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This paper presents observational evidence of the atmospheric circulation during the Late Maunder Minimum (LMM, 1685-1715) based on daily wind direction observations from ships in the English Channel. Four wind directional indices and 8-point wind roses are derived at monthly scales to characterize the LMM. The results indicate that the LMM was characterized by a pronounced meridional circulation and a marked reduction in the frequency of westerly days all year round, as compared to the present (1981-2010). The winter circulation contributed the most to the cold conditions. Nevertheless, findings indicate that the LMM in Europe was more heterogeneous than previously thought, displaying contrasting spatial patterns in both circulation and temperature, as well as large decadal variability. In particular, there was an increase of northerly winds favoring colder winters in the first half of the LMM, but enhanced southerlies contributing to milder conditions in the second half of the LMM. The analysis of the atmospheric circulation yields a new and complete classification ofLMMwinters. The temperature inferred from the atmospheric circulation confirms the majority of extremely cold winters well documented in the literature, while uncovering other less documented cold and mild winters. The results also suggest a nonstationarity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern within the LMM, with extremely cold winters being driven by negative phases of a ''high zonal'' NAO pattern and ''low zonal'' NAO patterns dominating during moderately cold winters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reflects the author's view on the paper presented by S. K. Sathees and V. Ramanathan concerning the method to determine aerosol radiative forcing from spectral optical depths. The author states that a more refined methodology useful to a wide variety of environments, which follows stringent criteria and is statistically rigorous, has already been published in other papers. The author also presented other unjustifiable claims stated in the study.

In the atmospheric sciences, master equations are mainly used in a discrete time approximation to provide forecasts of the probability density function in a discretized phase space spanned by a few climate variables. The coefficients of an empirical master equation (EME) are estimated from the relative frequencies of transitions observed in time series of the variables. The quality of an EME depends on, among other things, the length and time resolution of the available time series. In this part of the paper, these dependencies are studied on the basis of data from the three-component Lorenz model with additional white noise forcing. Thus, time series of almost any length and time resolution can be generated easily, and probability density forecasts can be compared directly with the evolution of an ensemble of points. Useful results are obtained by partitioning the phase space into several hundred cells of equal grid size. The authors find that a threshold length of the time series exists beyond which improvements in the performance of the EME are hard to detect. It is even more surprising that the performance deteriorates with reduction of the time step. This is due to an increase in numerical diffusion. The choice of the dimensionality and the selection of the variables of the EME are very important. The results of this part of the paper provide useful guidelines for any application of the EME in the atmospheric sciences and elsewhere. The second part of the paper illustrates the usefulness of these guidelines through applications to stratospheric dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a simplified moist general circulation model is developed and used to study changes in the atmospheric general circulation as the water vapor content of the atmosphere is altered. The key elements of the model physics are gray radiative transfer, in which water vapor and other constituents have no effect on radiative fluxes, a simple diffusive boundary layer with prognostic depth, and a mixed layer aquaplanet surface boundary condition. This GCM can be integrated stably without a convection parameterization, with large-scale condensation only, and this study focuses on this simplest version of the model. These simplifications provide a useful framework in which to focus on the interplay between latent heat release and large-scale dynamics. In this paper, the authors study the role of moisture in determining the tropospheric static stability and midlatitude eddy scale. In a companion paper, the effects of moisture on energy transports by baroclinic eddies are discussed. The authors vary a parameter in the Clausius–Clapeyron relation to control the amount of water in the atmosphere, and consider circulations ranging from the dry limit to 10 times a control value. The typical length scale of midlatitude eddies is found to be remarkably insensitive to the amount of moisture in the atmosphere in this model. The Rhines scale evaluated at the latitude of the maximum eddy kinetic energy fits the model results for the eddy scale well. Moist convection is important in determining the extratropical lapse rate, and the dry stability is significantly increased with increased moisture content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Barry Saltzman was a giant in the fields of meteorology and climate science. A leading figure in the study of weather and climate for over 40 yr, he has frequently been referred to as the “father of modern climate theory.” Ahead of his time in many ways, Saltzman made significant contributions to our understanding of the general circulation and spectral energetics budget of the atmosphere, as well as climate change across a wide spectrum of time scales. In his endeavor to develop a unified theory of how the climate system works, he played a role in the development of energy balance models, statistical dynamical models, and paleoclimate dynamical models. He was a pioneer in developing meteorologically motivated dynamical systems, including the progenitor of Lorenz’s famous chaos model. In applying his own dynamical-systems approach to long-term climate change, he recognized the potential for using atmospheric general circulation models in a complimentary way. In 1998, he was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby medal, the highest honor of the American Meteorological Society “for his life-long contributions to the study of the global circulation and the evolution of the earth’s climate.” In this paper, the authors summarize and place into perspective some of the most significant contributions that Barry Saltzman made during his long and distinguished career. This short review also serves as an introduction to the papers in this special issue of the Journal of Climate dedicated to Barry’s memory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parameterizations of turbulence often predict several lower-order moments and make closure assumptions for higher-order moments. In principle, the low- and high-order moments share the same probability density function (PDF). One closure assumption, then, is the shape of this family of PDFs. When the higher-order moments involve both velocity and thermodynamic scalars, often the PDF shape has been assumed to be a double or triple delta function. This is equivalent to assuming a mass-flux model with no subplume variability. However, PDF families other than delta functions can be assumed. This is because the assumed PDF methodology is fairly general. This paper proposes closures for several third- and fourth-order moments. To derive the closures, the moments are assumed to be consistent with a particular PDF family, namely, a mixture of two trivariate Gaussians. (This PDF is also called a double Gaussian or binormal PDF by some authors.) Separately from the PDF assumption, the paper also proposes a simplified relationship between scalar and velocity skewnesses. This PDF family and skewness relationship are simple enough to yield simple, analytic closure formulas relating the moments. If certain conditions hold, this set of moments is specifically realizable. By this it is meant that the set of moments corresponds to a real Gaussian-mixture PDF, one that is normalized and nonnegative everywhere. This paper compares the new closure formulas with both large eddy simulations (LESs) and closures based on double and triple delta PDFs. This paper does not implement the closures in a single-column model and test them interactively. Rather, the comparisons are diagnostic; that is, low-order moments are extracted from the LES and treated as givens that are input into the closures. This isolates errors in the closures from errors in a single-column model. The test cases are three atmospheric boundary layers: a trade wind cumulus layer, a stratocumulus layer, and a clear convective case. The new closures have shortcomings, but nevertheless are superior to the double or triple delta closures in most of the cases tested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers a critical review of the topic of cloud–climate feedbacks and exposes some of the underlying reasons for the inherent lack of understanding of these feedbacks and why progress might be expected on this important climate problem in the coming decade. Although many processes and related parameters come under the influence of clouds, it is argued that atmospheric processes fundamentally govern the cloud feedbacks via the relationship between the atmospheric circulations, cloudiness, and the radiative and latent heating of the atmosphere. It is also shown how perturbations to the atmospheric radiation budget that are induced by cloud changes in response to climate forcing dictate the eventual response of the global-mean hydrological cycle of the climate model to climate forcing. This suggests that cloud feedbacks are likely to control the bulk precipitation efficiency and associated responses of the planet’s hydrological cycle to climate radiative forcings. The paper provides a brief overview