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BackgroundThe phase 2b proof-of-concept Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials showed that VRC01, an anti-HIV-1 broadly neutralising antibody (bnAb), prevented acquisition of HIV-1 sensitive to VRC01. To inform future study design and dosing regimen selection of candidate bnAbs, we investigated the association of VRC01 serum concentration with HIV-1 acquisition using AMP trial data.MethodsThe case-control sample included 107 VRC01 recipients who acquired HIV-1 and 82 VRC01 recipients who remained without HIV-1 during the study. We measured VRC01 serum concentrations with a qualified pharmacokinetic (PK) Binding Antibody Multiplex Assay. We employed nonlinear mixed effects PK modelling to estimate daily-grid VRC01 concentrations. Cox regression models were used to assess the association of VRC01 concentration at exposure and baseline body weight, with the hazard of HIV-1 acquisition and prevention efficacy as a function of VRC01 concentration. We also compared fixed dosing vs. body weight-based dosing via simulations.FindingsEstimated VRC01 concentrations in VRC01 recipients without HIV-1 were higher than those in VRC01 recipients who acquired HIV-1. Body weight was inversely associated with HIV-1 acquisition among both placebo and VRC01 recipients but did not modify the prevention efficacy of VRC01. VRC01 concentration was inversely correlated with HIV-1 acquisition, and positively correlated with prevention efficacy of VRC01. Simulation studies suggest that fixed dosing may be comparable to weight-based dosing in overall predicted prevention efficacy.InterpretationThese findings suggest that bnAb serum concentration may be a useful marker for dosing regimen selection, and operationally efficient fixed dosing regimens could be considered for future trials of HIV-1 bnAbs.FundingWas provided by the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) (UM1 AI068614, to the HIV Vaccine Trials Network [HVTN]; UM1 AI068635, to the HVTN Statistical Data and Management Center [SDMC], Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center [FHCC]; 2R37 054165 to the FHCC; UM1 AI068618, to HVTN Laboratory Center, FHCC; UM1 AI068619, to the HPTN Leadership and Operations Center; UM1 AI068613, to the HIV Prevention Trials Network [HPTN] Laboratory Center; UM1 AI068617, to the HPTN SDMC; and P30 AI027757, to the Center for AIDS Research, Duke University (AI P30 AI064518) and University of Washington (P30 AI027757) Centers for AIDS Research; R37AI054165 from NIAID to the FHCC; and OPP1032144 CA-VIMC Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Despite significant progress in vaccine research, the level of protection provided by vaccination can vary significantly across individuals. As a result, understanding immunologic variation across individuals in response to vaccination is important for developing next-generation efficacious vaccines. Accurate outcome prediction and identification of predictive biomarkers would represent a significant step towards this goal. Moreover, in early phase vaccine clinical trials, small datasets are prevalent, raising the need and challenge of building a robust and explainable prediction model that can reveal heterogeneity in small datasets. We propose a new model named Generative Mixture of Logistic Regression (GeM-LR), which combines characteristics of both a generative and a discriminative model. In addition, we propose a set of model selection strategies to enhance the robustness and interpretability of the model. GeM-LR extends a linear classifier to a non-linear classifier without losing interpretability and empowers the notion of predictive clustering for characterizing data heterogeneity in connection with the outcome variable. We demonstrate the strengths and utility of GeM-LR by applying it to data from several studies. GeM-LR achieves better prediction results than other popular methods while providing interpretations at different levels. Author summary: Vaccines have proven to be a powerful tool in preventing infectious diseases, yet their effectiveness can vary significantly from person to person. This variability underscores the need for a better understanding of how individuals' immune systems respond to vaccination, which is essential for achieving successful immunization across a broader population. In our study, we introduce a new model called the Generative Mixture of Logistic Regression (GeM-LR) to predict vaccine effectiveness in different individuals. This model is particularly beneficial when only small datasets are available, a common challenge in vaccine research, whereas many advanced machine learning methods require large training datasets. GeM-LR integrates mixture modeling and logistic regression to provide more accurate predictions while also offering insights into the factors that contribute to varying vaccine responses among individuals. We demonstrate that our model outperforms other standard methods in terms of accuracy and enhances the understanding of data for future research. Our innovative approach holds great promise for improving vaccine development. By revealing hidden patterns within small datasets, GeM-LR aims to make vaccine research more efficient and impactful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modestly efficacious HIV-1 vaccine regimen (RV144) conferred 31% vaccine efficacy at 3 years following the four-shot immunization series, coupled with rapid waning of putative immune correlates of decreased infection risk. New strategies to increase magnitude and durability of protective immunity are critically needed. The RV305 HIV-1 clinical trial evaluated the immunological impact of a follow-up boost of HIV-1-uninfected RV144 recipients after 6–8 years with RV144 immunogens (ALVAC-HIV