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Abstract Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of African Leucinodes species (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), which are fruit and shoot borers, especially of eggplant type fruit. The assessment focused on (i) potential pathways for entry, (ii) distribution of infested imports within EU, (iii) climatic conditions favouring establishment, (iv) spread and (v) impact. Options for risk reduction are discussed, but their effectiveness was not quantified. Leucinodes spp. are widely distributed across sub‐Saharan Africa but are little studied and they could be much more widespread in Africa than reported. Much African literature erroneously reports them as Leucinodes orbonalis which is restricted to Asia. The import of eggplant type fruit from sub‐Saharan Africa consists of special fruit types and caters mostly to niche markets in the EU. The main pathway for entry is fruit of Solanum aethiopicum and exotic varieties of eggplant (S. melongena). CLIMEX modelling was used with two possible thresholds of ecoclimatic index (EI) to assess establishment potential. Climates favouring establishment occur mostly in southern Europe, where, based on human population, 14% of the imported produce is distributed across NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30; or where 23% of the produce is distributed where EI ≥ 15. Over the next 5 years, an annual median estimate of ~ 8600 fruits, originating from Africa, and infested with African Leucinodes spp. are expected to enter EU NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 15 (90% CR ~ 570–52,700); this drops to ~ 5200 (90% CR ~ 350–32,100) in NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30. Escape of adult moths occurs mostly from consumer waste; considering uncertainties in pathway transfer, such as adult emergence, mate finding and survival of progeny, the annual median probability of a mated female establishing a founder population in NUTS regions where EI ≥ 15 was estimated to be 0.0078 (90% CR 0.00023–0.12125). This equates to a median estimate of one founder population ~ every 128 years (90% CR approximately one every 8–4280 years). Using an EI ≥ 30, the median number of founder populations establishing in the EU annually is 0.0048 (90% CR 0.0001–0.0739), equating to a median estimate of one founder population approximately every 210 years (90% CR approximately one every 14–7020 years). Under climate change for the period 2040–2059, the percent of infested produce going to suitable areas would be increased to 33% for EI ≥ 15 and to 21% for EI ≥ 30. Accordingly, the waiting time until the next founder population would be reduced to median estimates of 89 years for EI ≥ 15 (90% CR ~ 6–2980 years) and 139 years for EI ≥ 30 (90% CR 9–4655 years). If a founder population were to establish, it is estimated to spread at a rate of 0.65–7.0 km per year after a lag phase of 5–92 years. Leucinodes spp. are estimated to reduce eggplant yield by a median value of 4.5% (90% CR 0.67%–13%) if growers take no specific action, or 0.54% (90% CR between 0.13% and 1.9%) if they do take targeted action, matching previous estimates made during a risk assessment of L. orbonalis from Asia.

Abstract Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment of Leucinodes orbonalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), the eggplant fruit and shoot borer, for the EU. The assessment focused on potential pathways for entry, climatic conditions favouring establishment, spread and impact. Options for risk reduction are discussed but effectiveness was not quantified. L. orbonalis is a key pest of eggplant (aubergine/brinjal) in the Indian subcontinent and occurs throughout most of southern Asia with records mostly from India and Bangladesh. The main pathway of entry is fruit of solanaceous plants, primarily exotic varieties of eggplant, Solanum melongena and turkey berry, S. torvum. The trade in both commodities from Asia is small but nevertheless dwarfs the trade in other Solanum fruits from Asia (S. aethiopicum, S. anguivi, S. virginianum, S. aculeatissimum, S. undatum). Other Solanum fruits were therefore not further assessed as potential pathways. The trade in eggplant from Asia consists of special fruit types and caters mostly to niche markets in the EU, while most eggplant consumed in Europe is produced in southern European and northern African countries, where L. orbonalis does not occur. Using expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) and pathway modelling, the Panel estimated that approximately 3–670 infested fruit (90% certainty range, CR) of S. melongena or fruit bunches of S. torvum enter into regions of the EU that are suitable for L. orbonalis establishment each year. Based on CLIMEX modelling, and using two possible thresholds of ecoclimatic index (EI) to indicate uncertainty in establishment potential, climates favouring establishment occur mostly in southern Europe, where, based on human population, approximately 14% of the imported produce is distributed across NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30; or 23% of the produce is distributed where EI ≥ 15. Escape of adult moths occurs mostly from consumer waste. By analysing results of different scenarios for the proportion of S. melongena and S. torvum in the trade, and considering uncertainties in the climatic suitability of southern Europe, adult moth emergence in areas suitable for establishment is expected to vary between 84 individuals per year and one individual per 40 years (based on 90% CR in different scenarios). In the baseline scenario, 25% of the solanaceous fruit from Asia is S. torvum, 75% is S. melongena and EI ≥ 30 is required for establishment. After accounting for the chances of mating, host finding and establishment, the probability of a mated female establishing a founder population in the EU is less than 1 in 100,000 to about 1 event per 622 years (90% CR in baseline scenario). The waiting time until the first establishment is then 622 to more than 100,000 years (CR). If such a founder population were established, the moth is estimated to spread at a rate of 0.65–7.0 km per year after a lag phase of 5–92 years. The impact of the insect on the production of eggplant is estimated to be 0.67%–13% (CR) if growers take no specific action against the insect and 0.13%–1.9% if they do take targeted actions. Tomato (S. lycopersicum) and potato (S. tuberosum) are hosts of L. orbonalis, but the insect does not develop to maturity in tomato fruit, and it does not feed on potato tubers under field conditions; hence, damage to potato can only occur due to feeding on shoots. Tomato and potato are not preferred hosts; nevertheless, impact can occur if populations of L. orbonalis are high and preferred hosts are not available. The Panel did not assess this damage due to insufficient information.

