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The authors thank Nof et al. for their comments on the authors' paper 'On the steadiness of separating meandering currents.' The authors' paper was motivated by a series of papers by Nof et al. Under a certain set of conditions (reduced gravity, steady state, no meridional velocity at outflow, and parallel outflow), Nof et al. showed that a separating and retroflecting frictionless current cannot be steady because of a momentum imbalance. The main conclusion of the authors' paper was that they agree with the Nof et al. result that a momentum imbalance exists and extended the proof to all possible configurations of retroflecting currents, even including friction. The authors' results point to a new mechanism for the generation of variability in the ocean that is not related to dynamical instability of the flow. The main claim in the comments is that the authors incorrectly argued in the appendix that the steady-state solutions presented by Nof et al. in several papers fulfill the extra constraint u2 = g′ h. In the original paper, the authors showed that it follows from the geostrophic assumption stated implicitly in all these Nof et al. papers, because the flow is assumed to be parallel. Nof et al. now argue that the flow is only approximately geostrophic in all Nof et al. papers. The authors show in this reply that for steady weakly meandering outflows approximate geostrophy does lead to a momentum imbalance paradox as Nof et al. claim. However, for a steady strongly meandering outflow, approximate geostrophy is not enough and one has to use the method explored by van Leeuwen and De Ruijter to derive a momentum imbalance paradox. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cut cells use regular or nearly regular polygonal cells to describe fields. For a given orography, some cells may be completely under the mountain, some completely above the mountain, and some are partially filled with air. While there are reports indicating considerably improved simulations with cut cells, inaccuracies may arise with some approximations, producing noise in fields near the surface. This behavior may depend strongly on the approximations made for the advection terms near the surface. This paper investigates the accuracy of advection for numerical schemes for a nondivergent flow near a mountain surface. The schemes use C-grid staggering with densities located at cell centers or on the corners of cells. Also, a nonconserving scheme is considered, which was used in the past with real-data cut-cell simulations. Since the cut cells near the surface create an irregular resolution, the accuracy and order of some approximations may break down near the surface. The objective of this paper is to find schemes having the same accuracy for advection near the surface as in the interior of the domain. As a test problem, uniform advection by a nondivergent velocity field is used with a 45° slope mountain (represented as a straight line) on a rectangular grid. Along the surface a sequence of triangular and pentagonal cells of quite different sizes are generated. Some schemes being discussed for cut cells lead to inaccurate and noisy solutions for this perfectly smooth mountain. A scheme using piecewise linear basis functions in a C grid with density points at the cell corners avoids these inaccuracies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adjoint-based observation impact estimation method has been providing essential information to improve data assimilation systems (DASs) in numerical weather prediction (NWP). This paper has two purposes. The first is to verify the four approximations used in the method: iterative construction of the Kalman gain adjoint operator, the tangent linear (TL) approximation of a forecast model, ignoring cross terms of observation impacts, and approximations for incremental DASs. The second is to add new information to our knowledge of observation impacts. For the verification of the adjoint-based method, we use the TL-based observation impact estimation method that can calculate the same quantity as the adjoint-based method without adjoint calculations. Results of these verifications and observation impact estimations performed on the global NWP system of the Japan Meteorological Agency are as follows. First, observation impacts calculated using the adjoint-based method agree well with those from the TL-based method, with the correlation coefficient between them exceeding 0.97. Second, estimated observation impacts are consistent with previous studies in many aspects. There are also system-dependent properties, such as relatively small impacts from GPS radio occultation data above 13 km. Furthermore, new aspects of observation impacts are found: 1) the probability density function of the observation impact agrees well with the scalar theory when giving the experimental value of the observation and the forecast error standard deviations; 2) later observations in the data assimilation window have larger positive impacts; and 3) impacts of AMSU-A in the Southern Hemisphere are more than double those in the Northern Hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several equivalent equations for the evolution of the wave-averaged current momentum have been proposed, implemented, and used. In contrast, the equation for the total momentum, which is the sum of the current and wave momenta, has not been widely used because it requires a less practical wave forcing. In an update on previous derivations, Mellor proposed a new formulation of the wave forcing for the total momentum equation. Here, the authors show that this derivation misses a leading-order term that has a zero depth-integrated value. Corrected for this omission, the wave forcing is equivalent to that in the first paper by Mellor. When this wave forcing effect on the currents is approximated it leads to an inconsistency. This study finally repeats and clarifies that the vertical integration of several various forms of the current-only momentum equations are consistent with the known depth-integrated equations for the mean flow momentum obtained by subtracting the wave momentum equation from the total momentum equation. Several other claims in prior Mellor manuscripts are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Middle and eastern routes of the South-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) of China, which are approximately located within the area 28°-42°N and 110°-122°E, are being constructed. This paper investigates the past climatic variations on various time scales using instrumental and proxy data. It is found that annual mean surface air temperature has increased significantly during the past 50-100 years, and winter and spring temperatures in the northern part of the region have undergone the most significant changes. A much more significant increase occurs for annual mean minimum temperature and extreme low temperature than for annual mean maximum temperature and extreme high temperature. No significant trend in annual precipitation is found for the region as a whole for the last 50 and 100 years, although obvious decadal and spatial variation is detectable. A seesaw pattern of annual and summer precipitation variability between the north and the south of the region is evident. Over the last 100 years, the Haihe River basin has witnessed a significant negative trend of annual precipitation, but no similar trend is detected for the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins. Pan evaporation has significantly decreased since the mid-1960s in the region in spite of the fact that the trend appears to have ended in the early 1990s. The negative trend of pan evaporation is very significant in the plain area between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. There was a notable series of dry intervals lasting decades in the north of the region. The northern drought of the past 30 years is not the most severe in view of the past 500 years; however, the southern drought during the period from the 1960s to the 1980s may have been unprecedented. The dryness-wetness index (DWI) shows significant oscillations with periodicities of 9.5 and 20 years in the south and 10.5 and 25 years in the north. Longer periodicities in the DWI series include 160-170- and 70-80-yr oscillations in the north, and 100-150-yr oscillations in the south. The observed climate change could have implications for the construction and management of the SNWDP. The official approval and start of the hydro project was catalyzed by the severe multiyear drought of 1997-2003 in the north, and the operation and management of the project in the future will also be influenced by climate change-in particular by precipitation variability. This paper provides a preliminary discussion of the potential implications of observed climate change for the SNWDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In simulations of deep convection with cloud-resolving models the turbulence is often rather poorly resolved, and the influence of the subfilter-scale parameterization used in such circumstances is probably greater than in better-resolved simulations. Therefore a study to investigate the influence of stochastic backscatter was performed and presented in two papers. This first paper focuses on a description of the stochastic backscatter model and its effect on a neutral and a dry convective boundary layer. The second paper then deals with two cases of deep convection. The dry convective boundary layer is typical of the subcloud layer in deep convection and this study allows for influences on