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Accurate information about growing crops allows for regulating the internal stocks of agricultural products and drawing strategies for negotiating agricultural commodities on financial markets. Machine learning methods are widely implemented for crop type recognition and classification based on satellite images. However, field classification is complicated by class imbalance and aggregation of pixel-wise into field-wise forecasting. We propose here a Bayesian methodology for the aggregation of classification results. We report the comparison of class balancing techniques. We also report the comparison of classical machine learning methods and the U-Net convolutional neural network for classifying crops using a single satellite image. The best result for single-satellite-image crop classification was achieved with an overall accuracy of 77.4% and a Macro F1-score of 0.66. Bayesian aggregation for field-wise classification improved the result obtained using majority voting aggregation by 1.5%. We demonstrate here that the Bayesian aggregation approach outperforms the majority voting and averaging strategy in overall accuracy for the single-image crop classification task. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aims to establish the possible habitat suitability of Heracleum sosnowskyi (HS), one of the most aggressive invasive plants, in current and future climate conditions across the territory of the European part of Russia. We utilised a species distribution modelling framework using publicly available data of plant occurrence collected in citizen science projects (CSP). Climatic variables and soil characteristics were considered to follow possible dependencies with environmental factors. We applied Random Forest to classify the study area. We addressed the problem of sampling bias in CSP data by optimising the sampling size and implementing a spatial cross-validation scheme. According to the Random Forest model built on the finally selected data shape, more than half of the studied territory in the current climate corresponds to a suitability prediction score higher than 0.25. The forecast of habitat suitability in future climate was highly similar for all climate models. Almost the whole studied territory showed the possibility for spread with an average suitability score of 0.4. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter and precipitation of wettest month demonstrated the highest influence on the HS distribution. Thus, currently, the whole study area, excluding the north, may be considered as s territory with a high risk of HS spreading, while in the future suitable locations for the HS habitat will include high latitudes. We showed that chosen geodata pre-processing, and cross-validation based on geospatial blocks reduced significantly the sampling bias. Obtained predictions could help to assess the risks accompanying the studied plant invasion capturing the patterns of the spread, and can be used for the conservation actions planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural environments are recognized as complex heterogeneous structures thus requiring numerous multi-scale observations to yield a comprehensive description. To monitor the current state and identify negative impacts of human activity, fast and precise instruments are in urgent need. This work provides an automated approach to the assessment of spatial variability of water quality using guideline values on the example of 1526 water samples comprising 21 parameters at 448 unique locations across the New Moscow region (Russia). We apply multi-task Gaussian process regression (GPR) to model the measured water properties across the territory, considering not only the spatial but inter-parameter correlations. GPR is enhanced with a Spectral Mixture Kernel to facilitate a hyper-parameter selection and optimization. We use a 5-fold cross-validation scheme along with R 2 -score to validate the results and select the best model for simultaneous prediction of water properties across the area. Finally, we develop a novel Probabilistic Substance Quality Index (PSQI) that combines probabilistic model predictions with the regulatory standards on the example of the epidemiological rules and hygienic regulations established in Russia. Moreover, we provide an interactive map of experimental results at 100 m2 resolution. The proposed approach contributes significantly to the development of flexible tools in environment quality monitoring, being scalable to different standard systems, number of observation points, and region of interest. It has a strong potential for adaption to environmental and policy changes and non-unified assessment conditions, and may be integrated into support-decision systems for the rapid estimation of water quality spatial distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]