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In a recent paper, Stuecker et al. applied a ‘‘combination mode’’ (C-mode) theory to explain the formation of the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) during El Niño events. The C-mode, arising from interaction between the annual cycle and ENSO, is an Indo-Pacific basin mode with two ‘‘near annual’’ time scales (roughly 10 and 15 months, respectively). This comment discusses to what extent the C-mode can explain the WNPAC dynamics. The major findings are the following: 1) spectral analysis of the Indo-Pacific circulation anomaly fields indicates that the 10-month mode is not observed and the 15-month mode is only seen in the western North Pacific (WNP), where its spectral peak is statistically insignificant; 2) the 15-month mode (with a period of 13–19 months) accounts for only a small portion (13%) of the observed sea level pressure anomaly in the WNP; and 3) the C-mode evolution does not capture the observed timing of the WNPAC onset in the northern fall of El Niño developing year. In addition it is shown, based on observational analyses and numerical experiments, that local atmosphere–ocean interaction plays an important role in formation of the anomalous anticyclonic center over the Philippine Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies operators inspired by the fluctuation-dissipation theorem that consider the seasonality (nonstationarity) of the climate system under conditions of limited sample size relevant to application of the method to observational records. The approach is used to predict the steady-state response of an atmospheric general circulation model to localized temperature perturbations. A seasonal operator nominally requires a much larger data sample than a stationary operator; the authors study some strategies to overcome this. First, two methods for approximating the seasonality of the system are examined. Second, an alternative 'transpose approach' to the standard dimension reduction is considered that is more efficient and accurate for small sample sizes and additionally enables the use of a kernel, which provides a convenient way to incorporate prior physical understanding into the operator. All operators show considerable skill in predicting seasonal responses for a variety of variables (temperature, winds, rainfall, and cloud cover) and better skill in predicting the annual-mean ones. A comparison of these predictions to ones done on the same system with temporally fixed boundary conditions shows unexpectedly that skill is, if anything, improved by the presence of a seasonal cycle. The authors suggest that the extra complexity due to a seasonal system is outweighed by the added information due to the seasonal forcing and the effect of seasonality in smoothing out prediction errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stationary and low-frequency Rossby waves are the primary drivers of extratropical weather variations on monthly and longer time scales. They take the form of persistent highs and lows, which, for example, shape subtropical dry zones and guide extratropical storms. More generally, stationary-eddy circulations, including zonally anomalous tropical overturning circulations, set up large zonal variations in net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation, P − E). This paper investigates the response of stationary eddies and the zonally asymmetric hydrological cycle to global warming in an idealized GCM, simulating a wide range of climates by varying longwave absorption. The stationary eddies are forced by two idealized zonal asymmetries: a midlatitude Gaussian mountain and an equatorial ocean heat source. Associated with changes in stationary eddies are changes in the zonal variation of the hydrological cycle. Particularly in the subtropics, these simulations show a nearly constant or decreasing amplitude of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle in climates warmer than modern despite the wet gets wetter, dry gets drier effect associated with increasing atmospheric moisture content. An approximation for zonally anomalous P − E, based on zonal-mean surface specific humidity and stationary-eddy vertical motion, disentangles the roles of thermodynamic and dynamic changes. The approximation shows that changes in the zonally asymmetric hydrological cycle are predominantly controlled by changes in lower-tropospheric vertical motion in stationary eddies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been suggested that changes in the atmospheric circulation caused by anthropogenic forcings are highly uncertain, owing to the large natural variability intrinsic to the system. Here, to assess the statistical significance of such changes for the midlatitude, large-scale atmospheric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere, a new 40-member ensemble of integrations, from 1920 to 2080, of the Community Earth System Model, version 5, is analyzed together with a companion 1800-yr-long preindustrial control integration of the same fully coupled model. For simplicity, only the latitudinal position and the strength of the zonal-mean eddy-driven jet are considered. Given the large year-to-year variability of these jet properties, this paper focuses on their decadal averages, which reflect the more slowly varying climate state. The analysis herein reveals that the forced response in such decadal averages easily emerges from the natural variability, with only a few model integrations typically needed to establish statistical significance. In particular, a forced summertime poleward shift of the jet in the latter part of the twentieth century and a strengthening of the jet during the twenty-first century in all seasons of the year are found. Contrasting these with changes in the southern annular mode, this confirms earlier studies demonstrating that such a mode is unable to distinguish different structural changes in the midlatitude jet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The processes responsible for double-peak latitudinal structures in the time-averaged tropical lower-stratospheric upwelling, centered near 70 hPa and 20°N/S, previously noted in ERA-Interim and other reanalysis and model datasets, are considered. It is demonstrated that the structure of the wave force resolved by ERA-Interim consistently balances the angular momentum transport associated with the double peak. Analysis of the corresponding structures in diabatic heating rates from ERA-Interim indicates that the peaks arise predominantly from the meridional structure in ozone concentrations and the associated absorption of both shortwave and longwave radiation. Additional smaller contributions arise from local absorption of longwave radiation emitted from the relatively warm layers above and below, as well as from cloud-related radiative effects and nonradiative diabatic heating. The temperature at 70 hPa is slightly higher near 20°N/S than at the equator, opposite of what would be expected if the latitudinal structure in radiative heating were associated with local relaxation. It is proposed on the basis of this analysis that the primary cause of the peaks in upwelling is the externally imposed (i.e., nonrelaxational) part of the radiative heating field. The dynamical plausibility of this hypothesis is investigated in a companion paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between n = 0 mixed Rossby-gravity waves (MRGs) and eastward inertio-gravity waves (EIGs) from Matsuno's shallow-water theory on an equatorial beta plane is studied using statistics of satellite brightness temperature T b and dynamical fields from ERA-Interim data. Unlike other observed convectively coupled equatorial waves, which have spectral signals well separated into eastward and westward modes, there is a continuum of MRG-EIG power standing above the background that peaks near wavenumber 0. This continuum is also present in the signals of dry stratospheric MRGs. While hundreds of papers have been written on MRGs, very little work on EIGs has appeared in the literature to date. The authors attribute this to the fact that EIG circulations are much weaker than those of MRGs for a given amount of divergence, making them more difficult to observe even though they strongly modulate convection. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and cross-spectral analysis of 2-6-day-filtered T b isolate zonally standing modes of synoptic-scale convection originally identified by Wallace in 1971. These display antisymmetric T b signals about the equator that propagate poleward with a period of around 4 days, along with westward-propagating MRG-like circulations that move through the T b patterns. Further analysis here and in Part II shows that these signatures are not artifacts of the EOF approach but result from a mixture of MRG or EIG modes occurring either in isolation or at the same time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of the atmosphere to zonally symmetric applied heating and mechanical forcing is considered, allowing for the fact that the response may include a change in the wave force (or 'wave drag'). A scaling argument shows that an applied zonally symmetric heating is effective in driving a steady meridional circulation provided that the wave force (required to satisfy angular momentum constraints) is sufficiently sensitive to changes in the mean flow in the sense that the ratio is large, where K is a measure of the sensitivity of the wave force; α, N, and f are the radiative damping rate, buoyancy frequency, and Coriolis parameter, respectively; and and are the horizontal and vertical length scales of the heating, respectively. Furthermore, in the 'narrow heating' regime where this ratio is large, the structure of the meridional circulation response is only weakly dependent on the details of the wave force. The scaling arguments are verified by experiments in a dry dynamical circulation model. Consistent with the scaling prediction, the regime does not apply when the width of the imposed heating is increased. The narrow-heating regime is demonstrated to be relevant to the double peak in tropical lower-stratospheric upwelling considered in a companion paper, supporting the hypothesis that this feature is radiatively driven. Similar arguments are applied to show that a narrow zonally symmetric applied mechanical forcing is primarily balanced by a change in wave force. This provides an explanation for the recently identified compensation between resolved and parameterized waves in driving modeled trends in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

