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The vast areas of permafrost peatlands in the West Siberian Lowland (WSL) hold a significant amount of carbon currently at risk due to human-caused global warming. The rapid thawing of about 20–60% of the frozen soils of Western Siberia adds to the destruction of the region's signature palsa landscape and the development of thermokarst lakes or fens. Due to the complex interactions between climate and the ecosystem that shape its formation and degradation, permafrost reacts in different ways to environmental changes. Understanding recent changes in Western Siberia requires knowledge of previous environmental transitions, which needs to be enhanced further. This study, aimed to create a hydrological testate amoebae (TA) transfer function (TF) from the Khanymei area in the WSL to reconstruct past hydrological conditions in permafrost peatlands. In addition, this research intended to examine the influence of TA communities living in lichens (genus Cladonia) on the performance of TF by integrating these data with a calibration data set. In the summer of 2019, 76 modern samples of Sphagnum , Cladonia , and vascular plants from permafrost and non-permafrost sites were collected. Moreover, one peat core was extracted from the same area to reconstruct the depth to water table (DWT) quantitatively. The Shannon's diversity index, a quantitative measure of species richness, was calculated for each sample to estimate the TA species diversity in a community. Non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination was applied to the dataset to explore the similarities in TA communities between samples and determine whether the DWT controls the TA community structure. Results showed that the typical transition of TA species along the microtopographic (wet–dry) gradient is influenced by the presence of lichens on the surface of the peatland. Statistical analysis confirmed that TA communities in Cladonia are less affected by DWT. Therefore, the TF was constructed on the entire dataset (n = 75) and the dataset with Cladonia excluded (n = 55). Both these TFs showed satisfactory results. Even though the TF constructed on the entire dataset showed fewer predictive abilities, it provided a complete picture of the current vegetation conditions of Khanymei peatlands, where lichens are an essential element of the ecosystem. Therefore, it is assumed that TF with local environment traits may be more suitable for quantitative reconstruction, particularly in the newly explored permafrost area of Western Siberia. • New hydrological testate amoebae transfer function for permafrost peatlands. • Better capture of local conditions and trends in water level changes. • First use of data on testate amoebae communities in Cladonia in the training set. • Influence of depth to water table on testate amoebae depends on the vegetation type. • Testate amoebae communities in Cladonia are less affected by depth to water table. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU Nature Restoration Law (NRL) is critical for the restoration of degraded ecosystems and active afforestation of degraded peatlands has been suggested as a restoration measure under the NRL. Here, we discuss the current state of scientific evidence on the climate mitigation effects of peatlands under forestry. Afforestation of drained peatlands without restoring their hydrology does not fully restore ecosystem functions. Evidence on long-term climate benefits is lacking and it is unclear whether CO2 sequestration of forest on drained peatland can offset the carbon loss from the peat over the long-term. While afforestation may offer short-term gains in certain cases, it compromises the sustainability of peatland carbon storage. Thus, active afforestation of drained peatlands is not a viable option for climate mitigation under the EU Nature Restoration Law and might even impede future rewetting/restoration efforts. Instead, restoring hydrological conditions through rewetting is crucial for effective peatland restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In northern peatlands, reduction of Sphagnum dominance in favour of vascular vegetation is likely to influence biogeochemical processes. Such vegetation changes occur as the water table lowers and temperatures rise. To test which of these factors has a significant influence on peatland vegetation, we conducted a 3‐year manipulative field experiment in Linje mire (northern Poland). We manipulated the peatland water table level (wet, intermediate and dry; on average the depth of the water table was 17.4, 21.2 and 25.3 cm respectively), and we used open‐top chambers (OTCs) to create warmer conditions (on average increase of 1.2°C in OTC plots compared to control plots). Peat drying through water table lowering at this local scale had a larger effect than OTC warming treatment per see on Sphagnum mosses and vascular plants. In particular, ericoid shrubs increased with a lower water table level, while Sphagnum decreased. Microclimatic measurements at the plot scale indicated that both water‐level and temperature, represented by heating degree days (HDDs), can have significant effects on the vegetation. In a large‐scale complementary vegetation gradient survey replicated in three peatlands positioned along a transitional oceanic–continental