17 results on '"Impact studies"'
Search Results
2. Impact of International Financial Reporting Standards 16 -Leases on China Unicom
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Sun, Yimeng, Appolloni, Andrea, Series Editor, Caracciolo, Francesco, Series Editor, Ding, Zhuoqi, Series Editor, Gogas, Periklis, Series Editor, Huang, Gordon, Series Editor, Nartea, Gilbert, Series Editor, Ngo, Thanh, Series Editor, Striełkowski, Wadim, Series Editor, Cheng, Hongbing, editor, Qalati, Sikandar Ali, editor, Sapiei, Noor Sharoja Binti, editor, and Abdullah, Mazni Binti, editor
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- 2024
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3. Dizi ve Seriyallerin Uluslararası İzleyiciler Üzerindeki Etkisi Ölçeği.
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KAÇAR, Ferhat
- Abstract
Copyright of Turkish Journal of Social Research / Turkiye Sosyal Arastirmalar Dergisi is the property of Turkish Journal of Social Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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- 2024
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4. Effect of Mechanical Vibration and Impact Loading on the Performance of Poly (Vinylidene Fluoride) Composite.
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Jain, A., Dange, E., Jesmary, K. J., Kumar, S. J., and Hamsa, R.
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- *
VIBRATION (Mechanics) , *IMPACT (Mechanics) , *DIFLUOROETHYLENE , *IMPACT loads , *POLYVINYLIDENE fluoride , *MELTING points - Abstract
Piezoelectric polymer poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) is extensively used as sensor and actuator devices owing their excellent piezoelectric and pyroelectric properties. However, the melting point of PVDF is relatively low and the service temperature of PVDF is up to 100°C. This restricts the use of PVDF in high temperature applications. This can be improved by adding appropriate fillers to the PVDF. In the present study, a composite of PVDF-Onium salt was developed and characterized to improve the thermal efficiency of PVDF for high temperature applications. In order to investigate the presence of β-phase, which is necessary for sensor applications, X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, Raman and infrared spectra, and dielectric test were used to characterize PVDF-Onium salt composite films made using the solvent cast method. The melting point of PVDF-Onium salt composite was found to be higher (175°C) as compared to the PVDF polymer alone (168.2°C) which has been discussed in detail. The PVDF-Onium salt composite sensors were further tested for dynamic strain sensing application for the first time. The modes of cantilever beam vibrations and the impact loading effects were recorded in order to assess the performance of these sensors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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5. Seamlessly combined historical and projected daily meteorological datasets for impact studies in Central Europe: The FORESEE v4.0 and the FORESEE-HUN v1.0
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Anikó Kern, Laura Dobor, Roland Hollós, Hrvoje Marjanović, Csaba Zsolt Torma, Anna Kis, Nándor Fodor, and Zoltán Barcza
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Climate datasets ,E-OBS ,HUCLIM ,EURO-CORDEX ,Bias correction ,Impact studies ,Meteorology. Climatology ,QC851-999 ,Social sciences (General) ,H1-99 - Abstract
The FORESEE is an open access, climatological database for Central Europe containing observed and projected meteorological data for the 1951–2100 period. As a climate service, FORESEE disseminates basic meteorological variables at a daily time step with a 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution including maximum/minimum temperature, precipitation, incoming shortwave solar radiation and daylight vapour pressure deficit. The future climate in FORESEE v4.0 and FORESEE-HUN v1.0 is projected by 14 regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX database using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Based on RCP4.5 the country-specific results indicate similar projected mean changes in annual mean temperature (1.5–1.7 °C) but considerable differences in precipitation (from −1.6 to 6.9%) in the region for 2071–2100 relative to 1991–2020. We present two case studies to demonstrate the applicability of FORESEE in climate change impact studies using the ensemble approach. Climate change induced negative weather effect (15.4% and 28.9% mean loss for 2071–2100 according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) might dominate the future winter wheat yields in Hungary that is superimposed to the overall trend determined by other factors. The projections provide consistent results about the mean advance in the start of the growing season for forests in Hungary up to 2100 with ensemble mean of 9.1 days (RCP4.5) and 19.8 days (RCP8.5). We also demonstrate that the representative model selection method might lead to misleading results in impact studies that should be considered. The updated FORESEE is a way forward in the dissemination of policy-relevant essential climate data in Central Europe.
