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The intra-annual variability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean north of the equator is investigated with satellite altimetry mean sea level anomaly data and with an algorithm based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) methods. Two regions of high variability are identified. The first region, between 3° and 12°N, is characterized by the presence of westward-propagating eddies linked to the North Brazil Current (NBC) retroflection in the vicinity of the Brazilian coast. They show a strong annual cycle. In this paper the EMD algorithm points out that this signal is frequency modulated shifting from large length-scale structures in October to smaller ones in March. Consequently, the number of 'eddies' per year can be aliased, according to the time and location of sampling, and can impact the percentage they explain of the interhemispheric exchange of mass and heat associated with the meridional overturning circulation's upper limb. A scenario concerning this dynamics is proposed. The second region reveals the presence of westward-propagating instability waves centered north of the equator (3°-7°N) between 50° and 10°W. These instability waves are also frequency modulated and show a strong seasonal cycle with maximum amplitude around August. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been shown in many previous papers to impact seasonal levels of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. This paper revisits this relationship by examining a longer period (1900--2009) than has been examined in earlier analyses. Alterations in large-scale climate parameters, especially vertical wind shear, are shown to be the primary reasons why tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic is reduced in El Niño years. Climate signals are found to be somewhat stronger in the Caribbean than for the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. The focus of the paper then shifts to U.S. landfalls, confirming previous research that U.S. landfalls are reduced in El Niño years. The reduction in landfall frequency is greater along the Florida peninsula and East Coast than it is along the Gulf Coast, especially for major hurricanes. The probability of each state being impacted by a hurricane and major hurricane is given for El Niño, La Niña, and neutral years. The most dramatic probability differences between warm and cold ENSO events lie along the East Coast and, in particular, the state of North Carolina. The relationship between ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is also examined. In general, the negative phase of the AMO is characterized by a stronger ENSO modulation signal than a positive phase of the AMO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a companion paper, the authors have shown that in an idealized Atlantic–Pacific Ocean configuration with a conveyor-type overturning circulation, localized multidecadal variability occurs in the Atlantic. Results suggest that the multidecadal variability originates from the instability of the three-dimensional thermohaline circulation and that the physics of the spatial patterns of the SST anomalies can be understood from a study of an Atlantic-only configuration. Specific internal (multidecadal) modes, which obtain a positive growth factor depending on the background thermohaline flow, are associated with the instability. In this paper, the spectral origin of these internal modes is studied using eigensolution continuation techniques. As in the single-hemispheric case, multidecadal modes arise through mergers of so-called SST modes. In the double-hemispheric case studied here, there actually are two types of multidecadal modes that lead to oscillatory behavior. Depending on the background conditions, one of these oscillatory flows is preferred. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores climate variability of the lower troposphere and boundary layer in the tropical Atlantic sector through a series of modeling simulations with a diagnostic primitive equation model. The focus is on the role that realistic diabatic heating and its vertical placement as well as surface temperature have in inducing/ reinforcing the local monthly wind circulation, the role that thermal and momentum transients play in the Tropics, the potential for feedbacks, and the way through which other basins influence the tropical Atlantic region. NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data for the period 1958-93 are used to provide forcing and model verification. In the first part of the paper local effects are considered. It is found that the most important terms controlling anomalous surface winds over the ocean are boundary layer temperature gradients and diabatic heating anomalies at low levels (below 780 mb). Anomalous diabatic heating at mid- and upper levels (430-690 mb) contributes to the near-surface circulation poleward of 158 over the warm hemisphere. Anomalous diabatic heating over the African continent influences zonal winds well into the ocean. It is found that the anomalies of surface latent heat flux induced by the interhemispheric distribution of anomalies provide positive feedback on both sides of the equator, in the deep Tropics and west of 208W. It provides negative feedback off the northwest coast of Africa. In the second part the relative importance of remote forcing is considered. It is found that anomalous heating associated with interhemispheric gradients of surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic influence winds in the northern extratropics in a wavelike pattern during boreal spring. Anomalous heating associated with equatorial anomalies of surface temperature influence winds in the southern extratropics in a wavelike pattern during boreal summer. In contrast, the influence of heating in the midlatitudes is confined to the northern subtropics.... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The antecedent atmospheric conditions at midmorning (1200 UTC or 0900 LST) related to subsequent squall-line (SL) initiation in the late afternoon or early evening over the northern coast of Brazil (NCB) were obtained for a specific month (July) when the SL initiation is independent of the strong synoptic forcing related to the intertropical convergence zone. The cases of SL and sparse deep convection in the late afternoon or early evening over the NCB were identified both objectively and subjectively, and grouped into either the SL category (SLC) or the no-convection category (NOC). For the central area of the NCB, the vertical profiles at midmorning for SLC and NOC, computed from radiosonde and ERA-Interim data spanning 9 years (2004-12), were compared. By focusing on the significant differences for both datasets, it was found that two midmorning conditions are favorable to SL initiation in July: a moister layer between 850 and 350 hPa, and a northeasterly flow at 350 hPa. These regional conditions are part of a larger-scale pattern: moister (drier) conditions over the whole NCB (southeastern South America) at 700 hPa and more intense