The Udea species (currently six) present in the Afrotropical realm are revised based on adults. Phlyctaenia epicoena Meyrick, 1937 syn. nov. is found to be identical with U. ferrugalis (Hübner, 1796). Udea delineatalis (Walker in Melliss 1875) and U. hageni Viette, 1952 are redescribed. In addition, five species of Udea are described as new to science: U. kirinyaga Mally sp. nov. from Mount Kenya in Kenya, U. nicholsae Mally sp. nov., U. meruensis Mally sp. nov. and U. momella Mally sp. nov., all three from Mount Meru in Tanzania, and U. namaquana Karisch & Mally sp. nov. from South Africa. A phylogenetic analysis based on morphological data and mitochondrial COI as well as the nuclear wingless gene, where available, places the new species in the U. ferrugalis species group, which also comprises U. ferrugalis as well as U. delineatalis from the oceanic island of St. Helena. Another island endemic, Udea hageni from Tristan da Cunha, is found to be a member of the U. numeralis group, as sister to U. numeralis. An additional synapomorphic character of the genitalia is recognised for the U. ferrugalis group. Udea infuscalis (Zeller, 1852) and U. melanostictalis (Hampson in Poulton 1916) are misplaced in Udea and transferred to Pyraustinae, as Lirabotys infuscalis comb. nov. and Achyra melanostictalis comb. nov., respectively. Adults, tympanic organs, and genitalia of both sexes, where available, are illustrated. A checklist summarises the now eight Afrotropical Udea species.

Abstract Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative pest risk assessment of Elasmopalpus lignosellus (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the lesser cornstalk borer, for the EU. The assessment considered entry, establishment, spread and impact. Two scenarios for establishment were considered: (i) under current climatic conditions and (ii) under a future climate based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios. Impact assessment focused on cereal and legume host species. E. lignosellus is not known to occur outside of the Americas although it has been intercepted in the EU on fresh asparagus spears for consumption. Based on the size of the trade and evidence of interceptions, the importation of asparagus from Peru was identified as the most important pathway for entry. Using stochastic pathway modelling with parameter values based on Eurostat data and expert knowledge elicitation (EKE), the Panel estimated the median number of infested asparagus spears entering the EU annually to be approximately 8,600 (90% certainty range (CR) approximately 1,300–58,500). Each infested spear is likely to contain only one larva. Conditions are most suitable for establishment in the southern EU, especially around the Mediterranean basin. Under current climatic conditions, around 16% of spears enter regions of the EU suitable for establishment; this rises to 24% in the climate change scenario considered (2040–2059). However, due to estimated small likelihoods of adults emerging and escaping from discarded waste, finding a mate and the subsequent progeny surviving to initiate a founder population, the median number of populations expected to establish was estimated to be 0.0001 per year (90% CR 0.000005–0.002). Were E. lignosellus to establish, the median rate of natural spread was estimated to be 7.4 km/year (90% CR 0.6–18.2 km/year), after an initial lag period of 18.5 years (90% CR 3.3–43.8 years) following the establishment of a founder population. Estimated median yield losses in crops of cereals and legumes were estimated to be 0.95% (CR 0.2–2.8%), assuming farmers would adapt control measures such as are in place for other seedling pests. The Panel did not consider a scenario with additional risk reduction options because no feasible options at field level could be identified while export inspections aiming for zero contamination of the commodity are already in place in the exporting country – Peru.

Non-native plants typically benefit from enemy release following their naturalization in non-native habitats. However, over time, herbivorous insects specializing on such plants may invade from the native range and thereby diminish the benefits of enemy release that these plants may experience. In this study, we compare rates of invasion spread across Europe of three North American insect folivores: the Lepidoptera leaf miners Macrosaccus robiniella and Parectopa robiniella, and the gall midge Obolodiplosis robiniae, that specialize on Robinia pseudoacacia. This tree species is one of the most widespread non-native trees in Europe. We find that spread rates vary among the three species and that some of this variation can be explained by differences in their life history traits. We also report that geographical variation in spread rates are influenced by distribution of Robinia pseudoacacia, human population and temperature, though Robinia pseudoacacia occurrence had the greatest influence. The importance of host tree occurrence on invasion speed can be explained by the general importance of hosts on the population growth and spread of invading species.