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3. Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought.

Author

Schumacher, Dominik L., Zachariah, Mariam, Otto, Friederike, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Heinrich, Dorothy, Arrighi, Julie, van Aalst, Maarten, Hauser, Mathias, Hirschi, Martin, Bessenbacher, Verena, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Beaudoing, Hiroko K., Rodell, Matthew, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, and Vecchi, Gabriel A.

Subjects
HUMAN fingerprints, SOIL moisture, GLOBAL warming, ATMOSPHERIC models, DROUGHTS, SOILS, HIGH temperatures
Abstract

In the 2022 summer, western–central Europe and several other regions in the northern extratropics experienced substantial soil moisture deficits in the wake of precipitation shortages and elevated temperatures. Much of Europe has not witnessed a more severe soil drought since at least the mid-20th century, raising the question whether this is a manifestation of our warming climate. Here, we employ a well-established statistical approach to attribute the low 2022 summer soil moisture to human-induced climate change using observation-driven soil moisture estimates and climate models. We find that in western–central Europe, a June–August root zone soil moisture drought such as in 2022 is expected to occur once in 20 years in the present climate but would have occurred only about once per century during preindustrial times. The entire northern extratropics show an even stronger global warming imprint with a 20-fold soil drought probability increase or higher, but we note that the underlying uncertainty is large. Reasons are manifold but include the lack of direct soil moisture observations at the required spatiotemporal scales, the limitations of remotely sensed estimates, and the resulting need to simulate soil moisture with land surface models driven by meteorological data. Nevertheless, observation-based products indicate long-term declining summer soil moisture for both regions, and this tendency is likely fueled by regional warming, while no clear trends emerge for precipitation. Finally, our climate model analysis suggests that under 2 ∘ C global warming, 2022-like soil drought conditions would become twice as likely for western–central Europe compared to today and would take place nearly every year across the northern extratropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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4. Introduction

