Search

Contemporary societies have challenges in achieving sustainable development, while African economies remain quite distant from this ideal course for sustainable growth. Likewise, official statistics in South Africa show a wide gap between male and female involvement in economic activities. Given this, the study investigates the connection between three dimensions of sustainable development and female advancement in South Africa using auto-regressive disturbed lags (ARDL), Structural Vector autoregressive (SVAR) and Ganger non-causality approach. The three dimensions of sustainable development considered in this study are economic, environmental and social, proxies by adjusted net national savings, carbon emissions and adjusted net national income per capita, respectively. The female advancement indicators are proxies by employment, wages and salaries, and secondary school enrolment. The result from the ARDL shows that female advancement indicators promote short (SR) and long-run (LR) economic sustainability. Also, female wages and salaries have a positive relationship with carbon emissions in the SR but not significantly in the LR. At the same time, female employment and secondary school enrolment have a positive relationship with carbon emissions in the SR but are negative in the LR. The primary causes affecting long-term environmental sustainability are GDP per capita, financial development, population density, trade openness and urbanisation. Also, female advancement indicators promote social sustainability, especially employment, wages and salaries. More so, the SVAR results show that the forecasting error shock of GDP has minimal effect on carbon emission with notable variation in the population density. The causality result shows a unidirectional relationship between economic sustainability and female secondary school enrolment, environmental sustainability and female secondary school enrolment, and social sustainability and female secondary school enrolment, all flowing to female secondary school enrolment. Based on the findings, the study recommended improving female educational standards and increasing involvement in economic participation.

Whether in developed or developing countries, the construction industry had a vital part to play concerning the GDP throughout the ages. The increasing inflation since the pandemic affected numerous main sectors, no doubt construction industry is not different and has not been immune to. The presence of inflation and resultant interest rate influence the growth of the economic sector. There have been no reported studies to evaluate the impact on construction industry, nor a comparative analysis at continental level for selective countries. The study designed to explore the long-run (LR) and causality (CA) of the inflation and interest rate on the GDP and the construction sector depending on the four selected variables and models from 1991 to 2022 on nine selected countries from Americas, Asia and Europe that are facing ever-rising inflation in most recent years. Data of the study have been collated from official databases, where the sources are introduced. The research concluded that the interest rate and inflation have positive bidirectional long run estimates in seven countries which that impact negatively on the economic growth. However, it is also found that the impact of inflation and interest rate on the GDP and the construction sector differs from country to country. It is shown that the high inflation and interest rate issue can also pushes GDP upwards, not necessarily on real value.

We use novel, large-scale data on 17.5 million Americans to study how a policy-driven increase in economic resources affects children's long-term outcomes. Using the 2000 Census and 2001–13 American Community Survey linked to the Social Security Administration's NUMIDENT, we leverage the county-level rollout of the Food Stamps program between 1961 and 1975. We find that children with access to greater economic resources before age five have better outcomes as adults. The treatment-on-the-treated effects show a 6% of a standard deviation improvement in human capital, 3% of a standard deviation increase in economic self-sufficiency, 8% of a standard deviation increase in the quality of neighbourhood of residence, a 1.2-year increase in life expectancy, and a 0.5 percentage-point decrease in likelihood of being incarcerated. These estimates suggest that Food Stamps' transfer of resources to families is a highly cost-effective investment in young children, yielding a marginal value of public funds of approximately sixty-two. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Along with the rapid growth of technology, payment instruments are also changing. Electronic money is slowly but surely replacing the role of paper money and coins. The emergence of electronic money can provide convenience for consumers, it can lead to an increase in the demand for goods and services that ultimately leads to demand-pull inflation.The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of electronic money transactions (both in natural and in value terms) on inflation growth. By using the Chow Breakpoint Test, Difference-in-Differences and Propensity Score Matching shows that the inflation trend has tended to decline since the Bank of Indonesia launched its national non-cash campaign.By using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method was revealed that an increase in the volume of electronic money transactions in the long-term may affect a decrease in inflation, but not in the short-term. The rate of interest of the Bank of Indonesia, the growth of lending and GDP led to the decline in inflation.It was concluded that the Bank of Indonesia could expand the use of electronic money to manipulate inflation levels in the long-term. The policy that can be implemented by Bank Indonesia is to distribute electronic money infrastructure services more evenly and increase the socialization of the use of electronic money, especially in remote areas.

