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This paper analyzes the statistical relationship between the total ozone column (TOC) and atmospheric blocking using 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data for the 1978–98 period, with special emphasis on winter and the European and eastern Pacific sectors. Regional blocking occurrence is accompanied by a decrease of TOC within the anticyclonic circulation region and a distinctive ozone increase upstream and downstream (upstream and south) in the Pacific (European) sector. Blocking significantly enhances the likelihood of low TOC extremes, especially over the Scandinavian and the Alaska Peninsulas, where more than 50% of winter blocks lead to TOC values in the lowest tail of the distribution. The relationship between ozone miniholes and blocking is confined to the high latitudes of both basins and is strong in Europe, where about half of the ozone miniholes occur simultaneously with blocking. Blocking-related ozone miniholes (blocking ozone miniholes) are also among the most intense and persistent. Although blocking activity does not drive the interannual variability of regional ozone miniholes, blocking ozone miniholes account for up to two-thirds of the total observed trend of ozone miniholes in Europe. The polar vortex is proposed as a feasible candidate for explaining the enhanced coupling of blocking and ozone miniholes in Europe and its long-term modulation. Blocking ozone miniholes are consistent with an almost purely dynamic origin caused by horizontal transport of ozone-poor air and vertical motions working together at different levels to reduce ozone content. Although the contribution of the former is dominant, accounting for two-thirds of ozone reduction in the 330–850-K column, the effect of the latter becomes a distinctive feature of blocking ozone miniholes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northern Hemisphere extended winter mean stratospheric vortex alternates between a strong and a weak state, which is manifested in a statistically significant bimodal distribution. In the end of the 1970s a regime change took place, increasing the frequency of the strong phase relative to the weak phase. This paper investigates the connection between the regime behavior of the vortex and the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in three different datasets. Although there are some differences between the datasets, they agree regarding the general picture. It is found that stratospheric equatorial wind between 70 and 8 hPa shows a bimodal structure in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Such bimodality is nontrivial as it requires only weak variability in the amplitude. Unimodality is found above 8 hPa, where the semiannual oscillation dominates. A strong coincidence is found between strong (weak) vortex winters and winter in the westerly (easterly) QBO regime. Furthermore, the change of the vortex in the late 1970s can be related to a change in the QBO from a period with strong bimodality to a period with weak bimodality. Careful consideration of the statistical significance shows that this change in the QBO can be a random process simply related to the annual sampling of the QBO. Finally, previous findings of phase locking between the QBO and the annual cycle are considered; it is shown that the phase locking is related to the seasonal variations in the bimodality of the QBO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is the last in a series of papers addressing the dynamics of the West African summer monsoon at intraseasonal time scales between 10 and 90 days. The signals of convectively coupled equatorial Rossby (ER) waves within the summer African monsoon have been investigated after filtering NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data within a box delineated by the dispersion curves of the theoretical ER waves. Two families of waves have been detected in the 10–100-day periodicity band by performing a singular spectrum analysis on a regional index of ER-filtered OLR. For each family the first EOF mode has been retained to focus on the main convective variability signal. Within the periodicity band of 30–100 days, an ER wave pattern with an approximate wavelength of 13 500 km has been depicted. This ER wave links the MJO mode in the Indian monsoon sector with the main mode of convective variability over West and central Africa. This confirms the investigations carried out in previous studies. Within the 10–30-day periodicity band, a separate ER wave pattern has been highlighted in the African monsoon system with an approximate wavelength of 7500 km, a phase speed of 6 m s−1, and a period of 15 days. The combined OLR and atmospheric circulation pattern looks like a combination of ER wave solutions with meridional wavenumbers of 1 and 2. Its vertical baroclinic profile suggests that this wave is forced by the deep convective heating. Its initiation in terms of OLR modulation is detected north of Lake Victoria, extending northward and then propagating westward along the Sahel latitudes. The Sahel mode identified in previous studies corresponds to the second main mode of convective variability within the 10–30-day periodicity band, and this has also been examined. Its pattern and evolution look like the first-mode ER wave pattern and they are temporally correlated with a coefficient of +0.6. About one-third of the Sahel mode events are concomitant with an ER wave occurrence. The main difference between these two signals consists of a stronger OLR and circulation modulation of the Sahel mode over East and central Africa. Thus, the Sahel mode occurrence and its westward propagation could be explained in part by atmospheric dynamics associated with the ER waves and in part by land surface interactions, as shown in other studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on overhead conductors and other components of power networks. This paper presents an extension to the ice accretion forecasting system (IAFS) that is comprised of a numerical weather prediction model, a precipitation-type algorithm, and an ice accretion model. To optimize the performance of IAFS, the parameters of the precipitation-type algorithm are estimated using a genetic algorithm. The system is developed by hindcasting a well-documented freezing-rain event and calibrated using four additional ice storms. Subsequently, the system is tested using three independent storms. The results show a significant improvement in consistency, accuracy, and skill of IAFS. The methodology described in this contribution is not limited to ice accretion modeling—it provides a general approach for setting operational parameters of data-processing algorithms to achieve interoperability of numerical weather prediction models with add-on applications based on empirical observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Boundary Layer Evolution (BLE) missions of the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) were designed to provide comprehensive observations of the distribution of water vapor in the quiescent boundary layer and its evolution during the early morning. The case study discussed in this paper presents detailed observations of the development of the boundary layer from before sunrise through to the period of growth of the mature convective boundary layer (CBL) during the 14 June 2002 BLE mission. The large number of remote sensing platforms, including the multiple instruments collocated at the Homestead Profiling Site, provided a detailed set of measurements of the growth and structure of the CBL. The observations describe the classic evolution of a daytime CBL, beginning with a shallow nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) below the remnants of the previous day’s mixed layer, or residual layer. The vertical distribution of humidity in these layers during the early morning was affected by advection of dry air and by gravity waves. About an hour after sunrise a CBL developed, and gradually deepened with time as it mixed out the NBL and residual layer. The growth of the top of the CBL was particularly well observed because of the strong vertical gradients in temperature, humidity, and aerosol concentration. As the CBL deepened and the average CBL wind speed decreased, the mode of convective organization evolved from horizontal convective rolls to open-celled convection. A unique set of detailed measurements of the structure of the open cells was obtained from multiple instruments including the Doppler-on-Wheels radar, the Mobile Integrated Profiling System wind profiler, and the Scanning Raman lidar. They showed the relationship between open cells, thermals, mantle echoes, and the CBL top. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The idea of using large-scale information to predict local climate variability is widely exploited in climate change impact studies as an alternative to computationally expensive high-resolution models. This approach implies the hypothesis that the statistical relationship between large-scale climate states and local variables defined for the present-day climate remains valid in the altered climate. In this paper, the concept of weather regimes is used to deduce a relationship between large-scale circulation and European winter temperature. The change in temperature with increased greenhouse gases is, however, not homogeneous among the individual regimes. As a result, the impact of the weather regimes on local temperature changes varies in the future, limiting its usefulness for refining temperature changes to the small scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To better understand variability in weather and climate, it is vital to address past atmospheric circulation. This need requires meteorological information not just from the surface but also at upper levels. Current global upper-level datasets only reach back to the 1940s or 1950s and do not cover some important periods in the first half of the twentieth century. Extending the observational record is therefore considered important in order to analyze climate variability in the past and verify global climate models used to predict future climate change. Although earlier upper-air data from platforms such as radio-sondes, aircraft, pilot balloons, registering balloons, and kites are available from various sources, no systematic compilation and quality assessment of upper-level data prior to the International Geophysical Year (1957/58) has ever been performed. Here we present the Comprehensive Historical Upper-Air Network (CHUAN). It is a consistent global historical upper-air dataset that has been derived from heterogeneous data available from various sources as well as from newly digitized data. This paper describes the CHUAN dataset, the metadata, the quality control procedures, and the relationship to existing datasets. Some examples are given of its usefulness for analyzing weather and climate during the first half of the twentieth century. The CHUAN dataset comprises 3987 station records worldwide or about 16.4 million profiles (of which 12.6 million are before 1958 and 5.3 million, primarily from pilot balloons, are before 1948). A monthly mean version can be downloaded from the World Wide Web (). A supplement to this article is available online: DOI: [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the sensitivity to various atmospheric parameters of two height assignment methods that aim to retrieve the cloud-top height of semitransparent clouds. The use of simulated Meteosat-8 radiances has the advantage that the pressure retrieved by a given method can be compared to the initial pressure set to the cloud in the model, which is exactly known. The methods retrieve the pressure of a perfectly opaque cloud to within a few hectopascals. However, considering more realistic ice clouds, methods are sensitive to all of the tested atmospheric parameters and, especially, to the cloud microphysics, which can bias the results of the CO2-slicing method by several tens of hectopascals. The cloud-top pressure retrieval is especially difficult for thinner clouds with optical thicknesses smaller than 2, for which the errors can reach several tens of hectopascals. The methods have also been tested after introducing realistic perturbations in the temperature and humidity profiles and on the clear-sky surface radiances. The corresponding averages of errors on the retrieved pressures are also very large, especially for thin clouds. In multilayer cloud situations the height assignment methods do not work properly, placing the cloud-top height somewhere between the two cloud layers for most cirrus cloud layers with optical thicknesses between 0.1 and 10. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes synoptic-scale trough-thinning processes using a filamentation time diagnostic. The filamentation time diagnostic is derived from the potential vorticity equation expressed in spherical coordinates in the horizontal plane and the isentropic coordinate in the vertical direction. The diagnostic is an accurate measure of stirring processes under the condition of “slowly varying velocity gradients.” Trough-thinning processes are analyzed for one tropical example and two midlatitude examples. The results indicate that the filamentation time for the tropical trough-thinning event is generally longer than those for the midlatitude trough events. In addition to the effects of stretching and shearing deformation, the filamentation time diagnostic contains the effects of divergence. For the calculation of filamentation time on isentropic surfaces in spherical coordinates, it is acceptable to ignore the curvature effects in the tropics; however, in both the midlatitudes and the tropics, isentropic divergence effects should be retained for improved accuracy. Combining an analysis of cross potential vorticity contour flows on isentropic surfaces with the filamentation time analysis gives a more complete description of the dynamics. The results show that the filamentation time diagnostic can serve as a useful aid in the analysis and prediction of trough thinning and cutoff-low formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Differential heating of the earth’s atmosphere drives a global circulation that transports energy from the tropical regions to higher latitudes. Because of the turbulent nature of the flow, any description of a “mean circulation” or “mean parcel trajectories” is tied to the specific averaging method and coordinate system. In this paper, the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data spanning 1970–2004 are used to compare the mean circulation obtained by averaging the flow on surfaces of constant liquid water potential temperature, or dry isentropes, and on surfaces of constant equivalent potential temperature, or moist isentropes. While the two circulations are qualitatively similar, they differ in intensity. In the tropics, the total mass transport on dry isentropes is larger than the circulation on moist isentropes. In contrast, in midlatitudes, the total mass transport on moist isentropes is between 1.5 and 3 times larger than the mass transport on dry isentropes. It is shown here that the differences between the two circulations can be explained by the atmospheric transport of water vapor. In particular, the enhanced mass transport on moist isentropes corresponds to a poleward flow of warm moist air near the earth’s surface in midlatitudes. This low-level poleward flow does not appear in the zonally averaged circulation on dry isentropes, as it is hidden by the presence of a larger equatorward flow of drier air at same potential temperature. However, as the equivalent potential temperature in this low-level poleward flow is close to the potential temperature of the air near the tropopause, it is included in the total circulation on moist isentropes. In the tropics, the situation is reversed: the Hadley circulation transports warm moist air toward the equator, and in the opposite direction to the flow at upper levels, and the circulation on dry isentropes is larger than that on moist isentropes. The relationship between circulation and entropy transport is also analyzed. A gross stratification is defined as the ratio of the entropy transport to the net transport on isentropic surfaces. It is found that in midlatitudes the gross stability for moist entropy is approximately the same as that for dry entropy. The gross stratification in the midlatitude circulation differs from what one would expect for either an overturning circulation or horizontal mixing; rather, it confirms that warm moist subtropical air ascends into the upper troposphere within the storm tracks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the sensitivity of the circulation of an idealized primitive equation two-level model on the form and strength of the heating, aiming to understand the qualitatively different sensitivity of the isentropic slope on differential heating reported by previous idealized studies when different model formulations are used. It is argued that this contrasting behavior might arise from differences in the internal determination of the heating. To test this contention, the two-level model is forced using two different heating formulations: a standard Newtonian cooling formulation and a highly simplified formulation in which the net lower-to-upper troposphere heat transport is prescribed by construction. The results are interpreted using quasigeostrophic turbulent closures, which have previously been shown to have predictive power for the model. It is found that the strength of the circulation, as measured by eddy length and velocity scales and by the strength of the energy cycle, scales with the vertical heating (the lower-to-upper troposphere heat transport), with a weak dependence. By contrast, the isentropic slope is only sensitive to the structure of the heating, as measured by the ratio between meridional versus vertical heating, and not to the actual strength of the heating. In general the heating is internally determined, and this ratio may either increase or decrease as the circulation strengthens. It is shown that the sign of the sensitivity depends on the steepness of the relation between vertical heating and stratification for the particular heating formulation used. The quasigeostrophic limit (fixed stratification) and the prescribed heating model constrain the possible range of behaviors and provide bounds of sensitivity for the model. These results may help explain the different sensitivity of the isentropic slope on differential heating for dry and moist models and for quasigeostrophic and primitive equation models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the use of large-scale circulation patterns (El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation), local outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and previous streamflow information for short-term (weekly) basin-scale streamflow forecasting. To model the complex relationship between these inputs and basin-scale streamflow, an artificial intelligence approach—genetic programming (GP)—has been employed. Research findings of this study indicate that the use of large-scale atmospheric circulation information and streamflow at previous time steps, along with OLR as a local meteorological input, potentially improves the performance of weekly basin-scale streamflow prediction. The genetic programming approach is found to capture the complex relationship between the weekly streamflow and various inputs. Different input variable combinations were explored to come up with the best one. The observed and predicted streamflows were found to correspond well with each other with a coefficient of determination of 0.653 (correlation coefficient r = 0.808), which may appear attractive for such a complex system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, there has been a growing interest in the study of a possible active role of the stratosphere on the tropospheric climate. However, most studies have focused on this connection in wintertime. This paper deals with the possible relationship between variations in the timing of stratospheric final warmings (SFWs, observed in springtime) and monthly averaged changes in the Euro-Atlantic climate. On the basis of the date on which the SFW occurs, two sets of years have been selected for the period of study (1958–2002): “early years” and “late years,” reflecting a very early or a very late breakup of the polar vortex. The statistical significance of the early-minus-late differences in the analyzed fields has been established by applying a nonparametric test based on a Monte Carlo–like technique. Using data from 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40), a dynamical study for March and April has shown important differences between both sets of years in stationary waves, especially ultralong ones (waves with k = 1 in March and k = 2 in April). Furthermore, the interannual variations in the stratospheric zonal wind seem to propagate downward as the spring progresses, in such a way that they reach tropospheric levels in April. Relevant differences between “early” and “late” years have been found in tropospheric monthly fields in the Euro-Atlantic area (geopotential, zonal wind, and storm-track activity), being at their most extensive in April. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a simple theoretical argument to isolate the conditions under which a tropical cyclone can rapidly develop a warm-core thermal structure and subsequently approach a steady state. The theoretical argument is based on the balanced vortex model and, in particular, on the associated transverse circulation equation and the geopotential tendency equation. These second-order partial differential equations contain the diabatic forcing and three spatially varying coefficients: the static stability A, the baroclinity B, and the inertial stability C. Thus, the transverse circulation and the temperature tendency in a tropical vortex depend not only on the diabatic forcing but also on the spatial distributions of A, B, and C. Experience shows that the large radial variations of C are typically the most important effect. Under certain simplifying assumptions as to the vertical structure of the diabatic forcing and the spatial variability of A, B, and C, the transverse circulation equation and the geopotential tendency equation can be solved via separation of variables. The resulting radial structure equations retain the dynamically important radial variation of C and can be solved in terms of Green’s functions. These analytical solutions show that the vortex response to a delta function in the diabatic heating depends critically on whether the heating occurs in the low-inertial-stability region outside the radius of maximum wind or in the high-inertial-stability region inside the radius of maximum wind. This result suggests that rapid intensification is favored for storms that have at least some of the eyewall convection inside the radius of maximum wind. The development of an eye partially removes diabatic heating from the high-inertial-stability region of the storm center; however, rapid intensification may continue if the eyewall heating continues to become more efficient. As the warm core matures and static stability increases over the inner core, conditions there become less favorable for deep upright convection and the storm tends to approach a steady state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations, primarily from satellites, have shown a statistical relationship between the surface wind stress and underlying sea surface temperature (SST) on intermediate space and time scales, in many regions inclusive of eastern boundary upwelling current systems. In this paper, this empirical SST–wind stress relationship is utilized to provide a simple representation of mesoscale air–sea coupling for an oceanic model forced by surface winds, namely, the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). This model formulation is applied to an idealized upwelling problem with prevailing equatorward winds to determine the coupling consequences on flow, SST, stratification, and wind evolutions. The initially uniform wind field adjusts through coupling to a cross-shore profile with weaker nearshore winds, similar to realistic ones. The modified wind stress weakens the nearshore upwelling circulation and increases SST in the coastal zone. The SST-induced wind stress curl strengthens offshore upwelling through Ekman suction. The total curl-driven upwelling exceeds the coastal upwelling. The SST-induced changes in the nearshore wind stress field also strengthen and broaden the poleward undercurrent. The coupling also shows significant impact on the developing mesoscale eddies by damaging cyclonic eddies more than anticyclonic eddies, which leads to dominance by the latter. Dynamically, this is a consequence of cyclones with stronger SST gradients that induce stronger wind perturbations in this particular upwelling problem and that are therefore generally more susceptible to disruption than anticyclones at finite Rossby number. The net effect is a weakening of eddy kinetic energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transverse cirrus bands have commonly been observed in the outflow of thunderstorms, though little literature exists on the subject. The primary objective of this paper is to characterize the transverse band signature in satellite imagery with references to storm location, movement, and life cycle. The transverse band signature was observed in nearly half of all convective systems analyzed between May and August 2006, commonly in the mature and decay stages of the system. Storm size and propagation did not appear to influence transverse bands, though the bands did appear to be associated with negative 300-hPa relative vorticity and positive divergence. Transverse bands lasted an average duration of 9 h and generally occurred during the nighttime hours. The satellite analysis was combined with eddy dissipation rate (EDR) atmospheric turbulence observations collected by commercial aircraft. At least one observation of light (moderate) turbulence was found within transverse bands for 93% (44%) of events, indicating that the presence of transverse bands in satellite imagery is a strong indicator for aviation turbulence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The isentropic system of equations has particular advantages in the numerical modeling of weather and climate. These include the elimination of the vertical velocity in adiabatic flow, which simplifies the motion to a two-dimensional problem and greatly reduces the numerical errors associated with vertical advection. The mechanism for the vertical transfer of horizontal momentum is simply the pressure drag acting on isentropic coordinate surfaces under frictionless, adiabatic conditions. In addition, vertical resolution is enhanced in regions of high static stability, which leads to better resolution of features such as the tropopause. Negative static stability and isentropic overturning frequently occur in finescale atmospheric motion. This presents a challenge to nonhydrostatic modeling with the isentropic vertical coordinate. This paper presents a new nonhydrostatic atmospheric model based on a generalized vertical coordinate. The coordinate is specified in a manner similar to that of Konor and Arakawa, but “arbitrary Eulerian–Lagrangian” (ALE) methods are used to maintain coordinate monotonicity in regions of negative static stability and to return the coordinate surfaces to their isentropic “targets” in statically stable regions. The model is mass conserving and implements a vertical differencing scheme that satisfies two additional integral constraints for the limiting case of z coordinates. The hybrid vertical coordinate model is tested with mountain-wave experiments including a downslope windstorm with breaking gravity waves. The results show that the advantages of the isentropic coordinate are realized in the model with regard to vertical tracer and momentum transport. Also, the isentropic overturning associated with the wave breaking is successfully handled by the coordinate formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the extension of the eddy diffusivity mass flux (EDMF) framework for turbulent transport into the statistical modeling of boundary layer clouds. The advection–diffusion decomposition that defines EDMF is projected onto the turbulent distribution as used in the statistical cloud model. Each EDMF component is thus assigned its own independent probability density function (PDF), resulting in an updraft PDF and a diffusive PDF. This double PDF system is configured and integrated in conserved variable space, with the position and orientation of each PDF determined by its unique nature. The parameterization of the associated updraft/diffusion decomposition of variance introduces close ties to the transport scheme; whereas the grid box mean variance is reconstructed using a prognostic variance budget, the variance of the updraft component is parameterized as a function of the spread among various resolved model updrafts. Individual model components and the scheme as a whole are evaluated in detail against large-eddy simulations of a number of prototype subtropical trade wind cases. The results show that various structures in cloud fraction, condensate, and variance are reproduced. The diffusive PDF acts to represent stratiform clouds; the advective PDF represents cumuliform clouds in conditionally unstable layers. This allows representation of complex scenarios in which both cloud forms occur, such as the transitional trade wind regime featuring cumulus rising into stratocumulus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric transport of the natural radionuclide 210Pb is simulated by a general circulation model (GCM) and calculated surface concentrations are compared with those recorded at the Tahiti station on a daily scale. Numerical results for 2006 show the underestimation of concentrations for most recorded peaks. The purpose of this paper is to explain the observed discrepancies, to evaluate the GCM physical parameterizations, and to determine by numerical means the concentrations at Tahiti for a pollutant circulating across the South Pacific Ocean. Three meteorological situations in 