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- 2024
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6. Ecological quality assessment: A framework to report ecosystems quality and their dynamics from reference conditions.
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Sturbois, Anthony, De Cáceres, Miquel, Bifolchi, Aline, Bioret, Frédéric, Boyé, Aurélien, Gauthier, Olivier, Grall, Jacques, Grémare, Antoine, Labrune, Céline, Robert, Alexandre, Schaal, Gauthier, and Desroy, Nicolas
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ECOLOGICAL assessment ,ECOSYSTEM dynamics ,ECOLOGICAL disturbances ,FRESHWATER biodiversity ,ENVIRONMENTAL health ,ENVIRONMENTAL degradation - Abstract
Worldwide, ecosystems are suffering important taxonomic and functional modifications in response to anthropogenic disturbances, operating at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Awareness on biodiversity losses has led to the adoption of conservation policies and the development of programs devoted to the conservation and the restoration of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. The assessment of the ecological health of ecosystems requires measuring and characterizing restoration or degradation dynamics and their consequences on the ecological quality with respect to reference conditions defined pragmatically as conservation targets. Methodological innovations, in terms of data collection, analysis, and visualization, have an important influence on the ability of ecologists to understand biodiversity changes. The assessment of the quality of ecosystems with respect to reference conditions requires to address, notably, three main challenges: the definition of reference conditions, the assessment of the degree of achievement of conservation objectives, and the qualitative and quantitative characterization of recovering and departing patterns. We propose here the ecological quality assessment (EQA) framework as a data‐driven approach to track ecological quality focusing on the distance of the tested stations with respect to a chosen reference envelope using fuzzy logic and trajectory analysis. We take advantage of those analytical tools to propose a general and flexible multivariate framework by quantifying the achievement of reference conditions, measuring restoration and degradation dynamics when temporal series are available, and representing and synthesizing this information. To take into account the natural spatiotemporal variability of sites considered as reference, we gave two variants to our framework: a state‐based variant when no temporal replications are available and a trajectory‐based variant specially devoted to compare whole trajectories to a trajectory reference envelope defined by a set of reference trajectories. These two complementary approaches were illustrated through two terrestrial and marine ecological applications using the R package "ecotraj" in order to evidence ecological observations that meet conservation objectives from those that do not meet them. EQA constitutes a flexible framework for the assessment and reporting of ecosystem quality, including restoration and degradation dynamics adaptable to multiple questions in the different fields of ecology and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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7. Relationships between student mobility and academic and behavioural outcomes in Western Australian public primary schools.
