Search

While the sentinel nature of freshwater systems is now well recognized, widespread integration of freshwater processes and patterns into our understanding of broader climate-driven Arctic terrestrial ecosystem change has been slow. We review the current understanding across Arctic freshwater systems of key sentinel responses to climate, which are attributes of these systems with demonstrated and sensitive responses to climate forcing. These include ice regimes, temperature and thermal structure, river baseflow, lake area and water level, permafrost-derived dissolved ions and nutrients, carbon mobilization (dissolved organic carbon, greenhouse gases, and radiocarbon), dissolved oxygen concentrations, lake trophic state, various aquatic organisms and their traits, and invasive species. For each sentinel, our objectives are to clarify linkages to climate, describe key insights already gained, and provide suggestions for future research based on current knowledge gaps. We suggest that tracking key responses in Arctic freshwater systems will expand understanding of the breadth and depth of climate-driven Arctic ecosystem changes, provide early indicators of looming, broader changes across the landscape, and improve protection of freshwater biodiversity and resources.

Endorheic lakes, lacking river outflows, are highly sensitive to environmental changes and human interventions. Central Asia (CA) has over 6000 lakes that have experienced substantial water level variability in the past century, yet causes of recent changes in many lakes remain unexplored. Modelling hydrological processes for CA lakes poses challenges in separating climatic change impacts from human management impacts due to limited data and long-term variability in hydrological regimes. This study developed a spatially lumped empirical model to investigate the effects of climate change and human water abstraction, using Shortandy Lake in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP) as a case study. Modelling results show a significant water volume decline from 231.7x106m3 in 1986 to 172.5x106m3 in 2016, primarily driven by anthropogenic water abstraction, accounting for 92% of the total volume deficit. The highest rates of water abstraction (greater than 25% of annual outflow) occurred from 1989 to 1993, coinciding with the driest period. Since 2013, the water volume has increased due to increased precipitation and, more importantly, reduced water abstraction. Despite limited observational data with which to calibrate the model, it performs well. Our analysis underscores the challenges in modelling lakes in data-sparse regions such as CA, and highlights the importance and benefits of developing lake water balance models for the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the transient dynamics of interlinked social-ecological systems (SES) is imperative for assessing sustainability in the Anthropocene. However, how to identify critical transitions in real-world SES remains a formidable challenge. In this study, we present an evolutionary framework to characterize these dynamics over an extended historical timeline. Our approach leverages multidecadal rates of change in socioeconomic data, paleoenvironmental, and cutting-edge sedimentary ancient DNA records from China's Yangtze River Delta, one of the most densely populated and intensively modified landscapes on Earth. Our analysis reveals two significant social-ecological transitions characterized by contrasting interactions and feedback spanning several centuries. Initially, the regional SES exhibited a loosely connected and ecologically sustainable regime. Nevertheless, starting in the 1950s, an increasingly interconnected regime emerged, ultimately resulting in the crossing of tipping points and an unprecedented acceleration in soil erosion, water eutrophication, and ecosystem degradation. Remarkably, the second transition occurring around the 2000s, featured a notable decoupling of socioeconomic development from ecoenvironmental degradation. This decoupling phenomenon signifies a more desirable reconfiguration of the regional SES, furnishing essential insights not only for the Yangtze River Basin but also for regions worldwide grappling with similar sustainability challenges. Our extensive multidecadal empirical investigation underscores the value of coevolutionary approaches in understanding and addressing social-ecological system dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Macrophyte invasive alien species (IAS) fitness is often hypothesised to be associated with beneficial environmental conditions (environmental matching) or species‐poor communities. However, positive correlations between macrophyte IAS abundance and native plant richness can also arise, due to habitat heterogeneity (defined here as variation in abiotic and native biotic conditions over space and time). We analysed survey and palaeoecological data for macrophytes in satellite lakes along the Upper Lough Erne (ULE) system (Northern Ireland, UK), covering a gradient of eutrophication and connectivity to partition how environmental conditions, macrophyte diversity and habitat heterogeneity explained the abundance of Elodea canadensis, a widely distributed non‐native macrophyte in Europe. E. canadensis abundance positively correlated with macrophyte richness at both the within‐ and between‐lake scales indicating coexistence of native and invasive species over time. E. canadensis was also more prolific in highly connected and macrophyte‐rich lakes, but sparser in the more eutrophic‐isolated ones. Partial boosted regression trees revealed that in eutrophic‐isolated lakes, E. canadensis abundances correlated with water clarity (negatively), plant diversity (positively), and plant cover (negatively) whereas in diverse‐connected lakes, beta diversity (both positively and negatively) related to most greatly E. canadensis abundance. Dense macrophyte cover and unfavourable environmental conditions thus appear to confer invasibility resistance and sufficient habitat