Author

Boyer, Tim, primary, Bartow-Gillies, Ellen, additional, Abida, A., additional, Ades, Melanie, additional, Adler, Robert, additional, Adusumilli, Susheel, additional, Agyakwah, W., additional, Ahmasuk, Brandon, additional, Aldeco, Laura S., additional, Alexe, Mihai, additional, Alfaro, Eric J., additional, Allan, Richard P., additional, Allgood, Adam, additional, Alves, Lincoln. M., additional, Amador, Jorge A., additional, Anderson, John, additional, Andrade, B., additional, Anneville, Orlane, additional, Aono, Yasuyuki, additional, Arguez, Anthony, additional, Arosio, Carlo, additional, Atkinson, C., additional, Augustine, John A., additional, Avalos, Grinia, additional, Azorin-Molina, Cesar, additional, Backensto, Stacia A., additional, Bader, Stephan, additional, Baez, Julian, additional, Baiman, Rebecca, additional, Ballinger, Thomas J., additional, Banwell, Alison F., additional, Bardin, M. Yu, additional, Barichivich, Jonathan, additional, Barnes, John E., additional, Barreira, Sandra, additional, Beadling, Rebecca L., additional, Beck, Hylke E., additional, Becker, Emily J., additional, Bekele, E., additional, Bellido, Guillem Martín, additional, Bellouin, Nicolas, additional, Benedetti, Angela, additional, Benestad, Rasmus, additional, Berne, Christine, additional, Berner, Logan. T., additional, Bernhard, Germar H., additional, Bhatt, Uma S., additional, Bhuiyan, A. E., additional, Bigalke, Siiri, additional, Biló, Tiago, additional, Bissolli, Peter, additional, Bjerke Jarle, W., additional, Blagrave, Kevin, additional, Blake, Eric S., additional, Blenkinsop, Stephen, additional, Blunden, Jessica, additional, Bochníček, Oliver, additional, Bock, Olivier, additional, Bodenstein, Barbara, additional, Bodin, Xavier, additional, Bosilovich, Michael, additional, Boucher, Olivier, additional, Bozkurt, Deniz, additional, Brettschneider, Brian, additional, Bringas, Francis G., additional, Bringas, Francis, additional, Buechler, Dennis, additional, Buehler, Stefan A., additional, Bukunt, Brandon, additional, Calderón, Blanca, additional, Camargo, Suzana J., additional, Campbell, Jayaka, additional, Campos, Diego, additional, Carrea, Laura, additional, Carter, Brendan R., additional, Cetinić, Ivona, additional, Chambers, Don P., additional, Chan, Duo, additional, Chandler, Elise, additional, Chang, Kai-Lan, additional, Chen, Hua, additional, Chen, Lin, additional, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Cheng, Vincent Y. S., additional, Chomiak, Leah, additional, Christiansen, Hanne H., additional, Christy, John R., additional, Chung, Eui-Seok, additional, Ciasto, Laura M., additional, Clarke, Leonardo, additional, Clem, Kyle R., additional, Clingan, Scott, additional, Coelho, Caio A.S., additional, Cohen, Judah L., additional, Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, additional, Colwell, Steve, additional, Cooper, Owen R., additional, Cornes, Richard C., additional, Correa, Kris, additional, Costa, Felipe, additional, Covey, Curt, additional, Coy, Lawrence, additional, Créatux, Jean-François, additional, Crhova, Lenka, additional, Crimmins, Theresa, additional, Cronin, Meghan F., additional, Cropper, Thomas, additional, Crotwell, Molly, additional, Culpepper, Joshua, additional, Cunha, Ana P., additional, Cusicanqui, Diego, additional, Datta, Rajashree T., additional, Davis, Sean M., additional, De Bock, Veerle, additional, de Jeu, Richard A. M., additional, De Laat, Jos, additional, Decharme, Bertrand, additional, Degenstein, Doug, additional, Delaloye, Reynald, additional, Demircan, Mesut, additional, Derksen, Chris, additional, Deus, Ricardo, additional, Dhurmea, K. R., additional, Diamond, Howard J., additional, Dirkse, S., additional, Divine, Dmitry, additional, Dokulil, Martin T., additional, Donat, Markus G., additional, Dong, Shenfu, additional, Dorigo, Wouter A., additional, Drost Jensen, Caroline, additional, Druckenmiller, Matthew L., additional, Drumond, Paula, additional, du Plessis, Marcel, additional, Dugan, Hilary A., additional, Dulamsuren, Dashkhuu, additional, Dunmire, Devon, additional, Dunn, Robert J. H., additional, Durre, Imke, additional, Dusek, Robert, additional, Dutton, Geoff, additional, Duveiller, Gregory, additional, Ekici, Mithat, additional, Elias Chereque, Alesksandra, additional, ElKharrim, M., additional, Epstein, Howard E., additional, Espinoza, Jhan-Carlo, additional, Estilow, Thomas W., additional, Estrella, Nicole, additional, Fauchereau, Nicolas, additional, Fausto, Robert S., additional, Feely, Richard A., additional, Fenimore, Chris, additional, Fereday, David, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Fioletov, vitali E., additional, Flemming, Johannes, additional, Fogarty, Chris, additional, Fogt, Ryan L., additional, Forbes, Bruce C., additional, Foster, Michael J., additional, Franz, Bryan A., additional, Freeman, Natalie M., additional, Fricker, Helen A., additional, Frith, Stacey M., additional, Froidevaux, Lucien, additional, Frost, Gerald V. (JJ), additional, Fuhrman, Steven, additional, Füllekrug, Martin, additional, Ganter, Catherine, additional, Gao, Meng, additional, Gardner, Alex S., additional, Garforth, Judith, additional, Garg, Jay, additional, Gerland, Sebastian, additional, Gibbes, Badin, additional, Gille, Sarah T., additional, Gilson, John, additional, Gleason, Karin, additional, Gobron, Nadine, additional, Goetz, Scott J., additional, Goldenberg, Stanley B., additional, Goni, Gustavo, additional, Goodman, Steven, additional, Goto, Atsushi, additional, Grooß, Jens-Uwe, additional, Gruber, Alexander, additional, Gu, Guojun, additional, Guard, Charles “Chip” P., additional, Hagos, S., additional, Hahn, Sebastian, additional, Haimberger, Leopold, additional, Hall, Bradley D., additional, Hamlington, Benjamin D., additional, Hanna, Edward, additional, Hanssen-Bauer, Inger, additional, Harnos, Daniel S., additional, Harris, Ian, additional, He, Qiong, additional, Heim, Richard