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This paper provides an updated analysis of observed changes in extreme precipitation using high-quality station data up to 2018. We examine changes in extreme precipitation represented by annual maxima of 1-day (Rx1day) and 5-day (Rx5day) precipitation accumulations at different spatial scales and attempt to address whether the signal in extreme precipitation has strengthened with several years of additional observations. Extreme precipitation has increased at about two-thirds of stations and the percentage of stations with significantly increasing trends is significantly larger than that can be expected by chance for the globe, continents including Asia, Europe, and North America, and regions including central North America, eastern North America, northern Central America, northern Europe, the Russian Far East, eastern central Asia, and East Asia. The percentage of stations with significantly decreasing trends is not different from that expected by chance. Fitting extreme precipitation to generalized extreme value distributions with global mean surface temperature (GMST) as a covariate reaffirms the statistically significant connections between extreme precipitation and temperature. The global median sensitivity, percentage change in extreme precipitation per 1 K increase in GMST is 6.6% (5.1% to 8.2%; 5%–95% confidence interval) for Rx1day and is slightly smaller at 5.7% (5.0% to 8.0%) for Rx5day. The comparison of results based on observations ending in 2018 with those from data ending in 2000–09 shows a consistent median rate of increase, but a larger percentage of stations with statistically significant increasing trends, indicating an increase in the detectability of extreme precipitation intensification, likely due to the use of longer records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the incremental improvement of the prediction of the Great Lakes net basin supply (NBS) with the hydrometeorological model Modélisation Environmentale-Surface et Hydrologie (MESH) by increasing the accuracy of the simulated NBS components (overlake precipitation, lake evaporation, and runoff into the lake). This was achieved through a series of experiments with MESH and its parent numerical weather prediction model [the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model in its regional configuration (GEM Regional)]. With forcing extracted from operational GEM Regional forecasts, MESH underestimated the NBS in fall and winter. The underestimation increased when the GEM precipitation was replaced with its corrected version provided by the Canadian Precipitation Analysis. This pointed to overestimated lake evaporation and prompted the revision of the parameterization of the surface turbulent fluxes over water used both in MESH and GEM. The revised parameterization was validated against turbulent fluxes measured at a point on Lake Superior. Its use in MESH reduced the lake evaporation and largely corrected the NBS underestimation. However, the Lake Superior NBS became overestimated, signaling an inconsistency between the reduced lake evaporation and the prescribed precipitation. To remove the inconsistency, a new forcing dataset (including precipitation) was generated with the GEM model using the revised flux parameterization. A major NBS simulation improvement was obtained with the new atmospheric forcing reflecting the atmospheric response to the modified surface fluxes over the lakes. Additional improvements resulted by correcting the runoff with a modified snowmelt rate and by insertion of observed streamflows. The study shows that accurate lake evaporation simulation is crucial for accurate NBS prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key mechanisms important for the simulation and better understanding of the precipitation of the North American monsoon (NAM) were analyzed in this paper. Three experiments with the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model, the Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3P (HadRM3P), driven by different boundary conditions were carried out. After a detailed analysis of the moisture and low-level winds derived from the models, the authors conclude that the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) moisture and the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) play an important role in the northern portion of the NAM. Moreover, the realistic simulation of these features is necessary for a better simulation of precipitation in the NAM. Previous works suggest that the influence of moisture from the GoM in Arizona--New Mexico (AZNM) takes place primarily via the middle- and upper-tropospheric flow (above 700 mb). However, it is shown here that if the GoM does not supply enough moisture and the GPLLJ at lower levels (below 700 mb) does not reach the AZNM region, then a dry westerly flow dominates that area and the summer precipitation is below normal. The implications of these findings for studies of climate change are demonstrated with the analysis of two general circulation models (GCMs) commonly used for climate change prediction, which are shown not to reproduce correctly the GPLLJ intensity nor the moisture in the GoM. This implies that the precipitation in AZNM would not be correctly represented by a regional model driven by these GCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy precipitation and the resulting flooding are the most serious weather-related hazards over the west coast of North America. This paper analyzes the trends in heavy precipitation for the period 1950--2009 by examining the decadal distributions of the top 60, 40, and 20 two-day precipitation events for a collection of stations along the coastal zone of the United States and British Columbia, as well as the decadal distribution of maximum daily discharge for unregulated rivers from northern California to Washington State. During the past 60 years there has been a modest increase in heavy precipitation events over southern and central coastal California, a decline in heavy events from northern California through the central Oregon coast, a substantial increase in major events over Washington, and a modest increase over coastal British Columbia. Most of these trends are not significantly different from zero at the 95%% level. The trends in maximum daily discharge of unregulated rivers are consistent with the above pattern, with increasing discharges over the past three decades over Washington and northern Oregon and declines over the remainder of Oregon and northern California. Finally, the above trends in heavy rainfall and daily discharge are compared to the future patterns indicated by general circulation models under various global warming scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]