10 results on '"Maussion, F."'
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2. Your modelled glacier in one minute
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Jouvet, G., Cook, S., and Maussion, F.
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Bring us the RGI ID of your favorite mountain glacier. Anywhere. In one minute we will simulate the evolution of your glacier with the Instructed Glacier Model (IGM, https://github.com/jouvetg/igm). IGM is a user-friendly python code that can model 3D glacier evolution with initial data assimilation based on (deep-learned) high-order ice mechanics. The use of deep-learning makes the overall model computationally highly efficient, especially on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). The workflow is the following: first we use the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM, https://oggm.org/) to download and prepare all observation data (surface topography, ice mask, surface ice speeds, …) in a consistent way. Second, we perform data assimilation with IGM to seek for the ice thickness and ice-flow parameters that best match observations. Last, we define an ELA-based climate forcing and simulate the evolution of the glacier over the coming centuries with IGM. One more minute? In that case, we will activate the particle-tracking scheme, and you can watch the motion of the particles advected within the 3D ice flow of your glacier to visualise the velocity field., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)
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- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Towards a flexible, global data assimilation framework for glacier modelling
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Schmitt, P., Maussion, F., Goldberg, D., and Gregor, P.
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Recent advances in global geodetic mass balance and velocity assessments open new possibilities for global glacier model calibration and initialization. As the amount of data available for calibration increases in volume and complexity, how to best combine all these heterogeneous observations to initialize a dynamically consistent glacier evolution model?In this contribution, we present the Open Global Glacier Data Assimilation Framework (AGILE), which iteratively adapts control variables to minimize a cost function penalizing mismatch to observations (i.e. an 'inversion' of the observations). AGILE uses automatic differentiation (AD) and the machine learning framework PyTorch to obtain the control variable sensitivities for efficient minimization. The flexible nature of AD allows the combination of temporally and spatially heterogeneous observational sources with a variety of control variables (e.g. glacier bed heights, mass-balance parameters, initial ice thickness, ...). Moreover, it makes it possible to switch parts of the modelling chain with differentiable counterparts.We will demonstrate the capabilities of AGILE with idealized experiments using a re-implementation of an existing numerical model of glacier evolution (the Open Global Glacier Model, OGGM). We define bed height as well as an initial ice thickness distribution in the past as control variables, andconstrain our inversion with synthetic observations orientated towards globally available data sets. Our approach removes the need for equilibrium assumptions or an 'apparent mass balance' specification, both required in other model-based bed-height estimates. Finally, we will discuss the added value of AGILE and upcoming challenges for a global operational application., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)
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- 2023
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4. The Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) version 7
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Maussion, F., Hock, R., Paul, F., Rastner, P., Raup, B., and Zemp, M.
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The Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) is a globally complete collection of digital glacier outlines that plays a crucial role in global and regional glaciological research. We introduce the RGI version 7.0, which is our best estimate of global glacier outlines (excluding the two ice sheets) around the year 2000. Unlike previous versions which were compiled manually, RGI7 is generated from the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) glacier database, ensuring full traceability of single outlines to their original authors. The dataset is generated with Python scripts selecting outlines according to community decisions during an open review process. About 73% of the outlines (42% of the total area) in RGI7 are obtained from new inventories. This led to considerable quality improvements especially in High Mountain Asia, parts of Alaska, northern Canada, northern Greenland, Caucasus and Middle East, the Tropics, South America, New Zealand, and the Antarctic Periphery. Strikingly, the number of outlines increased by 27%, from 215,547 to 274,589. Smaller glaciers are now better inventoried and snow fields are less likely to be mapped as glaciers. Since these two improvements compensated each other, the total area in RGI7 (706,735 km2) is only 0.1% more than in RGI6. Regionally, area changes can be considerably larger (e.g. -18% in Low Latitudes, +9% in South East Asia). The new RGI generation process is open-source, fully reproducible and easily adaptable, making future updates straightforward to generate., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)
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- 2023
- Full Text
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5. Policy-relevant projections of global glacier change in the 21st Century
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Rounce, D., Hock, R., and Maussion, F.
- Abstract
Projections of glacier mass change impact sea level rise, water resources, natural hazards, tourism, and cultures. Here we present projections of global glacier changes, excluding the ice sheets, for ensembles of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways that are aggregated into policy-relevant temperature change scenarios. These temperature change scenarios highlight the impact that reducing temperature increase has on reducing glacier mass loss, glacier contributions to sea-level rise, and preventing widespread deglaciation in many regions. Projections are performed using a hybrid of the Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM) and Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), which are two open-source large-scale glacier evolution models. Major model improvements will be discussed including advances to PyGEM’s Bayesian calibration scheme, modeling of physical processes (e.g., glacierdynamics, frontal ablation, and debris cover), and the integration of new glacier change datasets. We will conclude by discussing PyGEM’s future direction, the incorporation of upcoming glacier change datasets, and continued improvements to support its use by the greater community thereby reducing the barrier to conduct research on global glacier evolution modeling., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)
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- 2023
- Full Text
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6. Improving understanding of regional drivers of glacier surface energy balance
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Richter, N., Nicholson, L., Collier, E., Maussion, F., and Ban, N.