R., additional, Hellström, Sverker, additional, Hemming, Deborah L., additional, Hendricks, Stefan, additional, Hicks, J., additional, Hidalgo, Hugo G., additional, Hirschi, Martin, additional, Ho, Shu-peng (Ben), additional, Hobbs, W., additional, Holmes, Robert M., additional, Holzworth, Robert, additional, Hrbáček, Filip, additional, Hu, Guojie, additional, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, additional, Huang, Boyin, additional, Huang, Hongjie, additional, Hurst, Dale F., additional, Ialongo, Iolanda, additional, Inness, Antje, additional, Isaksen, Ketil, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Jadra, Gerardo, additional, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, additional, John, Viju O., additional, Johns, W., additional, Johnsen, Bjørn, additional, Johnson, Bryan, additional, Johnson, Gregory C., additional, Jones, Philip D., additional, Jones, Timothy, additional, Josey, Simon A., additional, Jumaux, G., additional, Junod, Robert, additional, Kääb, Andreas, additional, Kabidi, K., additional, Kaiser, Johannes W., additional, Kaler, Robb S.A., additional, Kaleschke, Lars, additional, Kaufmann, Viktor, additional, Kazemi, Amin Fazl, additional, Keller, Linda M., additional, Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas, additional, Kendon, Mike, additional, Kennedy, John, additional, Kent, Elizabeth C., additional, Kerr, Kenneth, additional, Khan, Valentina, additional, Khiem, Mai Van, additional, Kidd, Richard, additional, Kim, Mi Ju, additional, Kim, Seong-Joong, additional, Kipling, Zak, additional, Klotzbach, Philip J., additional, Knaff, John A., additional, Koppa, Akash, additional, Korshunova, Natalia N., additional, Kraemer, Benjamin M., additional, Kramarova, Natalya A., additional, Kruger, A. C., additional, Kruger, Andries, additional, Kumar, Arun, additional, L’Heureux, Michelle, additional, La Fuente, Sofia, additional, Laas, Alo, additional, Labe, Zachary M., additional, Lader, Rick, additional, Lakatos, Mónika, additional, Lakkala, Kaisa, additional, Lam, Hoang Phuc, additional, Lan, Xin, additional, Landschützer, Peter, additional, Landsea, Chris W., additional, Lang, Timothy, additional, Lankhorst, Matthias, additional, Lantz, Kathleen O., additional, Lara, Mark J., additional, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, additional, Lavers, David A., additional, Lazzara, Matthew A., additional, Leblanc, Thierry, additional, Lee, Tsz-Cheung, additional, Leibensperger, Eric M., additional, Lennard, Chris, additional, Leuliette, Eric, additional, Leung, Kinson H. Y., additional, Lieser, Jan L., additional, Likso, Tanja, additional, Lin, I-I., additional, Lindsey, Jackie, additional, Liu, Yakun, additional, Locarnini, Ricardo, additional, Loeb, Norman G., additional, Loomis, Bryant D., additional, Lorrey, Andrew M., additional, Loyola, Diego, additional, Lu, Rui, additional, Lumpkin, Rick, additional, Luo, Jing-Jia, additional, Luojus, Kari, additional, Lyman, John M., additional, Maberly, Stephen C., additional, Macander, Matthew J., additional, MacFerrin, Michael, additional, MacGilchrist, Graeme A., additional, MacLennan, Michelle L., additional, Madelon, Remi, additional, Magee, Andrew D., additional, Magnin, Florence, additional, Mamen, Jostein, additional, Mankoff, Ken D., additional, Manney, Gloria L., additional, Marcinonienė, Izolda, additional, Marengo, Jose A., additional, Marjan, Mohammadi, additional, Martínez, Ana E., additional, Massom, Robert A., additional, Matsuzaki, Shin-Ichiro, additional, May, Linda, additional, Mayer, Michael, additional, Mazloff, Matthew R., additional, McAfee, Stephanie A., additional, McBride, C., additional, McCabe, Matthew F., additional, McClelland, James W., additional, McPhaden, Michael J., additional, Mcvicar, Tim R., additional, Mears, Carl A., additional, Meier, Walter N., additional, Mekonnen, A., additional, Menzel, Annette, additional, Merchant, Christopher J., additional, Merrifield, Mark A., additional, Meyer, Michael F., additional, Meyers, Tristan, additional, Mikolajczyk, David E., additional, Miller, John B., additional, Miralles, Diego G., additional, Misevicius, Noelia, additional, Mishonov, Alexey, additional, Mitchum, Gary T., additional, Moat, Ben I., additional, Moesinger, Leander, additional, Moise, Aurel, additional, Molina-Carpio, Jorge, additional, Monet, Ghislaine, additional, Montzka, Stephan A., additional, Moon, Twila A., additional, Moore, G. W. K., additional, Mora, Natali, additional, Morán, Johnny, additional, Morehen, Claire, additional, Morice, Colin, additional, Mostafa, A. E., additional, Mote, Thomas L., additional, Mrekaj, Ivan, additional, Mudryk, Lawrence, additional, Mühle, Jens, additional, Müller, Rolf, additional, Nance, David, additional, Nash, Eric R., additional, Nerem, R. Steven, additional, Newman, Paul A., additional, Nicolas, Julien P., additional, Nieto, Juan J., additional, Noetzli, Jeannette, additional, Noll, Ben, additional, Norton, Taylor, additional, Nyland, Kelsey E., additional, O’Keefe, John, additional, Ochwat, Naomi, additional, Oikawa, Yoshinori, additional, Okunaka, Yuka, additional, Osborn, Timothy J., additional, Overland, James E., additional, Park, Taejin, additional, Parrington, Mark, additional, Parrish, Julia K., additional, Pasch, Richard J., additional, Pascual Ramírez, Reynaldo, additional, Pellet, Cécile, additional, Pelto, Mauri S., additional, Perčec Tadić, Melita, additional, Perovich, Donald K., additional, Petersen, Guðrún Nína, additional, Petersen, Kyle, additional, Petropavlovskikh, Irina, additional, Petty, Alek, additional, Pezza, Alexandre B., additional, Pezzi, Luciano P., additional, Phillips, Coda, additional, Phoenix, Gareth K., additional, Pierson, Don, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Pires, Vanda, additional, Pitts, Michael, additional, Po-Chedley, Stephen, additional, Pogliotti, Paolo, additional, Poinar, Kristin, additional, Polvani, Lorenzo, additional, Preimesberger, Wolfgang, additional, Price, Colin, additional, Pulkkanen, Merja, additional, Purkey, Sarah