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Objectives Nationwide lifestyle intervention—specific health guidance (SHG) in Japan—employs counselling and education to change unhealthy behaviours that contribute to metabolic syndrome, especially obesity or abdominal obesity. We aimed to perform a model-based economic evaluation of SHG in a low participation rate setting.Design A hypothetical population, comprised 50 000 Japanese aged 40 years who met the criteria of the SHG, used a microsimulation using the Markov model to evaluate SHG’s cost-effectiveness compared with non-SHG. This hypothetical population was simulated over a 35-year time horizon.Setting SHG is conducted annually by all Japanese insurers.Outcome measures Model parameters, such as costs and health outcomes (including quality-adjusted life-years, QALYs), were based on existing literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated from the healthcare payer’s perspective. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted to evaluate the uncertainty around the model input parameters.Results The simulation revealed that the total costs per person in the SHG group decreased by JPY53 014 (US$480) compared with that in the non-SHG group, and the QALYs increased by 0.044, wherein SHG was considered the dominant strategy despite the low participation rates. PSA indicated that the credibility intervals (2.5th–97.5th percentile) of the incremental costs and the incremental QALYs with the SHG group compared with the non-SHG group were −JPY687 376 to JPY85 197 (−US$6226 to US$772) and −0.009 to 0.350 QALYs, respectively. Each scenario analysis indicated that programmes for improving both blood pressure and blood glucose levels among other risk factors for metabolic syndrome are essential for improving cost-effectiveness.Conclusions This study suggests that even small effects of counselling and education on behavioural modification may lead to the prevention of acute life-threatening events and chronic diseases, in addition to the reduction of medication resulting from metabolic syndrome, which results in cost savings.

Abstract Background Existing reviews indicated that disease management for patients with diabetes may be effective in achieving better health outcomes with less resource utilization in the short term. However, the long-term results were inconsistent because of the heterogeneous nature of the study designs. In the present study, we evaluated the 5-year follow-up results of a local disease management program focused on diabetic nephropathy prevention under the universal public health insurance scheme in Japan. Methods Patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes who had stage 3 or 4 diabetic kidney disease and were aged between 20 and 75 years were invited to join a disease management program to support self-management and receive a recommended treatment protocol between 2011 and 2013. Follow-up data were collected from an electronic claims database for the public insurance scheme. Considering the non-random selection process, we prepared two control groups matched by estimated propensity scores to compare the incidence of diabetes-related complications, death, and resource utilization. Results The treatment group was more likely to receive clinical management in accordance with the guideline-recommended medication. After propensity score matching, the treatment group had lower incidence of diabetic nephropathy and emergency care use than the control group selected from a beneficiary pool mainly under primary care. Comparisons between the treatment group and the control group with more selected clinical conditions did not show differences in the incidence rate and resource utilization. Conclusions The present results demonstrated limited effectiveness of the program for reducing complication incidence and resource utilization during the 5-year follow-up. Further research on the long-term effectiveness of co-management by primary care physicians, subspecialists in endocrinology and nephrology, and nurse educators is required for effective management of diabetes-related nephropathy.