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This study introduces a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model aimed at evaluating the risk of invasive listeriosis linked to the consumption of ready-to-eat (RTE) smoked and gravad fish. The QRA model, based on published data, simulates the production process from fish harvest through to consumer intake, specifically focusing on smoked brine-injected, smoked dry-salted, and gravad fish. In a reference scenario, model predictions reveal substantial probabilities of lot and pack contamination at the end of processing (38.7% and 8.14% for smoked brined fish, 34.4% and 6.49% for smoked dry-salted fish, and 52.2% and 11.1% for gravad fish), although the concentrations of L. monocytogenes are very low, with virtually no packs exceeding 10 CFU/g at the point of sale. The risk of listeriosis for an elderly consumer per serving is also quantified. The lot-level mean risk of listeriosis per serving in the elderly population was 9.751 × 10−8 for smoked brined fish, 9.634 × 10−8 for smoked dry-salted fish, and 2.086 × 10−7 for gravad fish. Risk reduction strategies were then analyzed, indicating that the application of protective cultures and maintaining lower cold storage temperatures significantly mitigate listeriosis risk compared to reducing incoming fish lot contamination. The model also addresses the effectiveness of control measures during processing, such as minimizing cross-contamination. The comprehensive QRA model has been made available as a fully documented qraLm R package. This facilitates its adaptation for risk assessment of other RTE seafood, making it a valuable tool for public health officials to evaluate and manage food safety risks more effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pathways for exposure and dissemination of antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) bacteria are major public health issues. Filter-feeding shellfish concentrate bacteria from the environment and thus can also harbor extended-spectrum β-lactamase—producing Escherichia coli (ESBL E. coli) as an example of a resistant pathogen of concern. Is the short steaming procedure that blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) undergo before consumption enough for food safety in regard to such resistant pathogens? In this study, we performed experiments to assess the survival of ESBL E. coli in blue mussel. Consequently, a predictive model for the dose of ESBL E. coli that consumers would be exposed to, after preparing blue mussels or similar through the common practice of brief steaming until opening of the shells, was performed. The output of the model is the expected number of colony forming units per gram (cfu/g) of ESBL E. coli in a meal as a function of the duration and the temperature of steaming and the initial contamination. In these experiments, the heat tolerance of the ESBL-producing E. coli strain was indistinguishable from that of non-ESBL E. coli, and the heat treatments often practiced are likely to be insufficient to avoid exposure to viable ESBL E. coli. Steaming time (>3.5–4.0 min) is a better indicator than shell openness to avoid exposure to these ESBL or indicator E. coli strains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]