G., additional, Qiu, Bo, additional, Quisbert, Kenny, additional, Quispe, Willy R., additional, Rajeevan, M., additional, Ramos, Andrea M., additional, Randel, William J., additional, Rantanen, Mika, additional, Raphael, Marilyn N., additional, Reagan, James, additional, Recalde, Cristina, additional, Reid, Phillip, additional, Rémy, Samuel, additional, Reyes Kohler, Alejandra J., additional, Ricciardulli, Lucrezia, additional, Richardson, Andrew D., additional, Ricker, Robert, additional, Robinson, David A., additional, Robjhon, M., additional, Rocha, Willy, additional, Rodell, Matthew, additional, Rodriguez Guisado, Esteban, additional, Rodriguez-Fernandez, Nemesio, additional, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., additional, Ronchail, Josyane, additional, Rosencrans, Matthew, additional, Rosenlof, Karen H., additional, Rösner, Benjamin, additional, Rösner, Henrieke, additional, Rozanov, Alexei, additional, Rozkošný, Jozef, additional, Rubek, Frans, additional, Rusanovskaya, Olga O., additional, Rutishauser, This, additional, Sabeerali, C. T., additional, Salinas, Roberto, additional, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, additional, Santee, Michelle L., additional, Santini, Marcelo, additional, Sato, Katsunari, additional, Sawaengphokhai, Parnchai, additional, Sayouri, A., additional, Scambos, Theodore, additional, Schenzinger, Verena, additional, Schimanke, Semjon, additional, Schlegel, Robert W., additional, Schmid, Claudia, additional, Schmid, Martin, additional, Schneider, Udo, additional, Schreck, Carl J., additional, Schultz, Cristina, additional, _, _, additional, Segele, Z. T., additional, Sensoy, Serhat, additional, Serbin, Shawn P., additional, Serreze, Mark C., additional, Setiawan, Amsari Mudzakir, additional, Sezaki, Fumi, additional, Sharma, Sapna, additional, Sharp, Jonathan D., additional, Sheffield, Gay, additional, Shi, Jia-Rui, additional, Shi, Lei, additional, Shiklomanov, Alexander I., additional, Shiklomanov, Nikolay I., additional, Shimaraeva, Svetlana V., additional, Shukla, R., additional, Siegel, David A., additional, Silow, Eugene A., additional, Sima, F., additional, Simmons, Adrian J., additional, Smeed, David A., additional, Smith, Adam, additional, Smith, Matthew M., additional, Smith, Sharon L., additional, Soden, Brian J., additional, Sofieva, Viktoria, additional, Souza, Everaldo, additional, Sparks, Tim H., additional, Spence-Hemmings, Jacqueline, additional, Spencer, Robert G. M., additional, Spillane, Sandra, additional, Sreejith, O. P., additional, Srivastava, A. K., additional, Stackhouse, Paul W., additional, Stammerjohn, Sharon, additional, Stauffer, Ryan, additional, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, additional, Steiner, Andrea K., additional, Stella, Jose L., additional, Stephenson, Tannecia S., additional, Stradiotti, Pietro, additional, Strahan, Susan E., additional, Streletskiy, Dmitry A., additional, Surendran, Divya E., additional, Suslova, Anya, additional, Svendby, Tove, additional, Sweet, William, additional, Takahashi, Kiyotoshi, additional, Takemura, Kazuto, additional, Tank, Suzanne E., additional, Taylor, Michael A., additional, Tedesco, Marco, additional, Thackeray, Stephen J., additional, Thiaw, W. M., additional, Thibert, Emmanuel, additional, Thoman, Richard L., additional, Thompson, Andrew F., additional, Thompson, Philip R., additional, Tian-Kunze, Xiangshan, additional, Timmermans, Mary-Louise, additional, Timofeyev, Maxim A., additional, Tobin, Skie, additional, Tømmervik, Hans, additional, Tourpali, Kleareti, additional, Trescilo, Lidia, additional, Tretiakov, Mikhail, additional, Trewin, Blair C., additional, Triñanes, Joaquin A., additional, Trotman, Adrian, additional, Truchelut, Ryan E., additional, Trusel, Luke D., additional, Tye, Mari R., additional, van der A, Ronald, additional, van der Schalie, Robin, additional, van der Schrier, Gerard, additional, Van Hemert, Caroline, additional, Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., additional, van vliet, Arnold J.H., additional, Vazife, Ahad, additional, Verburg, Piet, additional, Vernier, Jean-Paul, additional, Vimont, Isaac J., additional, Virts, Katrina, additional, Vivero, Sebastián, additional, Volkov, Denis L., additional, Vömel, Holger, additional, Vose, Russell S., additional, Walker, Donald (Skip) A., additional, Walsh, John E., additional, Wang, Bin, additional, Wang, Hui, additional, Wang, Muyin, additional, Wang, Ray H. J., additional, Wang, Xinyue, additional, Wanninkhof, Rik, additional, Warnock, Taran, additional, Weber, Mark, additional, Webster, Melinda, additional, Wehrlé, Adrian, additional, Wen, Caihong, additional, Westberry, Toby K., additional, Widlansky, Matthew J., additional, Wiese, David N., additional, Wild, Jeannette D., additional, Wille, Jonathan D., additional, Willems, An, additional, Willett, Kate M., additional, Williams, Earle, additional, Willis, J., additional, Wong, Takmeng, additional, Wood, Kimberly M., additional, Woolway, Richard Iestyn, additional, Xie, Ping-Ping, additional, Yang, Daqing, additional, Yin, Xungang, additional, Yin, Ziqi, additional, Zeng, Zhenzhong, additional, Zhang, Huai-min, additional, Zhang, Li, additional, Zhang, Peiqun, additional, Zhao, Lin, additional, Zhou, Xinjia, additional, Zhu, Zhiwei, additional, Ziemke, Jerry R., additional, Ziese, Markus, additional, Zolkos, Scott, additional, Zotta, Ruxandra M., additional, Zou, Cheng-Zhi, additional, Allen, Jessicca, additional, Camper, Amy V., additional, Haley, Bridgette O., additional, Hammer, Gregory, additional, Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, additional, Ohlmann, Laura, additional, Noguchi, Lukas, additional, Riddle, Deborah B., additional, and Veasey, Sara W., additional