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Gannon, Jacqueline, Budgeon, Charley A, and Li, Ian W
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STUDENT mobility , *SCHOOL children , *PRIMARY schools , *STUDENT suspension , *PUBLIC schools , *STUDENT engagement - Abstract
The number of times children change schools, or student mobility, is associated with multiple adverse outcomes across the life span. This study used administrative data from the Western Australian Department of Education for public primary school students who completed Year 6 between 2016 and 2019 to examine potential associations between student mobility and academic (using National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy [NAPLAN] participation and scores) and behaviour outcomes (measured through school suspensions). The odds of participating (vs. not participating) in NAPLAN were significantly lower for students with high mobility. High mobility students also achieved significantly lower scores, on average, on NAPLAN literacy and numeracy at Year 3 and Year 5 compared with low mobility students. However, there was no evidence of an association between student mobility and school suspensions. These findings highlight the need for action to address substantial academic detriment for mobile students, many of whom are likely to be from lower socio-economic backgrounds. Furthermore, current policies to address academic disadvantage are likely to exclude those students at substantial academic risk and require revision to be appropriately triaged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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8. Ecological quality assessment: A framework to report ecosystems quality and their dynamics from reference conditions
- Author
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Anthony Sturbois, Miquel De Cáceres, Aline Bifolchi, Frédéric Bioret, Aurélien Boyé, Olivier Gauthier, Jacques Grall, Antoine Grémare, Céline Labrune, Alexandre Robert, Gauthier Schaal, and Nicolas Desroy
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BACI ,ecological dynamic regime ,ecological quality status ,ecological trajectory analysis ,experimental design ,impact studies ,Ecology ,QH540-549.5 - Abstract
Abstract Worldwide, ecosystems are suffering important taxonomic and functional modifications in response to anthropogenic disturbances, operating at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Awareness on biodiversity losses has led to the adoption of conservation policies and the development of programs devoted to the conservation and the restoration of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. The assessment of the ecological health of ecosystems requires measuring and characterizing restoration or degradation dynamics and their consequences on the ecological quality with respect to reference conditions defined pragmatically as conservation targets. Methodological innovations, in terms of data collection, analysis, and visualization, have an important influence on the ability of ecologists to understand biodiversity changes. The assessment of the quality of ecosystems with respect to reference conditions requires to address, notably, three main challenges: the definition of reference conditions, the assessment of the degree of achievement of conservation objectives, and the qualitative and quantitative characterization of recovering and departing patterns. We propose here the ecological quality assessment (EQA) framework as a data‐driven approach to track ecological quality focusing on the distance of the tested stations with respect to a chosen reference envelope using fuzzy logic and trajectory analysis. We take advantage of those analytical tools to propose a general and flexible multivariate framework by quantifying the achievement of reference conditions, measuring restoration and degradation dynamics when temporal series are available, and representing and synthesizing this information. To take into account the natural spatiotemporal variability of sites considered as reference, we gave two variants to our framework: a state‐based variant when no temporal replications are available and a trajectory‐based variant specially devoted to compare whole trajectories to a trajectory reference envelope defined by a set of reference trajectories. These two complementary approaches were illustrated through two terrestrial and marine ecological applications using the R package “ecotraj” in order to evidence ecological observations that meet conservation objectives from those that do not meet them. EQA constitutes a flexible framework for the assessment and reporting of ecosystem quality, including restoration and degradation dynamics adaptable to multiple questions in the different fields of ecology and conservation.
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- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
9. Digging deep: lessons learned from meiofaunal responses to a disturbance experiment in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone.
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Lefaible, Nene, Macheriotou, Lara, Purkiani, Kaveh, Haeckel, Matthias, Zeppilli, Daniela, Pape, Ellen, and Vanreusel, Ann
- Abstract
The deep-sea mining industry is currently at a point where large-sale, commercial polymetallic nodule exploitation is becoming a more realistic scenario. At the same time, certain aspects such as the spatiotemporal scale of impacts, sediment plume dispersion and the disturbance-related biological responses remain highly uncertain. In this paper, findings from a small-scale seabed disturbance experiment in the German contract area (Clarion-Clipperton Zone, CCZ) are described, with a focus on the soft-sediment ecosystem component. Despite the limited spatial scale of the induced disturbance on the seafloor, this experiment allowed us to evaluate how short-term (< 1 month) soft-sediment changes can be assessed based on sediment characteristics (grain size, nutrients and pigments) and metazoan meiofaunal communities (morphological and metabarcoding analyses). Furthermore, we show how benthic measurements can be combined with numerical modelling of sediment transport to enhance our understanding of meiofaunal responses to increased sedimentation levels. The lessons learned within this study highlight the major issues of current deep-sea mining-related ecological research such as deficient baseline knowledge, unrepresentative impact intensity of mining simulations and challenges associated with sampling trade-offs (e.g., replication). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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10. Impact of Pharmacovigilance Interventions Targeting Fluoroquinolones on Antibiotic Use in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.