2006 are further analyzed. Circulation over Tahiti for these periods is simulated by a mesoscale meteorological model using four nested grids with resolutions ranging from 27 to 1 km. The calculated wind fields are validated by those observed at two stations on the northwest coast of Tahiti, which is exposed both to topography-induced vortices and to thermally driven local breezes. Atmospheric dispersion of an offshore plume is then calculated by a particle Lagrangian transport model, driven by the mesoscale model at 1- and 81-km resolutions, representing local and global circulations, respectively. Simulations at 1-km resolution show the complex atmospheric circulation over Tahiti, which results in a large spatial and temporal variability of 210Pb surface concentrations on an hourly scale. The impact of local circulation is, however, limited when daily averaged concentrations at the station are considered. Under the studied regimes, transport simulations at the two resolutions lead to similar daily averaged concentrations. The deficiencies of the GCM in simulating daily averaged 210Pb concentrations could be attributable to the deep convection parameterization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although predictability represents one of the fundamental problems in atmospheric science, gaps in our knowledge remain. Theoretical understanding of the inverse error cascade is limited mostly to homogeneous, isotropic turbulence, whereas numerical simulations have focused on highly complex numerical weather prediction models. These results cannot be easily reconciled. This paper describes selected aspects of the predictability behavior of rotating stratified turbulence. The objective is to determine how the predictability varies with scale when the dynamics are more realistic than the idealized models that underlie the classical picture of predictability and yet are free of the parameterizations that complicate interpretation of NWP models. Using a numerical model of the nonhydrostatic Boussinesq equations, it is shown that the predictability decay, as diagnosed by the relative error, is slower for subsynoptic flow. The dependence on the deformation radius, differences between balanced and unbalanced modes, and implications for NWP models are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires are capable of inducing atmospheric circulations that result predominantly from large temperature anomalies produced by the fire. The fundamental dynamics through which a forest fire and the atmosphere interact to yield different convective regimes is still not well understood. This study uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model to investigate the impact of the environmental (i.e., far upstream, undisturbed by fire) wind profile on dry convection above a prescribed heat source of an intensity and spatial scale comparable to a wildfire. Dimensional analysis of the fire–atmosphere problem provides two relevant parameters: a surface buoyancy parameter that addresses the amount of heat a parcel of air receives in transiting above the fire and an advection parameter that addresses the degree to which the environmental wind advects updrafts away from the fire. Two-dimensional simulations are performed in which the upstream surface wind speed and mixed layer mean wind speed are varied independently to better understand the fundamental processes governing the organizational mode and updraft strength. The result of these experiments is the identification of two primary classes of dry convection: plume and multicell. Simulated plume cases exhibit weak advection by the mean wind and are subdivided into intense plume and hybrid classes based on the degree of steadiness within the convection column. Hybrid cases contain columns of largely discrete updrafts versus the more continuous updraft column associated with the intense plume mode. Multicell cases develop with strong mixed layer advection and are subdivided into strong and weak classes based on the depth of convection. Intense plume and strong multicell (hybrid and weak multicell) cases occur when the surface buoyancy is large (small). Parcel analyses are performed to more closely examine the forcing of convection within different areas of the parameter space. The multicell (strong and weak) and intense plume modes are forced by a combination of buoyancy and dynamic pressure gradient forcing associated with the perturbation wind field, whereas the hybrid mode is forced by a combination of buoyancy and dynamic pressure gradient forcing associated with the strong background shear. The paper concludes with a discussion of the degree of nonlinearity that is likely to exist at the fire front for each of the convective modes; nonlinear fire behavior is most likely for the hybrid mode and least likely for the weak multicell mode. Knowledge of the sensitivity of the convective mode to upstream conditions can provide information about the degree of nonlinear or erratic fire behavior expected for a given wind profile upstreamof the fire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with flow in a rectilinear channel on a rotating earth. The flow is directed perpendicular to the background planetary vorticity; both an analytical theory and numerical simulations are employed. The analytical approach assumes the existence of an eddy viscosity and employs a perturbation expansion in powers of the reciprocal of the Rossby number (Ro). At lowest order, a cross-channel circulation arises because of the tilting of the planetary vorticity vector by the shear in the along-channel direction. This circulation causes a surface convergence, which achieves its maximum value at a channel aspect ratio (= width/depth) of approximately 10. The location of the maximum surface convergence moves from near the center of the channel to a position very near the sidewalls as the aspect ratio increases from O(1) to O(100). To include the effects of turbulence, direct numerical pseudospectral simulations of the equations of motion are employed. While holding the friction Reynolds number fixed at 230.27, a series of simulations with increasing rotation (Ro = ∞, 10, 1.0, 0.1) are performed. The channelwide circulation cell observed in the analytical theory occurs for the finite Rossby number, but is displaced by lateral self-advection. In addition, turbulence-driven corner circulations appear, which make the along-channel maximum velocity appear at a subsurface location. The most interesting effect is the segregation of the turbulence to one side of the channel, while the turbulence is suppressed on the opposite side. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information about several papers discussed at a meeting held at the University of Victoria in British Columbia on tropical meteorology is presented. Topics include the importance and complexity of tropical meteorology, the impact of atmospheric convection on local and large scale circulations in the tropics, and the usability of general circulation models (GCMs). The meeting featured several meteorologists including Andrew Majda, Philip Austin and John Scinocca.

In this paper, the characteristics of urban heat island (UHI) and boundary layer structures in the Beijing area, China, are analyzed using conventional and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is used to simulate these urban weather features for comparison with observations. WRF is also used to test the sensitivity of model simulations to different urban land use scenarios and urban building structures to investigate the impacts of urbanization on surface weather and boundary layer structures. Results show that the coupled WRF/Noah/UCM modeling system seems to be able to reproduce the following observed features reasonably well: 1) the diurnal variation of UHI intensity; 2) the spatial distribution of UHI in Beijing; 3) the diurnal variation of wind speed and direction, and interactions between mountain–valley circulations and UHI; 4) small-scale boundary layer convective rolls and cells; and 5) the nocturnal boundary layer lower-level jet. The statistical analyses reveal that urban canopy variables (e.g., temperature, wind speed) from WRF/Noah/UCM compare better with surface observations than the conventional variables (e.g., 2-m temperature, 10-m wind speed). Both observations and the model show that the airflow over Beijing is dominated by mountain–valley flows that are modified by urban–rural circulations. Sensitivity tests imply that the presence or absence of urban surfaces significantly impacts the formation of horizontal convective rolls (HCRs), and the details in urban structures seem to have less pronounced but not negligible effects on HCRs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, different partitioning techniques and methods to identify wind sea and swell are investigated, addressing both 1D and 2D schemes. Current partitioning techniques depend largely on arbitrary parameterizations to assess if wave systems are significant or spurious. This makes the implementation of automated procedures difficult, if not impossible, to calibrate. To avoid this limitation, for the 2D spectrum, the use of a digital filter is proposed to help the algorithm keep the important features of the spectrum and disregard the noise. For the 1D spectrum, a mechanism oriented to neglect the most likely spurious partitions was found sufficient for detecting relevant spectral features. Regarding the identification of wind sea and swell, it was found that customarily used methods sometimes largely differ from one another. Evidently, methods using 2D spectra and wind information are the most consistent. In reference to 1D identification methods, attention is given to two widely used methods, namely, the steepness method used operationally at the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the Pierson–Moskowitz (PM) spectrum peak method. It was found that the steepness method systematically overestimates swell, while the PM method is more consistent, although it tends to underestimate swell. Consistent results were obtained looking at the ratio between the energy at the spectral peak of a partition and the energy at the peak of a PM spectrum with the same peak frequency. It is found that the use of partitioning gives more consistent identification results using both 1D and 2D spectra. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of Northern Hemisphere climate regime variability for three different time slices, simulated by the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM). The three time slices are composed of present-day conditions, the mid-Holocene, and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Climate regimes have been determined by analyzing the structure of a spherical probability density function in a low-dimensional state space spanned by the three leading empirical orthogonal functions. This study confirms the ability of the FOAM medium-resolution climate model to reproduce low-frequency climate variability in the form of regime-like behavior. Three to four regimes have been detected for each time slice. Compared with present-day conditions, new climate regimes appeared for the LGM. For the mid-Holocene, which had slightly different boundary conditions and external forcings than the present-day simulation, the frequency of occurrence of the regimes was altered while only slight changes were found in the structure of some regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A revisit on observations shows that the tropical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, after removing both the long-term trend and decadal variation of the background climate, has been enhanced by as much as 50% during the past 50 yr. This is inconsistent with the changes in the equatorial atmosphere, which shows a slowdown of the zonal Walker circulation and tends to stabilize the tropical coupling system. The ocean role is highlighted in this paper. The enhanced ENSO variability is attributed to the strengthened equatorial thermocline that acts as a destabilizing factor of the tropical coupling system. To quantify the dynamic effect of the ocean on the ENSO variability under the global warming, ensemble experiments are performed using a coupled climate model [Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM)], following the “1pctto2x” scenario defined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. Term balance analyses on the temperature variability equation show that the anomalous upwelling of the mean vertical temperature gradient (referred as the “local term”) in the eastern equatorial Pacific is the most important destabilizing factor to the temperature variabilities. The magnitude of local term and its change are controlled by its two components: the mean vertical temperature gradient Tz and the “virtual vertical heat flux” -w′T ′. The former can be viewed as the background of the latter and these two components are positively correlated. A stronger Tz is usually associated with a bigger upward heat flux -w′T ′, which implies a bigger impact of thermocline depth variations on SST. The Tz is first enhanced during the transient stage of the global warming with a 1% yr-1 increase of CO2, and then reduced during the equilibrium stage with a fixed doubled CO2. This turnaround in Tz determines the turnaround of ENSO variability in the entire global warming period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the following question is addressed: assuming that some information is available about initial perturbations (e.g., that they belong to an ensemble, which consists of the perturbations whose magnitudes are less than a given value), how can one determine which perturbations belong to this ensemble and trigger the blocking onset? The applicability of linear singular vectors (LSVs) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) is investigated by a T21L3 quasigeostrophic (QG) model and its tangent linear and adjoint versions. Particular attention is focused on the roles of nonlinear processes and the importance of choosing a proper objective function. LSVs are the fastest-growing perturbations when the evolutions of the initial perturbations are well described by the tangent linear version of the nonlinear model. CNOPs are a natural generalization of LSVs into the nonlinear category, that is, the initial perturbation whose nonlinear evolution attains the maximum of the objective function at a prescribed forecast time under some initial constraint conditions. The results of this research show that in some cases for the given initial ensemble perturbations CNOPs trigger a transition to a blocking regime (whereas LSVs may not generate such a transition), which shows that nonlinear advection processes are fundamental for studying the weather regime transitions from zonal flow to blocking in the medium range. By choosing two objective functions and investigating the resulting CNOPs, it is found that CNOPs obtained from the objective function of the blocking-index form (type-1 CNOPs) may trigger a transition to a blocking regime under some circumstances, whereas CNOPs related to the streamfunction squared norm (type-2 CNOPs) fail to yield such a transition. This demonstrates the importance of selecting a proper objective function when aiming at finding the perturbations yielding such a transition. The mechanism of blocking onset triggered by perturbations is also explored. It is shown that the approach of type-1 CNOP remains a viable tool to capture the spatial structure of initial perturbations that trigger a blocking onset. The planetary-scale projection of the nonlinear interaction of such initial perturbations contributes to the amplification of the blocking downstream and then triggers a blocking onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes laboratory observations of inertia–gravity waves emitted from balanced fluid flow. In a rotating two-layer annulus experiment, the wavelength of the inertia–gravity waves is very close to the deformation radius. Their amplitude varies linearly with Rossby number in the range 0.05–0.14, at constant Burger number (or rotational Froude number). This linear scaling challenges the notion, suggested by several dynamical theories, that inertia–gravity waves generated by balanced motion will be exponentially small. It is estimated that the balanced flow leaks roughly 1% of its energy each rotation period into the inertia–gravity waves at the peak of their generation. The findings of this study imply an inevitable emission of inertia–gravity waves at Rossby numbers similar to those of the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic flow. Extrapolation of the results suggests that inertia–gravity waves might make a significant contribution to the energy budgets of the atmosphere and ocean. In particular, emission of inertia–gravity waves from mesoscale eddies may be an important source of energy for deep interior mixing in the ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper promotes the view that African easterly waves (AEWs) are triggered by localized forcing, most likely associated with latent heating upstream of the region of observed AEW growth. A primitive equation model is used to show that AEWs can be triggered by finite-amplitude transient and localized latent heating on a zonally varying basic state that is linearly stable. Heating close to the entrance region of the African easterly jet (AEJ) is shown to initiate AEWs downstream. The heating leads to an initial trough that reaches the West African coast about 5–7 days later, depending on the nature of the heating profile. After this, a structure that projects strongly onto the leading linear normal mode of the basic state becomes established, characterized by a number of westward-propagating disturbances that strongly resemble AEWs. The sensitivity of the forced AEWs to the nature and location of the heating profile is examined. AEWs are most efficiently triggered by heating profiles that establish lower tropospheric circulations close to the entrance region of the AEJ. In the present study, this was best achieved by lower tropospheric heating from shallow convection or upper-level heating and lower-level cooling from a stratiform precipitation profile. Both profiles have significant heating gradients in the vertical in the mid-to-lower troposphere. This triggering paradigm for the genesis of AEWs has consequences for the variability and predictability of AEWs at weather and climate time scales. In addition to the nature of the AEJ, often emphasized, it is crucial to consider the nature and variability of upstream heating triggers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper a study aimed at comparing the perturbation methodologies based on the singular vector ensemble prediction system (SV-EPS) and the breeding vector ensemble prediction system (BV-EPS) in the same model environment is presented. A simple breeding system (simple BV-EPS) as well as one with regional rescaling dependent on an estimate of the analysis error variance (masked BV-EPS) were used. The ECMWF Integrated Forecast System has been used and the three experiments are compared for 46 forecast cases between 1 December 2005 and 15 January 2006. By studying the distribution of the perturbation energy it was possible to see large differences between the experiments initially, but after 48 h the distributions have converged. Using probabilistic scores, these results show that SV-EPS has a somewhat better performance for the Northern Hemisphere compared to BV-EPS. For the Southern Hemisphere masked BV-EPS and SV-EPS yield almost equal results. For the tropics the masked breeding ensemble shows the best performance during the first 6 days. One reason for this is the current setup of the singular vector ensemble at ECMWF yielding in general very low initial perturbation amplitudes in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratospheric gravity wave field in the Southern Hemisphere is investigated by analyzing observations collected by 27 long-duration balloons that flew between September 2005 and February 2006 over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. The analysis is based on the methods introduced by Boccara et al. in a companion