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The region of High Mountain Asia hosts the largest assemblage of glaciers outside the poles and is already subject to regional water allocation conflicts and geomorphic hazards due to increasing glacier mass loss and global warming. Despite the need for improved glacier health monitoring, in situ measurements of glaciers are sparse and focused on a few selected glaciers.This imposes limitations for the applicability of surface energy balance (SEB) models as their usage is limited to glaciers with sufficient observations to address the dependency on reliant forcing data and the need for calibrated model parameters, often extracted using previous empirical knowledge or tuned with observations. Therefore, most regional glacier mass change studies are obtained via remote-sensing based geodetic estimates or variations of the temperature-index model that do not allow for the quantification and attribution of the driving forces of glacier melt.In this study, we aim to evaluate the possibility of extending SEB simulations from local to regional scale by introducing a semi-automated model parameter calibration of the open-source COSIPY model forced with high resolution climate simulations for the period of 2010 to 2020.We do so by employing a cost-function informed Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm which evaluates the mismatch between existing snowline and geodetic mass balance observations.The calibration results will be used to investigate the atmospheric drivers of few selected glaciers and compared to existing studies and measurements to evaluate both the feasibility of the applied framework and the uncertainty due to parameter choices. , The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)
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- 2023
- Full Text
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7. World-wide glacier meltdown: Implications for global sea level and streamflow
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Hock, R., Rounce, D., Marzeion, B., and Maussion, F.
- Abstract
Concurrent with atmospheric warming, glaciers around the world are rapidly retreating affecting global sea level and streamflow. Projections show considerable mass losses over the 21st century, however, mass losses vary strongly between regions and emission scenarios. In some regions with relatively little ice cover projections driven by high emission scenarios show near-complete deglaciation by the end of this century, while in polar regions relative mass losses are typically in the order of a few tenths of percent relative to the present. The mass losses modify local runoff regimes and lead to increases in glacier runoff in some regions but to decreases in others. Projected global glacier mass losses by the end of the 21st century correlate linearly with global mean temperature increase indicating that reducing global warming will limit future mass losses and their impacts., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)
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- 2023
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8. Process-based estimate of global-mean sea-level changes in the Common Era
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Gangadharan, N., Goosse, H., Parkes, D., Goelzer, H., Maussion, F., Marzeion, B., Gangadharan, N., Goosse, H., Parkes, D., Goelzer, H., Maussion, F., and Marzeion, B.
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Although the global-mean sea level (GMSL) rose over the twentieth century with a positive contribution from thermosteric and barystatic (ice sheets and glaciers) sources, the driving processes of GMSL changes during the pre-industrial Common Era (PCE; 1-1850 CE) are largely unknown. Here, the contributions of glacier and ice sheet mass variations and ocean thermal expansion to GMSL in the Common Era (1-2000 CE) are estimated based on simulations with different physical models. Although the twentieth century global-mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) is mainly associated with temperature variations in the upper 700 m (86 % in reconstruction and 74 ± 8 % in model), GMTSL in the PCE is equally controlled by temperature changes below 700 m. The GMTSL does not vary more than ± 2 cm during the PCE. GMSL contributions from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets tend to cancel each other out during the PCE owing to the differing response of the two ice sheets to atmospheric conditions. The uncertainties of sea-level contribution from land-ice mass variations are large, especially over the first millennium. Despite underestimating the twentieth century model GMSL, there is a general agreement between the model and proxy-based GMSL reconstructions in the CE. Although the uncertainties remain large over the first millennium, model simulations point to glaciers as the dominant source of GMSL changes during the PCE.
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- 2022
9. Overconfidence in climate overshoot.
- Author
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Schleussner CF, Ganti G, Lejeune Q, Zhu B, Pfleiderer P, Prütz R, Ciais P, Frölicher TL, Fuss S, Gasser T, Gidden MJ, Kropf CM, Lacroix F, Lamboll R, Martyr R, Maussion F, McCaughey JW, Meinshausen M, Mengel M, Nicholls Z, Quilcaille Y, Sanderson B, Seneviratne SI, Sillmann J, Smith CJ, Steinert NJ, Theokritoff E, Warren R, Price J, and Rogelj J
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- Climate Models, Temperature, Time Factors, Risk Evaluation and Mitigation, Carbon Dioxide analysis, Environmental Policy economics, Environmental Policy legislation & jurisprudence, Environmental Policy trends, Global Warming legislation & jurisprudence, Global Warming prevention & control, Global Warming statistics & numerical data, International Cooperation legislation & jurisprudence, Goals, Uncertainty, Carbon Sequestration
- Abstract
Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement
1 . This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2-5 . Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7 . To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9 . Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks., (© 2024. The Author(s).)- Published
- 2024
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10. Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters.
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Rounce DR, Hock R, Maussion F, Hugonnet R, Kochtitzky W, Huss M, Berthier E, Brinkerhoff D, Compagno L, Copland L, Farinotti D, Menounos B, and McNabb RW
- Abstract
Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 ± 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 ± 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 ± 26 to 154 ± 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 ± 9 to 83 ± 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7°C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 ± 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100.
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- 2023
- Full Text
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