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A conference paper about U.S.-China conflict due to Taiwan is presented which was discussed at the 2012 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, from August 30-September 2, 2012. The paper discusses topics including China's emerging global influence in the post-Cold War era and the U.S. involvement in the Taiwan Strait conflict.

A conference paper about militarized conflict in the cross-strait relations is presented which was prepared for presentation at the 2012 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, from August 30-September 2, 2012. The paper discusses topics including the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangular relationships and the alliance-like arrangement between Taiwan and the U.S.

This paper examines the impact of democratization on Taiwan's foreign policy making. For fifty years, the ruling Koumintang determined Taiwan's China policy. The democratization that made possible the election of President Chen Shui-bian, however, complicated foreign policy making by allowing the participation of more voices in Taiwan's politics. For the past five years, the now opposition KMT and other parties have challenged Chen's China policy with a vastly different foreign policy agenda. This paper examines their views, and the influence of party cleavage on Taiwan's China policy. It seeks to answer the following questions: In Taiwan, does "politics stop at the water's edge"? (i.e., is there strong coordination among national officials and politicians), or is the state "disaggregated" with different elements (e.g., political parties) conducting semi-autonomous foreign policies in the service if disparate societal interests? ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explains why democratization destabilizes some asymmetric alliances more than others. I argue that democratization has the potential to destabilize asymmetric alliances because it unleashes a powerful force of nationalism in the political arena. Nationalist elites who come to power in democratizing states view military dependence and resultant foreign influence as a humiliating encroachment of sovereignty. Therefore, they demand an autonomous, equal partnership often in disregard of power disparity within the alliance. The major ally in turn resents their seemingly ungrateful demands and unreasonable policies, and therefore shows a decreased interest in the alliance. As a result of these frictions, the alliance becomes less stable. Democratization, however, does not evenly affect asymmetric alliances because it occurs in different threat environments and takes divergent paths. These factors mitigate or amplify the destructive potential of nationalist sentiments that democratization unleashes. This paper tests these arguments by analyzing three asymmetric alliances in which a weaker member democratized since the late 1980s: U.S. alignments with South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although in the long term, democratization is expected to exert pacifying effects on international relations, scholars have argued that conflict is more likely during democratic transitions. They argue that politicians in democratizing states are more likely to make jingoistic appeals, and coalitions of political, business, and/or military leaders are likely to form and to ?logroll? for military buildups and other destabilizing policies. This proposition has great significance for East Asia, which faces two potential political transitions: the democratization of China, and Korean unification. This paper tests a theory of democratization and conflict in the cases of three previous East Asian political transitions: Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. I test not only for the occurrence of conflict, but also for the presence of the predicted mechanisms through which conflict occurs (nationalistic appeals and logrolling). I find that although there is some evidence of nationalistic posturing that is consistent with the theory?s predictions, for the most part, evidence from these cases does not support the theory. Leaders did not make jingoistic appeals; they were more likely to preach stability. Furthermore, I find that the public, the military, and the business community do have substantial influence over policy makers, but do not find that these groups advocated military buildups or offensive military strategies. This study casts doubt on the relevance of the ?democratization and war? thesis for future East Asian political transitions; it finds support for theories in the liberal school of international relations, including the beneficial effects of democratization, policies of engagement, and economic integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that, like fashion, national identity may be influenced by ‘neighbors’ in a broadly defined sense. Inspired by collective choice theories, we hypothesize that, in Taiwan, a subethnically divided society facing a dilemma in its relationship with China, people sample and observe their fellow county/city residents and occupational peers, and they are subject to mutual influence in the formation of their national identity. Methodologically, we suggest that spatial econometrics is suitable for investigating neighborhood effects with survey data. Our empirical findings provide strong evidence that, in both 1996 and 2000, the formation of national identity in Taiwan indeed exhibited such effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An examination of trends in Taiwan's national identity in the recent past reveals that important changes have occurred that seem to point to an increasing Taiwanization of identity on the island. However, there is also evidence that national identity opinions do not break down neatly into well-delineated Taiwanese and Chinese categories and that national identity in Taiwan is a complex affair. This paper is an introduction to the issues that inform national identity questions in Taiwan and an attempt to elucidate questions that often arise when examining this issue area. Over a decade after the end of martial law and the beginning of Taiwan's experiment in democracy, what can be said of the national identity of the people of Taiwan? Is Taiwan the first Chinese democracy, or a budding new nation of its own? What is the state of national identity in Taiwan and what are its implications for the future of the island and its relations with China? Use of historical, structural, and cultural information gleaned from surveys, interviews, and cultural studies leads to the conclusion that extreme opinions in identity debates do not entirely explain the majority of opinion located between the extremes and that the opinions of this middle are often seemingly contradictory. The majority of Taiwanese continue to show elements of both a Chinese and a Taiwanese identity but unevenly, depending on what issue is in question. This perplexity has important repercussions for the political future of Taiwan and its relations with China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the changing nature of China's policy toward Taiwan. Many of the sharpest debates in Taiwan, the US and elsewhere have been over whether recent modifications in policy represent a genuine overhaul in Beijing's approach to Taipei. To simplify, some argue that meaningful change already is happening and that such developments warrant careful study and attention. But skeptics conclude that it isn't happening. As one Taiwanese lawmaker complained, the new strategy is designed to "undermine the power of the [Taiwan] government…it's a poison coated with sugar." After analyzing various indicators, this study shows how theories and/or conceptual frameworks often employed in the fields of international relations and comparative politics might help analysts unravel some parts of the complicated puzzle that constitutes China's policy toward Taiwan. In conclusion, however, the author suggests that it is probable that decision-makers in Taipei will require more facts—not theories—before they agree that there is a genuine "paradigm shift" in Beijing's approach to the thorny Taiwan dispute. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the factors that contribute to the different policy positions of Taiwan residents toward either unification or independence. Association of the citizens' perception of threats on their position regarding the island's future relations with China; Linkage between identity and policy preferences as mediated by levels of security/insecurity; Effect of democratization on the citizens' policy preferences.

