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Uncertainty is a fact of political life but not a fact of political communication. Elites are prone to make confident predictions and downplay uncertainty about future outcomes, presumably fearing that the acknowledgement of uncertainty would undermine public confidence in their predictions and the evidence they are based on. But this calculation might both exaggerate the costs and downplay the potential benefits of reporting uncertainty. On costs, the evidence from previous studies is mixed; on benefits, previous research has neglected the possibility that, by acknowledging that outcomes may be worse than expected, those communicating uncertainty will dampen public reactions to the bad news. Here, based on a two-stage online survey experiment (N = 2,165) from December 2020 about COVID-19 vaccines, we find results suggesting that governments are well advised to communicate uncertainty. The costs at Stage 1 were low: reporting a confidence interval around the safety and effectiveness of a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine did not undermine belief in the statistics or intentions to take the vaccine. And there were indeed benefits at Stage 2: when outcomes turned out to be worse than expected but within that confidence interval, confidence in the vaccine was partly insulated from negative effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some political parties have experienced a resurgence in membership. This article seeks to explain membership surges in the Scottish National Party and Scottish Greens following the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence and an unusually movement-like campaign. Using data from a 2016–17 survey of the parties' memberships, we examine why large numbers joined these pro-independence parties following defeat in the referendum. We demonstrate that the new members had experienced a sense of belonging to a Yes movement during the campaign but were not intensely active; and reasons for joining the parties look more conventional than movement-based. We argue that the referendum created a unique platform for the parties to advertise their objectives on the constitution and other policy areas and thus attract new recruits, few of whom were seeking to maintain the participatory activities that flourished during the referendum. The minority that are active movement-oriented joiners look the least likely to be satisfied by party membership. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. The spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana Clem., is an important outbreaking pest of balsam fir, Abies balsamea (L.) Mill, and black spruce, Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton, Sterns & Poggenb., throughout the boreal forests of North America. 2. Despite several studies reporting higher performance for larvae on balsam fir versus those on black spruce, many females still lay eggs on spruce. In this 2‐year study, we explored possible tri‐trophic trade‐offs associated with host selection taking into account both larval overwintering and feeding periods. 3. Based on field surveys, parasitism rates were significantly higher for overwintering larvae on balsam fir than on black spruce in 2017. 4. Field bioassays confirmed past studies showing 21% higher larval survival on balsam fir versus black spruce, especially when larval emergence was synchronized with host budburst. 5. Considering both overwintering and feeding survival, overall spruce budworm performance was nearly equal between hosts, though larvae gained some advantage on balsam fir if larval feeding was synchronized with budburst. 6. These results suggest that female egg lay on both hosts may be a 'bet‐hedging' strategy that balances trade‐offs between higher parasitism and higher foliage quality on different potential host species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• May minimum temperature is the primary driver of budburst in boreal conifers. • P. mariana showed the highest response to warmer springs and P. glauca the lowest. • Precipitation's effect on budburst is limited when compared to temperature. • Changes in bud phenology may disrupt host-insect interactions. • Budburst timing correlates with latitude and ecological provinces. Budburst is a pivotal event in plant life, representing a crucial response to seasonal meteorological shifts. Boreal tree species exhibit species-specific phenologies, and the rate of phenological changes under warming conditions may differ among these species. In this study we aim to investigate the timing of budburst in three coniferous species [Balsam fir (Abies balsamea), black spruce (Picea mariana) and white spruce (Picea glauca) (Pinaceae)]; identify the main drivers of budburst, its rate of advance and the spatiotemporal patterns of budburst in relation to climate across Canada using a time period of 1980–2021. The timing of budburst was observed at 2839 locations stretching from Alberta to Newfoundland. We developed response functions between budburst and climate (air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation) and used the strongest correlations to test their effect on budburst using species, time and the ecoclimatic framework of Canadian ecoprovinces. We applied spatially constrained multivariate clustering and identified natural budburst clustering across Canada. We found a baseline difference of 17 days in the budburst of black spruce relative to that of balsam fir and white spruce. Mean minimum temperature of May was negatively correlated with budburst date. Black spruce advanced budburst at a rate of change per degree of temperature (−3.33 days °C−1), twice that of balsam fir and white spruce (−1.53 and −1.27 days °C−1, respectively). Cluster distribution of budburst timing matched well with the distribution of Canadian ecoprovinces. Budburst within the clusters followed clinal patterns in temperature across Canada. Mean minimum temperature in May is the main factor driving budburst in northern tree species. Under a warmer spring, we project an earlier budburst, with black spruce being the species expected to show the greatest rate of change. The identified clustering patterns did not vary with precipitation, which represents the primary longitudinal gradient across Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]