this layer to be investigated separately. As a simple case of convection it also allows for general effects to be identified. The implementation of stochastic backscatter was improved to ensure an appropriate scale of backscatter that is independent of any mesh refinements and always spatially isotropic. It can also be applied in a deep atmosphere with use of the anelastic approximation. Generally the backscatter is found to affect the velocity and scalar variances as well as the spatial structure and time development of the simulations. An additional issue is the marked influence of both varying resolution and backscatter on the near-surface temperature differences. This is an element of the complex issue of surface transfers under free convection conditions. Overall, the investigations show that the backscatter gives some beneficial changes to the simulations, which tend to keep results in less well- resolved cases closer to those in better-resolved simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tests the hypothesis that optimal perturbations in quasigeostrophic turbulence are excited sufficiently strongly and frequently to account for the energy-containing eddies. Optimal perturbations are defined here as singular vectors of the propagator, for the energy norm, corresponding to the equations of motion linearized about the time-mean flow. The initial conditions are drawn from a numerical solution of the nonlinear equations associated with the linear propagator. Experiments confirm that energy is concentrated in the leading evolved singular vectors, and that the average energy in the initial singular vectors is within an order of magnitude of that required to explain the average energy in the evolved singular vectors. Furthermore, only a small number of evolved singular vectors (4 out of 4000) are needed to explain the dominant eddy structure when total energy exceeds a predefined threshold. The initial singular vectors explain only 10% of such events, but this discrepancy was similar to that of the full propagator, suggesting that it arises primarily due to errors in the propagator. In the limit of short lead times, energy conservation can be expressed in terms of suitable singular vectors to constrain the energy distribution of the singular vectors in statistically steady equilibrium. This and other connections between linear optimals and nonlinear dynamics suggests that the positive results found here should carry over to other systems, provided the propagator and initial states are chosen consistently with respect to the nonlinear system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stability of semi-implicit schemes for the hydrostatic primitive equations system has been studied extensively over the past 20 yr, since this temporal scheme and this system represented a standard for NWP. However, with the increase of computational power, the relaxation of the hydrostatic approximation through the use of nonhydrostatic fully elastic systems is now emerging for future NWP as an attractive solution valid at any scale. In this context, several models employing the so-called Euler equations together with a constant- coefficients semi-implicit time discretization have already been developed, but no solid justification for the suitability of this algorithmic combination has been presented so far, especially from the point of view of robustness. The aim of this paper is to investigate the response of this system/scheme in terms of stability in presence of explicitly treated residual terms, as it inevitably occurs in the reality of NWP. This study is restricted to the impact of thermal and baric residual terms (metric residual terms linked to the orography are not considered here). It is shown that, conversely to what occurs with hydrostatic primitive equations, the choice of the prognostic variables used to solve the system in time is of primary importance for the robustness with Euler equations. For an optimal choice of prognostic variables, unconditionally stable schemes can be obtained (with respect to the length of the time step), but only for a smaller range of reference states than in the case of hydrostatic primitive equations. This study also indicates that (i) vertical coordinates based on geometrical height and on mass behave similarly in terms of stability for the problems examined here, and (ii) hybrid coordinates induce an intrinsic instability, the practical importance of which is, however, not completely elucidated in the theoretical context of this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the validity of the gradient wind balance approximation during the intensification phase of a tropical cyclone in Ooyama's three-layer model. For this purpose, the sensitivity to various model modifications is examined, given by the inclusion of (i) unbalanced dynamics in the free atmosphere, (ii) unbalanced dynamics in the slab boundary layer, (iii) a height-parameterized boundary layer model, and (iv) a rigid lid. The most rapid intensification occurs when the model employs the unbalanced slab boundary layer, while the simulation with the balanced boundary layer reveals the slowest intensification. The simulation with the realistic height-parameterized boundary layer model exhibits an intensification rate that lies in between. Intensification is induced by a convective ring in all experiments, but a distinct contraction of the radius of maximum gradient wind only takes place with unbalanced boundary layer dynamics. In all experiments the rigid lid and the balance approximation for the free atmosphere have no crucial impact on intensification, and a linear stability analysis cannot explain the found sensitivity to intensification. Most likely the nonlinear momentum advection term plays an important role in the boundary layer. It is found on the basis of a diagnostic radial mass flux equation that the source term for latent heat provides the largest contribution to intensification and contraction. Furthermore, it turns out that the position of the convective ring inside or outside of the radius of maximum gradient wind (RMGW) is of vital importance for intensification and most likely explains the large impact of boundary layer imbalance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new data assimilation approach based on the particle filter (PF) that has potential for nonlinear/non-Gaussian applications in geoscience. Particle filters provide a Monte Carlo approximation of a system's probability density, while making no assumptions regarding the underlying error distribution. The proposed method is similar to the PF in that particles-also referred to as ensemble members-are weighted based on the likelihood of observations in order to approximate posterior probabilities of the system state. The new approach, denoted the local PF, extends the particle weights into vector quantities to reduce the influence of distant observations on the weight calculations via a localization function. While the number of particles required for standard PFs scales exponentially with the dimension of the system, the local PF provides accurate results using relatively few particles. In sensitivity experiments performed with a 40-variable dynamical system, the local PF requires only five particles to prevent filter divergence for both dense and sparse observation networks. Comparisons of the local PF and ensemble Kalman filters (EnKFs) reveal advantages of the new method in situations resembling geophysical data assimilation applications. In particular, the new filter demonstrates substantial benefits over EnKFs when observation networks consist of densely spaced measurements that relate nonlinearly to the model state-analogous to remotely sensed data used frequently in weather analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper an equation is derived for the mean backscatter cross section of an ensemble of snowflakes at centimeter and millimeter wavelengths. It uses the Rayleigh-Gans approximation, which has previously been found to be applicable at these wavelengths due to the low density of snow aggregates. Although the internal structure of an individual snowflake is random and unpredictable, the authors find from simulations of the aggregation process that their structure is 'self-similar' and can be described by a power law. This enables an analytic expression to be derived for the backscatter cross section of an ensemble of particles as a function of their maximum dimension in the direction of propagation of the radiation, the volume of ice they contain, a variable describing their mean shape, and two variables describing the shape of the power spectrum. The exponent of the power law is found to be −. In the case of 1-cm snowflakes observed by a 3.2-mm-wavelength radar, the backscatter is 40-100 times larger than that of a homogeneous ice-air spheroid with the same mass, size, and aspect ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents new approximate methods to provide error fields for the spatial analysis tool Data Interpolating Variational Analysis (DIVA). The first method shows how to replace the costly analysis of a large number of covariance functions with a single analysis for quick error computations. Then another method is presented where the error is only calculated in a small number of locations, and from there the spatial error field itself is interpolated by the analysis tool. The efficiency of the methods is illustrated on simple schematic test cases and a real application in the Mediterranean Sea. These examples show that with these methods, one has the possibility for quick masking