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Amidst the bleak picture of increasing joblessness and indebtedness presented by employment surveys and debt surveys, a minimum standard of living for India’s poor seems to be under threat. The sudden exogenous shock of COVID-19 to the incomes of the poor has made the case of a minimum income guarantee (MIG) for the poor more urgent. Rather than adopting a quasi-UBI and doing away with many existing developmental programmes, this paper makes a case for, and presents the design of a better strategy of cash transfers as a supplement to income from livelihoods, keeping fiscal considerations in mind. Had it already been in place by early 2020, it would only have required a ramping up of transfers to protect the incomes of the poor. This paper focuses on feasible pathways for ensuring equity, recognising the importance of addressing the issues of social justice, and reduction of vulnerabilities. Thus, the stress is on technical and economic aspects of such a programme. Essentially, the paper focuses on identifying vulnerable populations to be targeted for efficient and just transfer.

As much as 91% of India’s workforce of 475 million is informal, lacking social insurance. The latest effort on social security is India’s Social Security Code 2020, which merges eight existing laws. The paper finds the Code wanting by comparing it with the principles that should guide social insurance for informal workers in India. Drawing on this analysis it then sets out proposals for what a social insurance system for India could look like. The roadmap to such reform is long drawn out and challenging given the size of the country, the immensity of its population, its diversity and the complexity of informality in the workforce. Nevertheless, the goal remains that over the next ten years, social insurance should cover the entire workforce, in accordance with ILO Conventions. The paper closes by estimating the fiscal cost of what is proposed, both to federal and state governments.