and temperate–boreal (subarctic) gradient (France–Poland–Western Siberia), an increase in ericoid shrubs was marked by an increase in phenols in peat pore water, resulting from higher phenol concentrations in vascular plant biomass. Our results suggest a shift in functioning from a mineral‐N‐driven to a fungi‐mediated organic‐N nutrient acquisition with shrub encroachment. Both ericoid shrub encroachment and higher mean annual temperature in the three sites triggered greater vascular plant biomass and consequently the dominance of decomposers (especially fungi), which led to a feeding community dominated by nematodes. This contributed to lower enzymatic multifunctionality. Our findings illustrate mechanisms by which plants influence ecosystem responses to climate change, through their effect on microbial trophic interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Plants produce a wide diversity of metabolites. Yet, our understanding of how shifts in plant metabolites as a response to climate change feedback on ecosystem processes remains scarce. Here, we test to what extent climate warming shifts the seasonality of metabolites produced by Sphagnum mosses, and what are the consequences of these shifts for peatland C uptake.We used a reciprocal transplant experiment along a climate gradient in Europe to simulate climate change. We evaluated the responses of primary and secondary metabolites in five Sphagnum species and related their responses to gross ecosystem productivity (GEP).When transplanted to a warmer climate, Sphagnum species showed consistent responses to warming, with an upregulation of either their primary or secondary metabolite according to seasons. Moreover, these shifts were correlated to changes in GEP, especially in spring and autumn.Our results indicate that the Sphagnum metabolome is very plastic and sensitive to warming. We also show that warming‐induced changes in the seasonality of Sphagnum metabolites have consequences on peatland GEP. Our findings demonstrate the capacity for plant metabolic plasticity to impact ecosystem C processes and reveal a further mechanism through which Sphagnum could shape peatland responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human impact on Central European forests dates back thousands of years. In this study we reanalyzed 36 published pollen data sets with robust chronologies from Polish Lowlands to determine the patterns of large-scale forest decline after the Migration Period (fourth to sixth century CE). The study revealed substantial heterogeneity in the old-growth forest decline patterns. Using new high-resolution studies, we could better understand the timing of this transition related to increasing economic development. After the Migration Period, forest expansion continued until the seventh to ninth centuries cal. CE, when the dawn of Slavic culture resulted in large-scale forest decline, especially in north-western and north-central Poland. Later, forest decline was recorded mainly in north-eastern Poland and was related to Prussian settlements, including activities associated with the Teutonic Order, as well as with new settlements from the fourteenth century. The composite picture shows a varied spatio-temporal forest loss and transition towards the present-day, human activity dominated landscapes. However, some sites, such as in north-eastern Poland, are characterized by a less abrupt critical transition. The pristine nature of the oak-hornbeam forest had already been destroyed in Early Medieval times (eighth to ninth centuries cal. CE) and the potential for recovery was largely lost. Our study has confirmed previous assumptions that the decline of hornbeam across the Polish Lowlands may be an early indicator of local settlement processes, preceding severe forest loss, and establishment of permanent agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands perform many important ecosystem functions at both the local and global scale, including hydrologic and climatic regulation. Although peatlands often act as climatic microrefugia, they have rarely been the subject of long-term microclimatic studies. In this study, we aimed to compare the local climatic conditions of a mid-forest mire to that of an open area and examine the differences in microclimates within the mire based on plant community diversity, shading, and water table depths. The peatland studied in this work was significantly cooler than the reference site, mainly due to a higher decline in nighttime air temperatures. However, the daily maximum air temperature near the ground was often higher. We also noticed that microclimates significantly differed within the studied peatland. Wet and shaded microsites were cooler than the sites having a lower water level and receiving higher amounts of solar radiation. The results of the study suggest that peatlands have locally cooler climates, and thus can serve as climate change refugia. These findings can help us interpret reconstructed data from the peat archive, and, when combined with experiments, identify tipping points for peatland ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Soil photoautotrophic prokaryotes and micro‐eukaryotes – known as soil algae – are, together with heterotrophic microorganisms, a constitutive part of the microbiome in surface soils. Similar to