of regions void of sufficient data and the production of 'exact' error fields at reasonable cost. The error-calculation methods can also be generalized for use with other analysis methods such as three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) and are therefore potentially interesting for other implementations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In meteorological dynamics, the shallow-atmosphere approximation is generally used in the momentum equation, together with the "traditional approximation." In the traditional approximation, two cosine Coriolis terms [hereafter called nontraditional Coriolis terms (NCTs)] and some metric terms are omitted. However, some studies have suggested that the omission of the NCI's may not be appropriate for conditions near the equator. Therefore, this paper investigates the effect of the NCTs on large-scale motions forced by local positive-only heating mimicking cumulus convection. The authors use the linearized quasihydrostatic equation system on an equatorial β plane. Prescribed heating is assumed to move eastward with the slow phase speed of an intraseasonal period. Results of scale analysis and numerical calculations show that differences with and without the NCTs (hereafter, contributions) exhibit the following four features. (i) Whereas contributions to horizontal divergence and vertical velocity are small, the NCTs have large effects on horizontal velocity (vertical vorticity) and perturbations of pressure, potential temperature, and density. (ii) Contributions to horizontal velocity and pressure perturbation have equivalent barotropic structure. (iii) Contributions show east-west asymmetric patterns, with large contributions appearing at the western side of the forcing. (iv) Contributions to vertical vorticity and pressure perturbation are extremely large when the meridional gradient of heating is large. These features can be comprehensively explained by the tilting of the meridional component of the planetary vorticity, which is caused by the meridional gradient of heating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A perturbed physics Hadley Centre climate model ensemble was used to study changes in drought on doubling atmospheric CO2. The drought metrics analyzed were based on 1) precipitation anomalies, 2) soil moisture anomalies, and 3) the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Drought was assumed to occur 17%% of the time under single CO2. On doubling CO2, in general, PDSI drought occurs more often than soil moisture drought, which occurs more often than precipitation drought. This paper explores the relative sensitivity of each drought metric to changes in the main drivers of drought, namely precipitation and available energy. Drought tends to increase when the mean precipitation decreases, the mean available energy increases, the standard deviation of precipitation increases, and the standard deviation of available energy decreases. Simple linear approximations show that the sensitivity of drought to changes in mean precipitation is similar for the three different metrics. However, the sensitivity of drought to changes in the mean available energy (which is projected to increase under increased atmospheric CO2) is highly dependent on metric: with PDSI drought the most sensitive, soil moisture less sensitive, and precipitation independent of available energy. Drought metrics are only slightly sensitive to changes in the variability of the drivers. An additional driver of drought is the response of plants to increased CO2. This process reduces evapotranspiration and increases soil moisture, and generally causes less soil moisture drought. In contrast, the associated increase in available energy generally causes an increase in PDSI drought. These differing sensitivities need to be taken into consideration when developing adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an improvement in the diffraction approximation used to retrieve the size distribution of atmospheric particles from solar aureole radiance measurements. Normalization using total optical thickness based on measurement of the solar disk radiance is replaced with one based on the aureole profile radiance itself. Retrievals involving model calculations for power-law distributions of water droplets show significant improvement using the new algorithm. Tests involving two empirical particle size distributions, one for cirrus and another for aerosols, also show improvement using the new normalization algorithm. Comparisons of the diffraction approximation algorithms with a numerical inversion algorithm found that the accuracy of the latter was higher for two different bimodal aerosol distributions. The role envisioned for the diffraction approximation is in estimating the size distribution of large particles in clouds and especially cirrus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a simple relationship between the slope of particulate optical depth as a function of wavelength and the size distribution of spherical particles. It is based on approximating extinction using a truncated geometric optics relationship and is applicable when optical depth decreases with wavelength. The new relationship suggests that extinction versus wavelength measurements are most sensitive to particles that are comparable in size to the wavelength. When optical depth is expressed as a power-law function of wavelength, the resulting particle size distribution is also a power-law function of size, with the two exponents reproducing the well-known relationship between the ÅÅngströöm and Junge exponents. Examples of applying the new relationship are shown using both numerical calculations based on Mie theory and measurements from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Since the truncated geometric approximation makes no assumptions per se concerning the form of the particle size distribution, it may find application in supplementing solar aureole profile measurements in retrieving the size distributions of particles in thin clouds--for example, cirrus--or when they are present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A linear correlation exists between the retreat latitude of the Loop Current following eddy separation and the subsequent eddy separation period. This empirical relationship was first identified in satellite altimeter-derived Loop Current metrics. In this paper, a simple vorticity model of the Loop Current is used to provide a semitheoretical basis for this relationship. After suitable scaling approximations, the theory predicts that the LC separation period is a linear function of retreat latitude, which agrees well with altimeter-derived empirical results. Specifically, the predicted slope and y intercept agree to within 9%% and 2%%, respectively, with the altimetry-derived values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a theoretical study of the effects of moist convection on geostrophic adjustment in an infinite channel. The governing equations correspond to a linearized shallow water system of equations for the atmosphere first vertical baroclinic mode, which is coupled to a vertically averaged moisture equation. The coupling is through a parameterization that represents precipitation. The transient behavior and final state of the flow initially at rest with active precipitation limited to half of the channel is investigated, both numerically and analytically. It is shown that an initial imbalance resulting from precipitation induces a circulation that dries out the nonprecipitating region and further enhances precipitation. This interaction between precipitation and dynamics leads to a sharper temperature gradient and stronger jet in the final state, when compared to the dry adjustment. Unlike in the dry case, the moist geostrophic adjustment cannot be entirely determined from the initial unbalanced flow, since it depends on the time scale for convection. Analytic approximations are derived in limits of both fast and slow convective adjustment time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are three distinct processes by which upward-propagating gravity waves influence the large-scale dynamics and energetics of the middle atmosphere: (i) nonlocalized transport of momentum through wave propagation in three dimensions that remotely redistributes atmospheric momentum in both zonal and meridional directions from wave generation to wave dissipation regions; (ii) localized diffusive transport of momentum, heat, and tracers due to mixing induced by wave breaking; and (iii) localized transport of heat by perturbing wave structures due to dissipation that redistributes the thermal energy within a finite domain. These effects become most significant for breaking waves when momentum drag, eddy diffusion, and wave heating-- the ''breaking trinity''--are all imposed on the background state. This paper develops a 3D parameterization scheme that self-consistently includes the breaking trinity in large-scale numerical models. The 3D parameterization scheme is developed based on the general relationship between the wave action flux and the subgrid-scale momentum and heat fluxes developed by Zhu in 1987 and a mapping approximation between the wave source spectrum and momentum deposition distribution developed by Alexander and Dunkerton in 1999. For a set of given input wind and temperature profiles at each model grid, the parameterization scheme outputs the vertical profiles of the subgrid-scale force terms together with the eddy diffusion coefficients in the momentum and energy equations for a 3D background flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper error growth is examined using a family of inhomogeneous statistical closure models based on the quasi-diagonal direct interaction approximation (QDIA), and the results are compared with those based on ensembles of direct numerical simulations using bred perturbations. The closure model herein includes contributions from non-Gaussian terms, is realizable, and conserves kinetic energy and enstrophy. Further, unlike previous approximations, such as those based on cumulant-discard (CD) and quasi-normal (QN) hypotheses (Epstein and Fleming), the QDIA closure is stable for long integration times and is valid for both strongly non-Gaussian and strongly inhomogeneous flows. The performance of a number of variants of the closure model, incorporating different approximations to the higher-order cumulants, is examined. The roles of non-Gaussian initial perturbations and small-scale noise in determining error growth are examined. The importance of the cumulative contribution of non-Gaussian terms to the evolved error tendency is demonstrated, as well as the role of the off-diagonal covariances in the growth of errors. Cumulative and instantaneous errors are quantified using kinetic energy spectra and a small-scale palinstrophy production measure, respectively. As a severe test of the methodology herein, synoptic situations during a rapid regime transition associated with the formation of a block over the Gulf of Alaska are considered. In general, the full QDIA closure results compare well with the statistics of direct numerical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the ISV of the convection is an intermittent phenomenon, the local mode analysis (LMA) technique is used to detect only the ensemble of intraseasonal events that are well organized at large scale. The LMA technique is further developed in this paper in order to perform multivariate analysis given patterns of SST and surface wind perturbations associated specifically with these intraseasonal events. During boreal winter, the basin-scale eastward propagation of the convective perturbation is present only over the Indian Ocean Basin. The intraseasonal SST response to convective perturbations is large and recurrent over thin mixed layer regions located north of Australia and in the Indian Ocean between 5° and 10°S. By contrast, there is little SST response in the western Pacific basin and no clear eastward propagation of the convective perturbation. During boreal summer, the SST response is large over regions with thin mixed layers located north of the Bay of Bengal, in the Arabian Sea, and in the China Sea. The northeastward propagation of the convective perturbation over the Bay of Bengal is associated with a standing oscillation of the SST and the surface wind between the equator and the northern part of the bay. In fact, many intraseasonal events mostly concern a single basin, suggesting that the interbasin organization is not a necessary condition for the existence of coupled intraseasonal perturbations of the convection. The perturbation of the surface wind tends to be larger to the west of the large-scale convective perturbation (like for a Gill-type dynamical response). For eastward propagating perturbations, the cooling due to the reinforcement of the wind (i.e., surface turbulent heat flux) thus generally lags the radiative cooling due to the reduction of the surface solar flux by the convective cloudiness. This large-scale Gill-type response of the surface wind also cools the surface to the west of the basin (northwest Arabian Sea and northwest Pacific Ocean), even if the convection is locally weak. An intriguing result is a frequently occurring small delay between the maximum surface wind and the minimum SST. Different explanations are invoked, like a rapid surface cooling due to the vanishing of an ocean warm layer (diurnal surface warming due to solar radiation in low wind conditions) as soon as the wind increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arakawa and Lamb discovered a finite-difference approximation to the shallow-water equations that exactly conserves finite-difference approximations to the energy and potential enstrophy of the fluid. The Arakawa– Lamb algorithm is a stunning and important achievement—stunning, because in the shallow-water case, neither energy nor potential enstrophy is a simple quadratic, and important because the simultaneous conservation of energy and potential enstrophy is known to prevent the spurious cascade of energy to high wavenumbers. However, the method followed byis somewhat ad hoc, and it is difficult to see how it might be generalized to other systems. In this paper, thealgorithm is rederived and greatly generalized in a way that should permit still further generalizations. Beginning with the Hamiltonian formulation of shallow-water dynamics, its two essential ingredients—the Hamiltonian functional and the Poisson-bracket operator—are replaced by finite-difference approximations that maintain the desired conservation laws. Energy conservation is maintained if the discrete Poisson bracket retains the antisymmetry property of the exact bracket, a trivial constraint. Potential enstrophy is conserved if a set of otherwise arbitrary coefficients is chosen in such a way that a very large quadratic form contains only diagonal terms. Using a symbolic manipulation program to satisfy the potential-enstrophy constraint, it is found that the energy- and potential-enstrophy-conserving schemes corresponding to a stencil of 25 grid points contain 22 free parameters. Thescheme corresponds to the vanishing of all free parameters. No parameter setting can increase the overall accuracy of the schemes beyond second order, but 19 of the free parameters may be independently adjusted to yield a scheme with fourth-order accuracy in the vorticity equation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing need for ocean circulation models that conserve mass rather than volume (as in traditional Boussinesq models). One reason is bottom pressure data expected to flow from satellite-mounted gravity-measuring instruments, and another is to provide a complete interpretation of data from satellite altimeters such as TOPEX/Poseidon. In this paper, it is shown that existing, hydrostatic Boussinesq ocean model codes can easily be modified, with only a modest increase in the CPU requirement, to integrate the hydrostatic, non-Boussinesq equations. The method can be used to integrate both coarse-resolution and eddy-resolving non-Boussinesq models. The basic equations can also be used to formulate a fully nonhydrostatic, non-Boussinesq model. The method is illustrated for the case of the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the parallel version of the Bryan–Cox–Semtner code developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. A comparison of eddy-permitting model solutions under double-gyre wind forcing shows that the error in making the Boussinesq approximation is, reassuringly, only a few percent. The authors also consider a coarse-resolution global ocean model under seasonal forcing. The non-Boussinesq model shows a seasonal variation in global mean sea surface height (SSH) with a range of about 3 cm, attributable mostly to changes in the mass of the ocean due to the freshwater flux forcing, but with a roughly 25% contribution from the steric expansion effect. The seasonal cycles of model-computed SSH are also compared with TOPEX/Poseidon data from the South Pacific and South Atlantic Oceans. It is shown that the seasonal cycle in global mean SSH contributes to the model-computed seasonal cycle, and improves the model performance compared to the data. It is found that the difference between the seasonal cycles in the Boussinesq and non-Boussinesq models is almost entirely accounted for by the seasonal cycle in global mean SSH. On the other hand, on ... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Particle filtering methods for data assimilation may suffer from the 'curse of dimensionality,' where the required ensemble size grows rapidly as the dimension increases. It would, therefore, be useful to know a priori whether a particle filter is feasible to implement in a given system. Previous work provides an asymptotic relation between the necessary ensemble size and an exponential function of , a statistic that depends on observation-space quantities and that is related to the system dimension when the number of observations is large; for linear, Gaussian systems, the statistic can be computed from eigenvalues of an appropriately normalized covariance matrix. Tests with a low-dimensional system show that these asymptotic results remain useful when the system is nonlinear, with either the standard or optimal proposal implementation of the particle filter. This study explores approximations to the covariance matrices that facilitate computation in high-dimensional systems, as well as different methods to estimate the accumulated system noise covariance for the optimal proposal. Since may be approximated using an ensemble from a simpler data assimilation scheme, such as the ensemble Kalman filter, the asymptotic relations thus allow an estimate of the ensemble size required for a particle filter before its implementation. Finally, the improved performance of particle filters with the optimal proposal, relative to those using the standard proposal, in the same low-dimensional system is demonstrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensemble-variational data assimilation algorithms that can incorporate the time dimension (four-dimensional or 4D) and