Published
2023
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5. Global Climate

Author

Dunn, Robert J. H., primary, Miller, John B., additional, Willett, Kate M., additional, Gobron, Nadine, additional, Ades, Melanie, additional, Adler, Robert, additional, Alexe, Mihai, additional, Allan, Richard P., additional, Anderson, John, additional, Anneville, Orlane, additional, Aono, Yasuyuki, additional, Arguez, Anthony, additional, Arosio, Carlo, additional, Augustine, John A., additional, Azorin-Molina, Cesar, additional, Barichivich, Jonathan, additional, Barnes, John E., additional, Beck, Hylke E., additional, Bellouin, Nicolas, additional, Benedetti, Angela, additional, Blagrave, Kevin, additional, Blenkinsop, Stephen, additional, Bock, Olivier, additional, Bodin, Xavier, additional, Bosilovich, Michael, additional, Boucher, Olivier, additional, Buechler, Dennis, additional, Buehler, Stefan A., additional, Campos, Diego, additional, Carrea, Laura, additional, Chang, Kai-Lan, additional, Christiansen, Hanne H., additional, Christy, John R., additional, Chung, Eui-Seok, additional, Ciasto, Laura M., additional, Clingan, Scott, additional, Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, additional, Cooper, Owen R., additional, Cornes, Richard C., additional, Covey, Curt, additional, Créatux, Jean-François, additional, Crimmins, Theresa, additional, Cropper, Thomas, additional, Crotwell, Molly, additional, Culpepper, Joshua, additional, Cusicanqui, Diego, additional, Davis, Sean M., additional, de Jeu, Richard A. M., additional, Degenstein, Doug, additional, Delaloye, Reynald, additional, Dokulil, Martin T., additional, Donat, Markus G., additional, Dorigo, Wouter A., additional, Dugan, Hilary A., additional, Durre, Imke, additional, Dutton, Geoff, additional, Duveiller, Gregory, additional, Estilow, Thomas W., additional, Estrella, Nicole, additional, Fereday, David, additional, Fioletov, Vitali E., additional, Flemming, Johannes, additional, Foster, Michael J., additional, Franz, Bryan, additional, Frith, Stacey M., additional, Froidevaux, Lucien, additional, Füllekrug, Martin, additional, Garforth, Judith, additional, Garg, Jay, additional, Gibbes, Badin, additional, Goodman, Steven, additional, Goto, Atsushi, additional, Gruber, Alexander, additional, Gu, Guojun, additional, Hahn, Sebastian, additional, Haimberger, Leopold, additional, Hall, Bradley D., additional, Harris, Ian, additional, Hemming, Deborah L., additional, Hirschi, Martin, additional, Ho, Shu-peng, additional, Holzworth, Robert, additional, Hrbáček, Filip, additional, Hu, Guojie, additional, Hurst, Dale F., additional, Inness, Antje, additional, Isaksen, Ketil, additional, John, Viju O., additional, Jones, Philip D., additional, Junod, Robert, additional, Kääb, Andreas, additional, Kaiser, Johannes W., additional, Kaufmann, Viktor, additional, Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas, additional, Kent, Elizabeth C., additional, Kidd, Richard, additional, Kipling, Zak, additional, Koppa, Akash, additional, Kraemer, Benjamin M., additional, Kramarova, Natalya, additional, Kruger, Andries, additional, La Fuente, Sofia, additional, Laas, Alo, additional, Lan, Xin, additional, Lang, Timothy, additional, Lantz, Kathleen O., additional, Lavers, David A., additional, Leblanc, Thierry, additional, Leibensperger, Eric M., additional, Lennard, Chris, additional, Liu, Yakun, additional, Loeb, Norman G., additional, Loyola, Diego, additional, Maberly, Stephen C., additional, Madelon, Remi, additional, Magnin, Florence, additional, Matsuzaki, Shin-Ichiro, additional, May, Linda, additional, Mayer, Michael, additional, McCabe, Matthew F., additional, McVicar, Tim R., additional, Mears, Carl A., additional, Menzel, Annette, additional, Merchant, Christopher J., additional, Meyer, Michael F., additional, Miralles, Diego G., additional, Moesinger, Leander, additional, Monet, Ghislaine, additional, Montzka, Stephan A., additional, Morice, Colin, additional, Mrekaj, Ivan, additional, Mühle, Jens, additional, Nance, David, additional, Nicolas, Julien P., additional, Noetzli, Jeannette, additional, Noll, Ben, additional, O’Keefe, John, additional, Osborn, Timothy J., additional, Park, Taejin, additional, Parrington, Mark, additional, Pellet, Cécile, additional, Pelto, Mauri S., additional, Petersen, Kyle, additional, Phillips, Coda, additional, Pierson, Don, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Po-Chedley, Stephen, additional, Pogliotti, Paolo, additional, Polvani, Lorenzo, additional, Preimesberger, Wolfgang, additional, Price, Colin, additional, Pulkkanen, Merja, additional, Randel, William J., additional, Rémy, Samuel, additional, Ricciardulli, Lucrezia, additional, Richardson, Andrew D., additional, Robinson, David A., additional, Rocha, Willy, additional, Rodell, Matthew, additional, Rodriguez-Fernandez, Nemesio, additional, Rosenlof, Karen H., additional, Rozanov, Alexei, additional, Rozkošný, Jozef, additional, Rusanovskaya, Olga O., additional, Rutishauser, This, additional, Sabeerali, C. T., additional, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, additional, Sawaengphokhai, Parnchai, additional, Schenzinger, Verena, additional, Schlegel, Robert W., additional, Schmid, Martin, additional, Schneider, Udo, additional, Sezaki, Fumi, additional, Sharma, Sapna, additional, Shi, Lei, additional, Shimaraeva, Svetlana V., additional, Silow, Eugene A., additional, Simmons, Adrian J., additional, Smith, Sharon L., additional, Soden, Brian J., additional, Sofieva, Viktoria, additional, Sparks, Tim H., additional, Sreejith, O.P., additional, Stackhouse, Paul W., additional, Stauffer, Ryan, additional, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, additional, Steiner, Andrea K., additional, Stradiotti, Pietro, additional, Streletskiy, Dmitry A., additional, Surendran, Divya E., additional, Thackeray, Stephen J., additional, Thibert, Emmanuel, additional, Timofeyev, Maxim A., additional, Tourpali, Kleareti, additional, Tye, Mari R., additional, van der A, Ronald, additional, van der Schalie, Robin, additional, van der Schrier, Gerard, additional, van Vliet, Arnold J.H., additional, Verburg, Piet, additional, Vernier, Jean-Paul, additional, Vimont, Isaac J., additional, Virts, Katrina, additional, Vivero, Sebastián, additional, Vömel, Holger, additional, Vose, Russell S., additional, Wang, Ray H. J., additional, Wang, Xinyue, additional, Warnock, Taran, additional, Weber, Mark, additional, Wiese, David N., additional, Wild, Jeannette D., additional, Williams, Earle, additional, Wong, Takmeng, additional, Woolway, Richard Iestyn, additional, Yin, Xungang, additional, Zeng, Zhenzhong, additional, Zhao, Lin, additional, Zhou, Xinjia, additional, Ziemke, Jerry R., additional, Ziese, Markus, additional, Zotta, Ruxandra M., additional, Zou, Cheng-Zhi, additional, Allen, Jessicca, additional, Camper, Amy V., additional, Haley, Bridgette O., additional, Hammer, Gregory, additional, Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, additional, Ohlmann, Laura, additional, Noguchi, Lukas, additional, Riddle, Deborah B., additional, and Veasey, Sara W., additional

Published
2023
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6. Supplementary material to "Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 West-Central European soil drought"

Author

Schumacher, Dominik L., primary, Zachariah, Mariam, additional, Otto, Friederike, additional, Barnes, Clair, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Vahlberg, Maja, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Heinrich, Dorothy, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Hauser, Mathias, additional, Hirschi, Martin, additional, Bessenbacher, Verena, additional, Gudmundsson, Lukas, additional, Beaudoing, Hiroko K., additional, Rodell, Matthew, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Vecchi, Gabriel A., additional, Harrington, Luke J., additional, Lehner, Flavio, additional, Balsamo, Gianpaolo, additional, and Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional

Published
2023
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7. Characterising recent drought events in the context of dry-season trends using state-of-the-art reanalysis and remote-sensing soil moisture products.

Author

Hirschi, Martin, Crezee, Bas, Stradiotti, Pietro, Dorigo, Wouter, and Seneviratne, Sonia I.