plants, they fix atmospheric carbon (C) through photosynthesis for their own growth, yet their contribution to global and regional biogeochemical C cycling still remains quantitatively elusive.Here, we compiled an extensive dataset on soil algae to generate a better understanding of their distribution across biomes and predict their productivity at a global scale by means of machine learning modelling.We found that, on average, (5.5 ± 3.4) × 106 algae inhabit each gram of surface soil. Soil algal abundance especially peaked in acidic, moist and vegetated soils. We estimate that, globally, soil algae take up around 3.6 Pg C per year, which corresponds to c. 6% of the net primary production of terrestrial vegetation.We demonstrate that the C fixed by soil algae is crucial to the global C cycle and should be integrated into land‐based efforts to mitigate C emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sphagnum mosses are key to northern peatland carbon sequestration. They have a range of morphological and anatomical characteristics that allow them to cope with environmental stress. Sphagnum also produces a plethora of biochemicals that may prevent stress‐induced cell‐damage. However, the linkages between Sphagnum anatomical, morphological and biochemical traits (i.e. metabolites, pigments and antioxidant enzyme activities) are poorly known, neither are their joint responses to environmental change. Here, we quantify and link an array of Sphagnum anatomical, morphological and biochemical traits in five Sphagnum‐dominated peatlands distributed along a latitudinal gradient in Europe, covering a range of regional and local environmental conditions. Sphagnum morphological and anatomical traits were intrinsically linked to Sphagnum metabolites and enzyme activities, and these relationships were driven by shared responses to local and regional environmental factors. More particularly, we found that Sphagnum traits can be grouped into four clusters related to growth, biomass, defense and water stress tolerance. We used regional and local environmental conditions data to further show that biochemicals and their specific linkages with some morphological traits describe dimensions of physiology not captured by anatomical and morphological traits alone. These results suggest that Sphagnum morphology and function is rooted in the metabolome, and that incorporating biochemicals into the functional trait space concept can enhance our mechanistic understanding and predictive power in Sphagnum ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Kettle-hole peatlands have a high potential for carbon sequestration. • The recorded mean peat carbon accumulation rate exceeds ca 3 times the European mean. • Sphagnum -dominated environs with mixotrophic testate amoebae support carbon uptake. Understanding carbon sequestration patterns in time and space is crucial for models and future projections of carbon uptake. However, their past provides an insight to this understanding, and peatlands play an essential role in the carbon cycle. Hence, peat carbon accumulation rates (PCAR) were reconstructed for the last ±1500 years in three Polish kettle-hole peatlands (Jaczno, Głęboczek and Pawski Ług bogs). Absolute chronologies, retrieved from the Bayesian age-depth models based on high-resolution 14C AMS dating, provided good time control, whereas the selected time interval spanned a broad spectrum of environmental changes and human activity. An additional variable was connected to climate, as the chosen sites are situated along the west-east gradient of northern Poland. The aim was to find factors responsible for changes in carbon accumulation, so the results of PCAR were combined with pollen, testate amoebae, plant macrofossil, and charcoal data. The research showed that the investigated peatlands varied regarding local environmental conditions (e.g. water level), peatland development, vegetation changes, and fire activity. Generally, the PCAR values were higher in the Sphagnum -dominated sections of the profiles with high shares of mixotrophic testate amoebae unless fire hampered the carbon sequestration. However, our research showed that the changes in carbon uptake resulted from various overlapping factors rather than just one. Nevertheless, high values of PCAR in Jaczno and Pawski Ług (mean 74.6 and 79.64 g C/m2/yr, respectively) point to kettle-hole peatlands being exceptionally efficient in carbon sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The exploitation of peatlands in Estonia, which began in the 17th century, has degraded them to a great extent. Consequently, cutover and drained peatlands have become the sources of CO 2. Global warming has led to a need for policies focusing on the protection and restoration of drained and degraded peatlands. Hence, to compare the effect/progress of restoration with the past pristine ecosystem baseline before the peatland was destroyed by cutting, we examined a peat core from North Estonia using chronology based on 14C by analyzing several proxies in high resolution including testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, and diatoms. The results revealed a striking ecological contrast between the pristine (ca. 2 kyrs) and restored state (currently) of the peatland. The pristine state was characterized by a domination of Sphagnum fuscum / rubellum and Archerella flavum , suggesting that extraction area of Hara peatland was a wet and stable ombrotrophic bog. As a result of peat exploitation, deposits comprising the last ca. 2 kyrs were cut. In turn an important feature of the restored section of the peat core was the domination of a green algae (Chlorophyta) and Eriophorum vaginatum as well as testate amoebae species Arcella discoides , which is considered an indicator of hydrological instability. The main difference between the predisturbed and restored parts of the peat core section was that a minor cover of peat-forming Sphagnum and mixotrophic testate amoebae was present in the top inundated part. We state that a healthy raised bog—the target of restoration—should consist abundant mixotrophic testate amoebae such as Archerella flavum and Hyalosphenia papilio which are good indicators of a well-functioning Sphagnum bog ecosystem even if the Sphagnum species differ from the reconstructed ecological baseline conditions. Our study highlights the extensive damage caused to the peat-forming ombrotrophic peatland by extraction and how difficult, challenging, and time-consuming is the process of ecological restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sphagnum mosses are keystone species in northern peatlands. Notably, they play an important role in peatland carbon (C) cycling by regulating the composition and activity of microbial communities. However, it remains unclear whether information on Sphagnum phylogeny and/or traits‐based composition (i.e. anatomical and morphological traits and metabolites) can be used to predict the structure of microbial communities and their functioning. Here we evaluated whether Sphagnum phylogeny and traits predict additional variation in peatland microbial community composition and functioning beyond what would be predicted from environmental characteristics (i.e. climatic and edaphic conditions).We collected Sphagnum and microbial data from five European peatlands distributed along a latitudinal gradient from northern Sweden to southern France. These data allowed us to assess Sphagnum anatomical and morphological traits and metabolites at different sites along changing environmental conditions. Using structural equation modelling (SEM) and phylogenetic distance analyses, we investigated the role of Sphagnum traits in shaping microbial community composition and functioning along with environmental conditions.We show that microbial community composition and traits varied independently from both Sphagnum phylogeny and the latitudinal gradient. Specifically, the addition of Sphagnum traits to climatic and edaphic variables to the SEM allowed it to explain a larger proportion of the explained variance (R2). This observation was most apparent for the biomass of decomposers (+42%) and phototrophs (+19%), as well as for growth yield microbial traits (+10%). As such, that Sphagnum metabolites were important drivers for microbial community structure and traits, while Sphagnum anatomical and morphological traits were poor predictors.Synthesis. Our results highlight that Sphagnum metabolites are more likely to influence peatland microbial food web structure and functioning than Sphagnum anatomical and morphological traits. We provide further evidence that measurements of the plant metabolome, when combined with classical functional traits, improve our understanding of how the plants interact with their associated microbiomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands are important records of past environmental changes. Based on a multiproxy analysis, the main factors influencing the evolution of a peatland can be divided into autogenic and allogenic. Among the important allogenic factors, apart from climate change, are deforestation and drainage, which are directly associated with human impact. Numerous consequences arise from these processes, the most important of which are physical and chemical denudation in the catchment and the related hydrological disturbances in the catchment and peatland. The present study determined how human activities and the past climatic variability mutually influenced the development of a small peatland ecosystem. The main goals of the study were: (1) to trace the local changes of the peatland history over the past 600 years, (2) to investigate their relationship with changes in regional hydroclimate patterns, and (3) to estimate the sensitivity of a small peatland to natural and human impact. Our reconstructions were based on a multiproxy analysis, including the analysis of pollen, macrofossils, Chironomidae, Cladocera, and testate amoebae. Our results showed that, depending on the changes in water level, the history of peatland can be divided into three phases as follows: 1/the phase of stable natural conditions, 2/phase of weak changes, and 3/phase of significant changes in the catchment. Additionally, to better understand the importance of the size of catchment and the size of the depositional basin in the evolution of the studied peatland ecosystem, we compared data from two peatlands – large and small – located close to each other. The results of our study indicated that "size matters," and that larger peatlands are much more resilient and resistant to rapid changes occurring in the direct catchment due to human activities, whereas