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Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

Purpose of reviewIncreasing wildfire size and severity across the western United States has created an environmental and social crisis that must be approached from a transdisciplinary perspective. Climate change and more than a century of fire exclusion and wildfire suppression have led to contemporary wildfires with more severe environmental impacts and human smoke exposure. Wildfires increase smoke exposure for broad swaths of the US population, though outdoor workers and socially disadvantaged groups with limited adaptive capacity can be disproportionally exposed. Exposure to wildfire smoke is associated with a range of health impacts in children and adults, including exacerbation of existing respiratory diseases such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, worse birth outcomes, and cardiovascular events. Seasonally dry forests in Washington, Oregon, and California can benefit from ecological restoration as a way to adapt forests to climate change and reduce smoke impacts on affected communities.Recent findingsEach wildfire season, large smoke events, and their adverse impacts on human health receive considerable attention from both the public and policymakers. The severity of recent wildfire seasons has state and federal governments outlining budgets and prioritizing policies to combat the worsening crisis. This surging attention provides an opportunity to outline the actions needed now to advance research and practice on conservation, economic, environmental justice, and public health interests, as well as the trade-offs that must be considered. Scientists, planners, foresters and fire managers, fire safety, air quality, and public health practitioners must collaboratively work together. This article is the result of a series of transdisciplinary conversations to find common ground and subsequently provide a holistic view of how forest and fire management intersect with human health through the impacts of smoke and articulate the need for an integrated approach to both planning and practice.

Wildfires and climate change increasingly are transforming vegetation composition and structure, and postfire management may have long‐lasting effects on ecosystem reorganization. Postfire aerial seeding treatments are commonly used to reduce runoff and soil erosion, but little is known about how seeding treatments affect native vegetation recovery over long periods of time, particularly in type‐converted forests that have been dramatically transformed by the effects of repeated, high‐severity fire. In this study, we analyze and report on a rare long‐term (23‐year) dataset that documents vegetation dynamics following a 1996 post‐fire aerial seeding treatment and a subsequent 2011 high‐severity reburn in a dry conifer landscape of northern New Mexico, USA. Repeated surveys between 1997 and 2019 of 49 permanent transects were analyzed for differences in vegetation cover, richness, and diversity between seeded and unseeded areas, and to characterize the development of seeded and unseeded vegetation communities through time and across gradients of burn severity, elevation, and soil‐available water capacity. Seeded plots showed no significant difference in bare ground cover during the initial years postfire relative to unseeded plots. Postfire seeding led to a clear and sustained divergence in herbaceous community composition. Seeded plots had a much higher cover of non‐native graminoids, primarily Bromus inermis, a likely contaminant in the seed mix. High‐severity reburning of all plots in 2011 reduced native graminoid cover by half at seeded plots compared with both prefire levels and with plots that were unseeded following the initial 1996 fire. In addition, higher fire severity was associated with increased non‐native graminoid cover and reduced native graminoid cover. This study documents fire‐driven ecosystem transformation from conifer forest into a shrub‐and‐grass‐dominated system, reinforced by aerial seeding of grasses and high‐severity reburning. This unique long‐term dataset illustrates that post‐fire seeding carries significant risks of unwanted non‐native species invasions that persist through subsequent fires—thus alternative postfire management actions merit consideration to better support native ecosystem resilience given emergent climate change and increasing disturbance. This study also highlights the importance of long‐term monitoring of postfire vegetation dynamics, as short‐term assessments miss key elements of complex ecosystem responses to fire and postfire management actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A combination of forest thinning followed by prescribed burning is widely applied in the western United States to increase ecosystem resistance and resilience to disturbances. Understory plant community responses may be driven by both management treatments and climatic factors. Thus, responses to treatments during a 20‐year megadrought have implications for the role of management in fostering adaptive capacity to climate change.We used a network of five sites (600 plots) spanning an environmental gradient in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests of the American Southwest, an ecosystem that is broadly distributed and actively managed throughout the western United States. We used repeated long‐term monitoring data to quantify plant community responses to treatment 1–5‐, 6–10‐ and >10‐year post‐implementation. Specifically, we focussed on the effects of treatment and abiotic conditions on native and non‐native plant cover and species richness and the proportion of native species with northern (cool‐mesic) biogeographic affinities.Overall, thinning and prescribed burning nearly doubled native cover and increased native species richness by about 50% relative to untreated controls. These effects persisted for over a decade after treatment, even under the influence of significant and persistent drought. Cover and richness were also greater on intermediate to wet sites. Finally, native species with northern biogeographic affinities were reduced for up to 5 years after treatment relative to those with southern (warm‐xeric) affinities, and in dry years, indicating that both management and interannual climate variability may foster shifts to plant communities that are more resilient to a warming climate.Synthesis and applications. In ponderosa pine forests of the American Southwest, tree thinning followed by prescribed burning will generally promote restoration goals of increasing resilience to climate change by enhancing the diversity and abundance of native understory plant species, even during a persistent 20‐year megadrought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose of Review: Increasing wildfire size and severity across the western United States has created an environmental and social crisis that must be approached from a transdisciplinary perspective. Climate change and more than a century of fire exclusion and wildfire suppression have led to contemporary wildfires with more severe environmental impacts and human smoke exposure. Wildfires increase smoke exposure for broad swaths of the US population, though outdoor workers and socially disadvantaged groups with limited adaptive capacity can be disproportionally exposed. Exposure to wildfire smoke is associated with a range of health impacts in children and adults, including exacerbation of existing respiratory diseases such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, worse birth outcomes, and cardiovascular events. Seasonally dry forests in Washington, Oregon, and California can benefit from ecological restoration as a way to adapt forests to climate change and reduce smoke impacts on affected communities., Recent Findings: Each wildfire season, large smoke events, and their adverse impacts on human health receive considerable attention from both the public and policymakers. The severity of recent wildfire seasons has state and federal governments outlining budgets and prioritizing policies to combat the worsening crisis. This surging attention provides an opportunity to outline the actions needed now to advance research and practice on conservation, economic, environmental justice, and public health interests, as well as the trade-offs that must be considered. Scientists, planners, foresters and fire managers, fire safety, air quality, and public health practitioners must collaboratively work together. This article is the result of a series of transdisciplinary conversations to find common ground and subsequently provide a holistic view of how forest and fire management intersect with human health through the impacts of smoke and articulate the need for an integrated approach to both planning and practice., (© 2022. The Author(s).)