anticyclonic circulation over the Atlantic Ocean close to northeastern Brazil at 350 hPa. The paper's findings have the potential to aid weather forecasting activities, such as those focused on the prediction of SL-related precipitation 6-12 h ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the sea surface height dataset from the TOPEX, Jason-1, and Jason-2 satellites of a 19-yr time series in order to extract the tide harmonic constituents for the region limited by latitude 5°N-35°S and longitude 55°-20°W. The harmonic analysis results implemented here were compared with the tidal constituents estimated by three classical tidal models [i.e., TOPEX/Poseidon Global Inverse Solution 7.2 (TPXO7.2), Global Ocean Tide 4.7 (GOT4.7), and Finite Element Solution 2102 (FES2102)] and also with those extracted from in situ measurements. The Courtier criterion was used to define the tide regimes and regionally they are classified as semidiurnal between the latitude range from approximately 5°N to 22°S, semidiurnal with diurnal inequality from 22° to about 29°S, and mixed southward of latitude 22°S. The comparison results among all tide approaches were done by analyzing the root-sum-square misfit (RSSmisfit) value. Generally, the RSSmisfit difference values are not higher than 12 cm among them in deep-water regions. On the other hand, in shallow water, all models have presented quite similar performance, and the RSSmisfit values have presented higher variance than the previous region, as expected. The major discrepancy results were particularly noted for two tide gauges located in the latitude range from 5°N to 2°S. The latter was investigated and conclusions have mainly pointed to the influence of the mouth of the Amazon River and the considerable distance between tide measurements and the satellite reference point, which make it quite hard to compare those results. In summary, the results have showed that all models presently generate quite reliable results for deep water; however, further study should done in order to improve them in shallow-water regions too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oscillatory behavior of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is thought to underlie Atlantic multidecadal climate variability. While the energy sources and sinks driving the mean MOC have received intense scrutiny over the last decade, the governing energetics of the modes of variability of the MOC have not been addressed to the same degree. This paper examines the energy conversion processes associated with this variability in an idealized North Atlantic Ocean model. In this model, the multidecadal variability arises through an instability associated with a so-called thermal Rossby mode, which involves westward propagation of temperature anomalies. Applying the available potential energy (APE) framework from stratified turbulence to the idealized ocean model simulations, the authors study the multidecadal variability from an energetics viewpoint. The analysis explains how the propagation of the temperature anomalies leads to changes in APE, which are subsequently converted into the kinetic energy changes associated with variations in the MOC. Thus, changes in the rate of generation of APE by surface buoyancy forcing provide the kinetic energy to sustain the multidecadal mode of variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a detailed hindcast for the generation and propagation of sea state variables-significant wave height H s, peak period T p, mean direction θ, and spectral shape γ - σ -associated with cyclonic events to numerically diagnose their possible hydrodynamic effects over the northeastern Atlantic. An example of such cyclonic events is Hurricane Gordon, which occurred during the second half of August 2012. Extreme hurricane-strength winds produced new and atypically low-frequency (about 14 s) packs of energy. The preexistent wave spectrum suddenly experienced an addition of low-frequency energy along the coast of Cádiz, Spain. This study presents the results of a comprehensive analysis developed to reconstruct the events produced by Hurricane Gordon (2012) along the coast of Cádiz. The analysis features the use of (i) parametric models for the characterization of hurricane winds and pressure fields, (ii) implementation of the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model for the generation and propagation of waves in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, and (iii) its coupling with the MOPLA-taken from the Spanish acronym for wave propagation model, current, and morphodynamic evolution of beaches-model for the evaluation of longshore currents. The numerical wave characterization, generation, and propagation were validated with instrumental data from deep-water and coastal buoys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a software tool that enables the identification and automated tracking of oceanic eddies observed with satellite altimetry in user-specified regions throughout the global ocean. As input, the code requires sequential maps of sea level anomalies such as those provided by Archiving, Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic (AVISO) data. Outputs take the form of (i) data files containing eddy properties, including position, radius, amplitude, and azimuthal (geostrophic) speed; and (ii) sequential image maps showing sea surface height maps with active eddy centers and tracks overlaid. The results given are from a demonstration in the Canary Basin region of the northeast Atlantic and are comparable with a published global eddy track database. Some discrepancies between the two datasets include eddy radius magnitude, and the distributions of eddy births and deaths. The discrepancies may be related to differences in the eddy identification methods, and also possibly to differences in the smoothing of the sea surface height maps. The code is written in Python and is made freely available under a GNU license (). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to the role of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in ocean heat transport, AMOC variability is thought to play a role in climate variability on a wide range of time scales. This paper focuses on the potential role of the AMOC in climate variability on decadal time scales. Coupled and ocean-only general circulation models run in idealized geometries are utilized to study the relationships between decadal AMOC and buoyancy variability and determine whether the AMOC plays an active role in setting sea surface temperature on decadal time scales. Decadal AMOC variability is related to changes in the buoyancy field along the western boundary according to the thermal wind relation. Buoyancy anomalies originate in the upper ocean of the subpolar gyre and travel westward as baroclinic Rossby waves. When the buoyancy anomalies strike the western boundary, they are advected southward by the deep western boundary current, leading to latitudinally coherent AMOC variability. The AMOC is observed to respond passively to decadal buoyancy anomalies: although variability of the AMOC leads to meridional