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Time indices of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) are often used to generate empirical forecasts of the global atmospheric circulation. Moist deep convection associated with the MJO initiates eastward-propagating Rossby waves that disperse into the midlatitudes. The background circulation then guides extratropical waves back into the tropics of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Previous works have shown that equatorial Rossby (ER) waves occur following intrusion of extratropical Rossby waves into the tropics. Westward-propagating ER waves and the MJO modulate the total convection. This convection modulates the zonal wind, which influences the location and existence of westerly wind ducts. These wind ducts, in turn, guide extratropical waves into the tropics. This paper demonstrates through a simple composite analysis that a simultaneous assessment of MJO and ER waves yields more information about the extratropical circulation during boreal winter than can be obtained based on either type of disturbance alone, or from a sum of the signals associated with the MJO and ER waves composited separately. This analysis, together with previous results, suggests a feedback loop between the MJO, these waves, and the extratropical circulation. Thus, assessment of the ER wave state during a particular phase of the MJO might yield better empirical prediction of the global atmospheric circulation that follows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, the evolution and prediction of the persistent and remarkable warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the northeastern Pacific during October 2013-June 2016 are examined. Based on experiments with an atmospheric model, the possible contribution of SSTAs in different ocean basins to the atmospheric circulation anomalies is identified. Further, through verifying the real-time forecasts, current capabilities in predicting such an extreme warm event with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model are assessed. During the long-lasting warm event, there were two warm maxima in the area-averaged SSTA around January 2014 and July 2015, respectively. The warm anomaly originated at the oceanic surface and propagated downward and reached about 300 m. Model experiments forced by observed SST suggest that the long persistence of the atmospheric anomalies in the northeastern Pacific as a whole may be partially explained by SST forcing, particularly in the tropical Pacific Ocean associated with a persistent warm SSTA in 2014/15 and an extremely strong El Nino in 2015/16, via its influence on atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific. Nevertheless, it was a challenge to predict the evolution of this warm event, especially for its growth. That is consistent with the fact that the SSTAs in extratropical oceans are largely a consequence of unpredictable atmospheric variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The observed structure and seasonal evolution characteristics of the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) in the warm ocean areas of the Indo-Pacific region are explored using a seasonal-sequence EOF analysis approach. The major convective activity centers associated with the TBO appear in the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) and western North Pacific (WNP), accompanied by anticyclonic (or cyclonic) circulation patterns with a first-baroclinic-mode structure. The convection and circulation anomalies have distinctive life cycles in the SEIO and WNP: the former have a peak phase in northern fall and the latter persist from northern winter to subsequent summer. The mechanisms of the TBO in this region are investigated with a hybrid coupled GCM. Numerical results show that air–sea interaction in the warm ocean alone can support TBO variability that has many observed characteristics. Key processes involved in the TBO include the WNP monsoon variability and associated cross-equatorial flows, convective activity over Southeast Asia/the Maritime Continent and associated anomalous Walker circulation, and ocean dynamic responses to anomalous wind stress curl in the western Pacific. The coupled model experiment demonstrates that the essential element of the TBO in this region arises from the monsoon–warm ocean interaction. A possible connection between the TBO and ENSO variability is further studied in another model that excludes the delayed oscillator dynamics. The key in causing the biennial variability of ENSO arises from teleconnections between the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, with three “atmospheric bridges”: 1) the north–south teleconnection that connects the WNP monsoon and the SEIO, 2) the east–west teleconnection that connects the Indian Ocean and the Pacific cold tongue, and 3) the El Niño–WNP monsoon teleconnection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]