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Data de publicació electrònica: 02-05-2023 Objectives: To identify prognostic models which estimate the risk of critical COVID-19 in hospitalized patients and to assess their validation properties. Study design and setting: We conducted a systematic review in Medline (up to January 2021) of studies developing or updating a model that estimated the risk of critical COVID-19, defined as death, admission to intensive care unit, and/or use of mechanical ventilation during admission. Models were validated in two datasets with different backgrounds (HM [private Spanish hospital network], n = 1,753, and ICS [public Catalan health system], n = 1,104), by assessing discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration (plots). Results: We validated 18 prognostic models. Discrimination was good in nine of them (AUCs ≥ 80%) and higher in those predicting mortality (AUCs 65%-87%) than those predicting intensive care unit admission or a composite outcome (AUCs 53%-78%). Calibration was poor in all models providing outcome's probabilities and good in four models providing a point-based score. These four models used mortality as outcome and included age, oxygen saturation, and C-reactive protein among their predictors. Conclusion: The validity of models predicting critical COVID-19 by using only routinely collected predictors is variable. Four models showed good discrimination and calibration when externally validated and are recommended for their use.

The European EPI-CT study aims to quantify cancer risks from CT examinations of children and young adults. Here, we assess the risk of brain cancer.We pooled data from nine European countries for this cohort study. Eligible participants had at least one CT examination before age 22 years documented between 1977 and 2014, had no previous diagnosis of cancer or benign brain tumour, and were alive and cancer-free at least 5 years after the first CT. Participants were identified through the Radiology Information System in 276 hospitals. Participants were linked with national or regional registries of cancer and vital status, and eligible cases were patients with brain cancers according to WHO International Classification of Diseases for Oncology. Gliomas were analysed separately to all brain cancers. Organ doses were reconstructed using historical machine settings and a large sample of CT images. Excess relative risks (ERRs) of brain cancer per 100 mGy of cumulative brain dose were calculated with linear dose-response modelling. The outcome was the first reported diagnosis of brain cancer after an exclusion period of 5 years after the first electronically recorded CT examination.We identified 948 174 individuals, of whom 658 752 (69%) were eligible for our study. 368 721 (56%) of 658 752 participants were male and 290 031 (44%) were female. During a median follow-up of 5·6 years (IQR 2·4-10·1), 165 brain cancers occurred, including 121 (73%) gliomas. Mean cumulative brain dose, lagged by 5 years, was 47·4 mGy (SD 60·9) among all individuals and 76·0 mGy (100·1) among people with brain cancer. A significant linear dose-response relationship was observed for all brain cancers (ERR per 100 mGy 1·27 [95% CI 0·51-2·69]) and for gliomas separately (ERR per 100 mGy 1·11 [0·36-2·59]). Results were robust when the start of follow-up was delayed beyond 5 years and when participants with possibly previously unreported cancers were excluded.The observed significant dose-response relationship between CT-related radiation exposure and brain cancer in this large, multicentre study with individual dose evaluation emphasises careful justification of paediatric CTs and use of doses as low as reasonably possible.EU FP7; Belgian Cancer Registry; La Ligue contre le Cancer, L'Institut National du Cancer, France; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research; Worldwide Cancer Research; Dutch Cancer Society; Research Council of Norway; Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain; US National Cancer Institute; UK National Institute for Health Research; Public Health England.

