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ObjectiveSome patients with rheumatic diseases might be at higher risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to develop a prediction model for COVID-19 ARDS in this population and to create a simple risk score calculator for use in clinical settings.MethodsData were derived from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry from March 24, 2020, to May 12, 2021. Seven machine learning classifiers were trained on ARDS outcomes using 83 variables obtained at COVID-19 diagnosis. Predictive performance was assessed in a US test set and was validated in patients from four countries with independent registries using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A simple risk score calculator was developed using a regression model incorporating the most influential predictors from the best performing classifier.ResultsThe study included 8633 patients from 74 countries, of whom 523 (6%) had ARDS. Gradient boosting had the highest mean AUC (0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.88) and was considered the top performing classifier. Ten predictors were identified as key risk factors and were included in a regression model. The regression model that predicted ARDS with 71% (95% CI: 61%-83%) sensitivity in the test set, and with sensitivities ranging from 61% to 80% in countries with independent registries, was used to develop the risk score calculator.ConclusionWe were able to predict ARDS with good sensitivity using information readily available at COVID-19 diagnosis. The proposed risk score calculator has the potential to guide risk stratification for treatments, such as monoclonal antibodies, that have potential to reduce COVID-19 disease progression.

ObjectivesTo investigate factors associated with severe COVID-19 in people with idiopathic inflammatory myopathy (IIM).MethodsDemographic data, clinical characteristics and COVID-19 outcome severity of adults with IIM were obtained from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance physician-reported registry. A 3-point ordinal COVID-19 severity scale was defined: (1) no hospitalisation, (2) hospitalisation (and no death) and (3) death. ORs were estimated using multivariable ordinal logistic regression. Sensitivity analyses were performed using a 4-point ordinal scale: (1) no hospitalisation, (2) hospitalisation with no oxygen (and no death), (3) hospitalisation with oxygen/ventilation (and no death) and 4) death.ResultsOf 348 patients, 48% were not hospitalised, 39% were hospitalised (and did not die) and 13% died. Older age (OR=1.59/decade, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.91), high disease activity (OR=3.50, 95% CI 1.25 to 9.83; vs remission), ≥2 comorbidities (OR=2.63, 95% CI 1.39 to 4.98; vs none), prednisolone-equivalent dose >7.5 mg/day (OR=2.40, 95% CI 1.09 to 5.28; vs no intake) and exposure to rituximab (OR=2.71, 95% CI 1.28 to 5.72; vs conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs only) were independently associated with severe COVID-19. In addition to these variables, in the sensitivity analyses, male sex (OR range: 1.65-1.83; vs female) was also significantly associated with severe outcomes, while COVID-19 diagnosis after 1 October 2020 (OR range: 0.51-0.59; vs on/before 15 June 2020) was significantly associated with less severe outcomes, but these associations were not significant in the main model (OR=1.57, 95% CI 0.95 to 2.59; and OR=0.61, 95% CI 0.37 to 1.00; respectively).ConclusionsThis is the first large registry data on outcomes of COVID-19 in people with IIM. Older age, male sex, higher comorbidity burden, high disease activity, prednisolone-equivalent dose >7.5 mg/day and rituximab exposure were associated with severe COVID-19. These findings will enable risk stratification and inform management decisions for patients with IIM.

BackgroundDifferences in the distribution of individual-level clinical risk factors across regions do not fully explain the observed global disparities in COVID-19 outcomes. We aimed to investigate the associations between environmental and societal factors and country-level variations in mortality attributed to COVID-19 among people with rheumatic disease globally.MethodsIn this observational study, we derived individual-level data on adults (aged 18-99 years) with rheumatic disease and a confirmed status of their highest COVID-19 severity level from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance (GRA) registry, collected between March 12, 2020, and Aug 27, 2021. Environmental and societal factors were obtained from publicly available sources. The primary endpoint was mortality attributed to COVID-19. We used a multivariable logistic regression to evaluate independent associations between environmental and societal factors and death, after controlling for individual-level risk factors. We used a series of nested mixed-effects models to establish whether environmental and societal factors sufficiently explained country-level variations in death.Findings14 044 patients from 23 countries were included in the analyses. 10 178 (72·5%) individuals were female and 3866 (27·5%) were male, with a mean age of 54·4 years (SD 15·6). Air pollution (odds ratio 1·10 per 10 μg/m3 [95% CI 1·01-1·17]; p=0·0105), proportion of the population aged 65 years or older (1·19 per 1% increase [1·10-1·30]; p