EUMETSAT has been deriving atmospheric motion vectors (AMV) operationally from the EUMETSAT Polar System satellite MetOp over polar regions since 2011. The launch of MetOp-B in 2012 permitted doubling the frequency of extracting AMVs using AVHRR imagery data of both MetOp-A and -B satellites. The tandem configuration with two satellites on the same orbital plane, but with a phase difference, provided an interesting opportunity to create global AMVs from the satellites with a significant overlap in imagery data. EUMETSAT has therefore developed a new global AVHRR winds product derived from a pair of MetOp-A and MetOp-B images that has been operational since January 2015. The temporal gap between the two images used for tracking clouds is about 50 min. The global coverage of this new wind product allows for a homogeneous retrieval of wind product over the whole globe, including the polar regions. This clearly helps fill the gaps between 55° and 70° latitude north and south, where only few wind observations are currently available for assimilation into numerical weather prediction models. The new global AVHRR wind product can be directly compared with AMVs derived from geostationary satellites. This paper describes the scientific concept of wind extraction using dual MetOp satellites. It highlights the performance of the new global AVHRR wind product by comparing with collocated AMVs extracted from the EUMETSAT geostationary satellites Meteosat-7 and Meteosat-10. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the second part of a two-part paper that addresses deterministic roles of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) in variations of atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, using a sequence of idealized model runs at the spring equinox conditions. This part focuses on the effect of the SST anomalies on North American precipitation. Major results show that, in the model setting closest to the real-world situation, a warm SST anomaly in the North Atlantic Ocean causes suppressed precipitation in central, western, and northern North America but more precipitation in the southeast. A nearly reversed pattern of precipitation anomalies develops in response to the cold SST anomaly. Further examinations of these solutions reveal that the response to the cold SST anomaly is less stable than that to the warm SST anomaly. The former is 'dynamically charged' in the sense that positive eddy kinetic energy (EKE) exists over the continent. The lack of precipitation in its southeast is because of an insufficient moisture supply. In addition, the results show that the EKE of the short- (2-6 day) and medium-range (7-10 day) weather-producing processes in North America have nearly opposite signs in response to the same cold SST anomaly. These competing effects of eddies in the dynamically charged environment (elevated sensitivity to moisture) complicate the circulation and precipitation responses to the cold SST anomaly in the North Atlantic and may explain why the model results show more varying precipitation anomalies (also confirmed by statistical test results) during the cold than the warm SST anomaly, as also shown in simulations with more realistic models. Results of this study indicate a need to include the AMO in the right context with other forcings in an effort to improve understanding of interannual-to-multidecadal variations in warm season precipitation in North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A physically based method for parameterizing the role of subgrid-scale turbulence in the production and maintenance of supercooled liquid water and mixed-phase clouds is presented. The approach used is to simplify the dynamics of supersaturation fluctuations to a stochastic differential equation that can be solved analytically, giving increments to the prognostic liquid cloud fraction and liquid water content fields in a general circulation model (GCM). Elsewhere, it has been demonstrated that the approach captures the properties of decameter-resolution large-eddy simulations of a turbulent mixed-phase environment. In this paper, it is shown that it can be implemented in a GCM, and the effects that this has on Southern Ocean biases and on Arctic stratus are investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of the geography of a narrow valley and surrounding tall mountains, Cache Valley (located in northern Utah and southern Idaho) experiences frequent shallow temperature inversions that are both intense and persistent. Such temperature inversions have resulted in the worst air quality in the nation. In this paper, the historical properties of Cache Valley's winter inversions are examined by using two meteorological stations with a difference in elevation of approximately 100 m and a horizontal distance apart of ~4.5 km. Differences in daily maximum air temperature between two stations were used to define the frequency and intensity of inversions. Despite the lack of a long-term trend in inversion intensity from 1956 to present, the inversion frequency increased in the early 1980s and extending into the early 1990s but thereafter decreased by about 30% through 2013. Daily mean air temperatures and inversion intensity were categorized further using a mosaic plot. Of relevance was the discovery that after 1990 there was an increase in the probability of inversions during cold days and that under conditions in which the daily mean air temperature was below −15°C an inversion became a certainty. A regression model was developed to estimate the concentration of past particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5). The model indicated past episodes of increased PM2.5 concentrations that went into decline after 1990; this was especially so in the coldest of climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) have been produced for decades and remain an important source of wind information. Many studies have suggested that the traditional interpretation of AMVs as representative of the wind at cloud top is suboptimal and that they are more representative of the winds within the cloud. This paper investigates the vertical representativity of cloudy AMVs using both first-guess departure [observation − background ( O − B)] statistics and the simulation-study technique. A state-of-the-art convection-permitting mesoscale model ('UKV') is used in conjunction with a radiative transfer model and the Nowcasting Satellite Application Facility (NWCSAF) AMV package to produce synthetic AMVs over a 1-month period. The simulated upper-level AMVs suffered from large height-assignment errors uncharacteristic of those in reality; these issues were partially alleviated by using the model cloud top instead of the assigned height. In agreement with previous studies, both the simulated and real AMVs were found to have the closest fit to a layer mean of the model winds with the majority of the layer below the estimated cloud top. However, improvements in the fit between the AMVs and the model were also found by simply lowering the assigned height. A short NWP trial hinted that height reassignment might lead to short-range forecast improvements. The results of this study indicate that the simulation technique was able to match the usefulness of O − B statistics for AMVs associated with low- and medium-level clouds (albeit at a higher computational cost); however, challenges remain in the simulation of upper-level clouds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the reality of anthropogenic global warming, it is tempting to seek an anthropogenic component in any recent change in the statistics of extreme weather. This paper cautions that such efforts may, however, lead to wrong conclusions if the distinctively skewed and heavy-tailed aspects of the probability distributions of daily weather anomalies are ignored or misrepresented. Departures of several standard deviations from the mean, although rare, are far more common in such a distinctively non-Gaussian world than they are in a Gaussian world. This further complicates the problem of detecting changes