The potential effect of gestational exposure to phthalates on the lung function levels during childhood is unclear. Therefore, we examined this association at different ages (from 4 to 11 years) and over the whole childhood. Specifically, we measured 9 phthalate metabolites (MEP, MiBP, MnBP, MCMHP, MBzP, MEHHP, MEOHP, MECPP, MEHP) in the urine of 641 gestating women from the INMA study (Spain) and the forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and FEV1/FVC in their offspring at ages 4, 7, 9 and 11. We used linear regression and mixed linear regression with a random intercept for subject to assess the association between phthalates and lung function at each study visit and for the overall childhood, respectively. We also assessed the phthalate metabolites mixture effect on lung function using a Weighted Quantile Sum (WQS) regression. We observed that the phthalate metabolites gestational levels were consistently associated with lower FVC and FEV1 at all ages, both when assessed individually and jointly as a mixture, although most associations were not statistically significant. Of note, a 10% increase in MiBP was related to lower FVC (-0.02 (-0.04, 0)) and FEV1 z-scores (-0.02 (-0.04,-0.01) at age 4. Similar significant reductions in FVC were observed at ages 4 and 7 associated with an increase in MEP and MnBP, respectively, and for FEV1 at age 4 associated with an increase in MBzP. WQS regression consistently identified MBzP as an important contributor to the phthalate mixture effect. We can conclude that the gestational exposure to phthalates was associated with children's lower FVC and FEV1, especially in early childhood, and in a statistically significant manner for MEP, MiBP, MBzP and MnBP. Given the ubiquity of phthalate exposure and its established endocrine disrupting effects in children, our findings support current regulations that limit phthalate exposure. The INMA study was funded by grants from the European Union (FP7-ENV-2011 cod 282957 and HEALTH.2010.2.4.5-1) , and from Spain: Instituto de Salud Carlos III and Ministry of Health (Red INMA G03/176; CB06/02/0041; PI041436, PI081151, PI06/0867, PS09/00090, PI13/02187; FIS-FEDER: PI03/1615, PI04/1509, PI04/1112, PI04/1931, PI05/1079, PI05/1052, PI06/1213, PI07/0314, PI09/02647, PI11/01007, PI11/02591, PI11/02038, PI12/01890, PI13/1944, PI13/2032, PI14/00891, PI14/1687, PI17/01194, and PI17/00663; MV16/00015; predoctoral grant PFIS - FI14/00099, pre-doctoral grant PFIS FIS-FSE: 17/00260, FIS19/1338, MV16/00015, Miguel Servet-FEDER: CP11/0178, and Miguel Servet-FSE: MS13/00054, MSII16/00051, and MS16/00128) , CIBERESP; Department of Health of the Basque Government (2005111093 and 2009111069) ; the Provincial Government of Gipuzkoa (DFG06/004 and DFG08/001) ; and the Generalitat de Catalunya-CIRIT (1999SGR 00241) . ISGlobal is a member of the CERCA Programme, Generalitat de Catalunya. We acknowledge support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the "Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019-2023" Program (CEX 2018-000806-S) , and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program.

Background The study of impact of lockdowns on individual health-related behaviors has produced divergent results. Purpose To identify patterns of change in multiple health-related behaviors analyzed as a whole, and their individual determinants. Methods Between March and August 2020, we collected data on smoking, alcohol, physical activity, weight, and sleep in a population-based cohort from Catalonia who had available pre-pandemic data. We performed multiple correspondence and cluster analyses to identify patterns of change in health-related behaviors and built multivariable multinomial logistic regressions to identify determinants of behavioral change. Results In 10,032 participants (59% female, mean (SD) age 55 (8) years), 8,606 individuals (86%) modified their behavior during the lockdown. We identified five patterns of behavioral change that were heterogeneous and directed both towards worsening and improvement in diverse combinations. Patterns ranged from “global worsening” (2,063 participants, 21%) characterized by increases in smoking, alcohol consumption, and weight, and decreases in physical activity levels and sleep time, to “improvement” (2,548 participants, 25%) characterized by increases in physical activity levels, decreases in weight and alcohol consumption, and both increases and decreases in sleep time. Being female, of older age, teleworking, having a higher education level, assuming caregiving responsibilities, and being more exposed to pandemic news were associated with changing behavior (all p < .05), but did not discriminate between favorable or unfavorable changes. Conclusions Most of the population experienced changes in health-related behavior during lockdowns. Determinants of behavior modification were not explicitly associated with the direction of changes but allowed the identification of older, teleworking, and highly educated women who assumed caregiving responsibilities at home as susceptible population groups more vulnerable to lockdowns.

Background: Physical activity and exercise capacity are key prognostic factors in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) but their environmental determinants are unknown. Objectives: To test the association between urban environment and objective physical activity, physical activity experience and exercise capacity in COPD. Methods: We studied 404 patients with mild-to-very severe COPD from a multi-city study in Catalonia, Spain. We measured objective physical activity (step count and sedentary time) by the Dynaport MoveMonitor, physical activity experience (difficulty with physical activity) by the Clinical visit-PROactive (C-PPAC) instrument, and exercise capacity by the 6-min walk distance (6MWD). We estimated individually (geocoded to the residential address) population density, pedestrian street length, slope of terrain, and long-term (i.e., annual) exposure to road traffic noise, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM2.5). We built single- and multi-exposure mixed-effects linear regressions with a random intercept for city, adjusting for confounders. Results: Patients were 85% male, had mean (SD) age 69 (9) years and walked 7524 (4045) steps/day. In multi-exposure models, higher population density was associated with fewer steps, more sedentary time and worse exercise capacity (−507 [95% CI: 1135, 121] steps, +0.2 [0.0, 0.4] h/day and −13 [-25, 0] m per IQR). Pedestrian street length related with more steps and less sedentary time (156 [9, 304] steps and −0.1 [-0.1, 0.0] h/day per IQR). Steeper slope was associated with better exercise capacity (15 [3, 27] m per IQR). Higher NO2 levels related with more sedentary time and more difficulty in physical activity. PM2.5 and noise were not associated with physical activity or exercise capacity. Discussion: Population density, pedestrian street length, slope and NO2 exposure relate to physical activity and capacity of COPD patients living in highly populated areas. These findings support the consideration of neighbourhood environmental factors during COPD management and the attention to patients with chronic diseases when developing urban and transport planning policies. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion