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Understanding the factors affecting consumer replacement behavior is important in extending the product lifetime in a circular economy. Although such factors have been widely investigated, methodologies to quantitatively measure the potential of changes in these aspects are scarce. They help to consider effective strategies for product lifetime extension. This study focused on the expected product lifetime and constructed a framework to analyze this potential, using air conditioners in Japan as a case study. When the expected product lifetime increased by 1, 2, and 3 years, the mean actual product lifetime rose by 0.9, 1.8, and 2.72 years, respectively, whose values can be sufficiently recognized as potentials for product lifetime extension. The results indicate that products and services for product lifetime extension can actually be used by consumers. Therefore, business strategies for product lifetime extension can increase resource efficiency and potentially strengthen competitiveness in future resource constraint economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]