ocean heat transport anomalies, these transports are not responsible for creating the buoyancy anomalies in the subpolar gyre that drive AMOC variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fields of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are routinely derived by tracking features in sequential geostationary satellite infrared, water vapor, and visible-channel imagery. While AMVs produced operationally by global data centers are routinely evaluated against rawinsondes, there is a relative dearth of validation opportunities over the tropical oceans-in particular, in the vicinity of tropical disturbances when anomalous flow fields and strongly sheared environments commonly exist. A field experiment in 2010 called Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) was conducted in the tropical west Atlantic Ocean and provides an opportunity to evaluate the quality of tropical AMVs and analyses derived from them. The importance of such a verification is threefold: 1) AMVs often provide the only input data for numerical weather prediction (NWP) over cloudy areas of the tropical oceans, 2) NWP data assimilation methods are increasingly reliant on accurate flow-dependent observation-error characteristics, and 3) global tropical analysis and forecast centers often rely on analyses and diagnostic products derived from the AMV fields. In this paper, the authors utilize dropsonde information from high-flying PREDICT aircraft to identify AMV characteristics and to better understand their errors in tropical-disturbance situations. It is found that, in general, the AMV observation errors are close to those identified in global validation studies. However, some distinct characteristics are uncovered in certain regimes associated with tropical disturbances. High-resolution analyses derived from the AMV fields are also examined and are found to be more reflective of anomalous flow fields than the respective Global Forecast System global model analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a methodology for performing complex wavenumber ray tracing in which both wave trajectory and amplitude are calculated. This ray-tracing framework is first derived using a scaling in which the imaginary wavenumber component is assumed to be much smaller than the real wavenumber component. The approach, based on perturbation methods, is strictly valid when this scaling condition is met. The framework is then used to trace stationary barotropic Rossby waves in a number of settings. First, ray-traced Rossby wave amplitude is validated in a simple, idealized system for which exact solutions can be calculated. Complex wavenumber ray tracing is then applied to both solid-body rotation on a sphere and observed climatological upper-tropospheric fields. These ray-tracing solutions are compared with similarly forced solutions of the linearized barotropic vorticity equation (LBVE). Both real and complex wavenumber ray tracings follow trajectories matched by LBVE solutions. Complex wavenumber ray tracings on observed two-dimensional zonally asymmetric atmospheric fields are found to follow trajectories distinct from real wavenumber Rossby waves. For example, complex wavenumber ray tracings initiated over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during boreal summer propagate northward and northeastward into the subtropics over the Atlantic Ocean, as well as southeastward into the Southern Hemisphere. Similarly initiated real wavenumber ray tracings remain within the deep tropics and propagate westward. These complex wavenumber Rossby wave trajectories and ray amplitudes are generally consistent with LBVE solutions, which indicates this methodology can identify Rossby wave effects distinct from traditional real wavenumber tracings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emerging interest in decadal climate prediction highlights the importance of understanding the mechanisms of decadal to interdecadal climate variability. The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of our understanding of interdecadal climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. In particular, the dynamics of interdecadal variability in both oceans will be discussed in a unified framework and in light of historical development. General mechanisms responsible for interdecadal variability, including the role of ocean dynamics, are reviewed first. A hierarchy of increasingly complex paradigms is used to explain variability. This hierarchy ranges from a simple red noise model to a complex stochastically driven coupled ocean-atmosphere mode. The review suggests that stochastic forcing is the major driving mechanism for almost all interdecadal variability, while ocean-atmosphere feedback plays a relatively minor role. Interdecadal variability can be generated independently in the tropics or extratropics, and in the Pacific or Atlantic. In the Pacific, decadal-interdecadal variability is associated with changes in the wind-driven upper-ocean circulation. In the North Atlantic, some of the multidecadal variability is associated with changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). In both the Pacific and Atlantic, the time scale of interdecadal variability seems to be determined mainly by Rossby wave propagation in the extratropics; in the Atlantic, the time scale could also be determined by the advection of the returning branch of AMOC in the Atlantic. One significant advancement of the last two decades is the recognition of the stochastic forcing as the dominant generation mechanism for almost all interdecadal variability. Finally, outstanding issues regarding the cause of interdecadal climate variability are discussed. The mechanism that determines the time scale of each interdecadal mode remains one of the key issues not understood. It is suggested that much further understanding can be gained in the future by performing specifically designed sensitivity experiments in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models, by further analysis of observations and cross-model comparisons, and by combining mechanistic studies with decadal prediction studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) was recently completed and released to the climate community. This paper describes developments to all CCSM components, and documents fully coupled preindustrial control runs compared to the previous version, CCSM3. Using the standard atmosphere and land resolution of 1° results in the sea surface temperature biases in the major upwelling regions being comparable to the 1.4°-resolution CCSM3. Two changes to the deep convection scheme in the atmosphere component result in CCSM4 producing El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability with a much more realistic frequency distribution than in CCSM3, although the amplitude is too large compared to observations. These changes also improve the Madden-Julian oscillation and the frequency distribution of tropical precipitation. A new overflow parameterization in the ocean component leads to an improved simulation of the Gulf Stream path and the North Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation. Changes to the CCSM4 land component lead to a much improved annual cycle of water storage, especially in the tropics. The CCSM4 sea ice component uses much more realistic albedos than CCSM3, and for several reasons the Arctic sea ice concentration is improved in CCSM4. An ensemble of twentieth-century simulations produces a good match to the observed September Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2005. The CCSM4 ensemble mean increase in globally averaged surface temperature between 1850 and 2005 is larger than the observed increase by about 0.4°C. This is consistent with the fact that CCSM4 does not include a representation of the indirect effects of aerosols, although other factors may come into play. The CCSM4 still has significant biases, such as the mean precipitation distribution in the tropical Pacific Ocean, too much low cloud in the Arctic, and the latitudinal distributions of shortwave and longwave cloud forcings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper gives an overview of a unique set of ship-based atmospheric data acquired over the tropical Atlantic Ocean during boreal spring and summer as part of ongoing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aerosols and Ocean Science Expedition (AEROSE) field campaigns. Following the original 2004 campaign onboard the Ronald H. Brown, AEROSE has operated on a yearly basis since 2006 in collaboration with the NOAA Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) Northeast Extension (PNE). In this work, attention is given to atmospheric soundings of ozone, temperature, water vapor, pressure, and wind obtained from ozonesondes and radiosondes launched to coincide with low earth orbit environmental satellite overpasses [[MetOp and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) A-Train]]. Data from the PNE/ AEROSE campaigns are unique in their range of marine meteorological phenomena germane to the satellite missions in question, including dust and smoke outflows from Africa, the Saharan air layer (SAL), and the distribution of tropical water vapor and tropical Atlantic ozone. The multiyear PNE/AEROSE sounding data are valuable as correlative data for prelaunch phase validation of the planned Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) and NOAA Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellite R series (GOES-R) systems, as well as numerous other science applications. A brief summary of these data, along with an overview of some important science highlights, including meteorological phenomena of general interest, is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies a data mining technique called association rule mining to the analysis of intensity changes of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). The ''best track'' data from the National Hurricane Center and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme databases were stratified into tropical depressions, tropical storms, and category 1--5 hurricanes based on the Saffir--Simpson hurricane scale. After stratification, the seven resulting groups of TCs plus two additional aggregation groups were further separated into intensifying, weakening, and stable TCs. The analysis of the stratified data for preprocessing revealed that faster northward storm motion (the meridional component of storm motion) favors tropical storm intensification but does not favor the intensification of hurricanes. Intensifying tropical storms are more strongly associated with a higher convergence in the upper atmosphere (200-hPa relative eddy momentum flux convergence) than weakening tropical storms, while intensifying hurricanes are more strongly associated with lower convergence values. The mined association rules showed that cofactors usually display higher-intensity prediction power in the stratified TC groups. The data mining results also identified a predictor set with fewer factors but improved probabilities of rapid intensification. This study found that the data mining technique not only sheds light on the roles of multiple-associated physical processes in tropical cyclone development--especially in rapid intensification processes--but also will help improve TC intensity forecasting. This paper provides an outline on how to use this data mining technique and how to overcome low occurrences of mined conditions in order to improve TC intensity forecasting capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analytical model of the Atlantic deep stratification and meridional overturning circulation is presented that illustrates the dynamic coupling between the Southern Ocean and the midlatitude gyres. The model, expressed here in terms of the two-and-a-half-layer framework, predicts the stratification and meridional transport as a function of the mechanical and thermodynamic forcing at the sea surface. The approach is based on the classical elements of large-scale circulation theory--ideal thermocline, inertial western boundary currents, and eddy-controlled Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) models--which are combined to produce a consistent three-dimensional view of the global overturning. The analytical tractability is achieved by assuming and subsequently verifying that the pattern of circulation in the model is largely controlled by adiabatic processes: the time-mean and eddy-induced isopycnal advection of buoyancy. The mean stratification of the lower thermocline is determined by the surface forcing in the ACC and, to a lesser extent, by the North Atlantic Deep Water formation rate. Although the vertical small-scale mixing and the diapycnal eddy-flux components can substantially influence the magnitude of overturning, their effect on the net stratification of the midlatitude ocean is surprisingly limited. The analysis in this paper suggests the interpretation of the ACC as an active lateral boundary layer that does not passively adjust to the prescribed large-scale solution but instead forcefully controls the interior pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper a detailed global climatology of wind-sea and swell parameters, based on the 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) wave reanalysis is presented. The spatial pattern of the swell dominance of the earth''s oceans, in terms of the wave field energy balance and wave field characteristics, is also investigated. Statistical analysis shows that the global ocean is strongly dominated by swell waves. The interannual variability of the wind-sea and swell significant wave heights, and how they are related to the resultant significant wave height, is analyzed over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. The leading modes of variability of wind sea and swell demonstrate noticeable differences, particularly in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. During the Northern Hemisphere winter, a strong north--south swell propagation pattern is observed in the Atlantic Ocean. Statistically significant secular increases in the wind-sea and swell significant wave heights are found in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a