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Skin ulceration is an important cause of morbidity in systemic sclerosis and can occur at anytime during disease progression. Incident disease cohorts are important for understanding whether skin ulceration represents active vasculopathy versus resultant damage. Biomarkers for skin ulcer pathogenesis, both serum and imaging, are under investigation to elucidate the functional consequences of the structural abnormalities. Novel therapeutics for the treatment of vasculopathy benefit from reliable biomarkers able to predict the disease evolution remains an important unmet need. Nonetheless, a diagnostic approach that captures early skin ulceration and treatments that restore vascular and immune homeostasis is critical for effective systemic sclerosis (SSc) vasculopathy management.

IMPORTANCE: Hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is a potential cure for hematologic cancer but is associated with a risk of relapse and death. Dynamic biomarkers to predict relapse and inform treatment decisions after HCT are a major unmet clinical need. OBJECTIVE: To identify a quantitative characteristic of leukocyte-endothelial interactions after HCT and test its associations with patient outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this prospective single-center cohort study from June 2017 to January 2020, patients of any age, sex, race, and ethnicity who had HCT for hematologic cancer were referred by health care professionals as either suspected of having symptoms or not having symptoms of acute graft-vs-host disease between 25 and 161 days after HCT. Patients underwent noninvasive skin videomicroscopy. Videos of dermal microvascular flow were recorded with a reflectance confocal microscope. Two blinded observers (J.R.P. and Z.Z.) counted leukocytes adherent to and rolling along the vessel wall per hour (A&R). Of 57 enrolled patients, 1 relapsed before imaging and was excluded, resulting in 56 patients included in analyses. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Relapse of cancer, relapse-free survival, and overall survival. RESULTS: Among the 56 patients (median age, 59 years; 38 [68%] male) who underwent imaging a median of 40 days after HCT, 21 had high A&R and 35 had low A&R. After correcting for the revised Disease Risk Index, patients with high A&R had higher rates of relapse (hazard ratio [HR], 4.24; 95% CI, 1.32-13.58; P = .02), reduced relapse-free survival (HR, 3.29; 95% CI, 1.26-8.55; P = .02), and reduced overall survival (HR, 3.06, 95% CI, 1.02-9.19; P = .05). These associations were preserved after correcting for possible confounders, steroid treatment, and acute graft-vs-host disease status. In the prognostic adequacy calculation by using Cox models, the new imaging biomarker (A&R) accounted for 82% to 95% of the prognostic information to predict each outcome. By contrast, the best existing clinical predictor routinely available, the revised Disease Risk Index, accounted for 10% to 28% of the prognostic information in the same model. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study, leukocyte-endothelial interactions, visualized directly in skin after HCT, were associated with the patient outcomes of relapse, relapse-free survival, and overall survival. Assessing this dynamic marker could help patients at high risk for relapse who may benefit from interventions, such as early withdrawal of immunosuppression.