small peatlands are more sensitive and perfect as archives of environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phototrophic microbes, also known as micro‐algae, display a high abundance in many terrestrial surface soils. They contribute to atmospheric carbon dioxide fluxes through their photosynthesis, and thus regulate climate similar to plants. However, microbial photosynthesis remains overlooked in most terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we hypothesise that phototrophic microbes significantly contribute to peatland C uptake, unless environmental conditions limit their development and their photosynthetic activity.To test our hypothesis, we studied phototrophic microbial communities in five peatlands distributed along a latitudinal gradient in Europe. By means of metabarcoding, microscopy and cytometry analyses, as well as measures of photosynthesis, we investigated the diversity, absolute abundance and photosynthetic rates of the phototrophic microbial communities.We identified 351 photosynthetic prokaryotic and eukaryotic operational taxonomic units (OTUs) across the five peatlands. We found that water availability and plant composition were important determinants of the composition and the structure of phototrophic microbial communities. Despite environmental shifts in community structure and composition, we showed that microbial C fixation rates remained similar along the latitudinal gradient. Our results further revealed that phototrophic microbes accounted for approximately 10% of peatland C uptake.Synthesis. Our findings show that phototrophic microbes are extremely diverse and abundant in peatlands. While species turnover with environmental conditions, microbial photosynthesis similarly contributed to peatland C uptake at all latitudes. We estimate that phototrophic microbes take up around 75 MT CO2 per year in northern peatlands. This amount roughly equals the magnitude of projected peatland C loss due to climate warming and highlights the importance of phototrophic microbes for the peatland C cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources and associated ecosystems are becoming highly endangered due to ongoing global environmental changes. Spatial ecological modelling is a promising toolbox for understanding the past, present and future distribution and diversity patterns in groundwater-dependent ecosystems, such as fens, springs, streams, reed beds or wet grasslands. Still, the lack of detailed water chemistry maps prevents the use of reasonable models to be applied on continental and global scales. Being major determinants of biological composition and diversity of groundwater-dependent ecosystems, groundwater pH and calcium are of utmost importance. Here we developed an up-to-date European map of groundwater pH and Ca, based on 7577 measurements of near-surface groundwater pH and calcium distributed across Europe. In comparison to the existing European groundwater maps, we included several times more sites, especially in the regions rich in spring and fen habitats, and filled the apparent gaps in eastern and southeastern Europe. We used random forest models and regression kriging to create continuous maps of water pH and calcium at the continental scale, which is freely available also as a raster map (Hájek et al., 2020b; 10.5281/zenodo.4139912). Lithology had a higher importance than climate for both pH and calcium. The previously recognised latitudinal and altitudinal gradients were rediscovered with much refined regional patterns, as associated with bedrock variation. For ecological models of distribution and diversity of many terrestrial ecosystems, our new map based on field groundwater measurements is more suitable than maps of soil pH, which mirror not only bedrock chemistry but also vegetation-dependent soil processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • All proxies showed a shift towards drier environmental conditions starting from 920 cal. CE. • Human activities and climate change left clear signatures in the Wölflmoor peat bog. • eDNA metabarcoding gave results with similar trends as the other proxies but highlighting some methodological limitations. In the last decades, climate and human activities significantly affected ecosystems, particularly in mountain areas. Whereas the Alps have been extensively studied for palaeoclimatic reconstructions, little information is available about ecological changes, especially in the Southeastern Alps. This study presents a palaeoclimatic and palaeoecological reconstruction from a 1500-years-old mountain peatland record: Wölflmoor, Bozen (Italy). Through Physico-chemical proxies, testate amoeba, pollen, plant macro-fossils, and environmental DNA (eDNA) analyses, we pursued a twofold objective: 1) reconstructing the palaeoenvironmental variations of the peatland and the surrounding environment to identify the main dry/wet periods, and their correlations with climate and human activities; 2) testing the use of eDNA from a peatland in palaeoecological reconstructions. The dating highlighted a distinct change of age at a depth of 55.5–50.5 cm (ca. 800–930 calibrated years), which suggests a depositional gap (hiatus), at least in this section, occurred during the Medieval Warm Period, due to the increase in air temperature. However, the possible exploitation