year-by-year incremental approach to forecasting the Atlantic named storm frequency (ATSF) for the hurricane season (1 June--30 November). The year-by-year increase or decrease in the ATSF is first forecasted to yield a net ATSF prediction. Six key predictors for the year-by-year increment in the number of Atlantic named tropical storms have been identified that are available before 1 May. The forecast model for the year-by-year increment of the ATSF is first established using a multilinear regression method based on data taken from the years 1965--99, and the forecast model of the ATSF is then derived. The prediction model for the ATSF shows good prediction skill. Compared to the climatological average mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.1, the percentage improvement in the MAE is 29%% for the hindcast period of 2004--09 and 46%% for the cross-validation test from 1985 to 2009 (26 yr). This work demonstrates that the year-by-year incremental approach has the potential to improve the operational forecasting skill for the ATSF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A variety of observational and modeling studies show that changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) can induce rapid global-scale climate change. In particular, a substantially weakened AMOC leads to a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in both the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. However, the simulated amplitudes of the AMOC-induced tropical climate change differ substantially among different models. In this paper, the sensitivity to cloud feedback of the climate response to a change in the AMOC is studied using a coupled ocean–atmosphere model [the GFDL Coupled Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1)]. Without cloud feedback, the simulated AMOC-induced climate change in this model is weakened substantially. Low-cloud feedback has a strong amplifying impact on the tropical ITCZ shift in this model, whereas the effects of high-cloud feedback are weaker. It is concluded that cloud feedback is an important contributor to the uncertainty in the global response to AMOC changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the abrupt increase in the oceanic and atmospheric temperature in the Northern Hemisphere at the beginning of the Holocene, approximately 11 000 yr before the present. De Boer and Nof hypothesized that, at that time, the Bering Strait (BS) opened up abruptly because of the breakup of an ice dam (by rising sea levels). It is proposed further here that this sudden opening caused an abrupt increase in the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. An analytical, coupled ocean–atmosphere model is applied to the North Atlantic in an attempt to quantify the temperature change resulting from the opening of the BS. Heat, salt, and mass are all conserved within a box in the North Atlantic. A convection condition allows water to enter the deep layer and the island rule relates the wind field to the mass fluxes. The conventional approach that the meridional overturning cell (MOC) was not operating during the Younger Dryas because of an overwhelming freshwater flux is adopted here. Opening the BS in the early Holocene allowed these freshwater anomalies to be flushed out into the Pacific, reviving convection and the transport of heat northward. Restarting convection with an open BS increases mean oceanic and atmospheric temperature by 3° and 23°C, respectively. These values are comparable to those found in both the Centre Européen de Recherche et d’Enseignement des Géosciences de l’Environnement (CEREGE) alkenone and Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP 2) ice core records. Of course, restarting convection increases the temperature even with a closed BS, but in the closed BS case the oceanic increase is slightly higher (4°C instead of 3°C), whereas the atmospheric is much lower (17.5°C instead of 23°C). This is because, by requiring a continuous sea level around the Americas, an open BS allows the wind field to limit the amount of Southern Ocean water that enters the South Atlantic. This controlled volume flux (8 Sv) is considerably smaller than that allowed into the Atlantic in the no-wind control closed BS case (17 Sv). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large-scale climatic ocean circulation model was used to study the Atlantic Ocean circulation. This inverse model is an extension of the β-spiral formulation presented in papers by Stommel and Schott with a more complete version of the vorticity equation, including relative vorticity in addition to planetary vorticity. Also, a more complete database for hydrological measurements in the Atlantic Ocean was used, including not only the National Oceanographic Data Center database but also World Ocean Circulation Experiment data and cruises near the Azores, Angola, and Guinea-Bissau. A detailed analysis of the Northern Hemisphere Azores Current and Front shows that this new database and the model results were able to capture all major features reported previously. In the Southern Hemisphere, the authors have identified fully and described the subtropical front that is the counterpart to the Azores Current, which they call the St. Helena Current and Front. Both current systems of both hemispheres have similar intensities, depth penetration, volume transports, and zonal flow. Both have associated subsurface adjacent countercurrent flows, and their main cores flow at similar latitudes (∼34°N for the Azores Current and 34°S for the St. Helena Current). It is argued that both current systems and associated fronts are the poleward 18°C Mode Water discontinuities of the two Atlantic subtropical gyres and that both originate at the corresponding hemisphere western boundary current systems from which they penetrate into the open ocean interior. Thus, both currents should have a similar forcing source, and their origin should not be linked to any geographical peculiarities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review paper discusses the physical basis and the potential for decadal climate predictability over the Atlantic and its adjacent land areas. Many observational and modeling studies describe pronounced decadal and multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean. However, it still needs to be quantified to which extent the variations in the ocean drive variations in the atmosphere and over land. In particular, although a clear impact of the Tropics on the midlatitudes has been demonstrated, it is unclear if and how the extratropical atmosphere responds to midlatitudinal sea surface temperature anomalies. Although the mechanisms behind the decadal to multidecadal variability in the Atlantic sector are still controversial, there is some consensus that some of the longer-term multidecadal variability is driven by variations in the thermohaline circulation. The variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation appear to be predictable one to two decades ahead, as shown by a number of perfect model predictability experiments. The next few decades will be dominated by these multidecadal variations, although the effects of anthropogenic climate change are likely to introduce trends. Some impact of the variations of the thermohaline circulation on the atmosphere has been demonstrated in some studies so that useful decadal predictions with economic benefit may be possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The question of the impact of the Atlantic on North American (NA) seasonal prediction skill and predictability is examined. Basic material is collected from the literature, a review of seasonal forecast procedures in Canada and the United States, and some fresh calculations using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. The general impression is one of low predictability (due to the Atlantic) for seasonal mean surface temperature and precipitation over NA. Predictability may be slightly better in the Caribbean and the (sub)tropical Americas, even for precipitation. The NAO is widely seen as an agent making the Atlantic influence felt in NA. While the NAO is well established in most months, its prediction skill is limited. Year-round evidence for an equatorially displaced version of the NAO (named ED_NAO) carrying a good fraction of the variance is also found. In general the predictability from the Pacific is thought to dominate over that from the Atlantic sector, which explains the minimal number of reported Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs that explore Atlantic-only impacts. Caveats are noted as to the question of the influence of a single predictor in a nonlinear environment with many predictors. Skill of a new one-tier global coupled atmosphere–ocean model system at NCEP is reviewed; limited skill is found in midlatitudes and there is modest predictability to look forward to. There are several signs of enthusiasm in the community about using “trends” (low-frequency variations): (a) seasonal forecast tools include persistence of last 10 years’ averaged anomaly (relative to the official 30-yr climatology), (b) hurricane forecasts are based largely on recognizing a global multidecadal mode (which is similar to an Atlantic trend mode in SST), and (c) two recent papers, one empirical and one modeling, giving equal roles to the (North) Pacific and Atlantic in “explaining” variations in drought frequency over NA on a 20 yr or longer time scale during the twentieth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies multiple regimes and low-frequency oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere zonal-mean zonal flow in winter, using 55 yr of daily observational data. The probability density function estimated in the phase space spanned by the two leading empirical orthogonal functions exhibits two distinct, statistically significant maxima. The two regimes associated with these maxima describe persistent zonal-flow states that are characterized by meridional displacements of the midlatitude jet, poleward and equatorward of its time-mean position. The geopotential height anomalies of either regime have a pronounced zonally symmetric component, but largest-amplitude anomalies are located over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. High-frequency synoptic transients participate in the maintenance of and transitions between these regimes. Significant oscillatory components with periods of 147 and 72 days are identified by spectral analysis of the zonal-flow time series. These oscillations are described by singular spectrum analysis and the multitaper method. The 147-day oscillation involves zonal-flow anomalies that propagate poleward, while the 72-day oscillation only manifests northward propagation in the Atlantic sector. Both modes mainly describe changes in the midlatitude jet position and intensity. In the horizontal plane though, the two modes exhibit synchronous centers of action located over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The two persistent flow regimes are associated with slow phases of either oscillation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal variation of the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is investigated by using a linear, one-layer reduced-gravity ocean model and by analyzing sea surface height (SSH) data from Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon (T/P) altimeters. The T/P data indicate that the seasonal variability of the NECC geostrophic transport, between 3° and 10°N, is dominated by SSH changes in the southern flank of the current. Since the southern boundary of the NECC is located partially within the equatorial waveguide, the SSH variation there can be influenced considerably by the equatorial dynamics. Therefore, it is hypothesized that the wind stress forcing along the equator is the leading driver for the seasonal cycle of the NECC transport. The wind stress curl in the NECC region is an important but smaller contributor. This hypothesis is tested by several sensitivity experiments that are designed to separate the two forcing mechanisms. In the first sensitivity run, a wind stress field that has a zero curl is used to force the ocean model. The result shows that the NECC geostrophic transport retains most of its seasonal variability. The same happens in another experiment in which the seasonal wind stress is applied only within a narrow band along the equator outside the NECC range. To further demonstrate the role of equatorial waves, another experiment was run in which the wind stress in the Southern Hemisphere is altered so that the model excludes hemispherically symmetrical waves (Kelvin waves and odd-numbered meridional modes of equatorial Rossby waves) and instead excites only the antisymmetrical equatorial Rossby modes. The circulation in the northern tropical ocean, including the NECC, is affected considerably even though the local wind stress there remains unchanged. All these appear to support the hypothesis presented in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent observations have shown evidence of intraseasonal oscillations (with periods of approximately 1–2 months) in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic trade winds. In this paper, the oceanic response to the observed intraseasonal wind variability is addressed through an analysis of the surface mixed layer heat balance, focusing on three locations in the northwestern tropical Atlantic where in situ measurements from moored buoys are available (14.5°N, 51°W; 15°N, 38°W; and 18°N, 34°W). It is found that local heat storage at all three locations is balanced primarily by wind-induced latent heat loss, which is the same mechanism that is believed to play a dominant role on interannual and decadal time scales in the region. It is also found that the intraseasonal wind speed oscillations are linked to changes in surface wind convergence and convection over the western equatorial Atlantic warm pool. These atmospheric circulation anomalies and wind-induced SST anomalies potentially feed back on one another to affect longer time-scale variability in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A thorough analysis of the stability of