of the effects of clouds on the radiation budget of the earth–atmosphere system and a review of cloud feedbacks as they have been defined in simple systems, one being a system in radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) and others relating to simple feedback ideas that regulate tropical SSTs. The systems perspective is reviewed as it has served as the basis for most feedback analyses. What emerges is the importance of being clear about the definition of the system. It is shown how different assumptions about the system produce very different conclusions about the magnitude and sign of feedbacks. Much more diligence is called for in terms of defining the system and justifying assumptions. In principle, there is also neither any theoretical basis to justify the system that defines feedbacks in terms of global–time-mean changes in surface temperature nor is there any compelling empirical evidence to do so. The lack of maturity of feedback analysis methods also suggests that progress in understanding climate feedback will require development of alternative methods of analysis. It has been argued that, in view of the complex nature of the climate system, and the cumbersome problems encountered in diagnosing feedbacks, understanding cloud feedback will be gleaned neither from observations nor proved from simple theoretical argument alone. The blueprint for progress must follow a more arduous path that requires a carefully orchestrated and systematic combination of model and observations. Models provide the tool for diagnosing processes and quantifying feedbacks while observations provide the essential test of the model’s credibility in representing these processes. While GCM climate and NWP models represent the most complete description of all the interactions between the processes that presumably establish the main cloud feedbacks, the weak link in the use of these models lies in the cloud parameterization imbedded in them. Aspects of these parameterizations remain worrisome, containing levels of empiricism and assumptions that are hard to evaluate with current global observations. Clearly observationally based methods for evaluating cloud parameterizations are an important element in the road map to progress. Although progress in understanding the cloud feedback problem has been slow and confused by past analysis, there are legitimate reasons outlined in the paper that give hope for real progress in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper an application of clustering algorithms for statistical downscaling in short-range weather forecasts is presented. The advantages of this technique compared with standard nearest-neighbors analog methods are described both in terms of computational efficiency and forecast skill. Some validation results of daily precipitation and maximum wind speed operative downscaling (lead time 1–5 days) on a network of 100 stations in the Iberian Peninsula are reported for the period 1998–99. These results indicate that the weighting clustering method introduced in this paper clearly outperforms standard analog techniques for infrequent, or extreme, events (precipitation > 20 mm; wind > 80 km h-1). Outputs of an operative circulation model on different local-area or large-scale grids are considered to characterize the atmospheric circulation patterns, and the skill of both alternatives is compared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The early season rainfall (ESR) over southern China, usually occurring from April to June, is a prominent meteorological phenomenon of the East Asian monsoon system. In this paper, output from the 45-day hindcast by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and various observational datasets are analyzed to assess the predictability of the ESR and associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that CFSv2 can successfully predict the ESR and associated circulation patterns over southern China. The lower-tropospheric convergence and upper-tropospheric divergence as well as the local upward motion over southern China lead to the formation of ESR. Analysis of bias shows small differences and close relationships between the predicted and observed ESR values when the forecast lead time is less than 2 weeks. The skill in the ESR predictions by CFSv2 decreases significantly when the lead time is longer than 2 weeks. Overall, CFSv2 has a higher level of skill when predicting the southern China ESR compared to the rainfall over other Asian regions during the same period of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the second part of a two-part paper whose main objective is to improve the characterization of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) and their errors to guide developments in the use of AMVs in numerical weather prediction (NWP). AMVs tend to exhibit considerable systematic and random errors. These errors can arise in the AMV derivation or the interpretation of AMVs as single-level point estimates of wind. An important difficulty in the study of AMV errors is the scarcity of collocated observations of clouds and wind. The study uses instead a simulation framework: geostationary imagery for Meteorological Satellite-8 ( Meteosat-8) is generated from a high-resolution simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting regional model, and AMVs are derived from sequences of these simulated images. The NWP model provides the 'truth' with a sophisticated description of the atmosphere. This second part focuses on alternative interpretations of AMVs. The key results are 1) that interpreting the AMVs as vertical and horizontal averages of wind can give some benefits over the traditional single-level interpretation (improvements in RMSVD of 5% for high-level AMVs and 20% for low-level AMVs) and 2) that there is evidence that AMVs are more representative of either a wind average over the model cloud layer or wind at a representative level within the cloud layer than of wind at the model cloud top or cloud base. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the large-scale inertio-gravity (IG) wave energy in the operational ECMWF analyses in July 2007. Energy percentages of the IG waves obtained from the standard-pressure-level data are compared to those derived from various discretizations of the model-level data. The results show a small albeit systematic increase of the IG energy percentage as the vertical level density increases from the standard-pressure levels toward the model-level density; the small relative change is explained by the sufficient vertical resolution to resolve the large-scale IG waves in the tropics that make the majority of the global IG energy on large scales. A relatively larger increase of the IG energy is obtained when the mesospheric model levels are included; however, the analyses at these levels in July 2007 are less reliable. Furthermore, two numerical methods for the normal-mode function (NMF) decomposition are shown to provide similar results. The decomposition of atmospheric analyses into the NMF series is proposed as a tool to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the large-scale equatorial waves and their role in global energetics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major question for climate studies is to quantify the role of turbulent eddy fluxes in maintaining the observed ocean-atmosphere state. It has been argued that eddy fluxes keep the midlatitude atmosphere in a state that is marginally critical to baroclinic instability, which provides a powerful constraint on the response of the atmosphere to changes in external forcing. No comparable criterion appears to exist for the ocean. This is particularly surprising for the Southern Ocean, a region whose dynamics are very similar to the midlatitude atmosphere, but observations and numerical models suggest that the currents are supercritical. This paper aims to resolve this apparent contradiction using a combination of theoretical considerations and eddy-resolving numerical simulations. It is shown that both marginally critical and supercritical mean states can be obtained in an idealized diabatically forced (and thus atmosphere-like) Boussinesq system, if the thermal expansion coefficient is varied from large atmosphere-like values to small oceanlike values. The argument is made that the difference in the thermal expansion coefficient dominantly controls the difference in the deformation scale between the two fluids and ultimately renders eddies ineffective in maintaining a marginally critical state in the limit of small thermal expansion coefficients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although predictability represents one of the fundamental problems in atmospheric science, gaps in our knowledge remain. Theoretical understanding of the inverse error cascade is limited mostly to homogeneous, isotropic turbulence, whereas numerical simulations have focused on highly complex numerical weather prediction models. These results cannot be easily reconciled. This paper describes selected aspects of the predictability behavior of rotating stratified turbulence. The objective is to determine how the predictability varies with scale when the dynamics are more realistic than the idealized models that underlie the classical picture of predictability and yet are free of the parameterizations that complicate interpretation of NWP models. Using a numerical model of the nonhydrostatic Boussinesq equations, it is shown that the predictability decay, as diagnosed by the relative error, is slower for subsynoptic flow. The dependence on the deformation radius, differences between balanced and unbalanced modes, and implications for NWP models are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information about several papers discussed at a meeting held at the University of Victoria in British Columbia on tropical meteorology is presented. Topics include the importance and complexity of tropical meteorology, the impact of atmospheric convection on local and large scale circulations in the tropics, and the usability of general circulation models (GCMs). The meeting featured several meteorologists including Andrew Majda, Philip Austin and John Scinocca.