alone, AIDSVAX B/E gp120 alone, or ALVAC-HIV + AIDSVAX B/E gp120). Previous reports demonstrated that this regimen elicited higher binding, antibody Fc function, and cellular responses than the primary RV144 regimen. However, the impact of the canarypox viral vector in driving antibody specificity, breadth, durability and function is unknown. We performed a follow-up analysis of humoral responses elicited in RV305 to determine the impact of the different booster immunogens on HIV-1 epitope specificity, antibody subclass, isotype, and Fc effector functions. Importantly, we observed that the ALVAC vaccine component directly contributed to improved breadth, function, and durability of vaccine-elicited antibody responses. Extended boosts in RV305 increased circulating antibody concentration and coverage of heterologous HIV-1 strains by V1V2-specific antibodies above estimated protective levels observed in RV144. Antibody Fc effector functions, specifically antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity and phagocytosis, were boosted to higher levels than was achieved in RV144. V1V2 Env IgG3, a correlate of lower HIV-1 risk, was not increased; plasma Env IgA (specifically IgA1), a correlate of increased HIV-1 risk, was elevated. The quality of the circulating polyclonal antibody response changed with each booster immunization. Remarkably, the ALVAC-HIV booster immunogen induced antibody responses post-second boost, indicating that the viral vector immunogen can be utilized to selectively enhance immune correlates of decreased HIV-1 risk. These results reveal a complex dynamic of HIV-1 immunity post-vaccination that may require careful balancing to achieve protective immunity in the vaccinated population. Trial registration: RV305 clinical trial (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01435135). ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00223080, ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01931358, ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01923610, ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01461447. Author summary: One strategy for improving vaccine-elicited antibody durability is booster immunization. However, the impact of boosting on the quality of the polyclonal antibody response is not fully understood and may alter vaccine efficacy. We discovered that canarypox vector boost (ALVAC-HIV vectored vaccine component only) drove the recall of HIV-1-specific inverse correlate of risk (V2 IgG) and promoted more durable immunity. We found that delayed boosting increased the concentration of putative protective V1V2-specific IgG circulating in blood, enabling 80% of vaccinees to achieve this level in RV305 compared to 63% in RV144. In contrast to Env IgG1 and IgA1, Env IgG3 was not boosted. However, Env IgG1 correlated with the magnitude of the ADCP response, demonstrating that antibody function can be elevated independent of IgG3 and IgA1. By including a delayed boost as part of a HIV-1 prime-boost vaccine strategy, vaccine-elicited antibodies can reach the putative protective threshold in a larger proportion of the population. However, a second immunogen boost within a 6-month interval shifts the antibody isotype/subclass profile, resulting in decreased antibody functions. A canarypox prime regimen can drive antibody specificity and function. Our study informs selection of immunogen types and immunization intervals for HIV-1 vaccine developers to elicit protective immunity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Developing a cross-clade, globally effective HIV vaccine remains crucial for eliminating HIV.Methods: This placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 1/2a study (NCT02935686) enrolled healthy HIV-uninfected adults at low risk for HIV infection. They were randomized (1:4:1) to receive 4 doses of an adenovirus 26-based HIV-1 vaccine encoding 2 mosaic Gag and Pol, and 2 mosaic Env proteins plus adjuvanted clade C gp140 (referred to here as clade C regimen), bivalent protein regimen (clade C regimen plus mosaic gp140), or placebo. Primary endpoints were safety and antibody responses.Results: 152/155 participants (clade C [n = 26], bivalent protein [n = 103], placebo [n = 26]) received ≥1 injection. The highest adverse event (AE) severity was grade 3 (local pain/tenderness: 12%, 2%, and 0% of the respective groups; solicited systemic AEs: 19%, 15%, 0%). HIV-1 mosaic gp140-binding antibody titers were 79,595 ELISA units [EU]/mL and 137,520 EU/mL in the clade C and bivalent protein groups (P < .001) post-dose 4 and 16,862 EU/mL and 25,162 EU/mL 6 months later. Antibody response breadth against clade C gp140 and clade C/non-clade C gp120 was highest in the bivalent protein group.Conclusions: Adding mosaic gp140 to the clade C regimen increased and broadened the elicited immune response without compromising safety or clade C responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Three doses of novel subtype C gp145 Env protein with alum in a Phase 1 HIV vaccine trial were safe and well-tolerated. • Participants demonstrated effector binding antibodies, Env-specific CD4 + T-cell, and tier 1 neutralizing antibodies. • However, the regimen failed to induce tier 2 or heterologous neutralizing antibody responses. An approach to a preventive HIV vaccine is induction of effective broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) and effector binding antibodies (bAbs). Preclinical studies suggest that trimeric envelope (Env) proteins may elicit nAbs, which led to the development of the recombinant gp145 subtype C Env protein (gp145 C.6980) immunogen. HVTN 122 was a Phase 1 trial that evaluated the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of gp145 C.6980 in adults. Healthy, HIV-1 seronegative adults received three intramuscular