AimTo determine characteristics associated with more severe outcomes in a global registry of people with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and COVID-19.MethodsPeople with SLE and COVID-19 reported in the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance registry from March 2020 to June 2021 were included. The ordinal outcome was defined as: (1) not hospitalised, (2) hospitalised with no oxygenation, (3) hospitalised with any ventilation or oxygenation and (4) death. A multivariable ordinal logistic regression model was constructed to assess the relationship between COVID-19 severity and demographic characteristics, comorbidities, medications and disease activity.ResultsA total of 1606 people with SLE were included. In the multivariable model, older age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.04), male sex (1.50, 1.01 to 2.23), prednisone dose (1-5 mg/day 1.86, 1.20 to 2.66, 6-9 mg/day 2.47, 1.24 to 4.86 and ≥10 mg/day 1.95, 1.27 to 2.99), no current treatment (1.80, 1.17 to 2.75), comorbidities (eg, kidney disease 3.51, 2.42 to 5.09, cardiovascular disease/hypertension 1.69, 1.25 to 2.29) and moderate or high SLE disease activity (vs remission; 1.61, 1.02 to 2.54 and 3.94, 2.11 to 7.34, respectively) were associated with more severe outcomes. In age-adjusted and sex-adjusted models, mycophenolate, rituximab and cyclophosphamide were associated with worse outcomes compared with hydroxychloroquine; outcomes were more favourable with methotrexate and belimumab.ConclusionsMore severe COVID-19 outcomes in individuals with SLE are largely driven by demographic factors, comorbidities and untreated or active SLE. Patients using glucocorticoids also experienced more severe outcomes.

Objective: Patients with immune‐mediated diseases treated with anti‐CD20 monoclonal antibodies may have worse coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) outcomes due to impaired humoral immunity, but differences compared with the general population are unknown. Methods: We identified patients with immune‐mediated diseases who received anti‐CD20 monoclonal antibodies within 1 year prior to the index date of polymerase chain reaction–confirmed COVID‐19 between January 31, 2020, and January 31, 2021. General population comparators with COVID‐19 were matched up 5:1 by age, sex, and polymerase chain reaction date. Unadjusted and multivariable adjusted (for age, race, body mass index, and Charlson Comorbidity Index) hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, and death in recipients of anti‐CD20 monoclonal antibodies versus comparators were estimated by using Cox regression. Results: We identified 114 cases patients COVID‐19 who had received anti‐CD20 monoclonal antibodies for immune‐mediated diseases (mean age 55 years, 70% female) and 559 matched comparators with COVID‐19 (mean age 54 years, 70% female). Patients treated with anti‐CD20 monoclonal antibodies had higher mortality (adjusted HR 2.16; 95% CI: 1.03‐4.54) than matched comparators. Risks of hospitalization (adjusted HR 0.88; 95% CI: 0.62‐1.26) and mechanical ventilation use (adjusted HR 0.82; 95% CI: 0.36‐1.87) were similar. Similar trends were seen in analyses according to type of indication (eg, rheumatic or neurologic disease) and duration of anti‐CD20 monoclonal antibody use (<1 or ≥1 year) and after patients with interstitial lung disease, those with cancer, and those on glucocorticoids prior to COVID‐19 diagnosis were excluded. Conclusion: Patients who received anti‐CD20 monoclonal antibodies for immune‐mediated diseases prior to COVID‐19 had higher mortality following COVID‐19 than matched comparators, highlighting the urgent need to mitigate excess risks in recipients of anti‐CD20 monoclonal antibodies during the ongoing pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To describe obstetric outcomes based on COVID-19 vaccination status, in women with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs) who developed COVID-19 during pregnancy., Methods: Data regarding pregnant women entered into the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance registry from 24 March 2020-25 February 2022 were analysed. Obstetric outcomes were stratified by number of COVID-19 vaccine doses received prior to COVID-19 infection in pregnancy. Descriptive differences between groups were tested using the chi-squared or Fisher's exact test., Results: There were 73 pregnancies in 73 women with RMD and COVID-19. Overall, 24.7% (18) of pregnancies were ongoing, while of the 55 completed pregnancies, 90.9% (50) of pregnancies resulted in livebirths. At the time of COVID-19 diagnosis, 60.3% (n = 44) of women were unvaccinated, 4.1% (n = 3) had received one vaccine dose while 35.6% (n = 26) had two or more doses. Although 83.6% (n = 61) of women required no treatment for COVID-19, 20.5% (n = 15) required hospital admission. COVID-19 resulted in delivery in 6.8% (n = 3) of unvaccinated women and 3.8% (n = 1) of fully vaccinated women. There was a greater number of preterm births (PTB) in unvaccinated women compared with fully vaccinated 29.5% (n = 13) vs 18.2% (n = 2)., Conclusions: In this descriptive study, unvaccinated pregnant women with RMD and COVID-19 had a greater number of PTB compared with those fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Additionally, the need for COVID-19 pharmacological treatment was uncommon in pregnant women with RMD regardless of vaccination status. These results support active promotion of COVID-19 vaccination in women with RMD who are pregnant or planning a pregnancy., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Objectives: To investigate temporal trends in incidence and severity of COVID-19 among patients with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARDs) from the first wave through the Omicron wave., Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study investigating COVID-19 outcomes among SARD patients systematically identified to have confirmed COVID-19 from March 1, 2020 to January 31, 2022 at a large healthcare system in Massachusetts. We tabulated COVID-19 counts of total and severe cases (hospitalizations or deaths) and compared the proportion with severe COVID-19 by calendar period and by vaccination status. We used logistic regression to estimate the ORs for severe COVID-19 for each period compared to the early COVID-19 period (reference group)., Results: We identified 1449 SARD patients with COVID-19 (mean age 58.4 years, 75.2% female, 33.9% rheumatoid arthritis). There were 399 (27.5%) cases of severe COVID-19. The proportion of severe COVID-19 outcomes declined over calendar time (p for trend <0.001); 45.6% of cases were severe in the early COVID-19 period (March 1-June 30, 2020) vs. 14.7% in the Omicron wave (December 17, 2021-January 31, 2022; adjusted odds ratio 0.29, 95%CI 0.19-0.43). A higher proportion of those unvaccinated were severe compared to not severe cases (78.4% vs. 59.5%)., Conclusions: The proportion of SARD patients with severe COVID-19 has diminished since early in the pandemic, particularly during the most recent time periods, including the Omicron wave. Advances in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of COVID-19 may have improved outcomes among SARD patients., Key Messages: What is already known about this subject?: Patients with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARDs) may be at increased risk for severe COVID-19, defined as hospitalization or death.Previous studies of SARD patients suggested improving COVID-19 outcomes over calendar time, but most were performed prior to the wide availability of COVID-19 vaccines or the Omicron wave that was characterized by high infectivity. What does this study add?: The proportion of SARD patients with severe COVID-19 outcomes was lower over calendar timeThe adjusted odds ratio of severe COVID-19 in the Omicron wave was 0.29 (95%CI 0.19-0.43) compared to early COVID-19 period.The absolute number of severe COVID-19 cases during the peak of the Omicron variant wave was similar to the peaks of other waves.SARD patients with severe vs. not severe COVID-19 were more likely to be unvaccinated. How might this impact on clinical practice or future developments?: These findings suggest that advances in COVID-19 prevention, diagnosis, and treatment have contributed to improved outcomes among SARD patients over calendar time.Future studies should extend findings into future viral variants and consider the roles of waning immunity after vaccination or natural infection among SARD patients who may still be vulnerable to severe COVID-19.