This paper describes laboratory observations of inertia–gravity waves emitted from balanced fluid flow. In a rotating two-layer annulus experiment, the wavelength of the inertia–gravity waves is very close to the deformation radius. Their amplitude varies linearly with Rossby number in the range 0.05–0.14, at constant Burger number (or rotational Froude number). This linear scaling challenges the notion, suggested by several dynamical theories, that inertia–gravity waves generated by balanced motion will be exponentially small. It is estimated that the balanced flow leaks roughly 1% of its energy each rotation period into the inertia–gravity waves at the peak of their generation. The findings of this study imply an inevitable emission of inertia–gravity waves at Rossby numbers similar to those of the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic flow. Extrapolation of the results suggests that inertia–gravity waves might make a significant contribution to the energy budgets of the atmosphere and ocean. In particular, emission of inertia–gravity waves from mesoscale eddies may be an important source of energy for deep interior mixing in the ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper promotes the view that African easterly waves (AEWs) are triggered by localized forcing, most likely associated with latent heating upstream of the region of observed AEW growth. A primitive equation model is used to show that AEWs can be triggered by finite-amplitude transient and localized latent heating on a zonally varying basic state that is linearly stable. Heating close to the entrance region of the African easterly jet (AEJ) is shown to initiate AEWs downstream. The heating leads to an initial trough that reaches the West African coast about 5–7 days later, depending on the nature of the heating profile. After this, a structure that projects strongly onto the leading linear normal mode of the basic state becomes established, characterized by a number of westward-propagating disturbances that strongly resemble AEWs. The sensitivity of the forced AEWs to the nature and location of the heating profile is examined. AEWs are most efficiently triggered by heating profiles that establish lower tropospheric circulations close to the entrance region of the AEJ. In the present study, this was best achieved by lower tropospheric heating from shallow convection or upper-level heating and lower-level cooling from a stratiform precipitation profile. Both profiles have significant heating gradients in the vertical in the mid-to-lower troposphere. This triggering paradigm for the genesis of AEWs has consequences for the variability and predictability of AEWs at weather and climate time scales. In addition to the nature of the AEJ, often emphasized, it is crucial to consider the nature and variability of upstream heating triggers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the tropospheric jet shift to a prescribed zonal torque in an idealized dry atmospheric model with high stratospheric resolution. The jet moves in opposite directions for torques on the jet’s equatorward and poleward flanks in the troposphere. This can be explained by considering how the critical latitudes for wave activity absorption change, where the eastward propagation speed of eddies equals the background zonal mean zonal wind. While the increased zonal winds in the subtropics allow the midlatitude eddies to propagate farther into the tropics and result in the equatorward shift in the critical latitudes, the increased winds in the midlatitudes accelerate the eastward eddy phase speeds and lead to the poleward shift in the critical latitudes. In contrast, the jet moves poleward when a westerly torque is placed in the extratropical stratosphere irrespective of the forcing latitude. The downward penetration of zonal winds to the troposphere displays a poleward slope for the subtropical torque, an equatorward slope for the high-latitude torque, and less tilting for the midlatitude torques. The stratospheric eddies play a key role in transferring zonal wind anomalies downward into the troposphere. It is argued that these stratospheric zonal wind anomalies can affect the tropospheric jet by altering the eastward propagation of tropospheric eddies. Additionally, the zonal wind response to a subtropical zonal torque in this idealized model is of value in understanding the tropospheric jet sensitivity to the orographic gravity wave drag parameterization in a realistic climate model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a dynamic framework for an atmospheric general circulation spectral model in which a reference stratified atmospheric temperature and a reference surface pressure are introduced into the governing equations so as to improve the calculation of the pressure gradient force and gradients of surface pressure and temperature. The vertical profile of the reference atmospheric temperature approximately corresponds to that of the U.S. midlatitude standard atmosphere within the troposphere and stratosphere, and the reference surface pressure is a function of surface terrain geopotential and is close to the observed mean surface pressure. Prognostic variables for the temperature and surface pressure are replaced by their perturbations from the prescribed references. The numerical algorithms of the explicit time difference scheme for vorticity and the semi-implicit time difference scheme for divergence, perturbation temperature, and perturbation surface pressure equation are given in detail. The modified numerical framework is implemented in the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to test its validation and impact on simulated climate. Both the original and the modified models are run with the same spectral resolution (T42), the same physical parameterizations, and the same boundary conditions corresponding to the observed monthly mean sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration from 1971 to 2000. This permits one to evaluate the performance of the new dynamic framework compared to the commonly used one. Results show that there is a general improvement for the simulated climate at regional and global scales, especially for temperature and wind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geostationary infrared sounding missions offer good temporal coverage; however, because of the large distance to the observed earth targets, the effect of diffraction is increased compared to sounding from a low earth orbit (LEO). Because of the wavelength dependence of diffraction, the spectral channels do not sample the same volume of air, as is generally assumed by retrieval algorithms for LEO infrared (IR) sounder data. This additional error introduced in the retrieval by diffraction-limited instruments is called pseudonoise throughout the paper. One such diffraction-limited geostationary system is the candidate Infrared Sounder (IRS) mission on the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellites with a planned need date in 2015, due to the expected lifetime of the current Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites. A simplified point spread function (PSF) is applied. To represent the channels within natural conditions, measured spectra from the LEO Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are used as an underlying scene when integrating over the PSF. As the AIRS spatial resolution is 15 km, the basic assumption made was that the meteorological and surface features can be regarded as fractal to the extent that they can be downscaled to at least 4 km, making them useful for these investigations. The results show that the pseudonoise is highly dependent on wavelength, and highest in the window and CO2 regions (within the broader 700–1200 cm-1, or 8.3–14.3-μm, region). The worst-case pseudonoise values are approximately 1 K for these regions. A case study of the impact of the obtained pseudonoise values on temperature and water vapor retrievals shows that only with the worst-case assumptions (uncorrelated noise) is there a quantifiable impact on the results. For temperature retrievals, this ranged from 0.1 to 0.3 K in the lower and upper troposphere, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Katabatic winds on ice sheets and glaciers are buoyancy-driven flows, much like turbidity currents in the ocean. These winds are driven by radiative cooling of the ice surface and are not resolved by the typical horizontal and vertical discretization of general circulation models; therefore, a parameterization of their magnitude is desirable. In this paper, it is shown that the simplest such parameterization, based on the classical Prandtl model of slope winds, is physically inadmissible, and an improved model, which removes this irregularity, is presented. It is also shown that the improved model allows favorable comparison with both observations and regional numerical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an analysis of large-scale [O(1000 km)] convectively coupled gravity waves simulated using a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model. The waves develop spontaneously under uniform radiative cooling and approximately zero-mean-flow conditions, with wavenumber 2 of the domain appearing most prominently and right-moving components dominating over left-moving components for random reasons. The analysis discretizes the model output in two ways. First, a vertical-mode transform projects profiles of winds, temperature, and heating onto the vertical modes of the model’s base-state atmosphere. Second, a cloud-partitioning algorithm sorts sufficiently cloudy grid columns into three categories: shallow convective, deep convective, and stratiform anvil. Results show that much of the tilted structures of the waves can be captured by just two main vertical spectral “bands,” each consisting of a pair of vertical modes. The “slow” modes have propagation speeds of 16 and 18 m s-1 (and roughly a full-wavelength vertical structure through the troposphere), while the “fast” modes have speeds of 35 and 45 m s-1 (and roughly a half-wavelength structure). Deep convection anomalies in the waves are more or less in phase with the low-level cold temperature anomalies of the slow modes and in quadrature with those of the fast modes. Owing to the characteristic life cycle of deep convective cloud systems, shallow convective heating peaks ∼2 h prior to maximum deep convective heating, while stratiform heating peaks ∼3 h after. The onset of deep convection in the waves is preceded by a gradual deepening of shallow convection lasting a period of many hours. Results of this study are in broad agreement with simple two-mode models of unstable large-scale wave growth, under the name “stratiform instability.” Differences here are that 1) the key dynamical modes have speeds in the range 16–18 m s-1, rather than 23–25 m s-1 (owing to a shallower depth of imposed radiative cooling), and 2) deep convective heating, as well as stratiform heating, is essential for the generation and maintenance of the slow modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A better conceptual understanding and more realistic parameterizations of convective boundary layers in climate and weather prediction models have been major challenges in meteorological research. In particular, parameterizations of the dry convective boundary layer, in spite of the absence of water phase-changes and its consequent simplicity as compared to moist convection, typically suffer from problems in attempting to represent realistically the boundary layer growth and what is often referred to as countergradient fluxes. The eddy-diffusivity (ED) approach has been relatively successful in representing some characteristics of neutral boundary layers and surface layers in general. The mass-flux (MF) approach, on the other hand, has been used for the parameterization of shallow and deep moist convection. In this paper, a new approach that relies on a combination of the ED and MF parameterizations (EDMF) is proposed for the dry convective boundary layer. It is shown that the EDMF approach follows naturally from a decomposition of the turbulent fluxes into 1) a part that includes strong organized updrafts, and 2) a remaining turbulent field. At the basis of the EDMF approach is the concept that nonlocal subgrid transport due to the strong updrafts is taken into account by the MF approach, while the remaining transport is taken into account by an ED closure. Large-eddy simulation (LES) results of the dry convective boundary layer are used to support the theoretical framework of this new approach and to determine the parameters of the EDMF model. The performance of the new formulation is evaluated against LES results, and it is shown that the EDMF closure is able to reproduce the main properties of dry convective boundary layers in a realistic manner. Furthermore, it will be shown that this approach has strong advantages over the more traditional countergradient approach, especially in the entrainment layer. As a result, this EDMF approach opens the way to parameterize the clear and cumulus-topped boundary layer in a simple and unified way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the revision and evaluation of the interface between the convective parameterization by Emanuel and Živković-Rothman and the Lagrangian particle dispersion model “FLEXPART” based on meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The convection scheme relies on the ECMWF grid-scale temperature and humidity and provides a matrix necessary for the vertical convective particle displacement. The benefits of the revised interface relative to its previous version are presented. It is shown that, apart from minor fluctuations caused by the stochastic convective redistribution of the particles, the well-mixed criterion is fulfilled in simulations that include convection. Although for technical reasons the calculation of the displacement matrix differs somewhat between the forward and the backward simulations in time, the mean relative difference between the convective mass fluxes in forward and backward simulations is below 3% and can therefore be tolerated. A comparison of the convective mass fluxes and precipitation rates with those archived in the 40-yr ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-40) data reveals that the convection scheme in FLEXPART produces upward mass fluxes and precipitation rates that are generally smaller by about 25% than those from ERA-40. This result is interpreted as positive, because precipitation is known to be overestimated by the ECMWF model. Tracer transport simulations with and without convection are compared with surface and aircraft measurements from two tracer experiments and to 222Rn measurements from two aircraft campaigns. At the surface no substantial differences between the model runs with and without convection are found, but at higher altitudes the model runs with convection produced better agreement with the measurements in most of the cases and indifferent results in the others. However, for the tracer experiments only few measurements at higher altitudes are available, and for the aircraft campaigns the 222Rn emissions are highly uncertain. Other datasets better suitable for the validation of convective transport in models are not available. Thus, there is a clear need for reliable datasets suitable to validate vertical transport in models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The shallow-water equations may be posed in the form df /dt = {F, H, Z}, where H is the energy, Z is the potential enstrophy, and the Nambu bracket {F, H, Z} is completely antisymmetric in its three arguments. This makes it very easy to construct numerical models that conserve analogs of the energy and potential enstrophy; one need only discretize the Nambu bracket in such a way that the antisymmetry property is maintained. Using this strategy, this paper derives explicit finite-difference approximations to the shallow-water equations that conserve mass, circulation, energy, and potential enstrophy on a regular square grid and on an unstructured triangular mesh. The latter includes the regular hexagonal grid as a special case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a unified perspective on the dynamics of hurricane- and monsoonlike vortices by identifying them as specific limiting cases of a more general flow system. This more general system is defined as stationary axisymmetric balanced flow of a stably stratified non-Boussinesq atmosphere on the f plane. The model is based on the primitive equations assuming gradient wind balance in the radial momentum equation. The flow is forced by heating in the vortex center, which is implemented as relaxation toward a specified equilibrium temperature Te. The flow is dissipated through surface friction, and it is assumed to be almost inviscid in the interior. The heating is assumed supercritical, which means that Te does not allow a regular thermal equilibrium solution with zero surface wind, and which gives rise to a cross-vortex secondary circulation. Numerical solutions are obtained using time stepping to a steady state, where at each step the Eliassen secondary circulation is diagnosed as part of the solution strategy. Reality and regularity of the solution is discussed, putting this work in relation to previous work. Scaling analysis suggests that for a given geometry, essential vortex properties are controlled by the ratio F = αT/cD, where αT is the rate of thermal relaxation and cD quantifies the strength of surface friction for a given surface wind. For large F, the temperature is close to Te and the vortex shows properties that can be associated with a hurricane including strong cyclonic surface winds. On the other hand, for small F, the vortex shows properties that can be associated with a monsoon; that is, the surface winds are small and the secondary circulation keeps the temperature significantly away from Te. The scaling analysis is verified by numerical solutions spanning a wide range of the parameter space. It is shown how the two limiting cases correspond with the respective approximate semianalytical theories presented previously. The results imply an important role of αT for hurricane formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A successful description of a convective boundary layer requires that the model employed takes into account the nonlocal nature of turbulent convection. In this paper new third-order moments (TOMs) are presented and tested. Numerical solutions are obtained using mean flow components and second-order moments as input. The problem of the turbulent damping of the TOMs is considered. The terms in the dynamic equations responsible for the unphysical growth of the TOMs are parameterized, taking into account their dependence on the integral length scale vertical profile. The calculated profiles are presented and tested against large-eddy simulation data and aircraft measurements. In both cases the results compare favorably. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction between synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow (SELF) has been recognized for decades to play an important role in the dynamics of the low-frequency variability of the atmospheric circulation. In this three-part study a linear framework with a stochastic basic flow capturing both the climatological mean flow and climatological measures of the synoptic eddy flow is proposed. Based on this linear framework, a set of linear dynamic equations is derived for the ensemble-mean eddy forcing that is generated by anomalous time-mean flows. By assuming that such dynamically determined eddy-forcing anomalies approximately represent the time-mean anomalies of the synoptic eddy forcing and by using a quasi-equilibrium approximation, an analytical nonlocal dynamical closure is obtained for the two-way SELF feedback. This linear closure, directly relating time-mean anomalies of the synoptic eddy forcing to the anomalous time–mean flow, becomes an internal part of a new linear dynamic system for anomalous time–mean flow that is referred to as the low-frequency variability of the atmospheric circulation in this paper. In Part I, the basic approach for the SELF closure is illustrated using a barotropic model. The SELF closure is tested through the comparison of the observed eddy-forcing patterns associated with the leading low-frequency modes with those derived using the SELF feedback closure. Examples are also given to illustrate an important role played by the SELF feedback in regulating the atmospheric responses to remote forcing. Further applications of the closure for understanding the dynamics of low-frequency modes as well as the extension of the closure to a multilevel primitive equation model will be given in Parts II and III, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The steeply rising coastal terrain of southeast Alaska can produce a wide variety of terrain-induced flows such as barrier jets, gap flows, and downslope wind storms. This study uses a combination of satellite remote sensing, field observations, and modeling to improve our understanding of the dynamics of these flows. After examining several thousand synthetic aperture radar (SAR) high-resolution wind speed images over the Gulf of Alaska, several subclasses of barrier jets were identified that do not fit the current conceptual model of barrier jet development. This conceptual model consists of an acceleration and turning of the ambient cross-barrier flow into the along-barrier direction when the ambient low-level flow is blocked by terrain; however, the SAR imagery showed many barrier jet cases with significant flow variability in the along-coast direction as well as evidence for the influence of cold, dry continental air exiting the gaps in coastal terrain. A subclass of jets has been observed where the transition from the coastal to the offshore flow is abrupt. The results from these climatological studies have motivated modeling studies of selected events as well as field observations from the Southeast Alaska Regional Jets (SARJET) experiment field campaign in the Gulf of Alaska during fall of 2004. This paper will highlight preliminary results obtained during SARJET, which collected in situ measurements of barrier jets and gap flows using the University of Wyoming's King Air research aircraft. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ultrasonic anemometers are widely used to investigate turbulence in the surface layer. Some of their advantages are high-frequency sampling, the ability to work for long periods without a resident operator (even in adverse meteorological conditions), and their calibration related only to design parameters. In this paper an analysis of the random uncertainty associated with ultrasonic anemometer measurements is reported. The analysis is based on a statistical procedure that compares the simultaneous data taken with two identical anemometers operating in nominally identical conditions. Postprocessing of data has been carried out in different reference systems in order to evaluate how the random uncertainties change according to the postprocessing procedure used. Results show that uncertainty on wind velocity decreases with averaging time, and it can be as low as 1 cm s-1 for a typical averaging time of 30 min. The random uncertainty on average vertical wind velocity could also be as low as 1 cm s-1, and it is very sensitive to the effects of vertical misalignment. The analysis is based on six different measurement sets in which the anemometers have been deployed on a single mast or in two separate masts with and without additional detectors placed near the anemometers themselves. Results indicate that the uncertainty of all the measured parameters increases when the anemometer is used in configurations in which they are placed on separate masts. Several parameters also show an additional increase of uncertainty if other detectors are placed nearby. The relative random uncertainty on momentum and sensible heat fluxes, for typical averaging time, can be as low as 6%–7% and it could increase to a factor of 2–3 when they are placed on separate masts. Only small effects due to the influence of flow distortions caused by the presence of additional sensors have been found on fluxes and are mainly related to sensible heat flux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies multiple regimes and low-frequency oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere zonal-mean zonal flow in winter, using 55 yr of daily observational data. The probability density function estimated in the phase space spanned by the two leading empirical orthogonal functions exhibits two distinct, statistically significant maxima. The two regimes associated with these maxima describe persistent zonal-flow states that are characterized by meridional displacements of the midlatitude jet, poleward and equatorward of its time-mean position. The geopotential height anomalies of either regime have a pronounced zonally symmetric component, but largest-amplitude anomalies are located over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. High-frequency synoptic transients participate in the maintenance of and transitions between these regimes. Significant oscillatory components with periods of 147 and 72 days are identified by spectral analysis of the zonal-flow time series. These oscillations are described by singular spectrum analysis and the multitaper method. The 147-day oscillation involves zonal-flow anomalies that propagate poleward, while the 72-day oscillation only manifests northward propagation in the Atlantic sector. Both modes mainly describe changes in the midlatitude jet position and intensity. In the horizontal plane though, the two modes exhibit synchronous centers of action located over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The two persistent flow regimes are associated with slow phases of either oscillation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results from a high-resolution numerical simulation of the 24 May 2002 dryline convective initiation (CI) case are presented. The simulation uses a 400 km × 700 km domain with a 1-km horizontal resolution grid nested inside a 3-km domain and starts from an assimilated initial condition at 1800 UTC. Routine as well as special upper-air and surface observations collected during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) are assimilated into the initial condition. The initiation of convective storms at around 2015 UTC along a section of the dryline south of the Texas panhandle is correctly predicted, as is the noninitiation of convection at a cold-front–dryline intersection (triple point) located farther north. The timing and location of predicted CI are accurate to within 20 min and 25 km, respectively. The general evolution of the predicted convective line up to 6 h of model time also verifies well. Mesoscale convergence associated with the confluent flow around the dryline is shown to produce an upward moisture bulge, while surface heating and boundary layer mixing are responsible for the general deepening of the boundary layer. These processes produce favorable conditions for convection but the actual triggering of deep moist convection at specific locations along the dryline depends on localized forcing. Interaction of the primary dryline convergence boundary with horizontal convective rolls on its west side provides such localized forcing, while convective eddies on the immediate east side are suppressed by a downward mesoscale dryline circulation. A companion paper analyzes in detail the exact processes of convective initiation along this dryline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study describes atmospheric forcing parameters constructed from different global climatologies, applied to the Black Sea, and investigates the sensitivity of Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) simulations to these products. Significant discussion is devoted to construction of these parameters before using them in the eddy-resolving (≈3.2-km resolution) HYCOM simulations. The main goal is to answer how the model dynamics can be substantially affected by different atmospheric forcing products in the Black Sea. Eight wind forcing products are used: four obtained from observation-based climatologies, including one based on measurements from the SeaWinds scatterometer on the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite, and the rest formed from operational model products. Thermal forcing parameters, including solar radiation, are formed from two operational models: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). Climatologically forced Black Sea HYCOM simulations (without ocean data assimilation) are then performed to assess the accuracy and sensitivity of the model sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface circulation to these wind and thermal forcing products. Results demonstrate that the model-simulated SST structure is quite sensitive to the wind and thermal forcing products, especially near coastal regions. Despite this sensitivity, several robust features are found in the model SST in comparison to a monthly 9.3-km-resolution satellite-based Pathfinder SST climatology. Annual mean HYCOM SST usually agreed to within ≈±0.2° of the climatology in the interior of the Black Sea for any of the wind and thermal forcing products used. The fine-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) wind forcing from the scatterometer data along with thermal forcing from NOGAPS gave the best SST simulation with a basin-averaged rms difference value of 1.21°C, especially improving model results near coastal regions. Specifically, atmospherically forced model simulations with no assimilation of any ocean data suggest that the basin-averaged rms SST differences with respect to the Pathfinder SST climatology can vary from 1.21° to 2.15°C depending on the wind and thermal forcing product. The latter rms SST difference value is obtained when using wind forcing from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a product that has a too-coarse grid resolution of 1.875° × 1.875° for a small ocean basin such as the Black