in tail probabilities from historical records of limited length and accuracy. A possible solution is to exploit the fact that the salient non-Gaussian features of the observed distributions are captured by so-called stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distributions that include Gaussian distributions as special cases. SGS distributions are associated with damped linear Markov processes perturbed by asymmetric stochastic noise and as such represent the simplest physically based prototypes of the observed distributions. The tails of SGS distributions can also be directly linked to generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GP) distributions. The Markov process model can be used to provide rigorous confidence intervals and to investigate temporal persistence statistics. The procedure is illustrated for assessing changes in the observed distributions of daily wintertime indices of large-scale atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic and North Pacific sectors over the period 1872-2011. No significant changes in these indices are found from the first to the second half of the period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamical models of organized mesoscale convective systems have identified the important features that help maintain their overarching structure and longevity. The standard model is the trailing stratiform archetype, featuring a front-to-rear ascending circulation, a mesoscale downdraft circulation, and a cold pool/density current that affects the propagation speed and the maintenance of the system. However, this model does not represent all types of mesoscale convective systems, especially in moist environments where the evaporation-driven cold pools are weak and the convective inhibition is small. Moreover, questions remain about the role of gravity waves in creating and maintaining organized systems and affecting their propagation speed. This study presents simulations and dynamical models of self-organizing convection in a moist, low-convective inhibition environment and examines the long-lived convective regimes that emerge spontaneously. This paper, which is Part I of this study, specifically examines the structure, kinematics, and maintenance of long-lived, upshear-propagating convective systems that differ in important respects from the standard model of long-lived convective systems. Linear theory demonstrates the role of ducted gravity waves in maintaining the long-lived, upshear-propagating systems. A steady nonlinear model approximates the dynamics of upshear-propagating density currents that are key to the maintenance of the mesoscale convective system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric superrotation with prograde equatorial winds and an equatorial angular momentum maximum is ubiquitous in planetary atmospheres. It is clear that eddy fluxes of angular momentum toward the equator are necessary to generate it. But under what conditions superrotation arises has remained unclear. This paper presents simulations and a scaling theory that establish conditions under which superrotation occurs in terrestrial atmospheres. Whether superrotation arises depends on the relative importance of factors that favor or disfavor superrotation. Convection preferentially generates Rossby waves near the equator, where the Rossby number is O(1). Since the Rossby waves transport angular momentum toward their source regions, this favors superrotation. Meridional temperature gradients preferentially lead to baroclinic instability and wave generation away from the equator. Eddy transport of angular momentum toward the baroclinic source region implies transport out of low latitudes, which disfavors superrotation. Simulations with an idealized GCM show that superrotation tends to arise when the equatorial convective generation of wave activity and its associated eddy angular momentum flux convergence exceed the baroclinic eddy angular momentum flux divergence. Convective and baroclinic wave activity generation is related through scaling arguments to mean-flow properties, such as planetary rotation rates and meridional temperature gradients. The scaling arguments show, for example, that superrotation is favored when the off-equatorial baroclinicity and planetary rotation rates are low, as they are, for example, on Venus. Similarly, superrotation is favored when the convective heating strengthens, which may account for the superrotation seen in extreme global warming simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parameterizing deep convection at model resolutions of a few kilometers or less requires diverging from several simplifying assumptions valid at coarser resolutions. The separation or complementarity between the deep-convection scheme and the model cloud scheme must be addressed properly to prevent a double counting of some phenomena, account for evolution in time, and keep consistent results while approaching resolutions where deep convection can be treated explicitly (without parameterization). In this paper, the author formulates and tests a perturbation approach of the bulk mass-flux representation of deep convective updrafts and downdrafts. The subgrid deep-convection scheme represents only the effect of the unresolved part of the real updrafts, complementing an explicit part associated with the mean gridbox vertical velocity. Special attention is paid to the ordering and interactions of the moist parameterizations, the formulation of the closure and of the triggering, and the accounting of time evolution aspects. The multiresolution behavior of the scheme is assessed in the operational numerical prediction model ALARO [a version of the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle-Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International (ARPEGE-ALADIN) operational limited area model with a revised and modular structure of the physical parameterizations]. Unlike most mass-flux schemes, the parameterized part gradually fades out when the model resolution is increased, allowing the results to approach those of an explicit treatment of deep convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physical mechanisms and predictability associated with extreme daily rainfall in southeastern South America (SESA) are investigated for the December-February season in a two-part study. Through a k-mean analysis, this first paper identifies a robust set of daily circulation regimes that are used to link the frequency of rainfall extreme events with large-scale potential predictors at subseasonal-to-seasonal scales. This represents a basic set of daily circulation regimes related to the continental and oceanic phases of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and wave train patterns superimposed on the Southern Hemisphere polar jet. Some of these recurrent synoptic circulation types are conducive to extreme rainfall events in the region through synoptic control of different mesoscale physical features and, at the same time, are influenced by climate phenomena that could be used as sources of potential predictability. Extremely high rainfall (as measured by the 95th and 99th percentiles) is associated with two of these weather types (WTs), which are characterized by moisture advection intrusions from lower latitudes and the Pacific Ocean; another three WTs, characterized by above-normal moisture advection toward lower latitudes or the Andes, are associated with dry days (days with no rain). The analysis permits the identification of several subseasonal-to-seasonal scale potential predictors that modulate the occurrence of circulation regimes conducive to extreme rainfall events in SESA. It is conjectured that a cross-time scale interaction between the different climate drivers improves the predictive skill of extreme precipitation in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the seasonal dependence of the effect of Arctic greening on tropical precipitation. In CAM3/CLM3 coupled to a mixed layer ocean, shrub and grasslands poleward of 60°N are replaced with boreal forests. With darker Arctic vegetation, the absorption of solar energy increases, but primarily in boreal spring and summer since little insolation reaches the Arctic in boreal winter. The net energy input into the northern extratropics is partly balanced by southward atmospheric energy transport across the equator by an anomalous Hadley circulation, resulting in a northward shift of the tropical precipitation. In contrast, in boreal fall, the slight increase in insolation over the Arctic is more than offset by increased outgoing longwave radiation and reduced surface turbulent fluxes in midlatitudes, from the warmer atmosphere. As a result, the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere loses energy, which is compensated by a northward cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport, leading to a southward shift of the tropical precipitation in boreal fall. Thus, although Arctic vegetation is changed throughout the year, its effect on tropical precipitation exhibits substantial seasonal variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extraction of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) from cloud and moisture features from successive geostationary satellite images is an established and important data source for numerical