the uncoupled Rooth interhemispheric three-box model of thermohaline circulation (THC) is presented. The model consists of a northern high-latitude box, a tropical box, and a southern high-latitude box, which correspond to the northern, tropical, and southern Atlantic Ocean, respectively. Restoring boundary conditions are adopted for the temperature variables, and flux boundary conditions are adopted for the salinity variables. This paper examines how the strength of THC changes when the system undergoes forcings that are analogous to those of global warming conditions by applying the equilibrium state perturbations to the moisture and heat fluxes into the three boxes. In each class of experiments, using suitably defined metrics, the authors determine the boundary dividing the set of forcing scenarios that lead the system to equilibria characterized by a THC pattern similar to the present one from those that drive the system to equilibria with a reversed THC. Fast increases in the moisture flux into the northern high-latitude box are more effective than slow increases in leading the THC to a breakdown, while the increases of moisture flux into the southern high-latitude box strongly inhibit the breakdown and can prevent it, as in the case of slow increases in the Northern Hemisphere. High rates of heat flux increase in the Northern Hemisphere destabilize the system more effectively than low ones; increases in the heat fluxes in the Southern Hemisphere tend to stabilize the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although skillful seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin are now a reality, large gaps remain in our understanding of observed variations in the distribution of activity within the hurricane season. The month of August roughly spans the first third of the climatologically most active part of the season, but activity during the month is quite variable. This paper reports on an initial investigation into forecasting year-to-year variability of August tropical cyclone (TC) activity using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. It is shown that 55%–75% of the variance of August TC activity can be hindcast using a combination of 4–5 global predictors chosen from a 12-predictor pool with each of the predictors showing precursor associations with TC activity. The most prominent predictive signal is the equatorial July 200-mb wind off the west coast of South America. When this wind is anomalously strong from the northeast during July, Atlantic TC activity in August is almost always enhanced. Other July conditions associated with active Augusts include a weak subtropical high in the North Atlantic, an enhanced subtropical high in the northwest Pacific, and low pressure in the Bering Sea region. The most important application of the August-only forecast is that predicted net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity in August has a significant relationship with the incidence of U.S. August TC landfall events. Better understanding of August-only TC variability will allow for a more complete perspective of total seasonal variability and, as such, assist in making better seasonal forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A method based on the synergistic use of low earth orbit and geostationary earth orbit satellite data for aerosol-type characterization and aerosol optical thickness (AOT: τa) retrieval and monitoring over the ocean is presented in Part I of this paper. The method is now applied to a strong dust outbreak over the Atlantic Ocean in June 1997 and to two other relevant transport events of biomass burning and desert dust aerosol that occurred in 2000 over the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, respectively. The retrievals of the aerosol optical properties are checked against retrievals from sun and sky radiance measurements from the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). The single-scattering albedo values obtained from AERONET are always within the error bars presented for Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) retrievals, resulting in differences lower than 0.041. The retrieved AOT values are compared with the independent space–time-collocated measurements from the AERONET, as well as to the satellite aerosol official products of the Polarization and Directionality of the Earth Reflectances (POLDER) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). A first estimate of the AOT accuracy derived from comparisons with AERONET data leads to ±0.02 ± 0.22τa when all AOT values are retained or to ±0.02 ± 0.16τa for aerosol transport events (AOT > 0.4). The upwelling flux at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) was computed with radiative transfer calculations and used to estimate the TOA direct shortwave aerosol radiative forcing; a comparison with space–time-collocated measurements from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) TOA flux product was also done. It was found that more than 90% of the values differ from CERES fluxes by less than ±15%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The historical dataset provided by 700-m acoustically tracked floats is analyzed in different regions of the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. The goal is to characterize the main properties of the mesoscale turbulence and to explore Lagrangian stochastic models capable of describing them. The data analysis is carried out mostly in terms of Lagrangian velocity autocovariance and cross-covariance functions. In the Gulf Stream recirculation and extension regions, the autocovariances and cross covariances exhibit significant oscillatory patterns on time scales comparable to the Lagrangian decorrelation time scale. They are indicative of sub- and superdiffusive behaviors in the mean spreading of water particles. The main result of the paper is that the properties of Lagrangian data can be considered as a superposition of two different regimes associated with looping and nonlooping trajectories and that both regimes can be parameterized using a simple first-order Lagrangian stochastic model with spin parameter Ω. The spin couples the zonal and meridional velocity components, reproducing the effects of rotating coherent structures such as vortices and mesoscale eddies. It is considered as a random parameter whose probability distribution is approximately bimodal, reflecting the distribution of loopers (finite Ω) and nonloopers (zero Ω). This simple model is found to be very effective in reproducing the statistical properties of the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A predictability analysis developed within a general framework of linear stochastic dynamics in a companion paper is applied to a simple coupled climate model of tropical Atlantic variability (TAV). The simple model extends the univariate stochastic climate model of Hasselmann by including positive air–sea feedback and heat advection by mean ocean currents. The interplay between the positive air–sea feedback and the negative oceanic feedbacks gives rise to oscillatory coupled modes. The relationship between