Identifies variables that should be considered in assessing a country’s civilian will to fight, using Taiwan as a case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cross-Strait exchanges have flourished since the late 1980s despite continuing hostility between Beijing and Taipei. Chinese leaders believe that through cross-Strait exchanges in trade, investment, tourism, and other forms of people-to-people contacts, Beijing can influence Taipei’s policies from within and create a favorable environment for China’s unification with Taiwan. Taipei officials have been keeping a watchful eye on the increasing economic ties between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and have adopted a series of measures to keep the island at a distance from the mainland. The belief by officials of both Beijing and Taipei that increasing cross-Strait exchanges would lead to a more sympathetic public opinion in Taiwan to China is an interesting hypothesis. Utilizing recently collected survey data, this research finds that Taiwanese respondents having more contacts with the Chinese mainland have shown a clear tendency of supporting lesser restrictions on cross-Strait economic exchanges. While Beijing’s tactics on the economic front appear to be working, few Taiwanese citizens, however, have gone beyond these economic demands to support Beijing’s unification proposal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite China’s repeated assurance of her peaceable foreign policy intentions and ‘never seek hegemony’ claims, skeptics rebuke these as mere smoke screen that covers her ambitious forward thrust, as evidenced by, for example, China’s ‘aggressive’ moves in South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Some China specialists, from both academic and policy-making circles, affirm that China is more prone to using force to settle territorial disputes, which implicitly assumes that it is China’s inherent preference to resort to militarized confrontation in territorial conflicts. However, one wonders whether this is a true reflection of China’s foreign policy preferences? Furthermore, if her preferences can be identified, are they invariant or are they subject to change under certain external and internal conditions? This study aims to identify China’s preferences by employing a positive methodology, the Boolean algebraic approach, to determine the conditions under which China would be likely to resort to force in international disputes, and then extrapolates from the derived result to depict a probable scenario in the future of South China Sea territorial controversies. A unique advantage of the Boolean approach is that it not only identifies the very specific combination of variables that would lead to certain results, it also elucidates the causal conditions that bring about the outcomes. Based on the examination of China’s past (1949-1996) international disputes, the current analysis indicates that a conflict that involves sovereignty and ideological controversies or pure territorial disputes would not easily escalate into militarized confrontation unless there lack any check-and-balance effects from international institutions. These findings suggest that China’s preferences are not necessarily fixed, and that international institutional mechanisms have a substantial impact in shaping her preferences and their policy implementations regarding territorial disputes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is argued that Taipei’s recent drive to assert its separate and independent status from China in the international community is primarily due to an emerging national identity in Taiwan. Utilizing recently collected survey data, this research aims to explore the dimensions of the emerging national identity on the island and its association with the islanders’ policy preferences on Taiwan’s future relations with the Chinese mainland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is 1) to cross-regionally investigate the exact influences of international security and geopolitical order on the process of democratization in Taiwan and Hungary, and 2) to further develop a more general model suitable to comparatively investigating the relationship between geopolitical/security orders and domestic democratization. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents an analysis of the sources, incentives, and constraints of the policies of Taiwan to cope with the growth of China. An overview of Taiwan's state in transition during hard times is given, along with the impacts of globalization on the country. It examines the key role of China in the strategies of Taiwan to cope with the hard times as well as discusses the issues on the political implications on Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement and political identity.

The author examines whether the foreign policy of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian are as inexplicable or counterproductive as critics claim. He constructs a model of asymmetric dyadic alliance relations. He tests three causal mechanisms that explain confrontations between Taiwan and the U.S. He also juxtaposes Chen's foreign policy with that of previous Taiwanese presidents. The author concludes that Chen's U.S. policy is not nearly as maverick or foolhardly as critics claim.

Definitions of public diplomacy are presented and compared, and essential elements are extracted. The effects on modern public diplomacy of advanced communications technology, the growth of civil society, and the proliferation of democracy and the expansion of free markets are examined. These explain how the field is evolving in the current globalized era from policy-oriented approach to include a limits focus.In light of these changes, Taiwan's approach to public diplomacy is reviewed. Past programs are discussed, and new initiatives are suggested to take advantage of a limits focused approach. This has particular relevance given the recent elections in Taiwan and the consolidation of democracy following two successful, peaceful regime changes. Recommendations include centralizing public diplomacy activities in one non-partisan office, focusing more directly on generating international goodwill towards Taiwan, and limiting the options of others regarding Taiwanese issues. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1980s, changing national identities have transformed the China-Taiwan and Korean conflicts. Democratization in Taiwan and South Korea, and liberalization in China, have forced leaders to compete for popular legitimacy by appealing to national identities. Along with the collapse of the Soviet Union, these contested national identities have been the main factors driving change in the conflicts—pushing China and Taiwan inexorably apart and toward a showdown, while helping to sustain what appeared to be a mortally wounded North Korea. This explains why one U.S. ally, Taiwan, has become more hawkish, while the other, South Korea, has turned more dovish. These foreign policy changes, in turn, have reinforced changes in underlying national identities. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the interaction of domestic and international factors in determining relations and policies associated with Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait. It considers the possibility of direct military confrontation between the U.S. and its regional challenger, China, over Taiwan. A review of the literature on cross-Strait and the triangular relations of U.S.-China-Taiwan is presented. It considers the impact of U.S. presidential elections on the China policy since 1980.