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Introduction: The rising prevalence of osteoarthritis, associated with an ageing population, is expected to deliver increasing demand for arthroplasty services in the future. Understanding the scale of potential change is essential to ensure adequate provision of services and prevent prolonged waiting times that can cause patient harm. Methods: We set out to provide projections of future primary knee and hip arthroplasty out to 2038 utilising historical trend data (2008–2018) from the Scottish Arthroplasty Project. All analyses were performed using the Holt's exponential smoothing projection method with the forecast package in R statistics. Results were adjusted for projected future population estimates provided by National Records of Scotland. Independent age group predictions were also performed. Results: The predicted rise of primary hip arthroplasty for all ages is from 120/100k/year in 2018 to 152/100k/year in 2038, a 28% increase. The predicted rise of primary knee arthroplasty for all ages is from 164/100k/year in 2018 to 220/100k/year in 2038, a 34% increase. Based on a static 3‐day length of stay average this would see 4280 and 7392 additional patient bed days required for primary hip and knee arthroplasty patients respectively per annum. The associated additional cost is anticipated to be approximately £26 million. Conclusions: Anticipated future demand for arthroplasty will require significant additional resource and funding to prevent deterioration in quality of care and an increase in patient wait times, additional to that already required to clear the COVID‐19 backlog. Understanding presented projections of changes to arthroplasty demand is key to future service delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Failed fixation of intracapsular hip fractures in young patients is associated with high morbidity and cost. Accordingly, we set out to determine the association between unsatisfactory post-operative imaging (judged by two fellowship-trained trauma consultants and a senior trainee) and the risk of subsequent reoperation, including adjustment for potential confounding variables. Ninety-four (94) patients aged <60 were included in the study from a single major trauma centre. Exhausted patients (19%) required further surgery, with the most common reason being avascular necrosis (n=10) followed by non-union (n=6). Univariate analysis found only smokers and unsatisfactory fracture reduction to be predictive of failure (p < 0.05). Other demographics and recognised scoring systems from the literature were poor predictors of failure apart from the Haiduewych classification system, utilised to assess the quality of reduction, which showed a trend towards significance (p0.053). Multivariate analysis showed smoking and unsatisfactory fracture reduction to be strong predictors of failure (p<0.05). In those with unsatisfactory fracture reduction, 50% required reoperation compared to 17.5% of those with satisfactory reduction. This study highlights the key principles of ensuring adequate intraoperative reduction and fixation, in keeping with GIRFT principles. Avoiding secondary reoperation is crucial to prevent long-term negative outcomes for this typically high functional demand group of patients. We recommend regular, consultant peer review of post-operative imaging as a method of identifying substandard fracture fixations and those at risk of failure. This will allow opportunities for teaching, clinical improvement, and multidisciplinary team (MDT) discussions of at-risk patients., Competing Interests: Human subjects: Consent was obtained or waived by all participants in this study. North of Scotland Research Ethics Service issued approval NA. Research ethics was sought from the North of Scotland Research Ethics service. Using the HRA decision tool, it was deemed unnecessary and was classed by the NHS as a service evaluation. Animal subjects: All authors have confirmed that this study did not involve animal subjects or tissue. Conflicts of interest: In compliance with the ICMJE uniform disclosure form, all authors declare the following: Payment/services info: All authors have declared that no financial support was received from any organization for the submitted work. Financial relationships: All authors have declared that they have no financial relationships at present or within the previous three years with any organizations that might have an interest in the submitted work. Other relationships: All authors have declared that there are no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work., (Copyright © 2024, Whittaker et al.)