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Uranus and Neptune have atmospheres dominated by molecular hydrogen and helium. In the upper troposphere, methane is the third main molecule and condenses, yielding a vertical gradient in CH4. This condensable species being heavier than H2 and He, the resulting change in mean molecular weight due to condensation comes as a factor countering dry and moist convection. As observations also show latitudinal variations in methane abundance, one can expect different vertical gradients from one latitude to another. In this paper, we investigate the impact of this methane vertical gradient on the atmospheric regimes, especially on the formation and inhibition of moist convective storms in the troposphere of ice giants. We develop a 3D cloud-resolving model to simulate convective processes. Using our simulations, we conclude that typical velocities of dry convection in the deep atmosphere are rather low (of the order of 1 m/s) but sufficient to sustain upward methane transport, and that moist convection at methane condensation level is strongly inhibited. Previous studies derived an analytical criterion on the methane vapor amount above which moist convection should be inhibited. We first validate this analytical criterion numerically. We then show that the critical methane abundance governs the inhibition and formation of moist convective storms, and we conclude that the intensity and intermittency of these storms should depend on the methane abundance and saturation. In ice giants, dry convection is weak, and moist convection is strongly inhibited. However, when enough methane is transported upwards, through dry convection and turbulent diffusion, sporadic moist convective storms can form. These storms should be more frequent on Neptune than on Uranus, because of Neptune's internal heat flow. Our results can explain the observed sporadicity of clouds in ice giants.

Located at the bottom of the main sequence, ultracool dwarf stars are widespread in the solar neighbourhood. Nevertheless, their extremely low luminosity has left their planetary population largely unexplored, and only one of them, TRAPPIST-1, has so far been found to host a transiting planetary system. In this context, we present the SPECULOOS project's detection of an Earth-sized planet in a 17 h orbit around an ultracool dwarf of M6.5 spectral type located 16.8 pc away. The planet's high irradiation (16 times that of Earth) combined with the infrared luminosity and Jupiter-like size of its host star make it one of the most promising rocky exoplanet targets for detailed emission spectroscopy characterization with JWST. Indeed, our sensitivity study shows that just ten secondary eclipse observations with the Mid-InfraRed Instrument/Low-Resolution Spectrometer on board JWST should provide strong constraints on its atmospheric composition and/or surface mineralogy.

While small, Neptune-like planets are among the most abundant exoplanets, our understanding of their atmospheric structure and dynamics remains sparse. In particular, many unknowns remain on the way moist convection works in these atmospheres where condensable species are heavier than the non-condensable background gas. While it has been predicted that moist convection could shut-down above some threshold abundance of these condensable species, this prediction is based on simple linear analysis and relies on strong assumptions on the saturation of the atmosphere. To investigate this issue, we develop a 3D cloud resolving model for H2 atmospheres with large amounts of condensable species and apply this model to a prototypical temperate Neptune-like planet -- K2-18b. Our model confirms the shut-down of moist convection and the onset of a stably stratified layer in the atmosphere, leading to much hotter deep atmospheres and interiors. Our 3D simulations further provide quantitative estimates of the turbulent mixing in this stable layer, which is a key driver of the cycling of condensables in the atmosphere. This allows us to build a very simple, yet realistic 1D model that captures the most salient features of the structure of Neptune-like atmospheres. Our qualitative findings on the behavior of moist convection in hydrogen atmospheres go beyond temperate planets and should also apply to the regions where iron and silicates condense in the deep interior of H2-dominated planets. Finally, we use our model to investigate the likelihood of a liquid ocean beneath a H2 dominated atmosphere on K2-18b. We find that the planet would need to have a very high albedo (>0.5-0.6) to sustain a liquid ocean. However, due to the spectral type of the star, the amount of aerosol scattering that would be needed to provide such a high albedo is inconsistent with the latest observational data., Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics

Given the inexorable increase in the Sun's luminosity, Earth will exit the habitable zone in ~1 Gyr. There is a negligible chance that Earth's orbit will change during that time through internal Solar System dynamics. However, there is a ~1% chance per Gyr that a star will pass within 100 au of the Sun. Here, we use N-body simulations to evaluate the possible evolutionary pathways of the planets under the perturbation from a close stellar passage. We find a ~92% chance that all eight planets will survive on orbits similar to their current ones if a star passes within 100 au of the Sun. Yet a passing star may disrupt the Solar System, by directly perturbing the planets' orbits or by triggering a dynamical instability. Mercury is the most fragile, with a destruction rate (usually via collision with the Sun) higher than that of the four giant planets combined. The most probable destructive pathways for Earth are to undergo a giant impact (with the Moon or Venus) or to collide with the Sun. Each planet may find itself on a very different orbit than its present-day one, in some cases with high eccentricities or inclinations. There is a small chance that Earth could end up on a more distant (colder) orbit, through re-shuffling of the system's orbital architecture, ejection into interstellar space (or into the Oort cloud), or capture by the passing star. We quantify plausible outcomes for the post-flyby Solar System., Comment: 13 pages. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Related blog post at https://planetplanet.net/2023/11/21/could-a-stellar-flyby-save-earth-from-impending-doom/