combine static and ensemble-derived background error covariances (hybrid) are formulated in general forms based on the extended control variable and the observation-space-perturbation approaches. The properties and relationships of these algorithms and their approximated formulations are discussed. The main algorithms discussed include the following: 1) the standard ensemble 4DVar (En4DVar) algorithm incorporating ensemble-derived background error covariance through the extended control variable approach, 2) the 4DEnVar neglecting the time propagation of the extended control variable (4DEnVar-NPC), 3) the 4D ensemble-variational algorithm based on observation space perturbation (4DEnVar), and 4) the 4DEnVar with no propagation of covariance localization (4DEnVar-NPL). Without the static background error covariance term, none of the algorithms requires the adjoint model except for En4DVar. Costly applications of the tangent linear model to localized ensemble perturbations can be avoided by making the NPC and NPL approximations. It is proven that En4DVar and 4DEnVar are mathematically equivalent, while 4DEnVar-NPC and 4DEnVar-NPL are mathematically equivalent. Such equivalences are also demonstrated by single-observation assimilation experiments with a 1D linear advection model. The effects of the non-flow-following or stationary localization approximations are also examined through the experiments. All of the above algorithms can include the static background error covariance term to establish a hybrid formulation. When the static term is included, all algorithms will require a tangent linear model and an adjoint model. The first guess at appropriate time (FGAT) approximation is proposed to avoid the tangent linear and adjoint models. Computational costs of the algorithms are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the proposed mechanisms for energy loss in the ocean is through dissipation of internal waves, in particular above rough topography where internal lee waves are generated. Rates of dissipation and diapycnal mixing are often estimated using linear internal wave generation theory and a constant value for mixing efficiency. However, previous oceanographic measurements found that nonlinear dynamics may be important close to topography. To investigate the role of nonlinear interactions, we conduct idealized 3D direct numerical simulations (DNS) of steady flow over 1D topography and vary the topographic height, which correlates to the degree of flow nonlinearity. We analyze the spatial distribution of energy transfer rates between internal waves and the nongeostrophic portion of the time-mean flow, and of dissipation and diapycnal mixing rates. In our simulations with taller, more nonlinear topographies, energy transfer rates are similar to previously unexplained oceanographic observations near topography: internal waves gain energy from time-mean flow through horizontal straining and lose energy through vertical shearing. In the tall topography simulations, buoyancy fluxes also play a significant role, consistent with observations but contrary to linear wave theory, suggesting that quasigeostrophy-based approximations and linear theory may not hold in some regions above rough topography. Both dissipation and mixing rates increase with topographic height, but their vertical distributions differ between topographic regimes. As such, the vertical profile of mixing efficiency is different for linear and nonlinear topographic regimes, which may need to be incorporated into parameterizations of small-scale processes in models and estimates of ocean energy loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A perturbed physics Hadley Centre climate model ensemble was used to study changes in drought on doubling atmospheric CO2. The drought metrics analyzed were based on 1) precipitation anomalies, 2) soil moisture anomalies, and 3) the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Drought was assumed to occur 17%% of the time under single CO2. On doubling CO2, in general, PDSI drought occurs more often than soil moisture drought, which occurs more often than precipitation drought. This paper explores the relative sensitivity of each drought metric to changes in the main drivers of drought, namely precipitation and available energy. Drought tends to increase when the mean precipitation decreases, the mean available energy increases, the standard deviation of precipitation increases, and the standard deviation of available energy decreases. Simple linear approximations show that the sensitivity of drought to changes in mean precipitation is similar for the three different metrics. However, the sensitivity of drought to changes in the mean available energy (which is projected to increase under increased atmospheric CO2) is highly dependent on metric: with PDSI drought the most sensitive, soil moisture less sensitive, and precipitation independent of available energy. Drought metrics are only slightly sensitive to changes in the variability of the drivers. An additional driver of drought is the response of plants to increased CO2. This process reduces evapotranspiration and increases soil moisture, and generally causes less soil moisture drought. In contrast, the associated increase in available energy generally causes an increase in PDSI drought. These differing sensitivities need to be taken into consideration when developing adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wave breaking events in a continuous spectrum of surface gravity waves are investigated numerically in 2D within a framework of the potential motion model. It is claimed that the major physical mechanism leading to wave breaking is ''squeezing'' of relatively short waves by the surface currents due to longer waves (the ''concertina'' effect), which causes the shorter waves to steepen and become unstable. It is demonstrated that locations of the breaking events are well correlated with the maximum of local current convergence, although slightly worse correlation of the locations with the local steepness of undulating surface cannot reliably exclude the latter mechanism either. It is found also that the breaking events are very rare for random surfaces with a root-mean-square (RMS) current gradient below a threshold value of about 1 s−−1. The process of wave breaking was investigated by two numerical codes. One of them is based on approximation of continuous media with a discrete Hamiltonian system, which can be integrated in time very efficiently and accurately but is limited to single-valued profiles. The other is the Laplacian approach, which can explicitly exhibit the overturning of plunging breakers. Study of the discrete system shows that wave breaking is associated with the explosive growth of a certain spatially localized mode of the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subsurface ocean currents can be estimated from the positions of drifting profiling floats that are being widely deployed for the international Argo program. The calculation of subsurface velocity depends on how the trajectory of the float while on the surface is treated. The following three aspects of the calculation of drift velocities are addressed: the accurate determination of surfacing and dive times, a new method for extrapolating surface and dive positions from the set of discrete Argos position fixes, and a discussion of the errors in the method. In the new method described herein, the mean drift velocity and the phase and amplitude of inertial motions are derived explicitly from a least squares fit to the set of Argos position fixes for each surface cycle separately. The new method differs from previous methods that include prior assumptions about the statistics of inertial motions. It is concluded that the endpoints of the subsurface trajectory can be estimated with accuracy better than 1.7 km (East Sea/Sea of Japan) and 0.8 km (Indian Ocean). All errors, combined with the error that results from geostrophic shear and extrapolation, should result in individual subsurface velocity estimates with uncertainty of the order of 0.2 cm s-1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A method for the extrapolation of vertical profiles of temperature (and/or steric heights) from measurements of sea surface elevation and sea surface temperature has been developed and is described here. The technique, called coupled pattern reconstruction (CPR), is based on a multivariate analysis of the coupled variability of vertical profiles from historical hydrographic data and on the hypothesis that only few modes are needed to explain most of the covariance of the fields. Through a linear regression between the amplitudes of the coupled modes it is possible to reconstruct the first two modes by solving a simple linear system written for the surface values, which are supposed to be known. The CPR method has been applied and tested on 9 yr of conductivity– temperature–depth (CTD) measurements collected in the northern Mediterranean Sea during the Dynamiques des Flux de Matière en Mediterranée (DYFAMED) program (1994–2002). The first 6 yr were used as a training dataset, while the last 3 were set aside as independent test measurements. Results have demonstrated a substantial improvement in terms of absolute error with respect to an ad hoc climatology, and slightly worse performances compared to the most advanced technique found in literature, which consists of the single empirical orthogonal function reconstruction (sEOF-R) through a multivariate regression of the amplitudes, except for the very first meters. However, CPR is demonstrated to be