heterogeneity to mask any single effect of native biodiversity or environmental matching in controlling E. canadensis abundance. Therefore, in shallow lake landscapes, habitat heterogeneity variously enables the coexistence of native macrophytes and E. canadensis, reducing the often‐described homogenisation effects of invasive macrophytes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands, an important carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems, are often characterised by a hummock–hollow microtopography, which has important implications for hydrologic conditions, biotic community structure and carbon cycling. However, dynamics of microtopography formation are poorly understood. Moss‐inhabiting diatoms are sensitive to water table change and may be used to infer microtopography formation. Sixty‐three surface moss samples were collected from four Sphagnum peatlands in the Changbai Mountains (north‐eastern China), covering a water table gradient of 0–55 cm. Ordination analyses revealed that depth to the water table (DWT) was the determinant of diatom distribution, and its sole effect explained 15% of total variance in diatom composition. Accordingly, a diatom‐based water table transfer function was developed using a weighted averaging model with inverse deshrinking (R2 = 0.82, RMSEP = 5.63 cm with leave‐one‐out cross validation), and applied to diatom records of a Sphagnum hummock profile. Quantitative reconstruction of DWT showed that the height of the Sphagnum hummock increased obviously in the early stage and then remained relatively stable when the reconstructed height was more than 35 cm. The results suggested that annual addition of Sphagnum litter exceeded its decomposition during the early stage of hummock formation, and Sphagnum production and decomposition reached equilibrium when the hummock had grown to a certain height. This is the first study to explore dynamics of hummock height using moss‐inhabiting diatoms, and hence provides a novel tool for quantitative reconstruction of microtopography formation in Sphagnum peatlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic and climatic stressors on freshwater ecosystems are of global concern. However, the interactions and effects of multiple stressors (e.g., nutrient enrichment, climate warming, altered wind and precipitation) acting over different spatial and temporal scales are often complex and remain controversial. Here, we reconstructed one‐century dynamics of eutrophication and primary producer communities in algal‐dominated and macrophyte‐dominated zones of a large shallow lake (Taihu, China), by integrating sedimentary photosynthetic pigments and geochemical records with water monitoring and historical archives. We aimed to explore the long‐term underlying mechanisms of the responses of water quality and lake biota to multiple environmental perturbations. We found that water quality degradation and algal community modification showed similar trends but distinct timings and trajectories in contrasting ecological zones. Onset and intensity of eutrophication in north Meiliang Bay (since the 1950s) exceeded far beyond that of macrophyte‐dominated Eastern Taihu (~1990s). Anthropogenic nutrients overtook past climatic control on production and composition of phototrophic assemblages. More importantly, lake phytoplankton responded markedly to climate warming, decreasing wind speed, and extreme weathers after cultural eutrophication. Synergistic interactions of nutrients and climate on lake ecosystems became increasingly significant in promoting harmful algal blooms (HABs) dominated by Microcystis, close to the hyper‐eutrophic north lake zones. The asynchronous limnological and ecological responses also indicated the modulating roles of lake ecological regime and catchment hydrogeomorphic characteristic. Collectively, our findings suggest that mitigation of eutrophication and HABs calls for a triple management strategy integrating anthropogenic nutrients, climate change, and lake‐catchment setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the transient dynamics of interlinked social-ecological systems (SES) is imperative for assessing sustainability in the Anthropocene. However, how to identify critical transitions in real-world SES remains a formidable challenge. In this study, we present an evolutionary framework to characterize these dynamics over an extended historical timeline. Our approach leverages multidecadal rates of change in socioeconomic data, paleoenvironmental, and cutting-edge sedimentary ancient DNA records from China's Yangtze River Delta, one of the most densely populated and intensively modified landscapes on Earth. Our analysis reveals two significant social-ecological transitions characterized by contrasting interactions and feedback spanning several centuries. Initially, the regional SES exhibited a loosely connected and ecologically sustainable regime. Nevertheless, starting in the 1950s, an increasingly interconnected regime emerged, ultimately resulting in the crossing of tipping points and an unprecedented acceleration in soil erosion, water eutrophication, and ecosystem degradation. Remarkably, the second transition occurring around the 2000s, featured a notable decoupling of socioeconomic development from ecoenvironmental degradation. This decoupling phenomenon signifies a more desirable reconfiguration of the regional SES, furnishing essential insights not only for the Yangtze River Basin but also for regions worldwide grappling with similar sustainability challenges. Our extensive multidecadal empirical investigation underscores the value of coevolutionary approaches in understanding and addressing social-ecological system dynamics., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:L.G. is one of the co-inventors on a U.S. patent application related to this work (application no. 20110143354). The patent restricts commercial applications only and has no impact on the use in academic research. All the other authors declare no competing interest.