paper. Special attention is given to deriving information useful to gravity wave drag parameterizations employed in atmospheric general circulation models. The balloon dataset is used to map the geographic variability of gravity wave momentum fluxes in the lower stratosphere. This flux distribution is found to be very heterogeneous with the largest time-averaged value (28 mPa) observed above the Antarctic Peninsula. This value exceeds by a factor of ∼10 the overall mean momentum flux measured during the balloon campaign. Zonal momentum fluxes were predominantly westward, whereas meridional momentum fluxes were equally northward and southward. A local enhancement of southward flux is nevertheless observed above Adélie Land and is attributed to waves generated by katabatic winds, for which the signature is otherwise rather small in the balloon observations. When zonal averages are performed, oceanic momentum fluxes are found to be of similar magnitude to continental values (2.5–3 mPa), stressing the importance of nonorographic gravity waves over oceans. Last, gravity wave intermittency is investigated. Mountain waves appear to be significantly more sporadic than waves observed above the ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4- and 1-km-gridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4- and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12- and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses recent progress toward understanding the instability of a monotonic vortex at high Rossby number, due to the radiation of spiral inertia–gravity (IG) waves. The outward-propagating IG waves are excited by inner undulations of potential vorticity that consist of one or more vortex Rossby waves. An individual vortex Rossby wave and its IG wave emission have angular pseudomomenta of opposite sign, positive and negative, respectively. The Rossby wave therefore grows in response to producing radiation. Such growth is potentially suppressed by the resonant absorption of angular pseudomomentum in a critical layer, where the angular phase velocity of the Rossby wave matches the angular velocity of the mean flow. Suppression requires a sufficiently steep radial gradient of potential vorticity in the critical layer. Both linear and nonlinear steepness requirements are reviewed. The formal theory of radiation-driven instability, or “spontaneous imbalance,” is generalized in isentropic coordinates to baroclinic vortices that possess active critical layers. Furthermore, the rate of angular momentum loss by IG wave radiation is reexamined in the hurricane parameter regime. Numerical results suggest that the negative radiation torque on a hurricane has a smaller impact than surface drag, despite recent estimates of its large magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Midwest U.S. Corn Belt, the 1999 and 2000 summer seasons (15 June–15 September) expressed contrasting spatial patterns and magnitudes of precipitation (1999: dry; 2000: normal to moist). Distinct from the numerical modeling approach often used in studies of land surface–climate interactions, a “synoptic climatological” (i.e., stratified composite) approach is applied to observation data (e.g., precipitation, radar, and atmospheric reanalyses) to determine the relative influences of “top-down” synoptic atmospheric circulation (Part I, this paper) and “bottom-up” land surface mesoscale conditions (Part II) on the predominantly convective precipitation variations. Because mesoscale modeling suggests that the free-atmosphere wind speed (“background wind”) regulates the land surface–atmosphere mesoscale interaction, each day’s spatial range of wind speed at 500 hPa [V(500)] over the Central Corn Belt (CCB) is classified into one of five categories ranging from “weak flow” to “jet maximum.” Deep convective activity (i.e., presence/absence and morphological signature type) is determined for each afternoon and early evening period from the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) imagery. Frequencies of the resulting background wind–convection joint occurrence types for the 1999 and 2000 summer seasons are examined in the context of the statistics determined for summers in the longer period of 1996–2001, and also compose categories for which NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (NNR) fields are averaged to yield synoptic composite environments for the two study seasons. The latter composites are compared visually with high-resolution (spatial) composites of precipitation to help identify the influence of top-down climate controls. The analysis confirms that reduced (increased) organization of radar-indicated deep convection tends to occur with weaker (stronger) background flow. The summers of 1999 and 2000 differ from one another in terms of background flow and convective activity, but more so with respect to the six-summer averages, indicating that a fuller explanation of the precipitation differences in the two summers must be sought in the analysis of additional synoptic meteorological variables. The composite synoptic conditions on convection (CV) days (no convection (NC) days) in 1999 and 2000 are generalized as follows: low pressure incoming from the west (high pressure or ridging), southerly (northerly) lower-tropospheric winds, positive (negative) anomalies of moisture in the lower troposphere, rising (sinking) air in the midtroposphere, and a location south of the upper-tropospheric jet maximum (absence of an upper-tropospheric jet or one located just south of the area). Features resembling the “northerly low-level jets” identified in previous studies for the Great Plains are present on some NC-day composites. On CV days the spatial synchronization of synoptic features implying baroclinity increases with increasing background wind speed. The CV and NC composites differ least on days of weaker flow, and there are small areas within the CCB having no obvious association between precipitation elevated amounts and synoptic circulation features favoring the upward motion of air. These spatial incongruities imply a contributory influence of “stationary” (i.e., climatic) land surface mesoscale processes in convective activity, which are examined in Part II. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the tropospheric jet shift to a prescribed zonal torque in an idealized dry atmospheric model with high stratospheric resolution. The jet moves in opposite directions for torques on the jet’s equatorward and poleward flanks in the troposphere. This can be explained by considering how the critical latitudes for wave activity absorption change, where the eastward propagation speed of eddies equals the background zonal mean zonal wind. While the increased zonal winds in the subtropics allow the midlatitude eddies to propagate farther into the tropics and result in the equatorward shift in the critical latitudes, the increased winds in the midlatitudes accelerate the eastward eddy phase speeds and lead to the poleward shift in the critical latitudes. In contrast, the jet moves poleward when a westerly torque is placed in the extratropical stratosphere irrespective of the forcing latitude. The downward penetration of zonal winds to the troposphere displays a poleward slope for the subtropical torque, an equatorward slope for the high-latitude torque, and less tilting for the midlatitude torques. The stratospheric eddies play a key role in transferring zonal wind anomalies downward into the troposphere. It is argued that these stratospheric zonal wind anomalies can affect the tropospheric jet by altering the eastward propagation of tropospheric eddies. Additionally, the zonal wind response to a subtropical zonal torque in this idealized model is of value in understanding the tropospheric jet sensitivity to the orographic gravity wave drag parameterization in a realistic climate model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a dynamic framework for an atmospheric general circulation spectral model in which a reference stratified atmospheric temperature and a reference surface pressure are introduced into the governing equations so as to improve the calculation of the pressure gradient force and gradients of surface pressure and temperature. The vertical profile of the reference atmospheric temperature approximately corresponds to that of the U.S. midlatitude standard atmosphere within the troposphere and stratosphere, and the reference surface pressure is a function of surface terrain geopotential and is close to the observed mean surface pressure. Prognostic variables for the temperature and surface pressure are replaced by their perturbations from the prescribed references. The numerical algorithms of the explicit time difference scheme for vorticity and the semi-implicit time difference scheme for divergence, perturbation temperature, and perturbation surface pressure equation are given in detail. The modified numerical framework is implemented in the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to test its validation and impact on simulated climate. Both the original and the modified models are run with the same spectral resolution (T42), the same physical parameterizations, and the same boundary conditions corresponding to the observed monthly mean sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration from 1971 to 2000. This permits one to evaluate the performance of the new dynamic framework compared to the commonly used one. Results show that there is a general improvement for the simulated climate at regional and global scales, especially for temperature and wind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the dynamical aspect of variational data assimilation in the tropics and the role of the background-error covariances in the observing system simulation experiments for the tropics. The study uses a model that describes the horizontal structure of the potential temperature and wind fields in regions of deep tropical convection. The assimilation method is three- and four-dimensional variational data assimilation. The background-error covariance model for the assimilation is a multivariate model that