weather prediction (NWP). So far the extraction of AMVs has been confined to the main synoptic times only, which grossly underutilizes the potential of these satellite-derived data. The advent of four-dimensional variational assimilation techniques provides the opportunity to utilize data derived at asynoptic times. This will enhance the capabilities of geostationary satellite systems that can provide continuous and near-real time observations. The new assimilation schemes are able to digest data representing various scales and with variable quality, which further enhances the usefulness of the satellite data. In order to fully exploit the AMVs derived with satellite data, it is imperative to accurately assess the quality and representativeness of individual wind vectors and to provide this information to the NWP centers as an integral part of the observations in near real time. The required high production and dissemination frequency cannot be met if manual intervention is required; hence, the emphasis has to be on fully automated schemes. This paper will describe the automatic quality control scheme implemented at EUMETSAT. It is based on the statistical properties of the derived AMVs and it provides a quality indicator (QI), describing the expected quality of every individual vector. The derived QIs are currently disseminated together with the derived vectors. The paper will also provide validation results based on collocated radiosonde statistics and report on first experiences by ECMWF in utilizing the QIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recently published paper, spherical nonparametric estimators were applied to feature-track ensembles to determine a range of statistics for the atmospheric features considered. This approach obviates the types of bias normally introduced with traditional estimators. New spherical isotropic kernels with local support were introduced. In this paper the extension to spherical nonisotropic kernels with local support is introduced, together with a means of obtaining the shape and smoothing parameters in an objective way. The usefulness of spherical nonparametric estimators based on nonisotropic kernels is demonstrated with an application to an oceanographic feature-track ensemble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ten of the most common radiosondes used throughout the world since 1960 have been evaluated concerning potential use of their temperature data for climate studies. The VIZ; Space Data Corp.; Chinese GZZ; Japanese RS2-80; Russian RKZ, MARS, and A-22; and Vaisala RS80, RS 12/15, and RS18/21 radiosondes were evaluated by modeling the temperature of the sensing element relative to the temperature of the air in which it is immersed. The difference, designated as the temperature error, was calculated under various environmental conditions. Validation and sensitivity analysis studies were performed on each radiosonde model as a means of estimating the environmental parameters that influence the temperature error and the resulting accuracy of the day and nighttime temperature profiles. Environmental parameters to which some sondes were sensitive include cloud cover, surface temperature, solar angle, ambient temperature profile, blackbody temperature, and the ventilation velocity. The ventilation velocity was found to depend strongly on the position of the sensor in the balloon wake. It is believed that the results of these analyses provide the best guidelines available to anyone wishing to perform climate studies using radiosonde data. The research work presented in this paper indicates that climate trends can currently be estimated with a subset of the worldwide upper-air data. Trends can be calculated for monthly averaged, nighttime soundings with some confidence for the Vaisala RS80 (models not using the RSN80 and RSN86 corrections), Vaisala RS 12/15, Vaisala RS 18/21, Chinese GZZ (below 25 km), Russian RKZ, Russian MARS, and Russian A-22 (below 20 km) radiosonde models. The analysis presented in this paper shows that all of the above radiosondes have small errors in individual radiosonde soundings at night (< ±1°C) and the errors of the monthly averaged data are estimated to be less than ±0.5°C, except for the A-22 (±0.8 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 16 May 1995, a supercell storm produced an F1 tornado near Garden City, Kansas, during VORTEX (Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment). This event provided the first opportunity to synthesize data collected by a new airborne radar platform called ELDORA (Electra Doppler radar) developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The evolution of the low- and midlevel mesocyclone was presented in a companion paper. In this paper, the sequence of events that triggered tornadogenesis within the mesocyclone circulation is shown. The occlusion downdraft, documented in Part I, appears to promote "vortex breakdown" resulting in the generation of multiple vorticity centers. It is one of these centers that intensifies into the Garden City tornado. The structural relationship between the observed wall cloud and the radar reflectivity associated with the developing hook echo and the kinematic wind field is also presented. Although the wall cloud appears to be uniform there are pronounced asymmetries in the echo and ground-relative flow fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding non-Gaussian statistics of atmospheric synoptic and low-frequency variability has important consequences in the atmospheric sciences, not least because weather and climate risk assessment depends on knowing and understanding the exact shape of the system's probability density function. While there is no doubt that many atmospheric variables exhibit non-Gaussian statistics on many time (and spatial) scales, a full and complete understanding of this phenomenon remains a challenge. Various mechanisms behind the observed atmospheric non-Gaussian statistics have been proposed but remain, however, multifaceted and scattered in the literature: nonlinear dynamics, multiplicative noise, cross-frequency coupling, nonlinear boundary layer drag, and others. Given the importance of this subject for weather and climate research, and in an attempt to contribute to this topic, a thorough review and discussion of the different mechanisms that lead to non-Gaussian weather and climate variability are presented in this paper and an outlook is given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is now acknowledged that representing model uncertainty in atmospheric simulators is essential for the production of reliable probabilistic forecasts, and a number of different techniques have been proposed for this purpose. This paper presents new perturbed parameter schemes for use in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) convection scheme. Two types of scheme are developed and implemented. Both schemes represent the joint uncertainty in four of the parameters in the convection parameterization scheme, which was estimated using the Ensemble Prediction and Parameter Estimation System (EPPES). The first scheme developed is a fixed perturbed parameter scheme, where the values of uncertain parameters are varied between ensemble members, but held constant over the duration of the forecast. The second is a stochastically varying perturbed parameter scheme. The performance of these schemes was compared to the ECMWF operational stochastic scheme, stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT), and to a model that does not represent uncertainty in convection. The skill of probabilistic forecasts made using the different models was evaluated. While the perturbed parameter schemes improve on the stochastic parameterization in some regards, the SPPT scheme outperforms the perturbed parameter approaches when considering forecast variables that are particularly sensitive to convection. Overall, SPPT schemes are the most skillful representations of model uncertainty owing to convection parameterization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical simulations of atmospheric circulation models are limited by their finite spatial resolution, so large-eddy simulation (LES) is a preferred approach to study these models. In LES, a low-pass filter is applied to the flow field to separate the large- and small-scale motions. In implicitly filtered LES, the computational mesh and discretization schemes are considered to be the low-pass filter, while in the explicitly filtered LES approach, the filtering procedure is separated from the grid and discretization operators and allows for better control of the numerical errors. The aim of this paper is to study and compare implicitly filtered and explicitly filtered LES of atmospheric circulation models in spectral space. To achieve this goal, the results of implicitly filtered and explicitly filtered LES of a barotropic atmosphere circulation model on a sphere in spectral space are presented and compared with the results obtained from direct numerical simulation (DNS). Different numerical experiments are performed to investigate the efficiency of explicit filtering over implicit filtering under different dissipation terms and rotation rates. The study shows that explicit filtering increases the accuracy of the computations and improves the results, particularly where