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Abstract Local adaptation is key for ecotypic differentiation and species evolution. Understanding underlying genomic patterns can allow the prediction of future maladaptation and ecosystem stability. Here, we report the whole-genome resequencing of 874 individuals from 100 range-wide populations of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), an important forest tree species in Europe. We show that genetic variation closely mirrors geography with a clear pattern of isolation-by-distance. Genome-wide analyses for genotype-environment associations (GEAs) identify relatively few potentially adaptive variants after correcting for an overwhelming signal of statistically significant but non-causal GEAs. We characterize the single high confidence genomic region and pinpoint a candidate gene possibly involved in winter temperature adaptation via modulation of spring phenology. Surprisingly, allelic variation at this locus does not result in any apparent fitness differences in a common garden. More generally, reciprocal transplant experiments across large climate distances suggest extensive phenotypic plasticity. Nevertheless, we find indications of polygenic adaptation which may be essential in natural ecosystems. This polygenic signal exhibits broad- and fine-scale variation across the landscape, highlighting the relevance of spatial resolution. In summary, our results emphasize the importance, but also exemplify the complexity, of employing natural genetic variation for forest conservation under climate change.

Abstract We present a database of Norway spruce phenotypic traits measured over a period of 51 years in provenance trials planted across western Germany. These trials are part of the ‘Inventory Provenance Test 1964/68 with Norway spruce’ (IPTNS) that tested a total of 1,100 provenances collected across Europe, both from the species natural and artificial range. Phenotypic traits (first height, later diameter at breast height, survival) were recorded at 33 trial sites of 100 provenances, each a subsample from the entire collection area that represents an approximately comparable climate space. The dataset contains 424,781 records of the same 65,518 trees ranging from age 7 to 51. Overall, it captures the considerable genetic and phenotypic intraspecific variation present in Norway spruce and should be of interest to various fields including quantitative genetics, ecology, biogeography and the adaptive management of forests.

Abstract Key message Seven European beech provenances differing largely in growth performance were grown at two common garden sites in Germany and Slovakia. The intra-specific variability of most traits was explained more by phenotypic plasticity than inter-provenance variability, and efficiency-related traits showed a higher phenotypic plasticity than safety-related traits. Context To maintain climate-resilient future forests, replicated common-garden experiments are suited for developing assisted migration strategies for key tree species. Aims We analysed the magnitude of inter-provenance variability and phenotypic plasticity for 12 functional traits of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and analysed whether the climate at the place of origin left an imprint. Moreover, we asked whether growth is unrelated to xylem safety and to what extent the foliar, xylem and growth-related traits are coordinated. Methods Terminal branches were collected from 19-year-old and 22-year-old trees of seven European beech provenances planted at two common garden sites in Germany and Slovakia, respectively. Three hydraulic, three wood anatomical and four foliar traits were measured and related to two growth-related variables. Results At the two sites, the same pair of provenances showed the highest and lowest growth. Nevertheless, a high degree of phenotypic plasticity was observed, as all traits differed significantly between sites after accounting for provenance effects, with hydraulic safety-related traits showing the lowest and efficiency-related traits the highest plasticity. There was no evidence for inter-provenance variability in xylem embolism resistance (P 50) or the foliar carbon isotope signature (δ13C), a proxy for intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE), and both were unrelated to growth. P 50 was positively correlated with the lumen-to-sapwood area ratio and vessel density. Conclusions Because of the lacking trade-off between embolism resistance and growth, highly productive provenances can be selected without reducing the drought tolerance of the branch xylem. However, as xylem safety is only one element of a trees’ drought response, it may be beneficial to select provenances with other more conservative drought adaptations such as smaller vessel lumen areas for increasing xylem safety and small supported total leaf areas for reduction of total transpiration.

Information about the resistance and adaptive potential of tree species and provenances is needed to select suitable planting material in times of rapidly changing climate conditions. In this study, we evaluate growth responses to climatic fluctuations and extreme events for 12 provenances of northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) that were tested across three trial sites with distinct environmental conditions in Germany. Six provenances each were sourced from the natural distribution in North America and from introduced stands in Germany. We collected increment cores of 16 trees per provenance and site. Dendroecological methods were used to compare provenance performance and establish climate-growth relationships to identify the main growth limiting factors. To evaluate the provenance response to extreme drought and frost events, three site-specific drought years were selected according to the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and 2010 as a year with an extreme late frost event. Resistance indices for these years were calculated and assessed in relation to overall growth performance. We observed a high variation in growth and in the climate sensitivity between sites depending on the prevailing climatic conditions, as well as a high intra-specific variation. Overall, summer drought and low temperatures in the early growing season appear to constrain the growth of red oak. The resistance of provenances within sites and extreme years showed considerable rank changes and interaction effects. We did not find a trade-off between growth and resistance to late frost, namely, fast growing provenances had a high frost hardiness. Further, there was no evidence for a trade-off between growth and drought hardiness. Still, responses to drought or late frost differ between provenances, pointing to dissimilar adaptive strategies. Provenances from introduced (i.e. German) stands represent suitable seed sources, as they combine a higher growth and frost hardiness compared to their North American counterparts. Drought hardiness was slightly higher in the slow-growing provenances. The results provide a better understanding of the variable adaptive strategies between provenances and help to select suitable planting material for adaptive forest management.

The most common tool to predict future changes in species range are species distribution models. These models do, however, often underestimate potential future habitat, as they do not account for phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation, although being the most important processes in the response of tree populations to rapid climate change. Here, we quantify the difference in the predictions of future range for Norway spruce, by (i) deriving a classic, occurrence-based species distribution model (OccurrenceSDM), and (ii) analysing the variation in juvenile tree height and translating this to species occurrence (TraitSDM). Making use of 32 site locations of the most comprehensive European trial series that includes 1,100 provenances of Norway spruce originating from its natural and further beyond from its largely extended, artificial distribution, we fit a universal response function to quantify growth as a function of site and provenance climate. Both the OccurrenceSDM and TraitSDM show a substantial retreat towards the northern latitudes and higher elevations (−55 and −43%, respectively, by the 2080s). However, thanks to the species’ particularly high phenotypic plasticity in juvenile height growth, the decline is delayed. The TraitSDM identifies increasing summer heat paired with decreasing water availability as the main climatic variable that restricts growth, while a prolonged frost-free period enables a longer period of active growth and therefore increasing growth potential within the restricted, remaining area. Clear signals of local adaptation to climatic clines spanning the entire range are barely detectable, as they are disguised by a latitudinal cline. This cline strongly reflects population differentiation for the Baltic domain, but fails to capture the high phenotypic variation associated to the geographic heterogeneity in the Central European mountain ranges paired with the species history of postglacial migration. Still the model is used to provide recommendations of optimal provenance choice for future climate conditions. In essence, assisted migration may not decrease the predicted range decline of Norway spruce, but may help to capitalize on potential opportunities for increased growth associated with warmer climates.