much more robust and better performing with respect to sEOF-R when considering the errors associated with real measurements of sea surface elevation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative roles of buoy and Argo observations in two sea surface temperature (SST) analyses are studied in the global ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean over 2000–16 using monthly Extended Reconstructed SST version 5 (ERSSTv5) and Daily Optimum Interpolation SST version 2 (DOISST). Experiments show an overall higher impact by buoys than Argo floats over the global oceans and an increasing impact by Argo floats. The impact by Argo floats is generally larger in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. The impact on trends and anomalies of globally averaged SST by either one is small when the other is used. The warming trend over 2000–16 remains significant by including either buoys or Argo floats or both. In the tropical Pacific, the impact by buoys was large over 2000–05 when the number of Argo floats was low, and became smaller over 2010–16 when the number and area coverage of Argo floats increased. The magnitude of El Niño and La Niña events decreases when the observations from buoys, Argo floats, or both are excluded. The impact by the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) and Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TRITON) is small in normal years and during El Niño events. The impact by TAO/TRITON buoys on La Niña events is small when Argo floats are included in the analysis systems, and large when Argo floats are not included. The reason for the different impact on El Niño and La Niña events is that the drifting buoys are more dispersed from the equatorial Pacific region by stronger trade winds during La Niña events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A framework for conceptual understanding of slow, convectively coupled disturbances is developed and applied to several canonical tropical problems, including the water vapor content of an atmosphere in radiative–convective equilibrium, the relationship between convective precipitation and column water vapor, Walker-like circulations, self-aggregation of convection, and the Madden–Julian oscillation. The framework is a synthesis of previous work that developed four key approximations: boundary layer energy quasi equilibrium, conservation of free-tropospheric moist and dry static energies, and the weak temperature gradient approximation. It is demonstrated that essential features of slow, convectively coupled processes can be understood without reference to complex turbulent and microphysical processes, even though accounting for such complexity is essential to quantitatively accurate modeling. In particular, we demonstrate that the robust relationship between column water vapor and precipitation observed over tropical oceans does not necessarily imply direct sensitivity of convection to free-tropospheric moisture. We also show that to destabilize the radiative–convective equilibrium state, feedbacks between radiation and clouds and water vapor must be sufficiently strong relative to the gross moist stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Which of two competing continuous forecasts is better? This question is often asked in forecast verification, as well as climate model evaluation. Traditional statistical tests seem to be well suited to the task of providing an answer. However, most such tests do not account for some of the special underlying circumstances that are prevalent in this domain. For example, model output is seldom independent in time, and the models being compared are geared to predicting the same state of the atmosphere, and thus they could be contemporaneously correlated with each other. These types of violations of the assumptions of independence required for most statistical tests can greatly impact the accuracy and power of these tests. Here, this effect is examined on simulated series for many common testing procedures, including two-sample and paired t and normal approximation z tests, the z test with a first-order variance inflation factor applied, and the newer Hering-Genton (HG) test, as well as several bootstrap methods. While it is known how most of these tests will behave in the face of temporal dependence, it is less clear how contemporaneous correlation will affect them. Moreover, it is worthwhile knowing just how badly the tests can fail so that if they are applied, reasonable conclusions can be drawn. It is found that the HG test is the most robust to both temporal dependence and contemporaneous correlation, as well as the specific type and strength of temporal dependence. Bootstrap procedures that account for temporal dependence stand up well to contemporaneous correlation and temporal dependence, but require large sample sizes to be accurate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visible satellite images contain high-resolution information about clouds that would be well suited for convective-scale data assimilation. This application requires a forward operator to generate synthetic images from the output of numerical weather prediction models. Only recently have 1D radiative transfer (RT) solvers become sufficiently fast for this purpose. Here computationally efficient methods are proposed to increase the accuracy and consistency of an operator based on the Method for Fast Satellite Image Synthesis (MFASIS) 1D RT. Two important problems are addressed: the 3D RT effects related to inclined cloud tops and the overlap of subgrid clouds. It is demonstrated that in a rotated frame of reference, an approximate solution for the 3D RT problem can be obtained by solving a computationally much cheaper 1D RT problem. Several deterministic and stochastic schemes that take the overlap of subgrid clouds into account are discussed. The impact of the inclination correction and the overlap schemes is evaluated for synthetic 0.6-mm SEVIRI images computed from operational forecasts of the German-focusedCOSMO(COSMO-DE) Model for a test period in May-June 2016. The cloud-top inclination correction increases the information content of the synthetic images considerably and reduces systematic errors, in particular for larger solar zenith angles. Taking subgrid cloud overlap into account is essential to avoid large systematic errors. The results obtained using several different 2D cloud overlap schemes are very similar, whereas small but significant differences are found for the most consistent 3D method, which accounts for the fact that the RT problem is solved for columns tilted toward the satellite. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The drift of temperature measurements by semiconductor negative temperature coefficient thermistors is a well-known problem. This study analyzes the drift characteristics of the thermistors designed and used at the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research for measuring high-frequency temperature fluctuations in the ocean. These thermistors can be calibrated to high precision and accuracy (better than 1 mK) and have very low noise levels. The thermistors can measure independently for long periods of time (more than one year), and the identification and compensation of the drift are thus essential processing steps. A laboratory analysis showing that the drift is similar, in its functional form, to the drift of commercial thermistors described in the literature is presented. An effective procedure to estimate this drift from ocean observations is described and tested using three datasets from the deep Atlantic Ocean. Since the functional form of the drift rate is, with good approximation, universal among different sensors, the procedure could easily be adapted to other datasets and, the authors argue, to measurements from thermistors by other manufacturers too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comparison between anelastic and compressible convection-permitting weather forecasts for the Alpine region is presented. This involves mesoscale simulation of a typical westerly flow accompanied by a passage of frontal systems as well as intense airmass convection and orographic convection. The limited-area model employing a 2.2-km horizontal grid length is driven by time-dependent boundary conditions from a coarse-resolution model. The results obtained with the anelastic and the compressible model versions show good agreement. Validations of the 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, 2-m dewpoint temperature, total cloud cover, and surface precipitation against observations for a seven-member forecast ensemble reveal only minor differences between the two configurations. The sensitivity study demonstrates only a small impact of realistic pressure perturbations (about a reference profile) on the solutions. Overall, anelastic approximation proves remarkably accurate in simulating moist mesoscale dynamics. The study has been conducted using a newly developed hybrid limited-area nonhydrostatic version of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) model. This version facilitates the use of two alternative dynamical cores: compressible (original) and anelastic (new). The new dynamical core, which is based on the Euler-Lagrangian (EULAG) solver, aims at integrating atmospheric flow equations at resolutions higher than O(1) km for steep orography. A coupler has been developed to merge the EULAG dynamical core with the COSMO numerical weather prediction framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work assesses the large-scale applicability of the recently proposed