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2. Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios

Author

Dekker, Mark M., Daioglou, Vassilis, Pietzcker, Robert, Rodrigues, Renato, Boer, Harmen-Sytze de, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Fotiou, Theofano, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Gusheva, Ema, Harmsen, Mathijs, Huppmann, Daniel, Kannavou, Maria, Krey, Volker, Lombardi, Francesco, Luderer, Gunnar, Pfenninger, Stefan, Tsiropoulos, Ioannis, Zakeri, Behnam, Zwaan, Bob van der, Usher, Will, Vuuren, Detlef van, Dekker, Mark M., Daioglou, Vassilis, Pietzcker, Robert, Rodrigues, Renato, Boer, Harmen-Sytze de, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Fotiou, Theofano, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Gusheva, Ema, Harmsen, Mathijs, Huppmann, Daniel, Kannavou, Maria, Krey, Volker, Lombardi, Francesco, Luderer, Gunnar, Pfenninger, Stefan, Tsiropoulos, Ioannis, Zakeri, Behnam, Zwaan, Bob van der, Usher, Will, and Vuuren, Detlef van

Abstract

Energy models are used to study emissions mitigation pathways, such as those compatible with the Paris Agreement goals. These models vary in structure, objectives, parameterization and level of detail, yielding differences in the computed energy and climate policy scenarios. To study model differences, diagnostic indicators are common practice in many academic fields, for example, in the physical climate sciences. However, they have not yet been applied systematically in mitigation literature, beyond addressing individual model dimensions. Here we address this gap by quantifying energy model typology along five dimensions: responsiveness, mitigation strategies, energy supply, energy demand and mitigation costs and effort, each expressed through several diagnostic indicators. The framework is applied to a diagnostic experiment with eight energy models in which we explore ten scenarios focusing on Europe. Comparing indicators to the ensemble yields comprehensive ‘energy model fingerprints’, which describe systematic model behaviour and contextualize model differences for future multi-model comparison studies.

Published
2023

3. The mutual benefits of comparing energy system models and integrated assessment models

Author

Henke, Hauke, Dekker, Mark, Lombardi, Francesco, Pietzcker, Robert, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Zakeri, Behnam, Rodrigues, Renato, Sitarz, Joanna, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Tatarewicz, Igor, Fotiou, Theofano, Lewarski, Michał, Huppmann, Daniel, Kavvadias, Kostas, Zwaan, Bob van der, Usher, Will, Henke, Hauke, Dekker, Mark, Lombardi, Francesco, Pietzcker, Robert, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Zakeri, Behnam, Rodrigues, Renato, Sitarz, Joanna, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Tatarewicz, Igor, Fotiou, Theofano, Lewarski, Michał, Huppmann, Daniel, Kavvadias, Kostas, Zwaan, Bob van der, and Usher, Will

Abstract

Background: The transition to a carbon neutral society such as that envisaged in the European Union Green Deal requires careful and comprehensive planning. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) and energy system models (ESMs) are both commonly used for policy advice and in the process of policy design. In Europe, a vast landscape of these models has emerged and both kinds of models have been part of numerous model comparison and model linking exercises. However, IAMs and ESMs have rarely been compared or linked with one another. Methods: This study conducts an explorative comparison and identifies possible flows of information between 11 of the integrated assessment and energy system models in the European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum. The study identifies and compares regional aggregations and commonly reported variables We define harmonised regions and a subset of shared result variables that enable the comparison of results across the models. Results: The results highlight similarities and differences on final electricity demand, electricity supply and hydrogen across three levels of aggregation. However, the differences between the regional aggregation of the models limit detailed analysis. Conclusions: This first-of-its-kind comparison and analysis of modelling results across model type boundaries provides modellers and policymakers with a better understanding of how to interpret both IAM and ESM results. It also highlights the need for community standards for region definitions and information about reported variables to facilitate future comparisons of this kind.

Published
2023

4. The mutual benefits of comparing energy system models and integrated assessment models

Author

Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Henke, Hauke, Dekker, Mark, Lombardi, Francesco, Pietzcker, Robert, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Zakeri, Behnam, Rodrigues, Renato, Sitarz, Joanna, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Tatarewicz, Igor, Fotiou, Theofano, Lewarski, Michał, Huppmann, Daniel, Kavvadias, Kostas, Zwaan, Bob van der, Usher, Will, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Henke, Hauke, Dekker, Mark, Lombardi, Francesco, Pietzcker, Robert, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Zakeri, Behnam, Rodrigues, Renato, Sitarz, Joanna, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Tatarewicz, Igor, Fotiou, Theofano, Lewarski, Michał, Huppmann, Daniel, Kavvadias, Kostas, Zwaan, Bob van der, and Usher, Will

Published
2023

5. Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios

Author

Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Dekker, Mark M., Daioglou, Vassilis, Pietzcker, Robert, Rodrigues, Renato, Boer, Harmen-Sytze de, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Fotiou, Theofano, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Gusheva, Ema, Harmsen, Mathijs, Huppmann, Daniel, Kannavou, Maria, Krey, Volker, Lombardi, Francesco, Luderer, Gunnar, Pfenninger, Stefan, Tsiropoulos, Ioannis, Zakeri, Behnam, Zwaan, Bob van der, Usher, Will, Vuuren, Detlef van, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Dekker, Mark M., Daioglou, Vassilis, Pietzcker, Robert, Rodrigues, Renato, Boer, Harmen-Sytze de, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Fotiou, Theofano, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Gusheva, Ema, Harmsen, Mathijs, Huppmann, Daniel, Kannavou, Maria, Krey, Volker, Lombardi, Francesco, Luderer, Gunnar, Pfenninger, Stefan, Tsiropoulos, Ioannis, Zakeri, Behnam, Zwaan, Bob van der, Usher, Will, and Vuuren, Detlef van

Published
2023

6. Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios

Author

Dekker, Mark, primary, Daioglou, Vassilis, additional, Pietzcker, Robert, additional, Rodrigues, Renato, additional, de Boer, Harmen Sytze, additional, Longa, Francesco Dalla, additional, Drouet, Laurent, additional, Emmerling, Johannes, additional, Fattahi, Amir, additional, Fotiou, Theofano, additional, Fragkos, Panagiotis, additional, Fricko, Oliver, additional, Gusheva, Ema, additional, Harmsen, Mathijs, additional, Huppmann, Daniel, additional, Kannavou, Maria, additional, Krey, Volker, additional, Lombardi, Francesco, additional, Luderer, Gunnar, additional, Pfenninger, Stefan, additional, Tsiropoulos, Ioannis, additional, Zakeri, Behnam, additional, Zwaan, Bob van der, additional, Usher, Will, additional, and Vuuren, Detlef van, additional

Published
2023
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