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isbn: 9781032715421, Pages: 140

With the world tackling energy shortages, geopolitical struggles over energy supply, and dramatic environmental changes, the importance of integrated energy is emerging as a key approach for the much-needed worldwide energy transition. Integrated energy connects the energy-related sectors of electricity, heat, cooling, and transport in a way that a greater proportion of renewable energy can be efficiently used, aiming at sustainable energy supply and the alleviation of environmental and health impacts. The integrated energy approach views energy as a dynamic input to promote economic development and energy security, especially in geographic areas usually excluded under traditional energy planning. In this chapter, the authors first present the concept of integrated energy systems including challenges and opportunities. Second, they introduce the perspective of integrated energy in Brazil. Last, they discuss the vital elements, such as the formation of agenda setting and diversity of actors, as a path to design a policy framework for integrated energy systems., isbn: {978-104001674-9, 978-103271542-1}, Pages: 259-282

A model for monitoring agricultural drought (SIMAGRI) has been developed in Brazil. This model is based on gridded precipitation product, real evapotranspiration calculated from vegetation index data (as proposed by [1]), and soil water storage. The soil water storage is derived from the estimation of field capacity and wilting point using pedo-transfer functions (PTFs). The SIMAGRI model suggest that the soil moisture influence is unquestionably a quantitative indicator of drought. In addition, using this model, it is possible to monitor drought episodes in agricultural regions of Brazil, especially over the Northeast, where vulnerability to drought is the highest in the country due to the prevalence of rain fed agricultural practice and frequent droughts

Bioenergy from sugarcane production is considered a key mitigation strategy for global warming. Improving its representation in land surface models is important to further understand the interactions between climate and bioenergy production, supporting accurate climate projections and decision-making. This study aimed to calibrate and evaluate the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for climate impact assessments in sugarcane. A dataset composed of soil moisture, water and carbon fluxes and biomass measurements from field experiments across Brazil was used to calibrate and evaluate JULES-crop and JULES-BE parametrizations. The ability to predict the spatiotemporal variability of sugarcane yields and the impact of climate change was also tested at five Brazilian microregions. Parameters related to sugarcane allometry, crop growth and development were derived and tested for JULES-crop and JULES-BE, together with the response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, temperature and low-water availability (CTW-response). Both parametrizations showed comparable performance to other sugarcane dynamic models, with a root mean squared error of 6.75 and 6.05 t ha−1 for stalk dry matter for JULES-crop and JULES-BE, respectively. The parametrizations were also able to replicate the average yield patterns observed in the five microregions over 30 years when the yield gap factors were taken into account, with the correlation (r) between simulated and observed interannual variability of yields ranging from 0.33 to 0.56. An overall small positive trend was found in future yield projections of sugarcane using the new calibrations, with exception of the Jataí mesoregion which showed a clear negative trend for the SSP5 scenario from the years 2070 to 2100. Our simulations showed that an abrupt negative impact on sugarcane yields is expected if daytime temperatures above 35°C become more frequent. The newly calibrated version of JULES can be applied regionally and globally to help under

Soil moisture information is essential to monitoring of the intensity of droughts, the start of the rainy season, planting dates and early warnings of yield losses. We assess spatial and temporal trends of drought over the Brazilian semiarid region by combining soil moisture observations from 360 stations, root zone soil moisture from a leading land surface model, and a vegetation health index from remote sensing. The soil moisture dataset was obtained from the network of stations maintained by the National Center of Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), in Brazil. Soil water content at 10 to 35 cm depth, for the period 1979–2018, was obtained from running the JULES land surface model (the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator). The modelled soil moisture was correlated with measurements in the common period of 2015–2018, resulting in an average correlation coefficient of 0.48 across the domain. The standardized soil moisture anomaly (SMA) was calculated for the long-term modelled soil moisture and revealed strong negative values during well-known drought periods in the region, especially during El-Niño years. The performance of SMA in identifying droughts during the first 2 months of the raining and cropping season was similar to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), commonly used for drought assessment: 12–14 events were identified by both indices. Finally, the temporal relationship between both SMA and SPI with the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) was assessed using the cross-wavelet transform. The results indicated lagged correlations of 1 to 1.5 months in the annual scale, suggesting that negative trends in SMA and SPI can be an early warning to yield losses during the growing season. Public policies on drought assessment should consider the combination of multiple drought indices, including soil moisture anomaly.