- Author
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Lasys T, Santa-Ana-Tellez Y, Siiskonen SJ, Groenwold RHH, and Gardarsdottir H
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- Humans, Netherlands epidemiology, United Kingdom epidemiology, Practice Patterns, Physicians' statistics & numerical data, Interrupted Time Series Analysis, Female, Male, Primary Health Care statistics & numerical data, Middle Aged, Aged, Fluoroquinolones adverse effects, Fluoroquinolones therapeutic use, Anti-Bacterial Agents adverse effects, Pharmacovigilance
- Abstract
Purpose: Fluoroquinolones are antibiotics associated with adverse events that prompted the European Medicines Agency to implement risk minimization measures (RMMs) in 2018/19 and 2020. Our aim is to assess the RMMs' impact on antibiotic prescriptions in primary care during 2014-2023., Methods: We assessed antibiotic prescriptions using CPRD GOLD (the United Kingdom, UK) and PHARMO (the Netherlands, NL). Prescriptions were assessed for fluoroquinolones and alternative antibiotics. The impact of RMMs on prescribing was assessed with interrupted time series (ITS) using monthly prescription rates per 10 000 person-years (MPTPY)., Results: Between 2014 and 2023, we identified cohorts of 4.0 (UK) and 0.9 million (NL) antibiotic users. Fluoroquinolones were prescribed to initiate 1.5% (UK) to 5.8% (NL) of the treatment episodes. Fluoroquinolone prescribing before the RMMs slowly decreased in the UK and was stable in the NL. The 2018/19 RMMs were associated with a steady downward post-RMMs trend in incident use of fluoroquinolones (MPTPY -0.7 [UK] and -0.8 [NL]) and opposite changes after 2020 RMMs (MPTPY 0.6 [UK] and 1.8 [NL]). The 2018/2019 RMMs were linked with increasing trends for other antibacterials (J01XX) in both countries and other beta-lactam antibacterials in the UK, but most antibiotics had decreasing trends post-RMMs in both countries. After the 2020 RMMs, some antibiotic groups showed upward trends., Conclusion: The risk minimization measures in 2018/2019 were associated with a moderate decrease in fluoroquinolone prescribing, with no further decrease after 2020 RMMs. There was no sustained increase in other antibiotic prescribing, suggesting that overprescribing was negligible as an unintended impact of RMMs., (© 2025 The Author(s). Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
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- 2025
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11. On the control of spatial and temporal oceanic scales by existing and future observing systems: An observing system simulation experiment approach
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Florent Gasparin, Jean-Michael Lellouche, Sophie E. Cravatte, Giovanni Ruggiero, B. Rohith, Pierre Yves Le Traon, and Elisabeth Rémy
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Argo floats ,tropical moored buoys ,ocean analysis systems ,observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) ,impact studies ,ocean monitoring and forecasting systems ,Science ,General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution ,QH1-199.5 - Abstract
Ocean monitoring and forecasting systems combine information from ocean observations and numerical models through advanced data assimilation techniques. They are essential to monitor and report on past, present and future oceanic conditions. However, given the continuous development of oceanic models and data assimilation techniques in addition to the increased diversity of assimilated platforms, it becomes more and more difficult to establish how information from observations is used, and to determine the utility and relevance of a change of the global ocean observing system on ocean analyses. Here, a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSE), which consist in simulating synthetic observations from a realistic simulation to be subsequently assimilated in an experimental analysis system, was performed. An original multiscale approach is then used to investigate (i) the impact of various observing system components by distinguishing between satellites and in situ (Argo floats and tropical moorings), and (ii) the impact of recommended changes in observing systems, in particular the impact of Argo floats doubling and enhancements of tropical moorings, on the fidelity of ocean analyses. This multiscale approach is key to better understand how observing system components, with their distinct sampling characteristics, help to constrain physical processes. The study demonstrates the ability of the analysis system to represent 40-80% of the temperature variance at mesoscale (20-30% for salinity), and more than 80% for larger scales. Satellite information, mostly through altimetric data, strongly constrains mesoscale variability, while the impact of in situ temperature and salinity profiles are essential to constrain large scale variability. It is also shown that future enhancements of Argo and tropical mooring arrays observations will likely be beneficial to ocean analyses at both intermediate and large scales, with a higher impact for salinity-related quantities. This work provides a better understanding on the respective role of major satellite and in situ observing system components in the integrated ocean observing system.