Sea. This paper also highlights the importance of using high-frequency (hybrid) wind forcing as opposed to monthly mean wind forcing in the model simulations. Finally, there are large variations in the annual mean surface circulation simulated using the different wind sets, with general agreement between those forced by the model-based products (vector correlation is usually >0.7). Three of the observation-based climatologies generally yield unrealistic circulation features and currents that are too weak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical warm pools appear as the primary mode in the distribution of tropical sea surface temperature (SST). Most previous studies have focused on the role of atmospheric processes in homogenizing temperatures in the warm pool and establishing the observed statistical SST distribution. In this paper, a hierarchy of models is used to illustrate both oceanic and atmospheric mechanisms that contribute to the establishment of tropical warm pools. It is found that individual atmospheric processes have competing effects on the SST distribution: atmospheric heat transport tends to homogenize SST, while the spatial structure of atmospheric humidity and surface wind speeds tends to remove homogeneity. The latter effects dominate, and under atmosphere-only processes there is no warm pool. Ocean dynamics counter this effect by homogenizing SST, and it is argued that ocean dynamics is fundamental to the existence of the warm pool. Under easterly wind stress, the thermocline is deep in the west and shallow in the east. Because of this, poleward Ekman transport of water at the surface, compensated by equatorward geostrophic flow below and linked by equatorial upwelling, creates a cold tongue in the east but homogenizes SST in the west, creating a warm pool. High clouds may also homogenize the SST by reducing the surface solar radiation over the warmest water, but the strength of this feedback is quite uncertain. Implications for the role of these processes in climate change are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative importance of the processes responsible for the annual cycle in the upper-ocean heat content in the Peru Current, in the southeastern tropical Pacific, was diagnosed from an oceanic analysis dataset. It was found that the annual cycle of heat content is forced mainly by insolation. However, the ocean dynamical processes play an important role in producing different regional budget characteristics. In a band 500 km from the coast of Peru, the annual heat content changes in this region are relatively large and can be approximated as sea surface temperature (SST) changes in a fixed-depth mixed layer. The annual cycle of the albedo associated with low-level clouds enhances the annual cycle in insolation, which explains the relatively strong annual cycle of heat content. These clouds, to a large extent, act as a feedback to SST, but a small additional forcing, which is proposed to be cold air advection in this paper, is needed to explain the fact that the maximum cloudiness leads the lowest SST by around a month. Ocean dynamics is important closer to the coast, where upwelling acts partly as damping of the heat content changes and forces it to peak earlier than farther offshore. In a band farther to the southwest, locally wind-forced thermocline motions, which become shallower (deeper) in the warm (cool) season, partially cancel the effect of net surface heat fluxes, whose annual cycle is comparable to that in the region previously mentioned, producing a relatively small annual cycle of heat content. The local forcing appears to be associated with the annual meridional displacements of the South Pacific anticyclone. The annual cycle in SST is also relatively small, which is probably due to the changes in the temperature of the water entrained into the mixed layer associated with the thermocline motions, but also to a mixed layer deeper than that closer to the coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents the first multidecadal climatology of cutoff low systems in the Northern Hemisphere. The climatology was constructed by using 41 yr (1958–98) of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data and identifying cutoff lows by means of an objective method based on imposing the three main physical characteristics of the conceptual model of cutoff low (the 200-hPa geopotential minimum, cutoff circulation, and the specific structure of both equivalent thickness and thermal front parameter fields). Several results were confirmed and climatologically validated: 1) the existence of three preferred areas of cutoff low occurrence (the first one extends through southern Europe and the eastern Atlantic coast, the second one is the eastern North Pacific, and the third one is the northern China–Siberian region extending to the northwestern Pacific coast; the European area is the most favored region); 2) the known seasonal cycle, with cutoff lows forming much more frequently in summer than in winter; 3) the short lifetime of cutoff lows, most cutoff lows lasted 2–3 days and very few lasted more than 5 days; and 4) the mobility of the system, with few cutoff lows being stationary. Furthermore, the long study period has made it possible (i) to find a bimodal distribution in the geographical density of cutoff lows for the European sector in all the seasons (with the exception of winter), a summer displacement to the ocean in the American region, and a summer extension to the continent in the Asian region, and (ii) to detect northward and westward motion especially in the transitions from the second to third day of occurrence and from the third to fourth day of occurrence. The long-term cutoff low database built in this study is appropriate to study the interannual variability of cutoff low occurrence and the links between cutoff lows and jet stream systems, blocking, or major modes of climate variability as well as the global importance of cutoff low in the stratosphere–troposphere exchange mechanism, which will be the focus of a subsequent paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric circulation statistics are not strictly Gaussian. Small bumps and other deviations from Gaussian probability distributions are often interpreted as implying the existence of distinct and persistent nonlinear circulation regimes associated with higher-than-average levels of predictability. In this paper it is shown that such deviations from Gaussianity can, however, also result from linear stochastically perturbed dynamics with multiplicative noise statistics. Such systems can be associated with much lower levels of predictability. Multiplicative noise is often identified with state-dependent variations of stochastic feedbacks from unresolved system components, and may be treated as stochastic perturbations of system parameters. It is shown that including such perturbations in the damping of large-scale linear Rossby waves can lead to deviations from Gaussianity very similar to those observed in the joint probability distribution of the first two principal components (PCs) of weekly averaged 750-hPa streamfunction data for the past 52 winters. A closer examination of the Fokker–Planck probability budget in the plane spanned by these two PCs shows that the observed deviations from Gaussianity can be modeled with multiplicative noise, and are unlikely the results of slow nonlinear interactions of the two PCs. It is concluded that the observed non-Gaussian probability distributions do not necessarily imply the existence of persistent nonlinear circulation regimes, and are consistent with those expected for a linear system perturbed by multiplicative noise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although a fairly common atmospheric condition in orographic-rain scenarios, there is relatively little known about moist neutral flows over a ridge from theory and modeling. Presented in this paper are numerical simulations of the orographic-flow modification occurring for a two-dimensional moist nearly neutral flow over a ridge in the regime where the Coriolis force can be neglected. If an initially saturated moist neutral flow were to remain everywhere saturated as it flows over an obstacle, then the expected solution would be the linear solution because the condition for linearity (hill height less than the ambient wind velocity/static stability) is always met. However, for higher mountains, the solutions indicate the development of areas of unsaturated air, with correspondingly larger values of local static stability. This internal switching from small to large values of static stability is an inherent nonlinearity, which has far-reaching consequences for understanding the orographic-flow modification in this regime. The sensitivity of the solution to the mountain height and to the initial cloud water content is analyzed here. The authors find that the solutions fall into three basic categories. If the mountain height is small enough, a saturated flow can be maintained everywhere given sufficient initial cloud water; for tall mountains the atmosphere upwind of the mountain is maintained in a saturated state and transitions to an unsaturated downslope flow on the lee side, which has characteristics associated with downslope windstorms; for mountains of intermediate height, the solutions show the existence of an upwind-propagating disturbance that has the effect of desaturating the atmosphere above the mountain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Direct diagnostic evaluation of the moisture tendency in the moisture equation is very difficult in practice because two poorly measured terms, moisture convergence and precipitation, dominate the equation. Using the near constancy in space and time of the tropical temperature profile, a variety of energy and entropy based equations have been employed to obtain indirect estimates of the moisture budget. In this paper rigorous versions of the energy and entropy equations are developed. The strengths and weakness of these two formulations are complementary, allowing the authors to estimate moistening and