of the peatland by humans cannot be excluded. Indeed, the increase of Poaceae, Cerealia type, and Secale cereale , and the reduction of Fagus sylvatica and Quercus presented a high human pressure starting around 720 cal. CE. Environmental DNA metabarcoding results showed similar trends. However, it gave limitations such as the preferential amplification of the most abundant species, leading to a relatively small number of detected taxa. This is one of the first studies of eDNA metabarcoding from peatland; thus, we argue that ample room for improvement is expected in a short time, making eDNA metabarcoding a valuable complementary approach, primarily when both flora and fauna taxa are targeted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Multi-proxy palaeoecological studies in the Białowieża Primary Forest. • Palaeoecological analysis as a reliable tool to determinate state of the peatland and forest ecosystems conditions. • Peatland ecosystems in the Białowieża Forest may no longer be in a pristine state. • Permanent high fire activity between ca. 1650 and 1920 in the Białowieża Forest. The Białowieża Primeval Forest is one of the most pristine forested and peatland areas in Europe, as recognized by its status as the World Biosphere Reserve. Palaeoecological analyzes offer the possibility of establishing a record of ecosystem change over time, and therefore setting reference conditions for their assessment, protection and restoration. To assess the impact of hydrological changes, fire and pollution (dust, metals from smelting) on peatland and forest ecosystems, we carried out high-resolution, multi-proxy palaeoecological investigations of two peat cores (50 cm long) from nearby locations at a peatland located in the protected area (nature reserve) of the Białowieża Forest (CE Poland). Our study revealed that: i) between about 1780 and 1920 CE high fire activity likely caused by humans led to a partly decline in dwarf shrubs at the sampling sites; ii) between about 1910 and 1930 CE distinctive changes in local and regional plant succession took place that can be considered as a sign of disturbance in the peatland ecosystems; iii) during the last three decades we recorded a recent decrease of trace metals and pollen indicating a decrease in human activity. These changes are synchronous with a decrease of industrial activity and curbing of emission through legislation as well as the ongoing depopulation of villages in E Poland that started in 1990. Our data suggest that even well-preserved peatlands, located in protected areas might be far from their pristine state, predominantly due to disturbance effects from the past still lingering on. Nevertheless, the studied area remains one of the best-preserved forest ecosystems in Europe, despite the negative impact of human activity (deforestation, fires, hunting) over the past few centuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the contribution of current summer warming to the widespread drying of European peatlands is undeniable, summer temperature fluctuations alone are unable to explain all the hydrological shifts of these ecosystems. We aim to determine whether the current coupling of high summer temperatures and low water tables of peatlands in northern Poland is recent or has been stable over long timescales, and to infer the climatic context driving past relationships between temperature and peatland hydrology. We compare the previously published 4000-year long paleohydrological record from Kusowo bog with a new chironomid-based summer temperature record covering the last 4.5 ka from nearby (~7 km) Lake Spore. Although several simultaneous shifts in our hydrological and temperature reconstructions are evident on multi-decadal to centennial timescales, for instance during the peak cooling of the Migration Period or Little Ice Age (~1.4 and 0.4 cal ka, respectively), the records reveal mostly independent fluctuations. However, the relatively high uncertainty of our quantitative estimates suggests caution is warranted when inferring the strength of the relationship between the reconstructed variables at this temporal resolution. However, at centennial to millennial timescales, the relationship between the records is surprisingly strong. Overall, warmer summers (mean July temperature = 18.7 °C) before ~2.3 cal. ka corresponded well with lower ground water tables at Kusowo bog (mean = 11.2 cm), whereas cooler summers in the following period (mean = 17.4 °C) were accompanied by higher water tables (mean = 7.9 cm). Particularly wet bog conditions during the last ~0.7 ka were also the coldest. The finding that on long timescales the drying of Kusowo bog coincided with warming suggests a persistent regional climate pattern in which drought conditions change along with summer temperatures. If this millennial-scale pattern holds for the projected warming, further peatland drying can be expected in northern Poland. • We compare paleohydrological record from a bog with a summer temperature reconstruction • On millennial timescales, dry conditions at the bog were concurrent with high temperatures • Conditions at the bog were generally drier before 2.3 cal. ka BP and wetter thereafter • Temperature rise above the late-Holocene maximum can result in unprecedented drying [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]