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- 2023
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12. COVID-19 Outbreak and Tourism: The State of the Art.
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Sainaghi, Ruggero
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TOURISM ,SERVICE industries ,COVID-19 pandemic ,TOURISTS ,TOURIST attractions - Abstract
This paper looks at tourism and hospitality pandemic literature and asks two research questions. The first identifies the main topics analyzed, while the second investigates future research avenues. Manual coding of 230 studies using a grounded theory approach identified 11 topics. An empirical research framework was proposed and organized around four blocks: companies, tourists, destinations, and the whole tourism system. Current literature focuses mainly on the business aspect and analyzes the strategies implemented by companies to deal with the coronavirus outbreak. Intention to travel is the main focus for the tourist block, while impact studies attracted the majority of studies at the destination level. The main tourism topic that is analyzed is post-coronavirus tourism. The conclusions of this paper identify possible research avenues for each topic (analytic research agenda) and also consider the framework as a whole (holistic value). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2022
13. Design and Numerical Evaluation of GFRP Reinforcement for Concrete Bridge Railing
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- United States
- Abstract
The main objective of this research is to design a concrete barrier that is reinforced with glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) materials. The design is based on the MoDOT Type D concrete barriers with steel bar reinforcements. The constructability of the GFRP reinforcement was also considered during the design process. This design adjusts the sizes and dimensions to match the properties of GFRP reinforcements. This exchange of the reinforcement materials is meant to take advantage of the preservative properties of GFRP materials to enhance the resistance to corrosion introduced degradation and damage. The strength as well as the behavior of GFRP reinforced concrete barrier under different types of loadings is then explored and modeled using commercial software ABAQUS and LS-Dyna. The static loading is firstly applied to the GFRP and steel bar reinforced concrete barriers for comparison. Different concrete barrier models are also considered to study the influence of different cast approaches. Afterwards, the behaviors of GFRP reinforced concrete barriers under car and truck impact scenarios are also modeled. Simplified models as well as full size models are both studied using ABAQUS and LS-Dyna separately. Truck collisions with different angles are considered to explore the behavior of GFRP reinforced concrete barrier under different possible collision scenarios. The modeling results show that the reaction forces from the dynamic impact modeling are much lower than the design strength.
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- 2024
14. Potential environmental impacts of photovoltaic solar energy on industry
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Antonio Carlos Franco, Luciane Silva Franco, and Mauro A.S.S. Ravagnani
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Photovoltaic solar energy ,business.industry ,Materials Science (miscellaneous) ,Photovoltaic system ,Fossil fuel ,Environmental economics ,Solar energy ,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering ,Renewable energy ,Impact studies ,Secondary sector of the economy ,Environmental science ,Portfolio ,Business and International Management ,business - Abstract
A energia solar é considerada um dos recursos de energia renovável mais importantes para diminuir a dependência de combustíveis fósseis. Portanto, este estudo tem como objetivo realizar uma revisão sistemática da literatura sobre pesquisas de alto impacto sobre os impactos ambientais evitados com o uso da energia solar fotovoltaica no setor industrial para investigar tendências neste corpo da literatura. Para tanto, foram aplicados filtros ao portfólio bruto entre 209 artigos e selecionados 22 para identificar os estudos mais relevantes e de alto impacto na área. Os resultados mostram as principais tendências do referido corpo da literatura, as possíveis conexões da energia solar fotovoltaica e os impactos ambientais na indústria, bem como os principais investigadores que realizam os estudos. Este estudo fornece uma visão geral dos impactos evitados com o uso da energia solar fotovoltaica nas possibilidades de pesquisas futuras.
