1. Model‐Data Comparison of Antarctic Winter Sea‐Ice Extent and Southern Ocean Sea‐Surface Temperatures During Marine Isotope Stage 5e.
- Author
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Chadwick, M., Sime, L. C., Allen, C. S., and Guarino, M.‐V.
- Subjects
OCEAN temperature ,OCEAN currents ,MARINE sediments ,ISOTOPES ,ICE sheets ,ATMOSPHERIC models - Abstract
Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (130–116 ka) represents a "laboratory" for evaluating climate model performance under warmer‐than‐present conditions. Climate model simulations for MIS 5e have previously failed to produce Southern Ocean (SO) sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea‐ice extent reconstructed from marine sediment core proxy records. Here we compare state of the art HadGEM3 and HadCM3 simulations of Peak MIS 5e SO summer SSTs and September sea‐ice concentrations with the latest marine sediment core proxy data. The model outputs and proxy records show the least consistency in the regions located near the present‐day SO gyre boundaries, implying the possibility that model simulations are currently unable to fully realize changes in gyre extent and position during MIS 5e. Including Heinrich 11 meltwater forcing in Peak MIS 5e climate simulations improves the likeness to proxy data but it is clear that longer (3–4 ka) run times are required to fully test the consistency between models and data. Plain Language Summary: Investigating past warm periods can provide us with an analog for how climate will respond to future warming. In this study we compare the latest model simulations of Southern Ocean (SO) sea‐surface temperatures and Antarctic winter sea‐ice extent from 130,000 years ago with data from marine sediment cores. The simulations and sediment core data show the least match in the areas near the boundaries of the present day SO gyres (large, circulating ocean currents), implying that possibly changes in the position and size of the gyres are not fully recreated in the computer simulations. The inclusion of ice sheet meltwater into the North Atlantic improves the comparison between the simulations and sediment core data but it is clear that longer run times are required to fully test their consistency. Key Points: Different areas of the Southern Ocean (SO) show different consistency between model simulations and proxy dataRegions along the edges of the modern day SO gyres show the least consistency between models and proxy dataInclusion of Heinrich 11 meltwater forcing improves the match between model simulations and proxy data [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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