the location of coherent structures is concerned, a topic of particular importance in LES of atmospheric flows for climate and weather applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the impact of anomalous northward oceanic heat transport on global climate in a slab ocean setting. To that end, the GCM LMDZ5A of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique is coupled to a slab ocean, with realistic zonal asymmetries and seasonal cycle. Two simulations with different anomalous surface heating are imposed: 1) uniform heating over the North Atlantic basin and 2) concentrated heating in the Gulf Stream region, with a compensating uniform cooling in the Southern Ocean in both cases. The magnitudes of the heating and of the implied northward interhemispheric heat transport are within the range of current natural variability. Both simulations show global effects that are particularly strong in the tropics, with a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) toward the heating anomalies. This shift is accompanied by a northward shift of the storm tracks in both hemispheres. From the comparison between the two simulations with different anomalous surface heating in the North Atlantic, it emerges that the global climate response is nearly insensitive to the spatial distribution of the heating. The cloud response acts as a large positive feedback on the oceanic forcing, mainly because of the low-cloud-induced shortwave anomalies in the extratropics. While previous literature has speculated that the extratropical Q flux may impact the tropics by the way of the transient eddy fluxes, it is explicitly demonstrated here. In the midlatitudes, the authors find a systematic northward shift of the jets, as well as of the associated Ferrel cells, storm tracks, and precipitation bands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the physical processes controlling how synoptic midlatitude temperature variability near the surface changes with climate. Because synoptic temperature variability is primarily generated by advection, it can be related to mean potential temperature gradients and mixing lengths near the surface. Scaling arguments show that the reduction of meridional potential temperature gradients that accompanies polar amplification of global warming leads to a reduction of the synoptic temperature variance near the surface. This is confirmed in simulations of a wide range of climates with an idealized GCM. In comprehensive climate simulations (CMIP5), Arctic amplification of global warming similarly entails a large-scale reduction of the near-surface temperature variance in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, especially in winter. The probability density functions of synoptic near-surface temperature variations in midlatitudes are statistically indistinguishable from Gaussian, both in reanalysis data and in a range of climates simulated with idealized and comprehensive GCMs. This indicates that changes in mean values and variances suffice to account for changes even in extreme synoptic temperature variations. Taken together, the results indicate that Arctic amplification of global warming leads to even less frequent cold outbreaks in Northern Hemisphere winter than a shift toward a warmer mean climate implies by itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how atmospheric circulation and orography affect the spatial variability of extreme precipitation in terms of depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curve parameters. To this aim, the Italian territory was considered because it is characterized by a complex orography and different precipitation dynamics and regimes. A database of 1494 time series with more than 20 years of maximum annual precipitation data was collected for the durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h. For each data series, the parameters of DDF curves were estimated using a statistical simple scale invariance model. Hence, the combined effect of orography and atmospheric fields on parameter variability was investigated considering the spatial distribution of the parameters and their relation with elevation. The vertically integrated atmospheric moisture flux J was used as a measurement of the principal direction of the vapor transport at a given location. The analysis highlights the variability of DDF parameters and quantiles according to orography and precipitation climatology. This is confirmed by the evaluation of J modal direction over the study area. The variability of DDF parameters with mere elevation shows that maxima at high elevations seem to be upper bounded and more variable than those at lower elevations. Moreover, the mean of maximum annual precipitation of unit duration decreases with elevation. This last phenomenon is defined as 'reverse orographic effect' on extreme precipitation of short durations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the sparse space-time superparameterization (SSTSP) algorithm and evaluates its ability to represent interactions between moist convection and the large-scale circulation in the context of a Walker cell flow over a planetary scale two-dimensional domain. The SSTSP represents convective motions in each column of the large-scale model by embedding a cloud-resolving model, and relies on a sparse sampling in both space and time to reduce computational cost of explicit simulation of convective processes. Simulations are performed varying the spatial compression and/or temporal acceleration, and results are compared to the cloud-resolving simulation reported previously. The algorithm is able to reproduce a broad range of circulation features for all temporal accelerations and spatial compressions, but significant biases are identified. Precipitation tends to be too intense and too localized over warm waters when compared to the cloud-resolving simulations. It is argued that this is because coherent propagation of organized convective systems from one large-scale model column to another is difficult when superparameterization is used, as noted in previous studies. The Walker cell in all simulations exhibits low-frequency variability on a time scale of about 20 days, characterized by four distinctive stages: suppressed, intensification, active, and weakening. The SSTSP algorithm captures spatial structure and temporal evolution of the variability. This reinforces the confidence that SSTSP preserves fundamental interactions between convection and the large-scale flow, and offers a computationally efficient alternative to traditional convective parameterizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines spiral rainbands in a numerical simulation of Hurricane Bill (2009). This paper, the first part of the study, evaluates the structures of spiral rainbands and compares them to previous observations. Four types of spiral rainbands are identified: principal, secondary, distant, and inner rainbands. Principal rainbands tend to be stationary relative to the storm center, while secondary rainbands are more transient and move around the storm center. Both principal and secondary rainbands are tilted radially outward with height and have many of the commonly observed kinematic features, such as overturning secondary circulation and enhanced tangential velocity on their radially outward sides. Principal rainbands are bounded by very dry air on their radially outward sides. Distant rainbands are radially inward-tilting convective features that have dense cold pools near the surface. Inner rainbands are made of shallow convection that appears to have originated from near the eyewall. Differences in the structures of spiral rainbands between observations and the Hurricane Bill simulation are noted. The second part of the study investigates how inner rainbands propagate and makes comparison with previously proposed hypotheses such as vortex Rossby waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the off-equatorial region of Jupiter's and Saturn's atmospheres, baroclinic eddies transport angular momentum out of retrograde and into prograde jets. In a statistically steady state, this angular momentum transfer by eddies must be balanced by dissipation, likely produced by magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) drag in the planetary interior. This paper examines systematically how an idealized representation of this drag in a general circulation model (GCM) of the upper atmosphere of giant planets modifies jet characteristics, the angular momentum budget, and the energy budget. In the GCM, Rayleigh drag at an artificial lower boundary (with mean pressure of 3 bar) is used as a simple representation of the MHD drag that the flow on giant planets experiences at depth. As the drag coefficient decreases, the eddy length scale and eddy kinetic energy increase, as they do in studies of two-dimensional turbulence. Off-equatorial jets become wider and stronger, with increased interjet spacing. Coherent vortices also become more prevalent. Generally, the jet width scales with the Rhines scale, which is of similar magnitude as the Rossby radius in the simulations. The jet strength increases primarily through strengthening of the barotropic component, which increases as the drag coefficient decreases because the overall kinetic energy dissipation remains roughly constant. The overall