drying tendencies with high confidence when the two formulations are used together. This study applies the theory to data from Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). The results demonstrate how convection regulates the tropospheric humidity, drying the atmosphere when it becomes too moist, and moistening it when it becomes too dry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews recent research that assesses evidence for the detection of anthropogenic and natural external influences on the climate. Externally driven climate change has been detected by a number of investigators in independent data covering many parts of the climate system, including surface temperature on global and large regional scales, ocean heat content, atmospheric circulation, and variables of the free atmosphere, such as atmospheric temperature and tropopause height. The influence of external forcing is also clearly discernible in reconstructions of hemispheric-scale temperature of the last millennium. These observed climate changes are very unlikely to be due only to natural internal climate variability, and they are consistent with the responses to anthropogenic and natural external forcing of the climate system that are simulated with climate models. The evidence indicates that natural drivers such as solar variability and volcanic activity are at most partially responsible for the large-scale temperature changes observed over the past century, and that a large fraction of the warming over the last 50 yr can be attributed to greenhouse gas increases. Thus, the recent research supports and strengthens the IPCC Third Assessment Report conclusion that “most of the global warming over the past 50 years is likely due to the increase in greenhouse gases.” [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall over southwest Western Australia (SWWA; 32°S southward and 118°E westward) has been decreasing over the past decades, putting further constraints on water resources in an already dry area. In this study, daily rainfall over five geographically dispersed and homogenized weather stations within SWWA are analyzed. A peak over threshold method from the extreme value theory is used to model daily rainfall above a given threshold. The Mann–Whitney–Pittitt (change point) test was applied to detect changes in annual, winter (May–October), and summer (November–April) maximum daily rainfall. Change points for winter extreme daily rainfall were found around 1965, based on different individual stations, with the extreme daily rainfall reduced since then. To demonstrate the degree of change in the winter extreme daily rainfall, at 1965 the data were stratified, and generalized Pareto distributions were fitted to the tails of the distributions for daily rainfall in the prechange period of 1930–65 (including 1965) and the postchange period of 1966–2001. The fitted tail distributions also allow the estimation of probabilities and return periods of the daily rainfall extreme. Results show that return periods for the winter extreme daily rainfall have increased after 1965, implying that winter daily rainfall extremes in SWWA are lower after 1965 than they were before. There has been vigorous debate as to what forces the drying trend, that is, whether it is part of multidecadal variability or whether it is driven by secular forcings, such as increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. In this paper, statistical modeling is also used to identify possible associated changes in atmospheric circulation. It is found that there is a change point near 1965 in a dominant atmospheric circulation mode of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). The result offers qualified support for the argument that the AAO may contribute to the drying trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Algorithms are now currently used for the retrieval of cloud optical thickness and droplet effective radius from multispectral radiance measurements. This paper extends their application to the retrieval of cloud droplet number concentration, cloud geometrical thickness, and liquid water path in shallow convective clouds, using an algorithm that was previously tested with airborne measurements of cloud radiances and validated against in situ measurements of the same clouds. The retrieval is based on a stratified cloud model of liquid water content and droplet spectrum. Radiance measurements in visible and near-infrared channels of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), which is operated from the NASA platforms Terra and Aqua, are analyzed. Because of uncertainties in the simulation of the continental surface reflectance, the algorithm is presently limited to the monitoring of the microphysical structure of boundary layer clouds over the ocean. Two MODIS scenes of extended cloud fields over the North Atlantic Ocean trade wind region are processed. A transport and dispersion model (the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model, HYSPLIT4) is also used to characterize the origin of the air masses and hence their aerosol regimes. One cloud field formed in an air mass that was advected from southern Europe and North Africa. It shows high values of the droplet concentration when compared with the second cloud system, which developed in a more pristine environment. The more pristine case also exhibits a higher geometrical thickness and, thus, liquid water path, which counterbalances the expected cloud albedo increase of the polluted case. Estimates of cloud liquid water path are then compared with retrievals from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). SSM/I-derived liquid water paths are in good agreement with the MODIS-derived values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is Part I of a two-part study that uses high-resolution Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) simulations to investigate mesoscale land–atmosphere interactions in the summertime U.S. Southern Great Plains. The focus is on the atmospheric dynamics associated with mesoscale heterogeneity in the underlying surface fluxes: how shifts in meteorological regimes modulate these diurnal, mesoscale processes, and their overall impact at larger scales and over multiple diurnal cycles. Part I examines individual case study time periods drawn from the simulations that illustrate general points about the key land–atmosphere interactions. The main findings are as follows: The mesoscale processes are embedded within a synoptic-scale organization that controls the background meteorological regime at a given location. During the clear, dry days in the simulated months, heterogeneity in the surface fluxes forces strong, lower-tropospheric, mesoscale circulations that exhibit a characteristic dynamical life cycle over diurnal time scales. In general, the background large-scale flow does not affect the overall intensity of these coherent roll structures, though strong large-scale subsidence can sometimes dampen them. In addition, depending on the thermodynamic profile, the strong vertical motions associated with these circulations are sufficient to trigger shallow or even deep convection, with associated clouds and precipitation. Furthermore, surface heterogeneity sufficient to force such circulations can arise even without heterogeneity in preexisting land cover characteristics such as vegetation, for example, solely as a result of spatial variability in rainfall and other atmospheric processes. In Part II the mesoscale land–atmosphere interactions in these case study periods are placed in the larger context of the full, monthlong simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improved understanding of transport issues and source–receptor relationships on the interregional scale is dependent on reducing the uncertainties in the ability to define complex three-dimensional wind fields evolving in time. The numerical models used for this purpose have been upgraded substantially in recent years by introducing finer grid resolution, better representation of subgrid-scale physics, and practical four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) techniques that reduce the accumulation of errors over time. The impact of these improvements for interregional transport is investigated in this paper using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the Second-Order Closure Integrated Puff (SCIPUFF) dispersion model to simulate the 1983 Cross-Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX-83) episode 1 of 18–19 September 1983. Combining MM5 and SCIPUFF makes it possible to verify predicted tracer concentrations against observed surface concentrations collected during the CAPTEX-83 study. Conclusions from this study are as follows. 1) Not surprisingly, a baseline model configuration reflecting typical capabilities of the late 1980s (70-km horizontal grid, 15 vertical layers, older subgrid physics, and no FDDA) produced large meteorological errors that severely degraded the accuracy of the surface tracer concentrations predicted by SCIPUFF. 2) Improving the horizontal and vertical resolution of the MM5 to 12 km (typical for current operational model) and 32 layers led to some improvements in the statistical skill, but the further addition of more advanced physics produced much greater reductions of simulation errors. 3) The use of FDDA, along with 12-km resolution and improved physics, produced the overall best performance. 