Objective: To describe disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) disruption, rheumatic disease flare/activity, and prolonged COVID-19 symptom duration among COVID-19 survivors with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARDs)., Methods: We surveyed patients with SARDs after confirmed COVID-19 at Mass General Brigham to investigate post-acute sequelae of COVID-19. We obtained data on demographics, clinical characteristics, COVID-19 symptoms/course, and patient-reported measures. We examined baseline predictors of prolonged COVID-19 symptom duration (defined as lasting ≥28 days) using logistic regression., Results: We analyzed surveys from 174 COVID-19 survivors (mean age 52 years, 81% female, 80% White, 50% rheumatoid arthritis) between March 2021 and January 2022. Fifty-one percent of 127 respondents on any DMARD reported a disruption to their regimen after COVID-19 onset. For individual DMARDs, 56-77% had any change, except for hydroxychloroquine (23%) and rituximab (46%). SARD flare after COVID-19 was reported by 41%. Global patient-reported disease activity was worse at the time of survey than before COVID-19 (mean 6.6±2.9 vs. 7.6±2.3, p<0.001). Median time to COVID-19 symptom resolution was 14 days (IQR 9,29). Prolonged symptom duration of ≥28 days occurred in 45%. Hospitalization for COVID-19 (OR 3.54, 95%CI 1.27-9.87) and initial COVID-19 symptom count (OR 1.38 per symptom, 95%CI 1.17-1.63) were associated with prolonged symptom duration. Respondents experiencing prolonged symptom duration had higher RAPID3 scores (p=0.007) and more pain (p<0.001) and fatigue (p=0.03) compared to those without prolonged symptoms., Conclusion: DMARD disruption, SARD flare, and prolonged symptom duration were common in this prospective study of COVID-19 survivors, suggesting substantial impact on SARDs after acute COVID-19.