injections of gp145 C.6980 with aluminum hydroxide (alum) at months 0, 2, and 6 at either 300 mcg (high dose, n = 25) or 100 mcg (low dose, n = 15), or placebo/saline (placebo, n = 5). Participants were followed for 12 months. Forty-five participants were enrolled. High and low doses of the study protein were well-tolerated, with mild or moderate reactogenicity commonly reported. Only one adverse event (mild injection site pruritis) in one participant (low dose) was considered product-related; there were no dose-limiting toxicities. High and low dose recipients demonstrated robust bAb responses to vaccine-matched consensus gp140 Env and subtype-matched gp120 Env proteins two weeks post-last vaccination (response rates >90 %), while no responses were detected to a heterologous subtype-matched V1V2 antigen. No significant differences were seen between high and low dose groups. Participants in both experimental arms demonstrated nAb response rates of 76.5 % to a tier 1 virus (MW9635.26), but no responses to tier 2 isolates. Env-specific CD4 + T-cell responses were elicited in 36.4 % of vaccine recipients, without significant differences between groups; no participants demonstrated CD8 + T-cell responses. Three doses of novel subtype C gp145 Env protein with alum were safe and well-tolerated. Participants demonstrated bAb, Env-specific CD4 + T-cell, and tier 1 nAb responses, but the regimen failed to induce tier 2 or heterologous nAb responses. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT03382418 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The HVTN 705 Imbokodo trial of 2636 people without HIV and assigned female sex at birth, conducted in southern Africa, evaluated a heterologous HIV-1 vaccine regimen: mosaic adenovirus 26-based vaccine (Ad26.Mos4.HIV) at Months 0, 3, 6, 12 and alum-adjuvanted clade C gp140 at Months 6, 12. Per-protocol vaccine efficacy (VE) against HIV-1 diagnosis from seven to 24 months was 14.1% (95% CI: -22.0% to 39.5%). Immune correlates analysis was performed for markers selected based on prior evidence in efficacy trials and/or nonhuman primate models., Methods: Humoral and cellular immune response markers at Month 7 were evaluated as immune correlates of risk and of protection in a breakthrough case-control cohort (n = 52 cases, 246 non-cases). Primary markers were IgG binding to vaccine-strain gp140, IgG3 binding to diverse Env antigens (IgG3 Env breadth), IgG3 binding to diverse V1V2 antigens (IgG3 V1V2 breadth), antibody-dependent phagocytosis against the vaccine-strain gp140, Env-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses, and multi-epitope functions., Findings: No immune markers were statistically significant correlates of risk. IgG3 V1V2 breadth trended toward an inverse association: hazard ratio 0.70 (95% CI: 0.36 to 1.35; p = 0.29) per 10-fold increase and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.21 to 1.24; p = 0.14) in a Cox model with all primary markers. The VE estimate was 11.8% (95% CI: -17.9% to 34.0%) at all IgG3 V1V2 breadth values below 667 weighted geometric mean net MFI; just above this value, the VE estimate sharply increased to 62.6% (95% CI: -17.9% to 89.6%), and further increased to 80.9% (95% CI: -17.9% to 99.5%) at 1471 MFI, the 95th percentile of the marker distribution. Mediation analysis yielded a VE of 35.7% (95% CI: 15.0% to 51.3%) attributable to the vaccine's impact on this marker., Interpretation: The trend in association of greater IgG3 V1V2 antibody breadth with lower likelihood of HIV acquisition is consistent with the identification of antibodies against V1V2 as immune correlates in three other HIV vaccine efficacy trials and suggests that a greater emphasis should be placed on studying this region in the HIV-1 envelope as a vaccine immunogen., Funding: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Janssen Vaccines & Prevention BV., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests TvdK has a patent application with Johnson & Johnson and has stocks in Johnson & Johnson. BK received internal support for the present manuscript from her employer (Los Alamos National Laboratory). In the past 36 months, she received support for attending meetings and/or travel from NIH NIAID and from the Gates foundation. Her institution (LANL) had a patent on this work, although she did not receive any personal funds through this patent and was not involved with the licensing of the design to Johnson & Johnson. DHB has a patent on the mosaic HIV vaccine, but no royalties. FT was an employee of Janssen/Johnson & Johnson at the time the work was conducted and owns stock in Johnson & Johnson. LL received support from Janssen Infectious Diseases BV, Beerse, Belgium for travel expenses to attend HIV conferences and has stock or stock options in Johnson & Johnson. JvD, MGP, WW, TvdK and JHen are employees of Janssen/Johnson & Johnson and hold stock or stock options in Johnson & Johnson. WW has a patent planned, issued, or pending with Johnson & Johnson. SCDR had contracts in the past 36 months to perform immunogenicity testing for Janssen, Sanofi, and Moderna. HS and DJS were employees of Janssen Vaccines & Prevention BV and had stock and/or stock options in Johnson & Johnson at the time the work was conducted. SN was an employee of Janssen Infectious Diseases BV and had stock and/or stock options in Johnson & Johnson at the time the work was conducted. LP was an employee of Janssen Vaccines & Prevention BV at the time the work was conducted. GDT has received consulting fees for a scientific consulting session. All other authors have no potential competing interests to disclose. Funding for the Imbokodo Study and Correlates Group is the same as listed in “Acknowledgments” for the current work., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)