Subjects
SOIL moisture, DROUGHTS, SCIENTIFIC literature, ATMOSPHERIC temperature, SURFACE temperature, AIR shows
Abstract

Drought events have multiple adverse impacts on environment, society, and economy. It is thus crucial to monitor and characterise such events. Here, we compare the ability of selected state-of-the-art long-term reanalysis and remote-sensing products to represent major seasonal and multi-year drought events in the 2000–2020 period globally. We focus on soil moisture (or agroecological) drought and place the results in the context of trends in dry-season soil moisture. We consider surface and root-zone soil moisture from ERA5, the related ERA5-Land, and MERRA-2 reanalysis products, the ESA CCI remote-sensing surface soil moisture products (encompassing an ACTIVE, a PASSIVE and a COMBINED product), as well as its near real-time counterpart produced within C3S. In addition, we use a new root-zone soil moisture dataset derived from the ESA CCI COMBINED product. Except for ESA CCI surface and root-zone soil moisture, the considered products offer opportunities for drought monitoring since they are available in near real-time. We analyse 18 documented drought events within predefined spatial and temporal bounds derived from scientific literature. Based on standardised daily anomalies of surface and root-zone soil moisture, the drought events are characterised by their severity (the time accumulated standardised anomalies), magnitude (the minimum of the standardised anomalies over time), duration, and spatial extent. Product deviations in drought severity and magnitude are then placed in the context of trends in dry-season soil moisture, and potential reasons for diverging global soil moisture trends in the products are further investigated. All investigated products capture the considered drought events. Overall, responses of surface soil moisture tend to be weakest for the ACTIVE remote-sensing products in all metrics, but most pronounced in the drought magnitudes. Also, MERRA‑2 shows lower magnitudes than the other products. Except for the COMBINED products, the remote-sensing products tend to underestimate the spatial extents of larger droughts. Product differences in drought severity and magnitude for single events are consistent with the differences in dry-season soil moisture trends. These trends are globally diverse and partly contradictory between products. ERA5, ERA5-Land and the COMBINED products show larger fractions of drying trends, MERRA-2 and the C3S ACTIVE and PASSIVE products more widespread wetting trends. MERRA-2 surface air temperature shows regionally negative biases in trends compared to a ground observational product, which suggests that this reanalysis product underestimates drought trends. Also, the comparison with trends in selected land-surface characteristics and bioclimatic indicators shows that dry-season soil moisture trends may be affected by retrieval or modelling artifacts in some cases. In the root zone (based on the reanalysis products and the ESA CCI root-zone soil moisture dataset), the droughts are dampened in magnitude and smaller in spatial extent but show a tendency to prolonged durations. Based on the overall observational evidence and the consideration of the respective limitations of the included products, the present analyses suggest a consistent tendency towards drying during the last two decades in some regions, namely in parts of central Europe, in a region north of the Black Sea/Caspian Sea, in southern Africa, and in parts of Australia, Siberia and South America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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9. ESA CCI and C3S Soil Moisture - New developments and recent applications

Author

Preimesberger, Wolfgang, primary, Stradiotti, Pietro, additional, Madelon, Remi, additional, van der Schalie, Robin, additional, Rodriguez-Fernandez, Nemesio, additional, Hirschi, Martin, additional, Pasik, Adam, additional, Gruber, Alexander, additional, Dorigo, Wouter, additional, de Jeu, Richard, additional, Kidd, Richard, additional, and Albergel, Clement, additional

Published
2023
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13. Global Climate:STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2021

Author

Ades, Melanie, Adler, Robert, Aldred, Freya, Allan, R. P., Anderson, John, Anneville, Orlane, Aono, Yasuyuki, Argüez, Anthony, Arosio, Carlo, Augustine, John A., Azorin-Molina, Cesar, Barichivich, Jonathan, Basu, Aman, Beck, Hylke E., Bellouin, Nicolas, Benedetti, Angela, Blagrave, Kevin, Blenkinsop, Stephen, Bock, Olivier, Bodin, Xavier, Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Bove, Gerald, Buechler, Dennis, Buehler, Stefan A., Carrea, Laura, Chang, Kai Lan, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, Eui Seok, Ciasto, Laura M., Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, Cooper, Owen R., Cornes, Richard C., Covey, Curt, Cropper, Thomas, Crotwell, Molly, Cusicanqui, Diego, Davis, Sean M., de Jeu, Richard A.M., Degenstein, Doug, Delaloye, Reynald, Donat, Markus G., Dorigo, Wouter A., Dunn, Robert J.H., Durre, Imke, Dutton, Geoff S., Duveiller, Gregory, Elkins, James W., Estilow, Thomas W., Fedaeff, Nava, Fereday, David, Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Foster, Michael J., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Füllekrug, Martin, Garforth, Judith, Garg, Jay, Gentry, Matthew, Gobron, Nadine, Goodman, Steven, Gou, Qiqi, Granin, Nikolay, Guglielmin, Mauro, Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leopold, Hall, Brad D., Harris, Ian, Hemming, Debbie L., Hirschi, Martin, Ho, Shu Pen, Holzworth, Robert, Hrbáček, Filip, Hubert, Daan, Hulsman, Petra, Hurst, Dale F., Inness, Antje, Isaksen, Ketil, John, Viju O., Jones, Philip D., Junod, Robert, Kääb, Andreas, Kaiser, Johannes W., Kaufmann, Viktor, Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas, Kent, Elizabeth C., Kidd, Richard, Kim, Hyungiun, Kipling, Zak, Koppa, Akash, L'Abée-Lund, Jan Henning, Lan, Xin, Lantz, Kathleen O., Lavers, David, Loeb, Norman G., Loyola, Diego, Madelon, Remi, Malmquist, Hilmar J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Mayer, Michael, McCabe, Matthew F., McVicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl A., Menzel, Annette, Merchant, Christopher J., Miller, John B., Miralles, Diego G., Montzka, Stephen A., Morice, Colin, Mösinger, Leander, Mühle, Jens, Nicolas, Julien P., Noetzli, Jeannette, Nõges, Tiina, Noll, Ben, O'Keefe, John, Osborn, Tim J., Park, Taejin, Pellet, Cecile, Pelto, Maury S., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Phillips, Coda, Po-Chedley, Stephen, Polvani, Lorenzo, Preimesberger, Wolfgang, Price, Colin, Pulkkanen, Merja, Rains, Dominik G., Randel, William J., Rémy, Samuel, Ricciardulli, Lucrezia, Richardson, Andrew D., Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rodríguez-Fernández, Nemesio J., Rosenlof, Karen H., Roth, Chris, Rozanov, Alexei, Rutishäuser, This, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, Sawaengphokhai, Parnchai, Schenzinger, Verena, Schlegel, Robert W., Schneider, Udo, Sharma, Sapna, Shi, Lei, Simmons, Adrian J., Siso, Carolina, Smith, Sharon L., Soden, Brian J., Sofieva, Viktoria, Sparks, Tim H., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stauffer, Ryan, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Steiner, Andrea K., Stewart, Kenton, Stradiotti, Pietro, Streletskiy, Dimitri A., Telg, Hagen, Thackeray, Stephen J., Thibert, Emmanuel, Todt, Michael, Tokuda, Daisuke, Tourpali, Kleareti, Tye, Mari R., Van Der, A. Ronald, van der Schalie, Robin, van der Schrier, Gerard, van der Vliet, Mendy, van der Werf, Guido R., van Vliet, Arnold, Vernier, Jean Paul, Vimont, Isaac J., Virts, Katrina, Vivero, Sebastiàn, Vömel, Holger, Vose, Russell S., Wang, Ray H.J., Weber, Markus, Wiese, David, Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Williams, Earle, Wong, Takmeng, Woolway, R. I., Yin, Xungang, Yuan, Ye, Zhao, Lin, Zhou, Xinjia, Ziemke, Jerry R., Ziese, Markus, Zotta, Ruxandra M., Allen, Jessicca, Camper, Amy, Hammer, Gregory, Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, Misch, Deborah J., Ohlmann, Laura, Riddle, Deborah B., Veasey, Sara W., Earth and Climate, Earth Sciences, and Amsterdam Sustainability Institute