4) Further reduction of the horizontal grid size to 4 km had a detrimental effect on meteorological and plume-dispersion solutions in this case because of misrepresentation of convection associated with a cold front by the MM5's explicit moist physics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A realistic representation of the evolution of the dry convective boundary layer in mesoscale and large-scale atmospheric models has been an elusive goal for many years. In this paper the performance of a new mixing-length formulation for the dry convective boundary layer is evaluated in the context of the Coupled Ocean– Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). In this new formulation, the mixing length is proportional to a time scale and to the square root of the turbulent kinetic energy. The model results are tested against observations from the Climate Impact of Changes in Land Use (CICLUS) field experiment in the south of Portugal. It is shown that COAMPS with the new formulation produces a more realistic simulation of the boundary layer growth. A data assimilation experiment performed with COAMPS shows that the improvements provided by the new formulation are significant, particularly in terms of the humidity vertical distribution. Finally, one-dimensional simulations are used to confirm that the new formulation provides more accurate results because of a more realistic representation of the entrainment and of the vertical mixing in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a preliminary evaluation of meteorological measurements made by the Aerosonde (using Vaisala, Inc., RS90 sensors) by comparing them with closely correlated measurements made using traditional balloonborne sondes (Vaisala RS80-A/-H). Eighteen comparisons were completed in temperatures ranging from -20° to 10°C. Although the Aerosonde generally performed well in comparison with the radiosonde, calibration errors and time-lag errors similar to those observed between radiosonde and dropsonde observations were evident in some of the temperature and relative humidity profiles. The average temperature differences between the Aerosonde and radiosonde profiles varied between 0.01° and 1.2°C, with the Aerosonde observations being consistently warmer than the radiosonde measurements. A dry bias was also generally present in the radiosonde relative humidity observations relative to the Aerosonde observations. Wind observations were comparable. Mean wind magnitude differences ranged from 0.02 to 1.7 m s-1, with the mean wind direction differences between 0.1° and 19.1°. After application of ground-check corrections, the most prominent causes of disparity between the Aerosonde and radiosonde profiles are the inevitable temporal and spatial dislocation between the Aerosonde and radiosonde soundings and aerodynamic factors that influence the Aerosonde sensor measurements. These differences are inherent in this very different observing platform. Kinetic heating, the different sensor types, chemical contamination, storage and handling inconsistencies, and sensor age are likely to play a lesser role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this two-paper series the equilibration of a baroclinic jet is described, emphasizing the redistribution of momentum and the effects that this redistribution has on the steering level and the potential vorticity (PV) structure of the basic state. In Part I of this series the equilibration of the 2D problem is discussed, using as a model the barotropic point jet. In that problem, the zonal mean momentum is redistributed along the single direction: there is a westerly acceleration at the jet vertex and compensating easterly acceleration in the interior. Part II of this series describes the equilibration of the 3D problem. In this problem, momentum is not simply redistributed vertically, but there is also a horizontal redistribution of momentum. It is shown that this makes the dynamics very different from the 2D simulations described in Part I, and in particular that the geometrical constraints introduced there no longer apply. The results of this work give insight into why 3D effects are important to the baroclinic equilibration, and point to friction as a possible mechanism limiting thermal homogenization at the surface in the extratropical troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this two-paper series the basic dynamics concerning the equilibration of a baroclinic jet are described, using as a reference the simple Charney–Boussinesq model. Though this problem has been studied in the past in more realistic configurations than considered here, this approach is novel. By describing the equilibration in terms of the eddy redistribution of momentum some insight is gained on the role of the momentum balance for thermal homogenization at the surface and, more generally, on why three-dimensionality is important for the equilibration of the baroclinic jet. Part I of this series introduces the basic formalism and provides a reference framework in which to understand the three-dimensional equilibration. A simple geometric constraint is derived that implies that there is a limit to the reduction of the negative potential vorticity (PV) gradient by short modes, and this constraint is shown to apply to the equilibration of the 2D problem. The maintenance of the momentum balance in the forced-dissipative case is also discussed. This is very simple for the 2D problem, as there is a local balance between the eddy forcing of momentum (the PV flux) and the nonconservative forcing. This implies that, when the PV fluxes are everywhere downgradient, there must be a negative (positive) PV gradient over those regions in which the mean flow acceleration is westerly (easterly). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Horizontal Array Turbulence Study (HATS) field program utilized horizontal, crosswind arrays of sonic anemometers to calculate estimates of spatially filtered and subfilter-scale (SFS) turbulence, corresponding to its partitioning in large-eddy simulations (LESs) of atmospheric flows. Measurements were made over a wide range of atmospheric stability and for z/Δf nominally equal to 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0, where z is height and Δf is the width of the spatial filter. This paper examines the viability of the crosswind array technique by analyzing uncertainties in the filtered turbulence fields. Aliasing in the crosswind direction, caused by the discrete spacing of the sonic anemometers, is found to be minimal except for the spatially filtered vertical velocity and for SFS second moments. In those cases, aliasing errors become significant when the sonic spacing is greater than the wavelength at the peak in the crosswind spectrum of vertical velocity. Aliasing errors are estimated to be of a similar magnitude for the crosswind gradients of filtered variables. Surrogate streamwise filtering is performed by assuming Taylor's hypothesis and using the mean wind speed U to interpret sonic time series as spatial data. The actual turbulence advection velocity Uc is estimated from the cross correlation between data from HATS sonics separated in the streamwise direction. These estimates suggest that, for near-neutral stratification, the ratio Uc/U depends on the turbulence variable and is typically between 1.0 and 1.2. Analysis of LES turbulence fields for a neutrally stratified boundary layer finds that the correlation between the true spatially filtered SFS stress component τ13 and the same variable obtained with surrogate streamwise filtering exceeds 0.98 for z/Δf > 0.25. Within the limits noted, it is concluded that the horizontal array technique is sufficient for the estimation of resolved and SFS turbulence variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gravity-current models have been used for many years to describe the cold pools of low-level air that are generated by cumulonimbus precipitation. More recently, it has been realized that surface fluxes of heat and water vapor can be important in modifying these flows, through turbulent mixing of buoyancy by convection, and through direct modification of the cold pool buoyancy. In this paper, simple models describing the role of surface fluxes in depleting the negative buoyancy of a gravity current and the consequences of this for the flow dynamics are discussed. It is pointed out that the depletion of cold pool buoyancy by surface fluxes is analogous to the depletion of buoyancy in a turbidity current through particle sedimentation, and in one regime of parameter values the analogy is exact. This analogy allows one to use simple flow models that have been tested extensively against laboratory experiments on turbidity currents. A simple “box model” and a more sophisticated shallow water model are each developed. It is shown how these models can give relatively simple expressions for cold pool “runout length” and buoyancy distributions. These runout lengths compare well with maximum cold pool sizes previously observed in cloud-resolving model simulations of unorganized tropical deep convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an observational analysis of tropical cyclone landfall over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical cyclone that developed during the 2001 season off the Mexican coast was named Juliette and made landfall in the Baja California peninsula. Juliette approached land over the southwestern peninsula, and the evolution of a localized region of cyclonic circulation occurred over the Gulf of California. The storm passage was associated with extensive property damage to the population in the southern peninsula, with most of the damage caused by heavy rainfall and strong winds. The intensity of the circulation associated with Juliette indicates that this was a strong system in the record of landfall during the period 1992–2002. All available sources of observations are collected to investigate characteristics of the circulation motion and structure. In situ observations, including surface and upper-air data, are applied to document the evolution of storm flow while the center was located near and over the southern peninsula. Imagery from a geostationary satellite is used to determine characteristics of convective patterns. The analysis indicates development of distinct bands of deep convection and a period of slow system motion, which are related to large precipitation. Low-level winds are used to identify characteristics of the incident circulation along the Pacific coast. However, the nocturnal nature of the event and the lack of observations at critical times limit the attempts to explain how the incident circulation is associated with that observed over the gulf the next morning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]