Water vapour atmospheres with content equivalent to the Earth's oceans, resulting from impacts or a high insolation, were found to yield a surface magma ocean. This was, however, a consequence of assuming a fully convective structure. Here we report, using a consistent climate model, that pure steam atmospheres are commonly shaped by radiative layers, making their thermal structure strongly dependent on the stellar spectrum and internal heat flow. The surface is cooler when an adiabatic profile is not imposed: melting Earth's crust requires an insolation several times higher than today, which will not happen during the main-sequence of the Sun. Venus' surface can solidify before the steam atmosphere escapes, which is opposite to previous works. Around the reddest stars ($T_{eff}<$3000K), surface magma oceans cannot form by stellar forcing alone, whatever the water content. These findings affect observable signatures of steam atmospheres and exoplanet mass-radius relationships, drastically changing current constraints on the water content of Trappist-1 planets. Unlike adiabatic structures, radiative-convective profiles are sensitive to opacities. New measurements of poorly constrained high-pressure opacities, in particular far from the H$_2$O absorption bands, are thus necessary to refine models of steam atmospheres, which are important stages in terrestrial planet evolution., Comment: 23 pages, 3 figures in the main text, 6 figures and 1 table in the Methods. Published in Nature: 09 August 2023 (received 14 July 2022, accepted 24 May 2023)

Ultra-cool dwarf stars are abundant, long-lived, and uniquely suited to enable the atmospheric study of transiting terrestrial companions with JWST. Amongst them, the most prominent is the M8.5V star TRAPPIST-1 and its seven planets. While JWST Cycle 1 observations have started to yield preliminary insights into the planets, they have also revealed that their atmospheric exploration requires a better understanding of their host star. Here, we propose a roadmap to characterize the TRAPPIST-1 system -- and others like it -- in an efficient and robust manner. We notably recommend that -- although more challenging to schedule -- multi-transit windows be prioritized to mitigate the effects of stellar activity and gather up to twice more transits per JWST hour spent. We conclude that, for such systems, planets cannot be studied in isolation by small programs, but rather need large-scale, jointly space- and ground-based initiatives to fully exploit the capabilities of JWST for the exploration of terrestrial planets.

The conventional observables to identify a habitable or inhabited environment in exoplanets, such as an ocean glint or abundant atmospheric O$_2$, will be challenging to detect with present or upcoming observatories. Here we suggest a new signature. A low carbon abundance in the atmosphere of a temperate rocky planet, relative to other planets of the same system, traces the presence of substantial amount of liquid water, plate tectonic and/or biomass. We show that JWST can already perform such a search in some selected systems like TRAPPIST-1 via the CO$_2$ band at $4.3\,\rm \mu m$, which falls in a spectral sweet spot where the overall noise budget and the effect of cloud/hazes are optimal. We propose a 3-step strategy for transiting exoplanets: 1) detection of an atmosphere around temperate terrestrial planets in $\sim 10$ transits for the most favorable systems, (2) assessment of atmospheric carbon depletion in $\sim 40$ transits, (3) measurements of O$_3$ abundance to disentangle between a water- vs biomass-supported carbon depletion in $\sim100$ transits. The concept of carbon depletion as a signature for habitability is also applicable for next-generation direct imaging telescopes., Comment: 35 pages, 5 figures, "director's cut version of the paper"

Understanding the set of conditions that allow rocky planets to have liquid water on their surface -- in the form of lakes, seas or oceans -- is a major scientific step to determine the fraction of planets potentially suitable for the emergence and development of life as we know it on Earth. This effort is also necessary to define and refine the so-called "Habitable Zone" (HZ) in order to guide the search for exoplanets likely to harbor remotely detectable life forms. Until now, most numerical climate studies on this topic have focused on the conditions necessary to maintain oceans, but not to form them in the first place. Here we use the three-dimensional Generic Planetary Climate Model (PCM), historically known as the LMD Generic Global Climate Model (GCM), to simulate water-dominated planetary atmospheres around different types of Main-Sequence stars. The simulations are designed to reproduce the conditions of early ocean formation on rocky planets due to the condensation of the primordial water reservoir at the end of the magma ocean phase. We show that the incoming stellar radiation (ISR) required to form oceans by condensation is always drastically lower than that required to vaporize oceans. We introduce a Water Condensation Limit, which lies at significantly lower ISR than the inner edge of the HZ calculated with three-dimensional numerical climate simulations. This difference is due to a behavior change of water clouds, from low-altitude dayside convective clouds to high-altitude nightside stratospheric clouds. Finally, we calculated transit spectra, emission spectra and thermal phase curves of TRAPPIST-1b, c and d with H2O-rich atmospheres, and compared them to CO2 atmospheres and bare rock simulations. We show using these observables that JWST has the capability to probe steam atmospheres on low-mass planets, and could possibly test the existence of nightside water clouds., Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics

The first JWST observations of TRAPPIST-1 c showed a secondary eclipse depth of 421+/-94 ppm at 15 um, which is consistent with a bare rock surface or a thin, O2-dominated, low CO2 atmosphere (Zieba et al. 2023). Here, we further explore potential atmospheres for TRAPPIST-1 c by comparing the observed secondary eclipse depth to synthetic spectra of a broader range of plausible environments. To self-consistently incorporate the impact of photochemistry and atmospheric composition on atmospheric thermal structure and predicted eclipse depth, we use a two-column climate model coupled to a photochemical model, and simulate O2-dominated, Venus-like, and steam atmospheres. We find that a broader suite of plausible atmospheric compositions are also consistent with the data. For lower pressure atmospheres (0.1 bar), our O2-CO2 atmospheres produce eclipse depths within 1$\sigma$ of the data, consistent with the modeling results of Zieba et al. (2023). However, for higher-pressure atmospheres, our models produce different temperature-pressure profiles and are less pessimistic, with 1-10 bar O2, 100 ppm CO2 models within 2.0-2.2$\sigma$ of the measured secondary eclipse depth, and up to 0.5% CO2 within 2.9$\sigma$. Venus-like atmospheres are still unlikely. For thin O2 atmospheres of 0.1 bar with a low abundance of CO2 ($\sim$100 ppm), up to 10% water vapor can be present and still provide an eclipse depth within 1$\sigma$ of the data. We compared the TRAPPIST-1 c data to modeled steam atmospheres of $\leq$ 3 bar, which are 1.7-1.8$\sigma$ from the data and not conclusively ruled out. More data will be required to discriminate between possible atmospheres, or to more definitively support the bare rock hypothesis., Comment: 15 pages, accepted to APJL

Seven rocky planets orbit the nearby dwarf star TRAPPIST-1, providing a unique opportunity to search for atmospheres on small planets outside the Solar System (Gillon et al., 2017). Thanks to the recent launch of JWST, possible atmospheric constituents such as carbon dioxide (CO2) are now detectable (Morley et al., 2017, Lincowski et al., 2018}. Recent JWST observations of the innermost planet TRAPPIST-1 b showed that it is most probably a bare rock without any CO2 in its atmosphere (Greene et al., 2023). Here we report the detection of thermal emission from the dayside of TRAPPIST-1 c with the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) on JWST at 15 micron. We measure a planet-to-star flux ratio of fp/fs = 421 +/- 94 parts per million (ppm) which corresponds to an inferred dayside brightness temperature of 380 +/- 31 K. This high dayside temperature disfavours a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on the planet. The data rule out cloud-free O2/CO2 mixtures with surface pressures ranging from 10 bar (with 10 ppm CO2) to 0.1 bar (pure CO2). A Venus-analogue atmosphere with sulfuric acid clouds is also disfavoured at 2.6 sigma confidence. Thinner atmospheres or bare-rock surfaces are consistent with our measured planet-to-star flux ratio. The absence of a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on TRAPPIST-1 c suggests a relatively volatile-poor formation history, with less than 9.5 +7.5 -2.3 Earth oceans of water. If all planets in the system formed in the same way, this would indicate a limited reservoir of volatiles for the potentially habitable planets in the system., Comment: Published in Nature on June 19th. 2023, 10 figures, 4 tables

From the Archean toward the Proterozoic, the Earth's atmosphere underwent a major shift from anoxic to oxic conditions, around 2.4 to 2.1 Gyr, known as the Great Oxidation Event (GOE). This rapid transition may be related to an atmospheric instability caused by the formation of the ozone layer. Previous works were all based on 1D photochemical models. Here, we revisit the GOE with a 3D photochemical-climate model to investigate the possible impact of the atmospheric circulation and the coupling between the climate and the dynamics of the oxidation. We show that the diurnal, seasonal and transport variations do not bring significant changes compared to 1D models. Nevertheless, we highlight a temperature dependence for atmospheric photochemical losses. A cooling during the late Archean could then have favored the triggering of the oxygenation. In addition, we show that the Huronian glaciations, which took place during the GOE, could have introduced a fluctuation in the evolution of the oxygen level. Finally, we show that the oxygen overshoot which is expected to have occurred just after the GOE, was likely accompanied by a methane overshoot. Such high methane concentrations could have had climatic consequences and could have played a role in the dynamics of the Huronian glaciations.