Published
2022

14. Global Climate

Author

Dunn, Robert J. H., primary, Aldred, Freya, additional, Gobron, Nadine, additional, Miller, John B., additional, Willett, Kate M., additional, Ades, Melanie, additional, Adler, Robert, additional, Allan, R. P., additional, Anderson, John, additional, Anneville, Orlane, additional, Aono, Yasuyuki, additional, Argüez, Anthony, additional, Arosio, Carlo, additional, Augustine, John A., additional, Azorin-Molina, Cesar, additional, Barichivich, Jonathan, additional, Basu, Aman, additional, Beck, Hylke E., additional, Bellouin, Nicolas, additional, Benedetti, Angela, additional, Blagrave, Kevin, additional, Blenkinsop, Stephen, additional, Bock, Olivier, additional, Bodin, Xavier, additional, Bosilovich, Michael G., additional, Boucher, Olivier, additional, Bove, Gerald, additional, Buechler, Dennis, additional, Buehler, Stefan A., additional, Carrea, Laura, additional, Chang, Kai-Lan, additional, Christiansen, Hanne H., additional, Christy, John R., additional, Chung, Eui-Seok, additional, Ciasto, Laura M., additional, Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, additional, Cooper, Owen R., additional, Cornes, Richard C., additional, Covey, Curt, additional, Cropper, Thomas, additional, Crotwell, Molly, additional, Cusicanqui, Diego, additional, Davis, Sean M., additional, de Jeu, Richard A. M., additional, Degenstein, Doug, additional, Delaloye, Reynald, additional, Donat, Markus G., additional, Dorigo, Wouter A., additional, Durre, Imke, additional, Dutton, Geoff S., additional, Duveiller, Gregory, additional, Elkins, James W., additional, Estilow, Thomas W., additional, Fedaeff, Nava, additional, Fereday, David, additional, Fioletov, Vitali E., additional, Flemming, Johannes, additional, Foster, Michael J., additional, Frith, Stacey M., additional, Froidevaux, Lucien, additional, Füllekrug, Martin, additional, Garforth, Judith, additional, Garg, Jay, additional, Gentry, Matthew, additional, Goodman, Steven, additional, Gou, Qiqi, additional, Granin, Nikolay, additional, Guglielmin, Mauro, additional, Hahn, Sebastian, additional, Haimberger, Leopold, additional, Hall, Brad D., additional, Harris, Ian, additional, Hemming, Debbie L., additional, Hirschi, Martin, additional, Ho, Shu-pen (Ben), additional, Holzworth, Robert, additional, Hrbáček, Filip, additional, Hubert, Daan, additional, Hulsman, Petra, additional, Hurst, Dale F., additional, Inness, Antje, additional, Isaksen, Ketil, additional, John, Viju O., additional, Jones, Philip D., additional, Junod, Robert, additional, Kääb, Andreas, additional, Kaiser, Johannes W., additional, Kaufmann, Viktor, additional, Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas, additional, Kent, Elizabeth C., additional, Kidd, Richard, additional, Kim, Hyungiun, additional, Kipling, Zak, additional, Koppa, Akash, additional, L’Abée-Lund, Jan Henning, additional, Lan, Xin, additional, Lantz, Kathleen O., additional, Lavers, David, additional, Loeb, Norman G., additional, Loyola, Diego, additional, Madelon, Remi, additional, Malmquist, Hilmar J., additional, Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, additional, Mayer, Michael, additional, McCabe, Matthew F., additional, McVicar, Tim R., additional, Mears, Carl A., additional, Menzel, Annette, additional, Merchant, Christopher J., additional, Miralles, Diego G., additional, Montzka, Stephen A., additional, Morice, Colin, additional, Mösinger, Leander, additional, Mühle, Jens, additional, Nicolas, Julien P., additional, Noetzli, Jeannette, additional, Nõges, Tiina, additional, Noll, Ben, additional, O’Keefe, John, additional, Osborn, Tim J., additional, Park, Taejin, additional, Pellet, Cecile, additional, Pelto, Maury S., additional, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., additional, Phillips, Coda, additional, Po-Chedley, Stephen, additional, Polvani, Lorenzo, additional, Preimesberger, Wolfgang, additional, Price, Colin, additional, Pulkkanen, Merja, additional, Rains, Dominik G., additional, Randel, William J., additional, Rémy, Samuel, additional, Ricciardulli, Lucrezia, additional, Richardson, Andrew D., additional, Robinson, David A., additional, Rodell, Matthew, additional, Rodríguez-Fernández, Nemesio J., additional, Rosenlof, Karen H., additional, Roth, Chris, additional, Rozanov, Alexei, additional, Rutishäuser, This, additional, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, additional, Sawaengphokhai, Parnchai, additional, Schenzinger, Verena, additional, Schlegel, Robert W., additional, Schneider, Udo, additional, Sharma, Sapna, additional, Shi, Lei, additional, Simmons, Adrian J., additional, Siso, Carolina, additional, Smith, Sharon L., additional, Soden, Brian J., additional, Sofieva, Viktoria, additional, Sparks, Tim H., additional, Stackhouse, Paul W., additional, Stauffer, Ryan, additional, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, additional, Steiner, Andrea K., additional, Stewart, Kenton, additional, Stradiotti, Pietro, additional, Streletskiy, Dimitri A., additional, Telg, Hagen, additional, Thackeray, Stephen J., additional, Thibert, Emmanuel, additional, Todt, Michael, additional, Tokuda, Daisuke, additional, Tourpali, Kleareti, additional, Tye, Mari R., additional, van der A, Ronald, additional, van der Schalie, Robin, additional, van der Schrier, Gerard, additional, van der Vliet, Mendy, additional, van der Werf, Guido R., additional, van Vliet, Arnold., additional, Vernier, Jean-Paul, additional, Vimont, Isaac J., additional, Virts, Katrina, additional, Vivero, Sebastiàn, additional, Vömel, Holger, additional, Vose, Russell S., additional, Wang, Ray H. J., additional, Weber, Markus, additional, Wiese, David, additional, Wild, Jeanette D., additional, Williams, Earle, additional, Wong, Takmeng, additional, Woolway, R. I., additional, Yin, Xungang, additional, Yuan, Ye, additional, Zhao, Lin, additional, Zhou, Xinjia, additional, Ziemke, Jerry R., additional, Ziese, Markus, additional, and Zotta, Ruxandra M., additional

