Despite evidence of declining biosphere integrity, we currently lack understanding of how the functional diversity associated with changes in abundance among ecological communities has varied over time and before widespread human disturbances. We combine morphological, ecological, and life-history trait data for >260 extant bird species with genomic-based estimates of changing effective population size (Ne) to quantify demographic-based shifts in avian functional diversity over the past million years and under pre-anthropogenic climate warming. We show that functional diversity was relatively stable over this period, but underwent significant changes in some key areas of trait space due to changing species abundances. Our results suggest that patterns of population decline over the Pleistocene have been concentrated in particular regions of trait space associated with extreme reproductive strategies and low dispersal ability, consistent with an overall erosion of functional diversity. Further, species most sensitive to climate warming occupied a relatively narrow region of functional space, indicating that the largest potential population increases and decreases under climate change will occur among species with relatively similar trait sets. Overall, our results identify fluctuations in functional space of extant species over evolutionary timescales and represent the demographic-based vulnerability of different regions of functional space among these taxa. The integration of paleodemographic dynamics with functional trait data enhances our ability to quantify losses of biosphere integrity before anthropogenic disturbances and attribute contemporary biodiversity loss to different drivers over time., Despite evidence of declining biosphere integrity, we currently lack understanding of how the functional diversity associated with changes in abundance among ecological communities has varied over time and before widespread human disturbances. We combine morphological, ecological, and life-history trait data for >260 extant bird species with genomic-based estimates of changing effective population size (Ne) to quantify demographic-based shifts in avian functional diversity over the past million years and under pre-anthropogenic climate warming. We show that functional diversity was relatively stable over this period, but underwent significant changes in some key areas of trait space due to changing species abundances. Our results suggest that patterns of population decline over the Pleistocene have been concentrated in particular regions of trait space associated with extreme reproductive strategies and low dispersal ability, consistent with an overall erosion of functional diversity. Further, species most sensitive to climate warming occupied a relatively narrow region of functional space, indicating that the largest potential population increases and decreases under climate change will occur among species with relatively similar trait sets. Overall, our results identify fluctuations in functional space of extant species over evolutionary timescales and represent the demographic-based vulnerability of different regions of functional space among these taxa. The integration of paleodemographic dynamics with functional trait data enhances our ability to quantify losses of biosphere integrity before anthropogenic disturbances and attribute contemporary biodiversity loss to different drivers over time.

The rapid diversification and high species richness of flowering plants is regarded as ‘Darwin’s second abominable mystery’. Today the global spatiotemporal pattern of plant diversification remains elusive. Using a newly generated genus-level phylogeny and global distribution data for 14,244 flowering plant genera, we describe the diversification dynamics of angiosperms through space and time. Our analyses show that diversification rates increased throughout the early Cretaceous and then slightly decreased or remained mostly stable until the end of the Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction event 66 million years ago. After that, diversification rates increased again towards the present. Younger genera with high diversification rates dominate temperate and dryland regions, whereas old genera with low diversification dominate the tropics. This leads to a negative correlation between spatial patterns of diversification and genus diversity. Our findings suggest that global changes since the Cenozoic shaped the patterns of flowering plant diversity and support an emerging consensus that diversification rates are higher outside the tropics.