Search

This study sought to generate, evaluate, and recommend possible national policies for the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to implement to most effectively boost growth and investment in renewable energy technologies (RETs) through 2065 using Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). The novelty of this study stems in-part from the scarcity of RET modelling completed for specific West African countries rather than for broader regions. Market-based instruments were identified as the policy type most practical for DRC. From modelling the resulting energy systems for policy pathways involving a 16% RET subsidy, a 70% fossil fuel tax, and both in combination relative to no-policy baseline scenarios, the scenarios including the tax had the lowest net costs (USD304–306 B) and the highest proportion of RETs (above 90%). Additionally, despite the current reliance on hydropower to fulfil 98% of its energy needs, hydropower played a very minor role in all of a modelled scenarios (no future investment beyond residual capacity). Finally, a post-modelling market potential assessment was performed on the technology that dominated off-grid supply across policy pathways: a 0.3 kW small solar home system (SHS). Based on learning rates for solar photovoltaics (PV), demand for a small SHS in DRC (>160 million units in total) was found to be sufficient to substantially reduce the unit cost as deployment scales. Ultimately, this study yielded four recommendations for the DRC government: (1) Pursue financial incentives to catalyse DRC’s renewable energy supply. (2) Tax fossil fuel energy production. (3) Re-evaluate focus on hydropower. (4) Promote DRC as a healthy market for solar home systems.

Responding to the Paris Agreement and climate change mitigation, Indonesia aims to reach net zero by 2060 or sooner. Due to Indonesia’s dependence on coal and growing consumption, alternative sources of clean energy are imperative for meeting its rising energy needs and reducing energy-related greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the energy transition. This project aims to examine Indonesia’s opportunities and potential to achieve low carbon ambition in the energy sector and identify alternative pathways for the energy transition in Indonesia. In this study, the open-source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS), which is a long-term energy system modelling tool, is employed to compare electricity generation, investment, and carbon dioxide emissions between business-as-usual and five alternative scenarios. Six scenarios, including business as usual, least-cost, two coal-phrase out and two net zero aligned with national climate targets and optimal scenarios, were simulated across different target years. The results show that the net zero (NZ) scenario is more cost-effective and emits fewer greenhouse gases than the other scenarios in meeting Indonesia’s future energy demand. However, achieving net zero by 2050 (NZ50) results in significantly lower CO2 emissions (10,134 MtCO2), which is less than half of the emissions in the net zero by 2060 (NZ60) scenario (16,849 MtCO2) at a similar cost (6229 and 6177 billion USD, respectively). This paper’s insights emphasise that large-scale renewable energy deployment and coal retirement are critical pathways to reaching carbon neutrality and achieving the energy mix transition.

Integration of alternative technological concepts such as switching to alternative fuels, advanced energy efficiency, and carbon capture and storage in existing industrial energy systems can prove highly effective at minimizing emissions; however, their adoption is low since solutions using these concepts raise costs considerably. The hypothesis of this work is a hierarchical combination of these concepts can reduce mitigation cost. To this end a mixed method approach is applied combining energy simulation with a novel Mixed Integer Linear Programming model developed to explore 48 alternative solutions to make industrial energy systems more sustainable. The method was applied to the most common industrial energy systems configurations. Results show that the added cost of integrating alternative technological concepts are lowered when energy efficiency via direct heat recovery is explored first in an optimization-based hierarchy of options. The hierarchy is advanced energy efficiency before fuel and technology switching or integrating carbon capture and storage. This means process integration can pay for steeper reductions in carbon emissions. Integrating alternative technological concepts optimally and hierarchically reduced emissions by 61%, and costs by 55.7% compared to a partial integration for a heat-only business-as-usual industrial energy systems. Even though switching to an alternative fuel (blue hydrogen) reduces carbon emissions by 72%, costs increase by at least 3% compared to a system using fuel gas and fuel oil. A hierarchical integration of blue hydrogen reduces cost by 47% and carbon emissions by 88.7%. Partial integration of carbon capture and storage reduces carbon emissions by 36% but costs increase by 89%, with full integration using optimization and the hierarchy costs only increase by 6.3%. Therefore, the cost-effectiveness of integrating alternative technological concepts is highly influenced by the hierarchy which seeks to minimize demand for energy from industrial processes first, then increase the supply efficiency of industrial energy systems, and before switching to alternative fuels and technologies.