nonlinear ensemble transform filter (NETF) in data assimilation experiments with the NEMO ocean general circulation model. The new filter constitutes a second-order exact approximation to fully nonlinear particle filtering. Thus, it relaxes the Gaussian assumption contained in ensemble Kalman filters. The NETF applies an update step similar to the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), which allows for efficient and simple implementation. Here, simulated observations are assimilated into a simplified ocean configuration that exhibits globally high-dimensional dynamics with a chaotic mesoscale flow. The model climatology is used to initialize an ensemble of 120 members. The number of observations in each local filter update is of the same order resulting from the use of a realistic oceanic observation scenario. Here, an importance sampling particle filter (PF) would require at least 106 members. Despite the relatively small ensemble size, the NETF remains stable and converges to the truth. In this setup, the NETF achieves at least the performance of the LETKF. However, it requires a longer spinup period because the algorithm only relies on the particle weights at the analysis time. These findings show that the NETF can successfully deal with a large-scale assimilation problem in which the local observation dimension is of the same order as the ensemble size. Thus, the second-order exact NETF does not suffer from the PF's curse of dimensionality, even in a deterministic system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data being detected by the China Lightning Detection Network between 2010 and 2013 are employed to gain insight into the spatial and temporal distribution of CG lightning in China. There are clear interannual and seasonal variations of CG lightning activity. The mean total CG and positive CG (PCG) flashes in 2010-13 are approximately 6.44 million and 0.42 million, respectively, and the mean percentage of PCG (PPCG) is 6.6%. CG and PCG flashes predominately occur during summer, with August being the peak month for CG and June for PCG. PPCG in the cold season is considerably greater than in the warm season; its maximum of 56.2% is in January and the minimum value of 4.0% is found in August. The centers of maximum mean annual CG density are scattered throughout southern China, the Sichuan basin, and the south of Jiangsu Province. The CG density in the high elevations and arid regions of western China is less than that in the low elevations and coastal regions of southeastern China. In addition, daily CG density and CG lightning days in southeastern China are greater than in northwestern China, but PPCG in western China is apparently greater than that in eastern China. Areas experiencing more than 30 CG lightning days per year are primarily south of 30°N, with 10-30 lightning days per year in northern and northeastern China, and approximately 10-20 lightning days per year over the central Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The day-night band (DNB) low-light-level visible sensor, mounted on the Suomi-National Polar-Orbiting Partnership ( SNPP) satellite, can measure visible radiances from the earth and atmosphere (solar/lunar reflection, and natural/anthropogenic nighttime light emissions) during both day and night and can achieve unprecedented nighttime low-light-level imaging with its accurate radiometric calibration and fine spatiotemporal resolution. Based on the good characteristics of DNB, a multichannel threshold (MCT) algorithm combining DNB with other Visible-Infrared Imager-Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) channels is proposed to monitor nighttime fog/low stratus. Through a gradual separation of the underlying surface (land, vegetation, water bodies, and city lights), snow, and high/medium clouds, a fog/low-stratus region can ultimately be extracted by the algorithm. Then, the algorithmic feasibility is verified by three typical cases of heavy fog/low stratus in China. The experimental results demonstrate that the outcomes of the MCT algorithm approximately coincide with the ground-measured results. Furthermore, the MCT algorithm shows promise for nighttime fog/low-stratus detection in some example cases with about a 0.84 average probability of detection (POD), a 0.73 average critical success index (CSI), and a 0.15 average false alarm ratio (FAR), which reveals some improvement over the conventional dual-channel difference (DCD) algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many issues may challenge standard interpolation techniques to produce high-resolution gridded maps of sea surface height in the context of future missions like Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT). The present study proposes a new method to address these challenges. Based on the conservation of potential vorticity, the method provides a simple dynamic approach to interpolation through temporal gaps between high spatial resolution observations. For gaps shorter than 20 days, the dynamic interpolation is extremely efficient and allows for the reconstruction of the time evolution of small mesoscale eddies (below 100 km) that would be smoothed out by conventional methods based on optimal mapping. Such a simple approach offers some perspectives for developing high-level products from high-resolution altimetry data in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of modulated point vortex pairs is investigated on a rotating sphere, where modulation is chosen to reflect the conservation of angular momentum (potential vorticity). In this setting the authors point out a qualitative difference between the full spherical dynamics and the one obtained in a β-plane approximation. In particular, dipole trajectories starting at the same location evolve to completely different directions under these two treatments, despite the fact that the deviations from the initial latitude remain small. This is a strong indication for the mathematical inconsistency of the traditional β-plane approximation. At the same time, a consistently linearized set of equations of motion leads to trajectories agreeing with those obtained under the full spherical treatment. The β-plane advection patterns due to chaotic advection in the velocity field of finite-sized vortex pairs are also found to considerably deviate from those of the full spherical treatment, and quantities characterizing transport properties (e.g., the escape rate from a given region) strongly differ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The equations of motion are reexamined with the objective of improving upon the Boussinesq approximation. The authors derive new equations that conserve energy, filter out sound waves, are more accurate than the Boussinesq set, and are computationally competitive with them. The new equations are partly enabled by exploiting a reversible exchange between internal and gravitational potential fluid energy. To improve upon these equations appears to require the inclusion of acoustics, at which point one should use full Navier-Stokes. This study recommends the new sets for testing in general circulation modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that vertical wind shear can organize deep convective systems and greatly extend their lifetimes. Much less is known about the influence of shear on the bulk properties of tropical convection in statistical equilibrium. To address the latter question, the authors present a series of cloud-resolving simulations on a doubly periodic domain with parameterized large-scale dynamics based on the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation. The horizontal-mean horizontal wind is relaxed strongly in these simulations toward a simple unidirectional linear vertical shear profile in the troposphere. The strength and depth of the shear layer are varied as control parameters. Surface enthalpy fluxes are prescribed. The results fall in two distinct regimes. For weak wind shear, time-averaged rainfall decreases with shear and convection remains disorganized. For larger wind shear, rainfall increases with shear, as convection becomes organized into linear mesoscale systems. This nonmonotonic dependence of rainfall on shear is observed when the imposed surface fluxes are moderate. For larger surface fluxes, convection in the unsheared basic state is already strongly organized, but increasing wind shear still leads to increasing rainfall. In addition to surface rainfall, the impacts of shear on the parameterized large-scale vertical velocity, convective mass fluxes, cloud fraction, and momentum transport are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmospheric circulation response to the global warming-like tropical upper tropospheric heating is revisited using a dry atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) in light of new diagnostics based on the concept of finite-amplitude wave activity (FAWA) on equivalent latitude. For a given tropical heating profile, the linear Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) wave refraction analysis sometimes gives a very different and even opposite prediction of the eddy momentum flux response to that of the actual full model simulation, exposing the limitation of the traditional linear approach in understanding the full dynamics of the atmospheric response under global warming. The implementation of the FAWA diagnostics reveals that in response to the upper tropospheric heating, effective diffusivity-a measure of the mixing efficiency-increases and advances upward and poleward in the subtropics and the resultant enhancement and the poleward