kinetic energy dissipation remains roughly constant presumably because it is controlled by baroclinic conversion of potential to kinetic energy in the upper troposphere, which is mainly determined by the differential solar radiation and is only weakly dependent on bottom drag and barotropic flow variations. For Jupiter and Saturn, these results suggest that the wider and stronger jets on Saturn may arise because the MHD drag on Saturn is weaker than on Jupiter, while the thermodynamic efficiencies of the atmospheres are not sensitive to the drag parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new method to properly define and accurately determine the vortex center of a model-predicted tropical cyclone (TC) from a dynamic perspective. Ideally, a dynamically determined TC vortex center should maximize the gradient wind balance or, equivalently, minimize the gradient wind imbalance measured by an energy norm over the TC vortex. In practice, however, such an energy norm cannot be used to easily and unambiguously determine the TC vortex center. An alternative yet practical approach is developed to dynamically and unambiguously define the TC vortex center. In this approach, the TC vortex core of near-solid-body rotation is modeled by a simple parametric vortex constrained by the gradient wind balance. Therefore, the modeled vortex can fit simultaneously the perturbation pressure and streamfunction of the TC vortex part (extracted from the model-predicted fields) over the TC vortex core area (within the radius of maximum tangential wind), while the misfit is measured by a properly defined cost function. Minimizing this cost function yields the desired dynamic optimality condition that can uniquely define the TC vortex center. Using this dynamic optimality condition, a new method is developed in the form of iterative least squares fit to accurately determine the TC vortex center. The new method is shown to be efficient and effective for finding the TC vortex center that accurately satisfies the dynamic optimality condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT) has been proposed as a method of calculating the mean response of the atmosphere to small external perturbations. This paper explores the application of the theory under time and space constraints that approximate realistic conditions. To date, most applications of the theory in the climate context used univariate, low-dimensional-state representations of the climate system and an arbitrarily long sample size. The authors explore high-dimensional multivariate FDT operators and the lower bounds of sample size needed to construct skillful operators. It is shown that the skill of the operator depends on the selection of variables and features representing the climate system and that these features change once memory (slab ocean) is added to the system. In addition, it is found that the FDT operator has skill in estimating the response to realistic sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), despite the fact that these patterns were not part of the data used to produce the operator. The response of clouds is also studied; for variables that represent cloud properties, the decrease in skill in relation to decrease in sample size still maintains the key features of the response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines changes in the strength of the Walker circulation (WC) using the pressure difference between the western and eastern equatorial Pacific. Changes in observations and in 35 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) are determined. On the one hand, 78% of the models show a weakening of the WC over the twentieth century, consistent with the observations and previous studies using CMIP phase 3 (CMIP3) models. However, the observations also exhibit a strengthening in the last three decades (i.e., from 1980 to 2012) that is statistically significant at the 95% level. The models, on the other hand, show no consensus on the sign of change, and none of the models shows a statistically significant strengthening over the same period. While the reasons for the inconsistency between models and observations is not fully understood, it is shown that the ability of the models to generate trends as large as the observed from internal variability is reduced because most models have weaker than observed levels of both multidecadal variability and persistence of interannual variability in WC strength. In the twenty-first-century future projections, the WC weakens in 25 out of 35 models, under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 9 out of 11 models under RCP6.0, 16 out of 18 models under RCP4.5, and 12 out of 15 models under RCP2.6. The projected decrease is also consistent with results obtained previously using models from CMIP3. However, as the reasons for the inconsistency between modeled and observed trends in the last three decades are not fully understood, confidence in the model projections is reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropospheric circulation shifts have strong potential to impact surface climate. However, the magnitude of these shifts in a changing climate and the attending regional hydrological changes are difficult to project. Part of this difficulty arises from the lack of understanding of the physical mechanisms behind the circulation shifts themselves. To better delineate circulation shifts and their respective causes the circulation response is decomposed into 1) the 'direct' response to radiative forcings themselves and 2) the 'indirect' response to changing sea surface temperatures. Using ensembles of 90-day climate model simulations with immediate switch-on forcings, including perturbed greenhouse gas concentrations, stratospheric ozone concentrations, and sea surface temperatures, this paper documents the direct and indirect transient responses of the zonal-mean general circulation, and investigates the roles of previously proposed mechanisms in shifting the midlatitude jet. It is found that both the direct and indirect wind responses often begin in the lower stratosphere. Changes in midlatitude eddies are ubiquitous and synchronous with the midlatitude zonal wind response. Shifts in the critical latitude of wave absorption on either flank of the jet are not indicted as primary factors for the poleward-shifting jet, although some evidence for increasing equatorward wave reflection over the Southern Hemisphere in response to sea surface warming is seen. Mechanisms for the Northern Hemisphere jet shift are less clear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The early season rainfall (ESR) over southern China, usually occurring from April to June, is a prominent meteorological phenomenon of the East Asian monsoon system. In this paper, output from the 45-day hindcast by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and various observational datasets are analyzed to assess the predictability of the ESR and associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that CFSv2 can successfully predict the ESR and associated circulation patterns over southern China. The lower-tropospheric convergence and upper-tropospheric divergence as well as the local upward motion over southern China lead to the formation of ESR. Analysis of bias shows small differences and close relationships between the predicted and observed ESR values when the forecast lead time is less than 2 weeks. The skill in the ESR predictions by CFSv2 decreases significantly when the lead time is longer than 2 weeks. Overall, CFSv2 has a higher level of skill when predicting the southern China ESR compared to the rainfall over other Asian regions during the same period of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the summer, strong surface heating combines with the terrain and land-water contrasts of the northwest United States to create a complex array of diurnal circulations. Though observational and modeling studies have described some of these circulations, advances in high-resolution numerical modeling allow for a more comprehensive and three-dimensional examination. To simulate typical summer conditions over the Pacific Northwest, 3-hourly Global Forecast System (GFS) model output for July and August 2009-11 was used to initialize and provide boundary conditions for a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model run. To ensure the realism of the simulation, it was compared to observations from a collection of days representing typical summer conditions. Generally, it was found that the simulated diurnal wind, relative humidity, and temperature were close to the observations. It is shown that regional diurnal circulations over the Pacific Northwest occur on a number of interacting scales, ranging from upslope/downslope winds on local terrain features to larger-scale circulations such as between the Pacific Ocean and the western Oregon and Washington interiors. Such multiscale diurnal circulations occur concurrently, with the interactions producing complex structures, several of which are described in this paper. Wind speeds in the Strait of Juan de Fuca and downstream of the major Cascade Mountain gaps reach maxima between 2100 and 2400 local daylight time (LDT), while most other areas have peak winds earlier in the day. Localized nocturnal low-level wind maxima are described, including one over