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Abstract Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout an illustrative large lake, (2) evaluate patterns of historic and potential future climate‐induced larval transport, and (3) consider consequences for overlap with suitable temperatures and prey. Simulations demonstrate that relative offshore transport increases seasonally, with shifts toward offshore transport occurring earlier during relatively warm historic and future simulations. Intra‐ and inter‐annual trends in transport were robust to assumed pelagic larval duration and precise location and timing of hatching. Larvae retained nearshore generally encountered more favorable temperatures and zooplankton densities compared to larvae transported offshore. Larval exploitation of nearshore resources under climate change may depend on a concomitant shift to earlier spawning and hatch times in advance of earlier offshore transport.

Abstract How to identify the drivers of population connectivity remains a fundamental question in ecology and evolution. Answering this question can be challenging in aquatic environments where dynamic lake and ocean currents coupled with high levels of dispersal and gene flow can decrease the utility of modern population genetic tools. To address this challenge, we used RAD‐Seq to genotype 959 yellow perch (Perca flavescens), a species with an ~40‐day pelagic larval duration (PLD), collected from 20 sites circumscribing Lake Michigan. We also developed a novel, integrative approach that couples detailed biophysical models with eco‐genetic agent‐based models to generate “predictive” values of genetic differentiation. By comparing predictive and empirical values of genetic differentiation, we estimated the relative contributions for known drivers of population connectivity (e.g., currents, behavior, PLD). For the main basin populations (i.e., the largest contiguous portion of the lake), we found that high gene flow led to low overall levels of genetic differentiation among populations (FST = 0.003). By far the best predictors of genetic differentiation were connectivity matrices that were derived from periods of time when there were strong and highly dispersive currents. Thus, these highly dispersive currents are driving the patterns of population connectivity in the main basin. We also found that populations from the northern and southern main basin are slightly divergent from one another, while those from Green Bay and the main basin are highly divergent (FST = 0.11). By integrating biophysical and eco‐genetic models with genome‐wide data, we illustrate that the drivers of population connectivity can be identified in high gene flow systems.

Aquatic food webs are spatially complex, potentially contributing to intraspecific variability in production pathway reliance of intermediate trophic level consumers. Variation in trophic reliance may be described by well-established trophic indicators, like stable isotope ratios (δ13C, δ15N), along with emerging trophic indicators, such as fatty acid composition. We evaluated stable isotope ratios and fatty acid profiles of European smelt (Osmerus eperlanus) among and within distinct regions of three large Swedish lakes (Hjälmaren, Mälaren, Vättern) which differed in trophic status. We expected that smelts in more oligotrophic lakes and regions would be characterized by distinct stable isotope signatures and fatty acid profiles, with particularly high polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) relative levels. However, we acknowledge that frequent movement of smelts among regions may serve to spatially integrate their diet and lead to limited within-lake variation in stable isotope ratios and fatty acid composition. As expected, in comparison with more productive lakes (i.e., Hjälmaren and Mälaren), smelts from ultra-oligotrophic Vättern were characterized by low δ15N, high δ13C and high percent of a dominant PUFA, docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). Smelts from different regions of the morphometrically complex Mälaren displayed differential stable isotope ratios and fatty acid relative concentrations, which were consistent with within-lake differences in productivity and water residence times, suggesting that smelts in this lake forage locally within distinct regions. Finally, at the individual smelt level there were particularly strong and consistent associations between a well-established trophic indicator (δ13C) and percent DHA, suggesting that the relative concentration of this fatty acid may be a useful additional trophic indicator for smelt.