We derive a model in which we show that economic growth is directly affected by a change in marginal propensity to consume. We apply the vector error correction model, results from which show that Gini coefficient – a measure of income inequality – negatively affects marginal propensity to consume. Therefore, we concluded that a rise in income inequality would negatively affect marginal propensity to consume and thereby economic growth in the long-term and the short-term both. The short-term effect will show up with a one-period lag. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study utilises the stock market data provided by the Australian Equity Database to analyse the long‐run relationship between Australian stock returns and key macroeconomic variables over the period 1926–2017. To measure the diverse risk factors in the stock market, we examine the possible determinants in four main categories: real, financial, domestic and international. Our results reveal that historical stock returns are strongly connected to financial and international factors as compared to real and domestic factors. Both the 1973–1974 OPEC Oil Price Crisis and 2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis had dampening effects on stock returns. There is a positive association between the US and Australian stock markets in the long‐run. These findings on stock market dynamics and their linkages with domestic and international macroeconomic policy changes in the long‐run have important implications for traders and practitioners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the long-run determinants of US outward FDI (OFDI) stock, focusing mainly on the Euro Area (EA) for the period 1985–2019. We consider a sample of 54 developed and emerging host countries representing over 70% of the total US OFDI stock. We aim to capture different determinants by country groups zooming in on the European Union (EU). We implement a Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Pooled Mean Group (DCCEPMG) estimator for this aim. Our econometric approach is especially suited for analyzing integrated economic areas as it allows us to deal with cross-section dependence (CSD), non-stationarity, structural breaks, and slope homogeneity usually present in large panel data. Our main results suggest that horizontal (HFDI) and vertical (VFDI) strategies coexist for all country groups. However, as we move towards more homogeneous groups, the results show the greater importance of VFDI. Additionally, we find that some variables have a common long-run effect on US OFDI, especially for smaller and more homogeneous groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism has become one of the most important sectors in many countries, significantly contributing to their economic growth and development. However, the expansion of tourism has also brought about various environmental and social challenges. The relationship between tourism, economic growth, trade openness, and the environment is diverse and complex. The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the international tourism development index, GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, trade openness index as well as the energy intensity index in EU 27, over the 1995–2019 period. A composite index for international tourism was developed using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Panel Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is used to reveal the long- and short-run impact of GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, trade openness index as well as the energy intensity index on the tourism development index. Panel ARDL estimates confirm some of our research hypotheses: at the level of EU countries, there is a short-run relationship between tourism and GDP per capita, but only in a few EU countries, trade openness influences tourism development index. Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test confirms long-run feedback relationship between tourism development index and trade openness, between tourism development index and CO2 emissions, and between tourism development index and GDP and unilateral causality running from tourism development index towards energy efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether in developed or developing countries, the construction industry had a vital part to play concerning the GDP throughout the ages. The increasing inflation since the pandemic affected numerous main sectors, no doubt construction industry is not different and has not been immune to. The presence of inflation and resultant interest rate influence the growth of the economic sector. There have been no reported studies to evaluate the impact on construction industry, nor a comparative analysis at continental level for selective countries. The study designed to explore the long-run (LR) and causality (CA) of the inflation and interest rate on the GDP and the construction sector depending on the four selected variables and models from 1991 to 2022 on nine selected countries from Americas, Asia and Europe that are facing ever-rising inflation in most recent years. Data of the study have been collated from official databases, where the sources are introduced. The research concluded that the interest rate and inflation have positive bidirectional long run estimates in seven countries which that impact negatively on the economic growth. However, it is also found that the impact of inflation and interest rate on the GDP and the construction sector differs from country to country. It is shown that the high inflation and interest rate issue can also pushes GDP upwards, not necessarily on real value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If the problem of population ageing persists and the working-age population in OECD countries shrinks, then according to the neoclassical theory of economic growth, capital inflows into the OECD countries will decrease. Based on this premise, we investigate the dynamic links between the working-age population (% of total population) and net FDI inflows (% of GDP), controlling for trade openness, domestic investment and market size for a panel of 22 OECD countries over the period of 1972-2019. Bidirectional causalities are identified between the working-age population (% of total population) and net FDI inflows (% of GDP). A decline in the working-age population (% of total population) is found to be associated with a significant decline in net FDI inflows (% of GDP). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Contaduría y Administración is the property of Facultad de Contaduria y Administracion-Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