these coupled modes and the system's predictability is explored for a wide range of coupled regimes. It is shown that the system's predictability cannot be simply determined from oscillatory behavior of the dominant coupled mode when coupling is weak. The predictable dynamics of the weakly coupled system depend upon the interference among many coupled modes and the spatial structures of the stochastic forcing. Using the simple model as an example, the concept of optimizing the predictability of a linear stochastic system is illustrated. The implication of these results for the predictability of weakly coupled climate systems in the real world is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a method for obtaining the mean structure of the temperature, specific volume anomaly, and velocity of an ocean current, using isopycnal float data combined with gravest empirical mode (GEM) fields calculated from historical hydrography. A GEM field is a projection on a geostrophic streamfunction space of hydrographic data, which captures most of the vertical structure associated with frontal regions. This study focuses on the North Atlantic Current–subpolar front (NAC–SPF) current system, but the float–GEM method has broad applicability to baroclinic ocean currents in general. The NAC–SPF current system is of climatic interest, being an important conduit of warm salty waters into the northern North Atlantic. It constitutes the upper limb of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic Ocean and plays a crucial role in the moderation of European climate, but uncertainties regarding its transport and corresponding heat fluxes remain, mainly because the structure of the system is not well known. This paper shows how isopycnal floats can be used to obtain such estimates. The performance of the float–GEM method is tested in two ways. First, two synoptic hydrographic sections (one across the NAC and the other across the SPF) are reconstructed from simulated isopycnal float pressure measurements. The baroclinic transports of volume and temperature (relative to 1000 dbar) across the sections are well reproduced by the method: the float–GEM transport estimates have an accuracy of ±20% and a precision of ±15% or less, which result in deviations of less than ±10% from the “real” values. In the second test, horizontal maps of pressure and temperature on the δ = -12.7 × 10[sup -8] m[sup 3] kg[sup -1] specific volume anomaly surface (σ[sub θ] ≈ 27.5 kg m[sup -3] ) are produced, using RAFOS float data from two experiments that sampled the region from 1993 to 2000. These maps compare well with similar maps constructed in previous studies and establish the consistency of the method. The good performance of the float–GEM method gives confidence in this novel way of using isopycnal floats to obtain information on the structure of the ocean. Combined with the velocity measured by the floats, it has the potential to estimate absolute transports and heat fluxes along the NAC–SPF system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variability of the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) of water warmer than 28.58C, which extends seasonally over parts of the eastern North Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the western tropical North Atlantic (TNA), was previously studied by Wang and Enfield using the da Silva data from 1945-93. Using additional datasets of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis field and the NCEP SST from 1950-99, and the Levitus climatological subsurface temperature, the present paper confirms and extends the previous study of Wang and Enfield. The WHWP alternates with northern South America as the seasonal heating source for the Walker and Hadley circulations in the Western Hemisphere. During the boreal winter a strong Hadley cell emanates northward from the Amazon heat source with subsidence over the subtropical North Atlantic north of 20°N, sustaining a strong North Atlantic anticyclone and associated northeast (NE) trade winds over its southern limb in the TNA. This circulation, including the NE trades, is weakened during Pacific El Niño winters and results in a spring warming of the TNA, which in turn induces the development of an unusually large summer warm pool and a wetter Caribbean rainy season. As the WHWP develops in the late boreal spring, the center of tropospheric heating and convection shifts to the WHWP region, whence the summer Hadley circulation emanates from the WHWP and forks into the subsidence regions of the subtropical South Atlantic and South Pacific. During the summers following El Niño, when the warm pool is larger than normal, the increased Hadley flow into the subtropical South Pacific reinforces the South Pacific anticyclone and trade winds, probably playing a role in the transition back to the cool phase of ENSO. Seasonally, surface heat fluxes seem to be primarily responsible for warming of the WHWP. Interannually, all of the datasets suggest that a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback through longwave radiation and... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite marked improvements in the predictability of rapidly deepening extratropical cyclones, many operational models still have great difficulties in predicting frontal cyclogenesis that often begins as a mesoscale vortex embedded in a large-scale (parent) cyclone system. In this paper, a 60-h simulation and analysis of a family of frontal cyclones that were generated over the western Atlantic Ocean during 13-15 March 1992 are performed using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model with a fine-mesh grid size of 30 km. Although it is initialized with conventional observations, the model reproduces well the genesis, track and intensity of the frontal cyclones, their associated thermal structure and precipitation pattern, as well as their surface circulations, as verified against the Canadian Meteorological Centre analysis and other available observations. It is shown that each frontal cyclone is initiated successively to the southwest of its predecessor in the cold sector, first appearing as a pressure trough superposed on a baroclinically unstable basic state in the lowest 150-300 hPa. Then, it derives kinetic energy from the low-level available potential energy as it moves over an underlying warm ocean surface (with weak static stability) toward a leading large-scale frontal zone and deepens rapidly by release of latent heat occurring in its own circulations. One of the frontal cyclones, originating in the cold air mass, deepens 44 hPa in 42 h and overwhelms the parent cyclone after passing over the warm Gulf Stream water into the leading frontal zone. These cyclones have diameters ranging from 500 to 1100 km (as denoted by the last closed isobar) and are spaced 1000-1400 km apart (between their circulation centers) during the mature stage. They begin to establish their own cold/warm frontal circulations once their first closed isobars appear, thus distorting the leading large-scale frontal structures and... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]