the northern Willamette Valley and another over the high plateau of eastern Oregon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of physical forcing mechanisms that contribute to the decay of winter North Atlantic extratropical cyclones during the period 1979-2009 are examined using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The paired Zwack-Okossi tendency equation and omega equation explained in part I of this paper is employed to investigate the total effects of forcing processes (the direct effect of the forcing mechanisms and the indirect effect of the induced adiabatic cooling) that dissipate the 950-hPa cyclonic geostrophic vorticity at the cyclone center. Composite analyses reveal that the commencement of the decay is associated mainly with the upper-level anticyclonic vorticity advection, cold-air advection, and positive ageostrophic vorticity tendency. The secondary contributor to the dissipation of cyclonic circulation is the lower-tropospheric adiabatic cooling induced mainly by friction and positive ageostrophic vorticity tendency. The dynamics is found to be different at the beginning of the decay than in the later stages. While the negative tilt of troughs aloft and the surface cyclone is required for cyclolysis to occur, low air processes show a greater effect in the termination of the low pressure systems. Further, the total effect of the vorticity advection and temperature advection terms are modest, while the ageostrophic vorticity tendency and friction terms show a greater total negative contribution. This is because the two latter terms decrease the cyclonic geostrophic vorticity at the low center through both their direct and indirect effects. The latent heat release maximizing at 800-700 hPa produces cyclonic circulation, thus reducing the spindown of decaying cyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the interaction processes between mesoscale convective systems (MCS), the tropical easterly jet (TEJ), and the African easterly jet (AEJ) over West Africa during the monsoon peak of 2006 observed during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) project. The results highlight the importance of the cloud system localization relative to the jets in order to explain their duration and life cycle. A systematical study reveals that intense and long-lived MCSs correspond to a particular pattern where clouds associated with deep convection are located in entrance regions of TEJ and in exit regions of AEJ. A case study on a particularly well-documented convective event characterizes this link and infers the importance of jet streaks in promoting areas of divergence, favoring the persistence of MCSs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports a comprehensive diagnostic analysis of mass and angular momentum (AM) circulations and their budgets in boreal winter using the 32-yr daily NCEP-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis (1979-2010). The diagnosis is performed using instantaneous total flows before taking time and zonal average without decomposition of time mean and transient flows and separation of zonal mean and wavy flows. The analysis reveals that embedded in a broad hemispheric thermally direct meridional mass circulation in each hemisphere are three distinct but interconnected thermally direct meridional cells. They are the tropical Hadley cell, the stratospheric cell, and the extratropical zonally asymmetric Hadley cell. The tropical Hadley cell corresponds to the Hadley cell of the classic three-cell model whereas the extratropical Hadley cell and the stratospheric cell correspond to the eddy-driven extratropical residual circulation. The joint consideration of meridional mass and AM circulations helps to substantiate Hadley's original view that the hemispheric-wide thermally direct meridional circulation can have broad surface easterly in the tropics and westerly in the extratropics. Because the mass circulation cannot have a net divergence anywhere in long time mean and the earth's AM decreases toward the poles, the companion AM transport in the equatorward cold air branch inevitably has to be divergent. The downward transfer of westerly AM to the cold air branch by the pressure torque associated with westward tilted baroclinic waves dominates such divergence in the extratropics, explaining the prevailing surface westerly there. In the tropics and polar region where the meridional circulation is nearly zonally symmetric, the dominance of this divergence results in a surface easterly there. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates and characterizes the control mechanisms of the low-level circulation over west equatorial Africa (WEA) using four reanalysis datasets. Emphasis is placed on the contribution of the divergent and rotational circulation to the total flow. Additional focus is made on analyzing the zonal wind component, in order to gain insight into the processes that control the variability of the low-level westerlies (LLW) in the region. The results suggest that the control mechanisms differ north and south of 6°N. In the north, the LLW are primarily a rotational flow forming part of the cyclonic circulation driven primarily by the heat low of the West African monsoon system. This northern branch of the LLW is well developed from June to August and disappears in December-February. South of 6°N, the seasonal variability of the LLW is controlled by the heating contrast between cooling associated with subsidence over the ocean and heating over land regions largely south of the equator, where ascent prevails. The heating contrasts lead to a Walker-type circulation with development of LLW as its lower branch. Thus, evidence is presented that the LLW are driven by differential heating. This contrasts with the traditional conceptual view that the Saint Helena high is the primary driver of low-level circulation off the Atlantic Ocean to WEA. Forest cover in WEA may modulate the latent heating that helps to drive the differential heating and maintain the LLW, and this interaction should be the focus of further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the dynamical processes through which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) influences the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) within the framework of the moist static energy (MSE) budget, using both observations and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. The focus is on the most prominent feature of the EASM, the so-called meiyu-baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest-northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean between mid-June and mid-July. Observational analyses of the MSE budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, and primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the TP is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the theory developed in Part III, this paper introduces a new method to retrieve snow microphysics from ground-based collocated X- and W-band vertically pointing Doppler radars. To take into account the variety of microphysical relations observed in natural precipitating snow and to quantify the uncertainty in the retrieval results caused by this variety, the retrieval is formulated using the ensemble-based method. The ensemble is determined by the spread of uncertainties in the microphysical descriptions applied to map the same radar observables to the retrieved quantities. The model descriptors use diverse assumptions concerning functional forms of particle size distribution and mass-velocity relations, all taken from previous observational studies. The mean of each ensemble is assumed to be the best estimate of the retrieval while its spread is defined by the standard deviation that characterizes its uncertainty. The main retrieved products are the characteristic size, the snow mass content, and the density parameter, as well as the vertical air motion. Four observables used in the retrieval are the difference in reflectivities and in Doppler velocities at two wavelengths, together with the equivalent reflectivity factor and Doppler velocity at X band. The solutions that are not consistent with all four observables after taking into account their estimated measurement errors are eliminated from the ensembles. The application of the retrieval algorithm to the real data yields a snow microphysical description that agrees with the snow characteristics seen in the vertical profile of the observed Doppler spectrum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a first step toward retrieval of snow microphysics from two vertically pointing radars operating at X band and W band, a theoretical model of snow microphysics is formulated in which the number of unknown parameters is reduced to snow particle density and to two bulk quantities controlling the particle size distribution. This reduction of parameters is achieved by normalizing not only the size distribution but also the snow particle mass in the mass-size relationship as well as by using a relationship between snow density and snow terminal fall velocity. However, no single snow microphysical model could describe the observed variability in the radar measurements. The uncertainty in the developed deterministic relations that map the microphysical parameters to the observables is shown to be mainly