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BackgroundReports on hypothermia from high-burden countries like Kenya amongst sick newborns often include few centers or relatively small sample sizes.ObjectivesThis study endeavored to describe: (i) the burden of hypothermia on admission across 21 newborn units in Kenya, (ii) any trend in prevalence of hypothermia over time, (iii) factors associated with hypothermia at admission, and (iv) hypothermia's association with inpatient neonatal mortality.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted from January 2020 to March 2023, focusing on small and sick newborns admitted in 21 NBUs. The primary and secondary outcome measures were the prevalence of hypothermia at admission and mortality during the index admission, respectively. An ordinal logistic regression model was used to estimate the relationship between selected factors and the outcomes cold stress (36.0°C–36.4°C) and hypothermia (

Abstract Background and Aims Prognostic models provide evidence‐based predictions and estimates of future outcomes, facilitating decision‐making, patient care, and research. A few of these models have been externally validated, leading to uncertain reliability and generalizability. This study aims to externally validate four models to assess their transferability and usefulness in clinical practice. The models include the respiratory index of severity in children (RISC)‐Malawi model and three other models by Lowlavaar et al. Methods The study used data from the Clinical Information Network (CIN) to validate the four models where the primary outcome was in‐hospital mortality. 163,329 patients met eligibility criteria. Missing data were imputed, and the logistic function was used to compute predicted risk of in‐hospital mortality. Models' discriminatory ability and calibration were determined using area under the curve (AUC), calibration slope, and intercept. Results The RISC‐Malawi model had 50,669 pneumonia patients who met the eligibility criteria, of which the case‐fatality ratio was 4406 (8.7%). Its AUC was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.77−0.78), whereas the calibration slope was 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00 −1.06), and calibration intercept was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77−0.84). Regarding the external validation of Lowlavaar et al. models, 10,782 eligible patients were included, with an in‐hospital mortality rate of 5.3%. The primary model's AUC was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.72−0.77), the calibration slope was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.71−0.84), and the calibration intercept was 0.37 (95% CI: 0.28−0.46). All models markedly underestimated the risk of mortality. Conclusion All externally validated models exhibited either underestimation or overestimation of the risk as judged from calibration statistics. Hence, applying these models with confidence in settings other than their original development context may not be advisable. Our findings strongly suggest the need for recalibrating these model to enhance their generalizability.

Abstract Background Two neonatal mortality prediction models, the Neonatal Essential Treatment Score (NETS) which uses treatments prescribed at admission and the Score for Essential Neonatal Symptoms and Signs (SENSS) which uses basic clinical signs, were derived in high-mortality, low-resource settings to utilise data more likely to be available in these settings. In this study, we evaluate the predictive accuracy of two neonatal prediction models for all-cause in-hospital mortality. Methods We used retrospectively collected routine clinical data recorded by duty clinicians at admission from 16 Kenyan hospitals used to externally validate and update the SENSS and NETS models that were initially developed from the data from the largest Kenyan maternity hospital to predict in-hospital mortality. Model performance was evaluated by assessing discrimination and calibration. Discrimination, the ability of the model to differentiate between those with and without the outcome, was measured using the c-statistic. Calibration, the agreement between predictions from the model and what was observed, was measured using the calibration intercept and slope (with values of 0 and 1 denoting perfect calibration). Results At initial external validation, the estimated mortality risks from the original SENSS and NETS models were markedly overestimated with calibration intercepts of − 0.703 (95% CI − 0.738 to − 0.669) and − 1.109 (95% CI − 1.148 to − 1.069) and too extreme with calibration slopes of 0.565 (95% CI 0.552 to 0.577) and 0.466 (95% CI 0.451 to 0.480), respectively. After model updating, the calibration of the model improved. The updated SENSS and NETS models had calibration intercepts of 0.311 (95% CI 0.282 to 0.350) and 0.032 (95% CI − 0.002 to 0.066) and calibration slopes of 1.029 (95% CI 1.006 to 1.051) and 0.799 (95% CI 0.774 to 0.823), respectively, while showing good discrimination with c-statistics of 0.834 (95% CI 0.829 to 0.839) and 0.775 (95% CI 0.768 to 0.782), respectively. The overall calibration performance of the updated SENSS and NETS models was better than any existing neonatal in-hospital mortality prediction models externally validated for settings comparable to Kenya. Conclusion Few prediction models undergo rigorous external validation. We show how external validation using data from multiple locations enables model updating and improving their performance and potential value. The improved models indicate it is possible to predict in-hospital mortality using either treatments or signs and symptoms derived from routine neonatal data from low-resource hospital settings also making possible their use for case-mix adjustment when contrasting similar hospital settings.