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- 2023
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15. On the control of spatial and temporal oceanic scales by existing and future observing systems: An observing system simulation experiment approach
- Author
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Gasparin, Florent, Lellouche, Jean-michael, Cravatte, Sophie E., Ruggiero, Giovanni, Rohith, B., Le Traon, Pierre-yves, Remy, Elisabeth, Gasparin, Florent, Lellouche, Jean-michael, Cravatte, Sophie E., Ruggiero, Giovanni, Rohith, B., Le Traon, Pierre-yves, and Remy, Elisabeth
- Abstract
Ocean monitoring and forecasting systems combine information from ocean observations and numerical models through advanced data assimilation techniques. They are essential to monitor and report on past, present and future oceanic conditions. However, given the continuous development of oceanic models and data assimilation techniques in addition to the increased diversity of assimilated platforms, it becomes more and more difficult to establish how information from observations is used, and to determine the utility and relevance of a change of the global ocean observing system on ocean analyses. Here, a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSE), which consist in simulating synthetic observations from a realistic simulation to be subsequently assimilated in an experimental analysis system, was performed. An original multiscale approach is then used to investigate (i) the impact of various observing system components by distinguishing between satellites and in situ (Argo floats and tropical moorings), and (ii) the impact of recommended changes in observing systems, in particular the impact of Argo floats doubling and enhancements of tropical moorings, on the fidelity of ocean analyses. This multiscale approach is key to better understand how observing system components, with their distinct sampling characteristics, help to constrain physical processes. The study demonstrates the ability of the analysis system to represent 40-80% of the temperature variance at mesoscale (20-30% for salinity), and more than 80% for larger scales. Satellite information, mostly through altimetric data, strongly constrains mesoscale variability, while the impact of in situ temperature and salinity profiles are essential to constrain large scale variability. It is also shown that future enhancements of Argo and tropical mooring arrays observations will likely be beneficial to ocean analyses at both intermediate and large scales, with a higher impact for salinity-related quanti
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- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
16. Response of San Joaquin Kit Foxes to Road Construction Project Sites: Mitigation Strategies to Minimize Project Delays and Impacts
- Published
- 2023
17. Summer heatwaves in central-eastern Argentina : from physics to impact studies
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Coronato, Tanea and Carril, Andrea F.
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TEMPERATURA DE BULBO HUMEDO ,HEAT WAVES ,MODELOS DE SIMULACION ENERGETICA DE EDIFICIOS ,REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS ,CLIMATE CHANGE ,PERSISTENCE OF EXTREME DAYS ,TEMPERATURA MINIMA ,WET BULB TEMPERATURE ,CENTRAL-EASTERN ARGENTINA ,SOUTH AMERICA ,LAND-ATMOSPHERE COUPLING ,PERSISTENCIA DE DIAS EXTREMOS ,OLAS DE CALOR ,IMPACT STUDIES ,CAMBIO CLIMATICO ,ACOPLE SUELO-ATMOSFERA ,MULTIVARIATE CHARACTERIZATION OF HEAT WAVES ,MODELOS CLIMATICOS REGIONALES ,MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ,MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ,TEMPERATURA MAXIMA ,BUILDING ENERGY SIMULATION MODELS ,ROSARIO ,SUDAMERICA ,CENTRO-ESTE DE ARGENTINA ,HOT DAYS ,CARACTERIZACION MULTIVARIADA DE OLAS DE CALOR ,DIAS CALIDOS - Abstract