associated with the assumed dependence of particle velocity on its mass and on the particle size distribution (PSD) representation. Hence, various mass-velocity relationships together with different generic functional forms of the PSD reported in literature are described in this paper and then used in the retrieval. The derived relations provide a reasonable range of uncertainty associated with the microphysics when used for the actual retrieval of snow properties from observations in Part IV. The uncertainty in the backscattering computations of an individual particle, performed using Mie theory assuming spherical form with nonuniform density, is not taken into account in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to examine the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The multimodel ensemble (MME) is able to reproduce reasonably well the circulation features of the EAWM. The simulated surface air temperature still suffers from a cold bias over East Asia, but this bias is reduced compared with CMIP phase 3 models. The intermodel spread is relatively small for the large-scale circulations, but is large for the lower-tropospheric meridional wind and precipitation along the East Asian coast. The interannual variability of the EAWM-related circulations can be captured by most of the models. A general bias is that the simulated variability is slightly weaker than in the observations. Based on a selected dynamic EAWM index, the patterns of the EAWM-related anomalies are well reproduced in MME although the simulated anomalies are slightly weaker than the observations. One general bias is that the northeasterly anomalies over East Asia cannot be captured to the south of 30°N. This bias may arise both from the inadequacies of the EAWM index and from the ability of models to capture the EAWM-related tropical-extratropical interactions. The ENSO-EAWM relationship is then evaluated and about half of the models can successfully capture the observed ENSO-EAWM relationship, including the significant negative correlation between Niño-3.4 and EAWM indices and the anomalous anticyclone (or cyclone) over the northwestern Pacific. The success of these models is attributed to the reasonable simulation of both ENSO's spatial structure and its strength of interannual variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new formulation of the deep convection triggering for general circulation model convective parameterizations. This triggering is driven by evolving properties of the strongest boundary layer thermals. To investigate this, a statistical analysis of large-eddy simulation cloud fields in a case of transition from shallow to deep convection over a semiarid land is carried out at different stages of the transition from shallow to deep convection. Based on the dynamical and geometrical properties at cloud base, a new computation of the triggering is first proposed. The analysis of the distribution law of the maximum size of the thermals suggests that, in addition to this necessary condition, another triggering condition is required, that is, that this maximum horizontal size should exceed a certain threshold. This is explicitly represented stochastically. Therefore, the new formulation integrates the whole transition process from the first cloud to the first deep convective cell and can be decomposed into three steps: (i) the appearance of clouds, (ii) crossing of the inhibition layer, and (iii) deep convection triggering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a stochastic triggering parameterization for deep convection and its implementation in the latest standard version of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-Zoom (LMDZ) general circulation model: LMDZ5B. The derivation of the formulation of this parameterization and the justification, based on large-eddy simulation results, for the main hypothesis was proposed in Part I of this study. Whereas the standard triggering formulation in LMDZ5B relies on the maximum vertical velocity within a mean bulk thermal, the new formulation presented here (i) considers a thermal size distribution instead of a bulk thermal, (ii) provides a statistical lifting energy at cloud base, (iii) proposes a three-step trigger (appearance of clouds, inhibition crossing, and exceeding of a cross-section threshold), and (iv) includes a stochastic component. Here the complete implementation is presented, with its coupling to the thermal model used to treat shallow convection in LMDZ5B. The parameterization is tested over various cases in a single-column model framework. A sensitivity study to each parameter introduced is also carried out. The impact of the new triggering is then evaluated in the single-column version of LMDZ on several case studies and in full 3D simulations. It is found that the new triggering (i) delays deep convection triggering, (ii) suppresses it over oceanic trade wind cumulus zones, (iii) increases the low-level cloudiness, and (iv) increases the convective variability. The scale-aware nature of this parameterization is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable and accurate environmental sensing is a cornerstone of modern meteorology. This paper presents a laboratory environmental simulator capable of reproducing extreme environments and performing tests and calibrations of meteorological sensor systems under controlled conditions. This facility is available to the research community as well as industry and is intended to encourage advancement in the field of sensor metrology applied to meteorology and climatology. Discussion will be made of the temperature, pressure, humidity and wind flow control, and sensing systems with reference to specific sensor test programs and future research activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, most climate simulations use prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore do not interactively include the effect of carbon cycle feedbacks. However, the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario has additionally been run by earth system models with prescribed CO2 emissions. This paper analyzes the climate projections of 11 earth system models (ESMs) that performed both emission-driven and concentration-driven RCP8.5 simulations. When forced by RCP8.5 CO2 emissions, models simulate a large spread in atmospheric CO2; the simulated 2100 concentrations range between 795 and 1145 ppm. Seven out of the 11 ESMs simulate a larger CO2 (on average by 44 ppm, 985 ± 97 ppm by 2100) and hence higher radiative forcing (by 0.25 W m−2) when driven by CO2 emissions than for the concentration-driven scenarios (941 ppm). However, most of these models already overestimate the present-day CO2, with the present-day biases reasonably well correlated with future atmospheric concentrations' departure from the prescribed concentration. The uncertainty in CO2 projections is mainly attributable to uncertainties in the response of the land carbon cycle. As a result of simulated higher CO2 concentrations than in the concentration-driven simulations, temperature projections are generally higher when ESMs are driven with CO2 emissions. Global surface temperature change by 2100 (relative to present day) increased by 3.9° ± 0.9°C for the emission-driven simulations compared to 3.7° ± 0.7°C in the concentration-driven simulations. Although the lower ends are comparable in both sets of simulations, the highest climate projections are significantly warmer in the emission-driven simulations because of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) robustly predict that the rate of increase in global-mean precipitation with global-mean surface temperature increase is much less than the rate of increase of water vapor. The goal of this paper is to explain in detail the mechanisms by which precipitation increase is constrained by radiative cooling. Changes in clear-sky atmospheric radiative cooling resulting from changes in temperature and humidity in global warming simulations are in good agreement with the multimodel, global-mean precipitation increase projected by GCMs (~1.1 W m−2 K−1). In an atmosphere with fixed specific humidity, radiative cooling from the top of the atmosphere (TOA) increases in response to a uniform temperature increase of the surface and atmosphere, while atmospheric cooling by exchange with the surface decreases because the upward emission of longwave radiation from the surface increases more than the downward longwave radiation from the atmosphere. When a fixed relative humidity (RH) assumption is made, however, uniform warming causes a much smaller increase of cooling at the TOA, and the surface contribution reverses to an increase in net cooling rate due to increased downward emission from water vapor. Sensitivity of precipitation changes to lapse rate changes is modest when RH is fixed. Carbon dioxide reduces TOA emission with only weak effects on surface fluxes, and thus suppresses precipitation. The net atmospheric cooling response and thereby the precipitation response to CO2-induced warming at fixed RH are mostly contributed by changes in surface fluxes. The role of clouds is discussed. Intermodel spread in the rate of precipitation increase across the CMIP5 simulations is attributed to differences in the atmospheric cooling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]