includes the mass–wind couplings representative of equatorial inertio-gravity modes and equatorial Kelvin and mixed Rossby–gravity modes in addition to those representative of balanced equatorial Rossby waves. Spectra of the background errors based on these waves are derived from the tropical forecast errors of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. Tropical mass–wind (im)balances are illustrated by studying the potential impact of the spaceborne Doppler wind lidar (DWL) Atmospheric Dynamic Mission (ADM)-Aeolus, which measures horizontal line-of-sight (LOS) wind components. Several scenarios with two DWLs of ADM-Aeolus type are compared under different flow conditions and using different assumptions about the quality of the background-error covariances. Results of three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) illustrate the inefficiency of multivariate assimilation in the tropics. The consequence for the assimilation of LOS winds is that the missing part of the wind vector can hardly be reconstructed from the mass-field observations and applied balances as in the case of the midlatitudes. Results of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) show that for large-scale tropical conditions and using reliable background-error statistics, differences among various DWL scenarios are not large. As the background-error covariances becomes less reliable, horizontal scales become smaller and the flow becomes less zonal, the importance of obtaining information about the wind vector increases. The added value of another DWL satellite increases as the quality of the background-error covariances deteriorates and it can be more than twice as large as in the case of reliable covariances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme rainfall events contribute a large portion of wintertime precipitation to northern California. The motivations of this paper were to study the observed differences in the patterns between extreme and more commonly occurring lighter rainfall events, and to study whether anomaly fields might be used to discriminate between them. Daily (1200–1200 UTC) precipitation amounts were binned into three progressively heavier categories (12.5–50.0 mm, light; 50–100 mm, moderate; and >100 mm, heavy) in order to help identify the physical processes responsible for extreme precipitation in the Sierra Nevada range between 37.5° and 41.0°N. The composite fields revealed marked differences between the synoptic patterns associated with the three different groups. The heavy composites showed a much stronger, larger-scale, and slower-moving negative geopotential height anomaly off the Pacific coast of Oregon and Washington than was revealed in either of the other two composites. The heavy rainfall events were also typically associated with an atmospheric river with anomalously high precipitable water (PW) and 850-hPa moisture flux (MF) within it. The standardized PW and MF anomalies associated with the heavy grouping were higher and were slower moving than in either of the lighter bins. Three multiday heavy rainfall events were closely examined in order to ascertain whether anomaly patterns could provide forecast utility. Each of the multiday extreme rainfall events investigated was associated with atmospheric rivers that contained highly anomalous 850-hPa MF and PW within it. Each case was also associated with an unusually intense negative geopotential height anomaly that was similarly located off of the west coast of the United States. The similarities in the anomaly pattern among the three multiday extreme events suggest that standardized anomalies might be useful in predicting extreme multiday rainfall events in the northern Sierra range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warm and moist air masses, required to generate deep convection east of the Andes Cordillera, are generally the result of humidity transport by the so-called low-level jet (LLJ). In this paper, it is shown from detailed test cases that the eastern part of the continent and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean may constitute another source of moist, warm air, which could be of potential importance even in the presence of a southerly LLJ. The position of the anticyclones crossing South America from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean appears to be a key factor affecting the origin of moisture over the continent. In particular, the LLJ may weaken and even change its direction when the eastern side of the South Pacific anticyclone crosses the mountains; this wind reversal is generally associated with deep convection suppression. Thus, as a South Pacific anticyclone crosses the continent more to the east and its western side reaches the east coast of South America, deep convection can reappear east of the Andes, over the Mendoza region, although the LLJ is frequently suppressed. This is associated with a transport of warm and moist air from Uruguay, southeast Brazil, or even directly from the Atlantic Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical Cyclone Gert (1999) experienced an extratropical transition while it merged with an extratropical cyclone upstream. The upstream extratropical cyclone had started to intensify before it merged with the transitioning tropical cyclone, and it continued intensifying afterward (12 hPa in 12 h, according to the Met Office analysis). The question addressed in this paper is the following: what was the impact of the transitioning tropical cyclone on this intensification of the upstream extratropical cyclone? Until now, in the literature, tropical cyclones that experience extratropical transition have been found to have either no impact or a positive impact on the development of extratropical cyclogenesis events. The positive impact involves either a triggering of the development of the extratropical cyclone or simply a contribution to its deepening. However, the case studied here proves to have a negative impact on the developing extratropical cyclone upstream by diminishing its intensification. Forecasts are performed with and without the tropical cyclone in the initial conditions. They show that when Gert is not present in the initial conditions, the peak intensity of the cyclone upstream occurs 9 h earlier and it is 10 hPa deeper than when Gert is present. Thus, Gert acts to weaken the development by contributing to the filling of the extratropical surface low upstream. Quasigeostropic (QG) diagnostics show that the negative impact on the extratropical development is linked to the fact that the transitioning tropical cyclone interacts with a warm front inducing a negative QG vertical velocity over the developing extratropical low upstream. This interpretation is consistent with other contrasting cases in which the transitioning tropical cyclone interacts with a cold front and induces a positive QG vertical velocity over the developing low upstream, thus enhancing its development. The results are also in agreement with idealized experiments in the literature that are aimed at studying the predictability of extratropical storms. These idealized experiments yielded similar results using synoptic-scale and mesoscale vortices as perturbations on warm and cold fronts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents statistical analyses of possible associations between major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) and tropospheric blocking events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) with 49 yr of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data from 1957/58 to 2005/06. Using a random shuffling or “bootstrap” method, these analyses explore two hypotheses claiming that blocking events occur preferentially and last longer in association with SSWs (pre- and post-SSW periods are considered separately). In the shuffling method, the defined SSWs are randomly redistributed to evaluate the statistical significance of linked cases in the original data. The author’s analyses generally do not support either hypothesis for the pre- or post-SSW period when treating the SSW events all together, suggesting that such associations are not dominant modes of coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary circulation of atmospheric vortices, such as tropical cyclones and tornadoes, can be estimated from single-Doppler radar observations using the ground-based velocity track display (GBVTD) algorithm. The GBVTD algorithm has limitations in the following four areas: 1) distortion in the retrieved asymmetric wind fields, 2) a limited analysis domain, 3) the inability to resolve the cross-beam component of the mean wind, and 4) the inability to separate the asymmetric tangential and radial winds. This paper presents the generalized velocity track display (GVTD) algorithm, which eliminates the first two limitations inherent in the GBVTD technique and demonstrates the possibility of subjectively estimating the mean wind vector when its signature is visible beyond the influence of the vortex circulation. In this new paradigm, the GVTD algorithm fits the atmospheric vortex circulation to a new variable VdD/RT in a linear azimuth angle (θ′), rather than the Doppler velocity Vd in a nonlinear angle (ψ), which is used in GBVTD. Key vortex kinematic structures (e.g., mean wind, axisymmetric tangential wind, etc.) in the VdD/RT space simplify the interpretation of the radar signature and eliminate the geometric distortion inherent in the Vd display. This is a significant improvement in diagnosing vortex structures in both operations and research. The advantages of using VdD/RT are illustrated using analytical atmospheric vortices, and the properties are compared with GBVTD. The characteristics of the VdD/RT display of Typhoon Gladys (1994) can be approximated by a constant mean wind plus an axisymmetric vortex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In computational simulations of an idealized subtropical eastern boundary upwelling current system, similar to the California Current, a submesoscale transition occurs in the eddy variability as the horizontal grid scale is reduced to O(1) km. This first