encroachment of eddy potential vorticity mixing leads to a poleward displaced potential vorticity (PV) gradient peak in the upper troposphere. The anomalous eddy PV flux, in balance with the PV dissipation, gives rise to a poleward shift in the eddy-driven jet and eddy-driven mean meridional circulation. Sensitivity experiments show that these irreversible dissipation processes in the upper troposphere are robust, regardless of the width of the tropical heating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An alias-robust least squares method that produces less errors than established methods is developed to produce reference radial velocities for automatically correcting raw aliased Doppler velocities scanned from hurricanes. This method estimates the maximum tangential velocity V M and its radial distance R M from the hurricane vortex center by fitting a parametric vortex model directly to raw aliased velocities at and around each selected vertical level. In this method, aliasing-caused zigzag discontinuities in the relationship between the observed and true radial velocities are formulated into the cost function by applying an alias operator to the entire analysis-minus-observation term to ensure the cost function to be smooth and concave around the global minimum. Simulated radar velocity observations are used to examine the cost function geometry around the global minimum in the space of control parameters ( V M, R M). The results show that the global minimum point can estimate the true ( V M, R M) approximately if the hurricane vortex center location is approximately known and the hurricane core and vicinity areas are adequately covered by the radar scans, and the global minimum can be found accurately by an efficient descent algorithm as long as the initial guess is in the concave vicinity of the global minimum. The method is used with elaborated refinements for automated dealiasing, and this utility is highlighted by an example applied to severely aliased radial velocities scanned from a hurricane. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air-sea coupling in the IntraAmerican seas (IAS; Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) is studied through analyses of observational data from satellite, reanalysis products, and in situ measurements. A strong coupling is found between the easterly trade wind - U and meridional SST gradient ∂T/∂y across a localized region of the southern-central Caribbean Sea from seasonal and interannual to decadal time scales. The ∂T/∂y anomaly is caused by a variation in the strength of coastal upwelling off the Venezuelan coast by the wind, which in turn strengthens (weakens) for stronger (weaker) ∂T/∂y. Wind speeds and seasonal fluctuations in IAS have increased in the past two decades with a transition near 1994 coinciding approximately with when the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) turned from cold to warm phases. In particular, the seasonal swing from summer's strong to fall's weak trade wind has become larger. The ocean's upper-layer depth has also deepened, by as much as 50% on average in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. These conditions favor the shedding of eddies from the Loop Current, making it more likely to shed at a biannual frequency, as has been observed from altimetry data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamical core of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP AGCM) and the Eulerian spectral transform dynamical core of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1 (CAM3.1), developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are used to study the sensitivity of simulated climate. The authors report that when the dynamical cores are used with the same CAM3.1 physical parameterizations of comparable resolutions, the model with the IAP dynamical core simulated a colder troposphere than that from the CAM3.1 core, reducing the CAM3.1 warm bias in the tropical and midlatitude troposphere. However, when the two dynamical cores are used in the idealized Held-Suarez tests without moisture physics, the IAP AGCM core simulated a warmer troposphere than that in CAM3.1. The causes of the differences in the full models and in the dry models are then investigated. The authors show that the IAP dynamical core simulated weaker eddies in both the full physics and the dry models than those in the CAM due to different numerical approximations. In the dry IAP model, the weaker eddies cause smaller heat loss from poleward dynamical transport and thus warmer troposphere in the tropics and midlatitudes. When moist physics is included, however, weaker eddies also lead to weaker transport of water vapor and reduction of high clouds in the IAP model, which then causes a colder troposphere due to reduced greenhouse warming of these clouds. These results show how interactive physical processes can change the effect of a dynamical core on climate simulations between two models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method is used to explore the optimal precursors that trigger the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) anomaly pattern with a triangular T21, three-level, quasi-geostrophic global spectral model based on a viewpoint that the NAO is a nonlinear initial-value problem. With a three-dimensional winter climatological flow as the basic state, initially baroclinic localized optimal precursors on the northward flanks of the climatological Atlantic jet undergo wave breaking during their evolution into the NAO-like anomalies. Accompanied with the formation of the NAO, the north-south variability of the zonal mean westerly anomaly has arisen. Analysis reveals that in the evolution of optimal precursors, the role played by the self-interaction of perturbations (viz., the nonlinear process) in the onset of the negative-phase NAO (NAO−) event is stronger than that in the onset of the positive-phase NAO (NAO+) event. Both the perturbation/basic-state interaction and self-interaction of perturbations determine whether the NAO− event occurs, whereas the nonlinearity process in the NAO+ onset only appears to modulate the structure of the perturbation to have a dipole mode over the North Atlantic at the optimization time, and meanwhile cause this dipole mode to become zonally extended. That is to say, the nonlinear process indeed plays an important role during the onset of an NAO event and the CNOP method is a useful tool to identify the dynamics of the onset of NAO teleconnection patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To extend the numerical stability limit over steep slopes, a truly horizontal pressure-gradient discretization based on the ideas formulated by Mahrer in the 1980's has been developed. Conventionally, the pressure gradient is evaluated in the terrain-following coordinate system, which necessitates a metric correction term that is prone to numerical instability if the height difference between adjacent grid points is much larger than the vertical layer spacing. The alternative way pursued here is to reconstruct the pressure gradient at auxiliary points lying at the same height as the target point on which the velocity is defined. This is accomplished via a second-order Taylor-series expansion in this work, using the hydrostatic approximation to transform the second derivatives into first derivatives to facilitate second-order accurate discretization in the presence of strong vertical grid stretching. Moreover, a reformulated lower boundary condition is used that avoids the extrapolation of vertical derivatives evaluated in potentially very thin layers. A sequence of tests at varying degree of idealization reveals that the truly horizontal pressure-gradient discretization improves numerical stability over steep slopes for a wide range of horizontal mesh sizes, ranging from a few hundreds of meters to tens of kilometers. In addition, tests initialized with an atmosphere at rest reveal that the spurious circulations developing over steep mountains are usually smaller than for the conventional discretization even in configurations for which the latter does not suffer from stability problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A weak pressure gradient (WPG) approximation is introduced for parameterizing supradomain-scale (SDS) dynamics, and this method is compared to the relaxed form of the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation in the context of 3D, linearized, damped, Boussinesq equations. It is found that neither method is able to capture the two different time scales present in the full 3D equations. Nevertheless, WPG is argued to have several advantages over WTG. First, WPG correctly predicts the magnitude of the steady-state buoyancy anomalies generated by an applied heating, but WTG underestimates these buoyancy anomalies. It is conjectured that this underestimation may short-circuit the natural feedbacks between convective mass fluxes and local temperature anomalies. Second, WPG correctly predicts the adiabatic lifting of air below an initial buoyancy perturbation; WTG is unable to capture this nonlocal effect. It is hypothesized that this may be relevant to moist convection, where adiabatic lifting can reduce convective inhibition. Third, WPG agrees with the full 3D equations on the counterintuitive fact that an isolated heating applied to a column of Boussinesq fluid leads to a steady ascent with zero column-integrated buoyancy. This falsifies the premise of the relaxed form of WTG, which assumes that vertical velocity is proportional to buoyancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]