J.M. Keynes in his celebrated "General Theory" works on a temporal / analytical horizon of "short-run", as the capital stock of the economy is kept constant. Alternatively, considering a horizon in which the capital stock can vary, this essay rethinks the "liquidity trap" framework, observing its consequences on the level of employment, as well as on the level of utilization of the economy's productive capacity. Based on the inner logic of the "General Theory", it is concluded that the Keynesian restriction of demand will be kept in the "long-run", but through the reduction of the capital stock and not via unemployment, recovering the possibility of full-employment even in a scenario of Keynesian uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The macroeconomics and traditional stock market nexus is widely explored in the extant literature, but few studies have focused on the impact of macroeconomics on Islamic stock markets. In fact, to our knowledge, only one or two prior studies have looked into both conventional and Islamic stock markets at the same time to see the impact of macroeconomics for comparison purposes. However, these studies have found differing views. Besides, no study has looked into the issue from the standpoint of Bangladesh. To close the gap, the study primarily explores the effect of macroeconomic variables on Islamic and conventional stock indices. Also, it looks at which index (Islamic or conventional) is more susceptible to macroeconomic shocks. The DSEX Shariah Index and the DSE Broad Index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) are chosen as Islamic and conventional stock indices, respectively. In contrast, inflation rate, money supply, interest rate, and exchange rate are selected as proxies of macroeconomic variables. Using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Granger causality approaches for the monthly data from January 2014 to June 2021, our findings indicate that aggregate money supply has a positive long-term influence on both Islamic and conventional indices, whereas interest rates have a negative impact. Conversely, in the short run, the interest rate has a favorable impact on both indices. However, inflation only has a short-term impact on the Islamic stock index. Overall, the findings suggest that both indices behave almost analogously with the macroeconomic variables. Therefore, Islamic investors can undoubtedly choose Islamic stocks for their portfolios without sacrificing significant financial losses. Our study also provides some vital policy implications. Since our study finds a strong link between macroeconomics and stock markets, we urge the monetary authority to align their policies with those of the stock markets in Bangladesh because there were previously some inconsistencies in the policies of the monetary authority and stock markets, which appeared to be partly responsible for the recent stock market crash in Bangladesh in 2010-2011. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To capture the dynamics of idiosyncratic volatility of stock returns over different horizons and investigate the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and expected stock returns, this paper develops and estimates a parsimonious model of idiosyncratic volatility consisting of a short-run and a long-run component. The conditional short-run and long-run components are found to be positively and negatively related to expected stock returns, respectively. The positive relation between the short-run component and stock returns may be caused by investors requiring compensation for bearing idiosyncratic volatility risk when facing trading frictions and hold underdiversified portfolios. The negative relationship between the long-run component and stock returns may reflect the fact that stocks with high long-run idiosyncratic volatility are less exposed to systematic risk factors and, hence, earn lower returns. Moreover, the low-risk exposure of stocks characterized by high idiosyncratic volatility lends support to real-option-based mechanisms to explain this negative relation. In particular, the systematic risk of a firm with abundant growth options crucially depends upon the risk exposure of these options. The value of growth options could rise significantly because of convexity when the increase in idiosyncratic volatility occurs over long horizons. And growth options' systematic risk could fall because the relative magnitude of their value in relation to systematic risk factors decreases. This paper was accepted by David Simchi-Levi, finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adverse impacts of climate change have emerged as one of the primary threats to human development; however, the climate change economic impact evaluation literature has mostly estimated effects under an assumption of full certainty. This article aims to estimate the long-run impact of climate change on household development resilience. To do so, we use the China Health and Nutrition Survey, which contains detailed longitudinal socioeconomic information from 1989 to 2015, and matches them to weather data. We find that climate change negatively impacts household development resilience. This negative impact stems from both a decline in upward mobility of households and an increase in downside risks. In other words, the rise in temperatures not only reduces the pace of household economic growth but also amplifies economic volatility, elevating consumption risk for households. The effects are driven by the decrease in agricultural production output and the risk of off-farm income. However, longer-run adaptation has offset 22.09% of the short-run effects of climate change on household development resilience. In contrast, climate adaptation mitigates household welfare loss to a greater extent through agricultural input adjustments and income diversification in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stock variance, which is the sum of squared daily returns on the S&P 500, implies the level of investor fear in stock market and performs well at predicting the return of index commodity futures. This prediction still holds after controlling for the sample period and macroeconomic variables. Also, the fear index performs very well at predicting index commodity futures returns out-of-sample, and the asset allocation exercise based on predictive regressions also shows that stock variance generates economic performance. The results remain robust while considering different macroeconomic conditions, such as recession (expansion), contango (backwardation), or inflation up (down). • Stock variance, the fear index, performs well in commodity return prediction. • The predictability test spans from 1926 to 2016. • The results remain robust after controlling various financial and economic variables. • The predictive power remains strong under different macroeconomic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]