paper (in a series of three) describes the transition in terms of the emergent flow structure and the associated time-averaged eddy fluxes. In addition to the mesoscale eddies that arise from a primary instability of the alongshore, wind-driven currents, significant energy is transferred into submesoscale fronts and vortices in the upper ocean. The submesoscale arises through surface frontogenesis growing off upwelled cold filaments that are pulled offshore and strained in between the mesoscale eddy centers. In turn, some submesoscale fronts become unstable and develop submesoscale meanders and fragment into roll-up vortices. Associated with this phenomenon are a large vertical vorticity and Rossby number, a large vertical velocity, relatively flat horizontal spectra (contrary to the prevailing view of mesoscale dynamics), a large vertical buoyancy flux acting to restratify the upper ocean, a submesoscale energy conversion from potential to kinetic, a significant spatial and temporal intermittency in the upper ocean, and material exchanges between the surface boundary layer and pycnocline. Comparison with available observations indicates that submesoscale fronts and instabilities occur widely in the upper ocean, with characteristics similar to the simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, Jupiter’s Great Red Spot (GRS) is used to determine properties of the Jovian atmosphere that cannot otherwise be found. These properties include the potential vorticity of the GRS and its neighboring jet streams, the shear imposed on the GRS by the jet streams, and the vertical entropy gradient (i.e., Rossby deformation radius). The cloud cover of the GRS, which is often used to define the GRS’s area and aspect ratio, is found to differ significantly from the region of the GRS’s potential vorticity anomaly. The westward-going jet stream to the north of the GRS and the eastward-going jet stream to its south are each found to have a large potential vorticity “jump.” The jumps have opposite signs, and as a consequence of their interaction with the GRS, the shear imposed on the GRS is reduced. The aspect ratio of the GRS’s potential vorticity anomaly depends on the ratio of the imposed shear to the strength of the anomaly. The east–west to north–south aspect ratio is found to be ∼2:1, but without the opposing jumps it would be much greater. The GRS’s high-speed collar and quiescent interior require that the potential vorticity in the interior be approximately half that in the collar. No other persistent geophysical vortex has a significant local minimum of potential vorticity in its interior, and laboratory vortices with such a minimum are unstable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes results from a large-eddy simulation (LES) model used in an idealized setting to simulate the onset of the sea breeze. As the LES is capable of simulating boundary layer–scale, three-dimensional turbulence along with the mesoscale sea-breeze circulation, a parameterization of the planetary boundary layer was unnecessary. The basic experimental design considers a rotating, uniformly stratified, resting atmosphere that is suddenly heated at the surface over the “land” half of the domain. To focus on the simplest nontrivial problem, the diurnal cycle, effects of moisture, interactions with large-scale winds, and coastline curvature were all neglected in this study. The assumption of a straight coastline allows the use of a rectangular computational domain that extends to 50 km on either side of the coast, but only 5 km along the coast, with 100-m grid intervals so that the small-scale turbulent convective eddies together with the mesoscale sea breeze may be accurately computed. Through dimensional analysis of the simulation results, the length and velocity scales characterizing the simulated sea breeze as functions of the externally specified parameters are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the onset of the strong El Niño of 1997–98 historical rainfall teleconnection patterns and dynamical model predictions both suggested an enhanced likelihood of drought for southern Africa, but widespread dry conditions failed to materialize. Results from a diagnostic study of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data are reported here demonstrating how the large- and regional-scale atmospheric circulations during the 1997–98 El Niño differed from previous events. Emphasis is placed on the January–March 1998 season and comparisons with the strong 1982–83 El Niño, although composites of eight events occurring between 1950 and 2000 are also considered. In a companion paper, simulation runs from three atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), and forecasts from three fully coupled models are employed to investigate the extent to which the anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns during the 1997–98 El Niño may have been anticipated. Observational results indicate that the 1997–98 El Niño displayed significant differences from both the 1982–83 episode and the composite event. An unusually strong Angola low, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western Indian and eastern tropical South Atlantic Oceans, and an enhanced northerly moisture flux from the continental interior and the western tropical Indian Ocean all appear to have contributed to more seasonal rainfall in 1997–98 over much of the southern Africa subcontinent than in past El Niño events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multiple equilibria of the thermohaline circulation (THC: used here in the sense of the meridional overturning circulation) as function of the surface freshwater flux has been studied intensively following a Stommel paper from 1961. It is shown here that multistability and hysteresis of the THC also exist when the wind stress amplitude is varied as a control parameter. Both the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ocean general circulation model (MITgcm) and a simple three-box model are used to study and explain different dynamical regimes of the THC and THC variability as a function of the wind stress amplitude. Starting with active winds and a thermally dominant thermohaline circulation state, the wind stress amplitude is slowly reduced to zero over a time period of ∼40 000 yr (40 kyr) and then increased again to its initial value over another ∼40 kyr. It is found that during the decreasing wind stress phase, the THC remains thermally dominant until very low wind stress amplitude at which pronounced Dansgaard–Oeschger-like THC relaxation oscillations are initiated. However, while the wind stress amplitude is increased, these relaxation oscillations are present up to significantly larger wind stress amplitude. The results of this study thus suggest that under the same wind stress amplitude, the THC can be either in a stable thermally dominant state or in a pronounced relaxation oscillations state. The simple box model analysis suggests that the observed hysteresis is due to the combination of the Stommel hysteresis and the Winton and Sarachik “deep decoupling” oscillations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geostationary infrared sounding missions offer good temporal coverage; however, because of the large distance to the observed earth targets, the effect of diffraction is increased compared to sounding from a low earth orbit (LEO). Because of the wavelength dependence of diffraction, the spectral channels do not sample the same volume of air, as is generally assumed by retrieval algorithms for LEO infrared (IR) sounder data. This additional error introduced in the retrieval by diffraction-limited instruments is called pseudonoise throughout the paper. One such diffraction-limited geostationary system is the candidate Infrared Sounder (IRS) mission on the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellites with a planned need date in 2015, due to the expected lifetime of the current Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites. A simplified point spread function (PSF) is applied. To represent the channels within natural conditions, measured spectra from the LEO Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are used as an underlying scene when integrating over the PSF. As the AIRS spatial resolution is 15 km, the basic assumption made was that the meteorological and surface features can be regarded as fractal to the extent that they can be downscaled to at least 4 km, making them useful for these investigations. The results show that the pseudonoise is highly dependent on wavelength, and highest in the window and CO2 regions (within the broader 700–1200 cm-1, or 8.3–14.3-μm, region). The worst-case pseudonoise values are approximately 1 K for these regions. A case study of the impact of the obtained pseudonoise values on temperature and water vapor retrievals shows that only with the worst-case assumptions (uncorrelated noise) is there a quantifiable impact on the results. For temperature retrievals, this ranged from 0.1 to 0.3 K in the lower and upper troposphere, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An idealized vertical–meridional zonally symmetric model is developed in order to recover a July typical monsoon regime over West Africa in response to surface conditions. The model includes a parameterization to account for heat and momentum fluxes associated with eddies. The sensitivity of the simulated West African monsoon equilibrium regime to some major processes is explored. It allows confirmation of the important role played by the sun’s latitudinal position, the aerosols, the albedo, and the SST’s magnitude in the Gulf of Guinea and in the Mediterranean Sea. The important role of aerosols in warming the Saharan lower layers and their effect on the whole monsoon is underlined. Model results also stress the importance of the Mediterranean Sea, which is needed to obtain the extreme dryness of the Sahara. The use of this idealized model is finally discussed for studying the scale interactions and coupling involved in the West African monsoon as explored in a companion paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]