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Population dynamics of migratory species are influenced by land use and climate patterns experienced across the full annual cycle. Identifying environmental factors influencing productivity, survival, and their relative contributions to abundance and population growth is critical for the recovery and management of at‐risk species in the face of continuing global change. The golden‐cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) is an endangered passerine that breeds exclusively in the mixed Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei)–oak (Quercus) woodlands of Central Texas, USA, and winters at high elevations in Central America. We evaluated the effects of precipitation, climate, and land cover on golden‐cheeked warbler productivity, adult male survival, and territory abundance using data from a long‐term monitoring site, the Balcones Canyonlands Preserve, in Austin, Texas. We jointly analyzed annual productivity, mark–recapture, and territory count data collected on 10 plots from 2011 to 2019 in an integrated population model. The number of young fledged per male territory was negatively related to percent urban land cover within 1 km of monitoring plots, and adult male survival was negatively related to a strong El Niño event. Estimates of population growth and abundance indicated a decline in abundance across our study period. We forecasted population viability 25 years into the future given increases in urban development and frequency of El Niño events. Quasi‐extinction probability increased from 0.17 under current urban land cover conditions and El Niño frequency to 0.41 under the scenario of a 10% increase in urban development around all plots and an increase in El Niño frequency. Productivity and adult survival were positively correlated with population growth, highlighting the need for conservation and management actions to maximize these vital rates on the breeding grounds and range‐wide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Climate warming directly affects insect disturbance regimes by altering temperature-dependent population development. Indirect effects of climate change on insect disturbance may mediate or accelerate direct effects via vegetation feedback (e.g. host tree demographic dynamics). However, such indirect effects have rarely been incorporated in predicting insect disturbance regimes. 2. We included both direct and indirect effects in a forest landscape modelling framework to simulate red oak borer [ROB, Enaphalodes rufulus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)] disturbance regimes under a warming climate from 2000 to 2150 in the Central Hardwood Forests, U.S. We quantified effect sizes and relative importance of direct effects and indirect effects of warming climate on the ROB disturbance using a factorial experimental design and two-way ANOVA. 3. Both direct and indirect effects acted positively in the short and medium term (e.g. 0-100 years) while the effect size of indirect effects changed over time from positive (+30.9 kha) to negative (-17.3 kha) and mediated the positive direct effects in the long term (e.g. 100-150 years). 4. Direct effects had greater influence than indirect effects on ROB disturbed areas in the short term (e.g. <50 years), whereas indirect effects were more important (ω² = 0.38 vs. 0.26) in the long term. This was because the host tree abundance significantly declined over time under warming climates, which decreased the forest susceptibility to ROB and thus overrode the outbreak-promoting effects of warming climates in the long term. 5. Synthesis and applications. This study reveals indirect effects of warming climates mediate direct effects on insect disturbance regimes by altering primary host tree demographic dynamics. We highlight that indirect effects are important in understanding insect disturbance regimes under warming climates as they may mediate or even reverse the expectation of increased insect disturbance. Long-term predictions of insect disturbance without considering indirect effects may overestimate its impacts under warming climates. Our findings also indicate that different management interventions are required at different time-scales to maintain oak forests' health and sustainability in the U.S. central temperate broadleaf forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]