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El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been shown in many previous papers to impact seasonal levels of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. This paper revisits this relationship by examining a longer period (1900--2009) than has been examined in earlier analyses. Alterations in large-scale climate parameters, especially vertical wind shear, are shown to be the primary reasons why tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic is reduced in El Niño years. Climate signals are found to be somewhat stronger in the Caribbean than for the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. The focus of the paper then shifts to U.S. landfalls, confirming previous research that U.S. landfalls are reduced in El Niño years. The reduction in landfall frequency is greater along the Florida peninsula and East Coast than it is along the Gulf Coast, especially for major hurricanes. The probability of each state being impacted by a hurricane and major hurricane is given for El Niño, La Niña, and neutral years. The most dramatic probability differences between warm and cold ENSO events lie along the East Coast and, in particular, the state of North Carolina. The relationship between ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is also examined. In general, the negative phase of the AMO is characterized by a stronger ENSO modulation signal than a positive phase of the AMO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a detailed hindcast for the generation and propagation of sea state variables-significant wave height H s, peak period T p, mean direction θ, and spectral shape γ - σ -associated with cyclonic events to numerically diagnose their possible hydrodynamic effects over the northeastern Atlantic. An example of such cyclonic events is Hurricane Gordon, which occurred during the second half of August 2012. Extreme hurricane-strength winds produced new and atypically low-frequency (about 14 s) packs of energy. The preexistent wave spectrum suddenly experienced an addition of low-frequency energy along the coast of Cádiz, Spain. This study presents the results of a comprehensive analysis developed to reconstruct the events produced by Hurricane Gordon (2012) along the coast of Cádiz. The analysis features the use of (i) parametric models for the characterization of hurricane winds and pressure fields, (ii) implementation of the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model for the generation and propagation of waves in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, and (iii) its coupling with the MOPLA-taken from the Spanish acronym for wave propagation model, current, and morphodynamic evolution of beaches-model for the evaluation of longshore currents. The numerical wave characterization, generation, and propagation were validated with instrumental data from deep-water and coastal buoys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a year-by-year incremental approach to forecasting the Atlantic named storm frequency (ATSF) for the hurricane season (1 June--30 November). The year-by-year increase or decrease in the ATSF is first forecasted to yield a net ATSF prediction. Six key predictors for the year-by-year increment in the number of Atlantic named tropical storms have been identified that are available before 1 May. The forecast model for the year-by-year increment of the ATSF is first established using a multilinear regression method based on data taken from the years 1965--99, and the forecast model of the ATSF is then derived. The prediction model for the ATSF shows good prediction skill. Compared to the climatological average mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.1, the percentage improvement in the MAE is 29%% for the hindcast period of 2004--09 and 46%% for the cross-validation test from 1985 to 2009 (26 yr). This work demonstrates that the year-by-year incremental approach has the potential to improve the operational forecasting skill for the ATSF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although skillful seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin are now a reality, large gaps remain in our understanding of observed variations in the distribution of activity within the hurricane season. The month of August roughly spans the first third of the climatologically most active part of the season, but activity during the month is quite variable. This paper reports on an initial investigation into forecasting year-to-year variability of August tropical cyclone (TC) activity using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. It is shown that 55%–75% of the variance of August TC activity can be hindcast using a combination of 4–5 global predictors chosen from a 12-predictor pool with each of the predictors showing precursor associations with TC activity. The most prominent predictive signal is the equatorial July 200-mb wind off the west coast of South America. When this wind is anomalously strong from the northeast during July, Atlantic TC activity in August is almost always enhanced. Other July conditions associated with active Augusts include a weak subtropical high in the North Atlantic, an enhanced subtropical high in the northwest Pacific, and low pressure in the Bering Sea region. The most important application of the August-only forecast is that predicted net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity in August has a significant relationship with the incidence of U.S. August TC landfall events. Better understanding of August-only TC variability will allow for a more complete perspective of total seasonal variability and, as such, assist in making better seasonal forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]