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A comprehensive understanding of the effect of environmental regulation policy synergy on carbon emissions is essential for the design and decision-making of the other policy combinations. In this paper, the panel data from 30 provinces in China during 2000–2019 are used as samples to investigate the heterogeneity of different policy combinations and compare the differences using a Bayesian non-parametric generalized additive quantile method. The research results imply that the environmental regulation policy synergy has a significant heterogeneous effect on carbon emissions on different levels. Specifically, the effect of environmental regulation policy synergy on carbon emissions has an inverted U-shape trend at the low quintiles, i.e., before the turning point, it shows a "green paradox" effect, and after the turning point, it shows an "emission reduction" effect. However, the effect of environmental regulation policy synergy on carbon emissions shows a significant N-shape trend at the high quintiles, i.e., before the second turning point, it shows an "emission reduction" effect, and after the second turning point, it shows a "green paradox" effect. Moreover, the effect of environmental regulation policy combinations on carbon emissions reduction has been found to vary significantly across regions. • Effect of environmental regulation policy synergy on carbon emissions is explored. • The mediating role of industrial structure is considered. • The effect of ERPS on CE has an inverted U-shape trend at the low quintiles, which shows a significant N-shape trend at the high quintiles. • Significant difference in the efficiency for implementation of ERPS in regions with different levels of CE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper used the panel data of various regions in China from 2007 to 2018 and constructs a green economic efficiency measurement index system. Following this, the super-efficient DEA model has been employed to measure the efficiency of China's green economy. Then, the Tobit model is used to verify the environmental regulation influence on efficiency of China's regional green economy extent and direction. The results show that: (1) in 2007–2018, the green economy efficiency level of China's eastern, central and western regions is on the rise, accompanied by more obvious spatial differences. The green economy efficiency basically shows the spatial differentiation characteristics of the highest in the eastern region and the lowest in the western region. (2) From the national perspective, environmental regulation influence on efficiency of green economy presents a "U" shaped curve that promotes and then suppresses. At the eastern and national levels, environmental regulation has the same characteristics for green economy efficiency, and both exhibit U-shaped curve characteristics. Whereas, in the central and western regions shows negative correlation. (3) From the perspective of control variables, there are significant differences in variables at the national and regional levels. Finally, the study concludes with some policy suggestion for future green development and the formulation of environmental regulations in China. • Measuring the Efficiency of China's Green Economy by Using Super Efficiency DEA Model. • Environmental regulations impact on green economy efficiency by the Tobit model. • Environmental regulation impact on green economy efficiency presents "U" process. • Environmental regulation impact on green economy efficiency difference in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For most developing countries, local government faces a trade-off between economic growth and environmental protection. The intentions towards having a better environment as the economy grows will trigger a shift in the priorities of local government from economy to environment at a certain level of economic development. To investigate the "pollute first, control later" path in China and how environmental regulation performs differently due to economic development, this paper develops a conceptual model to depict the nexus between economic growth and environmental improvement. A panel threshold model is estimated based on Chinese data from different spatial scales – 30 provinces and 105 environmental monitoring cities. The results validate the threshold of economic development of approximately CNY 90,000 GDP per capita, which represents the turning point for the local government priority change; such that only when it is exceeded does environmental regulation significantly reduce emissions. Until 2016, only 4 provincial districts and 35 prefecture-level cities have crossed the threshold, these being mostly in the more prosperous eastern coastal areas. The results emphasize the need to consider timeliness when evaluating the effectiveness of environmental regulation and highlight the importance of adopting differentiated governance. Moreover, the need to enhance the effectiveness of environmental regulation requires driving the change of local government's priority to the environment and strengthening the institutional capacity of environmental protection agencies. • A conceptual model of local government's goals of economic growth and environmental protection. • Panel threshold model to find the economic threshold of effective environmental regulation. • Environmental regulation is effective only if regional GDP per capita exceeds CNY 90,000. • Timeliness and differentiation should be considered for environmental governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]