Published
2022
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15. Independent Quality Assessment of Essential Climate Variables: Lessons learnt from the Copernicus Climate Change Service

Author

Yang, Chunxue, primary, Cagnazzo, Chiara, additional, Artale, Vincenzo, additional, Buongiorno Nardelli, Bruno, additional, Buontempo, Carlo, additional, Busatto, Jacopo, additional, Caporaso, Luca, additional, Cesarini, Claudia, additional, Cionni, Irene, additional, Coll, John, additional, Crezee, Bas, additional, Cristofanelli, Paolo, additional, de Toma, Vincenzo, additional, Hesham Essa, Yassmin, additional, Eyring, Veronika, additional, Fierli, Federico, additional, Grant, Luke, additional, Hassler, Birgit, additional, Hirschi, Martin, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Le Merle, Eva, additional, Elisa Leonelli, Francesca, additional, Lin, Xia, additional, Madonna, Fabio, additional, Mason, Evan, additional, Massonnet, François, additional, Marcos, Marta, additional, Marullo, Salvatore, additional, Müller, Benjamin, additional, Obregon, Andre, additional, Organelli, Emanuele, additional, Palacz, Artur, additional, Pascual, Ananda, additional, Pisano, Andrea, additional, Putero, Davide, additional, Rana, Arun, additional, Sánchez-Román, Antonio, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Serva, Federico, additional, Storto, Andrea, additional, Thiery, Wim, additional, Throne, Peter, additional, Van Tricht, Lander, additional, Verhaegen, Yoni, additional, Volpe, Gianluca, additional, and Santoleri, Rosalia, additional

Published
2022
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16. Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 West-Central European soil drought.

Author

Schumacher, Dominik L., Zachariah, Mariam, Otto, Friederike, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Heinrich, Dorothy, Arrighi, Julie, van Aalst, Maarten, Hauser, Mathias, Hirschi, Martin, Bessenbacher, Verena, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Beaudoing, Hiroko K., Rodell, Matthew, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, and Vecchi, Gabriel A.

Subjects
HUMAN fingerprints, GLOBAL warming, ATMOSPHERIC models, SOIL moisture, DROUGHTS, SOILS, SUMMER
Abstract

In the 2022 summer, West-Central Europe and several other northern-hemisphere mid-latitude regions experienced substantial soil moisture deficits in the wake of precipitation shortages and elevated temperatures. Much of Europe has not witnessed a more severe soil drought since at least the mid-20th century, raising the question whether this is a manifestation of our warming climate. Here, we employ a well-established statistical approach to attribute the low 2022 summer soil moisture to human-induced climate change, using observation-driven soil moisture estimates and climate models. We find that in West-Central Europe, a June-August root-zone soil moisture drought such as in 2022 is expected to occur once in 20 years in the present climate, but would have occurred only about once per century during pre-industrial times. The entire northern extratropics show an even stronger global warming imprint with a 20-fold soil drought probability increase or higher, but we note that the underlying uncertainty is large. Reasons are manifold, but include the lack of direct soil moisture observations at the required spatiotemporal scales, the limitations of remotely sensed estimates, and the resulting need to simulate soil moisture with land surface models driven by meteorological data. Nevertheless, observationbased products indicate long-term declining summer soil moisture for both regions, and this tendency is likely fueled by regional warming, while no clear trends emerge for precipitation. Finally, our climate model analysis suggests that in a 2 °C world, 2022-like soil drought conditions would become twice as likely for West-Central Europe compared to today, and would take place nearly every year across the northern extratropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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