Abstract Background Medication errors are likely common in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In neonatal hospital care where the population with severe illness has a high mortality rate, around 14.9% of drug prescriptions have errors in LMICs settings. However, there is scant research on interventions to improve medication safety to mitigate such errors. Our objective is to improve routine neonatal care particularly focusing on effective prescribing practices with the aim of achieving reduced gentamicin medication errors. Methods We propose to conduct an audit and feedback (A&F) study over 12 months in 20 hospitals with 12 months of baseline data. The medical and nursing leaders on their newborn units had been organised into a network that facilitates evaluating intervention approaches for improving quality of neonatal care in these hospitals and are receiving basic feedback generated from the baseline data. In this study, the network will (1) be expanded to include all hospital pharmacists, (2) include a pharmacist-only professional WhatsApp discussion group for discussing prescription practices, and (3) support all hospitals to facilitate pharmacist-led continuous medical education seminars on prescription practices at hospital level, i.e. default intervention package. A subset of these hospitals (n = 10) will additionally (1) have an additional hospital-specific WhatsApp group for the pharmacists to discuss local performance with their local clinical team, (2) receive detailed A&F prescription error reports delivered through mobile-based dashboard, and (3) receive a PDF infographic summarising prescribing performance circulated to the clinicians through the hospital-specific WhatsApp group, i.e. an extended package. Using interrupted time series analysis modelling changes in prescribing errors over time, coupled with process fidelity evaluation, and WhatsApp sentiment analysis, we will evaluate the success with which the A&F interventions are delivered, received, and acted upon to reduce prescribing error while exploring the extended package’s success/failure relative to the default intervention package. Discussion If effective, these theory-informed A&F strategies that carefully consider the challenges of LMICs settings will support the improvement of medication prescribing practices with the insights gained adapted for other clinical behavioural targets of a similar nature. Trial registration PACTR, PACTR202203869312307 . Registered 17th March 2022.

Abstract Neonatal mortality remains disproportionately high in sub-Saharan Africa partly due to insufficient numbers of adequately trained and skilled front-line health workers. Opportunities for improving neonatal care may result from upskilling frontline health workers using innovative technological approaches. This practice paper describes the key steps involved in the design, development and implementation of an innovative smartphone-based training application using an agile, human-centred design approach. The Life-saving Instruction for Emergencies (LIFE) app is a three-dimension (3D) scenario-based mobile app for smartphones and is free to download. Two clinical modules are currently included with further scenarios planned. Whilst the focus of the practice paper is on the lessons learned during the design and development process, we also share key learning related to project management and sustainability plans, which we hope will help researchers working on similar projects.

Objective In this study, we assess the indirect impact of COVID-19 on utilisation of immunisation and outpatient services in Kenya.Design Longitudinal study.Setting Data were analysed from all healthcare facilities reporting to Kenya’s health information system from January 2018 to March 2021. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data, interrupted time series analysis was used to quantify the changes in utilisation of services and sensitivity analysis was carried out to assess robustness of estimates.Exposure of interest COVID-19 outbreak and associated interventions.Outcome measures Monthly attendance to health facilities. We assessed changes in immunisation and various outpatient services nationally.Results Before the first case of COVID-19 and pursuant intervention measures in March 2020, uptake of health services was consistent with historical levels. There was significant drops in attendance (level changes) in April 2020 for overall outpatient visits for under-fives (rate ratio, RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.57), under-fives with pneumonia (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.47), overall over-five visits (RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), over-fives with pneumonia (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.70), fourth antenatal care visit (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.93), total hypertension (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.96), diabetes cases (RR 0.95 95% CI, 0.93 to 0.97) and HIV testing (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.99). Immunisation services, first antenatal care visits, new cases of hypertension and diabetes were not affected. The post-COVID-19 trend was increasing, with more recent data suggesting reversal of effects and health services reverting to expected levels as of March 2021.Conclusion COVID-19 pandemic has had varied indirect effects on utilisation of health services in Kenya. There is need for proactive and targeted interventions to reverse these effects as part of the pandemic’s response to avert non-COVID-19 indirect mortality.

The objectives of this study were to (1)explore the quality of clinical data generated from hospitals providing in-patient neonatal care participating in a clinical information network (CIN) and whether data improved over time, and if data are adequate, (2)characterise accuracy of prescribing for basic treatments provided to neonatal in-patients over time. This was a retrospective cohort study involving neonates ≤28 days admitted between January 2018 and December 2021 in 20 government hospitals with an interquartile range of annual neonatal inpatient admissions between 550 and 1640 in Kenya. These hospitals participated in routine audit and feedback processes on quality of documentation and care over the study period. The study's outcomes were the number of patients as a proportion of all eligible patients over time with (1)complete domain-specific documentation scores, and (2)accurate domain-specific treatment prescription scores at admission, reported as incidence rate ratios. 80,060 neonatal admissions were eligible for inclusion. Upon joining CIN, documentation scores in the monitoring, other physical examination and bedside testing, discharge information, and maternal history domains demonstrated a statistically significant month-to-month relative improvement in number of patients with complete documentation of 7.6%, 2.9%, 2.4%, and 2.0% respectively. There was also statistically significant month-to-month improvement in prescribing accuracy after joining the CIN of 2.8% and 1.4% for feeds and fluids but not for Antibiotic prescriptions. Findings suggest that much of the variation observed is due to hospital-level factors. It is possible to introduce tools that capture important clinical data at least 80% of the time in routine African hospital settings but analyses of such data will need to account for missingness using appropriate statistical techniques. These data allow exploration of trends in performance and could support better impact evaluation, exploration of links between health system inputs and outcomes and scrutiny of variation in quality and outcomes of hospital care.