Este trabajo de tesis aborda la temática de las olas de calor que afectan el centro-este de Argentina desde distintos puntos de vista y escalas. Se estudian aspectos relativos a los procesos físicos que catalizan o modulan la ocurrencia de las olas de calor, sus características, estadísticos y proyecciones de cambio, y decreciendo en escalas, se realizan estudios de impacto. La tesis va más allá de la típica comparación de climatologías modeladas versus observadas, pues incluye el análisis de una serie de experimentos ad-hoc para el estudio de los procesos en la interfase suelo-atmósfera, caracterizaciones novedosas de las olas de calor y un enfoque innovador e interdisciplinario para evaluar el impacto del clima y de su variabilidad en el consumo energético destinado a la refrigeración de viviendas sociales. Estudios previos han demostrado que el centro-este de Argentina es una zona de transición climática y de acople entre el suelo y la atmósfera. En esta tesis se exploran las implicancias de dicho acople (es decir, de las retroalimentaciones entre la humedad del suelo y la atmósfera) en los extremos cálidos del campo de temperatura. Mediante el análisis de una serie de experimentos numéricos diseñados ad-hoc para el estudio de las interacciones suelo-atmósfera, se muestra que las mismas afectan a la cola de la distribución de probabilidad del campo térmico, impactando en los extremos cálidos y en su persistencia. Además, tanto la existencia del acople suelo-atmósfera como de las condiciones de suelo relativamente secas favorecen la ocurrencia de extremos de temperatura. En ausencia de acople suelo-atmósfera, el impacto de las condiciones de humedad del suelo (secas o húmedas) es más débil. Estos resultados sugieren que el rol de las interacciones entre la humedad del suelo y la atmósfera es más importante que el impacto de las anomalías estacionarias de la humedad del suelo. Las proyecciones de cambio climático sobre el centro-este de Argentina señalan incrementos en la persistencia de días cálidos, de noches cálidas y de días húmedos. Éstos impactan en las proyecciones de cambio de las olas de calor, las que fueron analizadas y categorizadas. Mediante un análisis multivariado que incluye información de la temperatura y del contenido de humedad de las mismas, emergen tres tipos principales de olas de calor: las cálidas y secas (de aquí en más, “secas”), las extremadamente cálidas y húmedas ( “intensas”) y las húmedas con noches particularmente calurosas (“húmedas”). Todas ellas, se proyectan más extremas a futuro. Además, se espera una mayor frecuencia de ocurrencia de eventos “intensos” como consecuencia de los cambios proyectados para los campos medios: temperaturas más altas, pero con incrementos más pronunciados en las temperaturas mínimas y en las temperaturas de bulbo húmedo que en las temperaturas máximas. En general, olas de calor consideradas extremas e improbables bajo las condiciones de clima actual resultan eventos típicos en el clima futuro, característica que se agudiza hacia fin de siglo y bajo escenarios de mayores emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Además, la variabilidad de las olas de calor disminuye levemente bajo condiciones de clima futuro, cuando los eventos proyectados asemejan más al evento típico que bajo condiciones de clima presente. Finalmente, no se destacan cambios significativos en otros parámetros típicos de las olas de calor, como e.g., duración y frecuencia de los eventos. Dado que el sector residencial es el segundo sector de importancia en cuanto al consumo de energía en el país, que parte de dicho consumo es dedicado a mantener las condiciones de confort de sus habitantes y que tanto la urbanización como las condiciones de calor extremas se espera que continúen in crescendo durante las próximas décadas, se realizaron estudios de impacto sobre el consumo energético para la refrigeración de viviendas sociales. Sobre la base de la experiencia previa de las comunidades de clima y de impactos, se propuso una metodología que permite proyectar los cambios en el consumo, conservando la información acerca de las variabilidades del clima en distintas escalas temporales y abordando el problema de la incertidumbre de los resultados como un elemento de juicio para los tomadores de decisión. Se encontró que la confianza en los resultados aumenta a medida que aumenta la eficiencia energética de las viviendas mediante intervenciones edilicias que las hacen menos sensibles a la condición climática. Sin embargo, cuando el forzante radiativo del escenario considerado es extremo, la eficacia de dichas intervenciones decae y la incertidumbre de los resultados aumenta. En particular, las olas de calor impactan provocando picos en la demanda energética, y estudios de caso muestran que las olas de calor “húmedas” tienen mayor impacto en la demanda energética que las olas de calor “secas”. Además, aquellas caracterizadas como “intensas” son las que provocan los máximos en la demanda energética diaria. This thesis addresses the issue of heat waves affecting central-eastern Argentina from different points of view and scales. Aspects related to the physical processes that catalyze or modulate the occurrence of heat waves, their characteristics, statistics and change projections are studied, and decreasing in scale, impact studies are carried out. The thesis goes beyond the typical comparison of modeled versus observed climatologies, as it includes the analysis of a series of ad-hoc experiments for the study of the processes at the soil-atmosphere interface and a novel characterization of heat waves. Moreover, an innovative and interdisciplinary approach to assess the impact of climate and its variability on the cooling energy demand of social housing is presented. Previous studies have shown that central-eastern Argentina is a climatic transition zone with land-atmosphere coupling. This thesis explores the effect of this coupling (i.e., of the feedback between soil moisture and the atmosphere) on the warm extremes of the temperature field. The analysis of a series of numerical experiments designed ad-hoc for the study of land-atmosphere interactions shows that such interactions affect the tail of the probability distribution of the thermal field, impacting on the warm extremes and on their persistence. Furthermore, the existence of both land-atmosphere coupling and relatively dry soil conditions enhance the occurrence of temperature extremes. In absence of land-atmosphere coupling, the impact of soil moisture conditions (dry or wet) is weaker. These results suggest that the role of interactions between soil moisture and the atmosphere is more important than the impact of stationary soil moisture anomalies. Climate change projections for central-eastern Argentina show increases in the persistence of hot days, warm nights and humid days. These impact on heat waves change projections, which were analyzed and categorized. From a multivariate analysis that includes information on both temperature and moisture content, three main types of heat waves emerge: hot and dry (“dry”), extremely hot and humid (“intense”) and humid with particularly hot nights (“humid”). All of these events are projected to become more extreme in the future. In addition, a higher frequency of occurrence of “intense” events is expected as a consequence of the projected changes for the mean fields: higher temperatures, but with stronger increases in minimum temperatures and in wet bulb temperatures rather than in maximum temperatures. Moreover, heat waves that are considered extreme and unlikely under current climate conditions are typical events in the future climate, and this feature accentuates towards the end of the century and under scenarios of higher greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the variability of heat waves slightly decreases under future climate conditions, when the projected events resemble more the typical event than under present climate conditions. Finally, there are no significant changes in other typical heat wave parameters such as e.g., duration and frequency of events. The residential sector is the second most important sector in terms of energy consumption in the country and its consumption is partially dedicated to maintaining the comfort conditions of its inhabitants. Since both urbanization and extreme heat conditions are expected to keep rising over the coming decades, impact studies on the cooling energy demand of social housing were conducted. Based on the previous experience of the climate and impact communities, a methodology that allows projecting changes in the energy consumption while preserving the information about climate variabilities on different time scales was proposed. Moreover, such methodology allows addressing the uncertainty of the results as an element of judgment for decision makers. It was found that confidence in the results increases as the dwellings’ energy efficiency increases through building interventions that make them less sensitive to the climatic condition. However, when the radiative forcing of the scenario under study is extreme, the effectiveness of such interventions decreases and the uncertainty of the results increases. In particular, heat waves impact by causing energy demand peaks, and case study shows that “wet” heat waves have a greater impact on the energy demand than “dry” heat waves. In addition, those events characterized as “intense” produce the highest peaks of the daily energy demand. Fil: Coronato, Tanea. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina.
- Published
- 2022
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