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A conference paper about U.S.-China conflict due to Taiwan is presented which was discussed at the 2012 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, from August 30-September 2, 2012. The paper discusses topics including China's emerging global influence in the post-Cold War era and the U.S. involvement in the Taiwan Strait conflict.

A conference paper about militarized conflict in the cross-strait relations is presented which was prepared for presentation at the 2012 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, from August 30-September 2, 2012. The paper discusses topics including the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangular relationships and the alliance-like arrangement between Taiwan and the U.S.

This paper examines the various impacts of contemporary globalization on national security, with special reference to the migration of the Taiwanese semiconductor industry to China and its security challenges to the United States, Taiwan and China. The paper adheres to a sectoral approach to the study of globalization-security interconnections and adopts a broadly based definition of security pertaining to the case study in question that encompasses economic, technological and defense security. The analysis of the subject matter is grounded in evidence collected in more than 140 interviews with chip industry, defense sector and government insiders in the US and Asia, as well as English-language and Chinese-language secondary data. On sectoral migration, the paper argues that the scope of the migration is extensive, the direction complicated, the cause multiple, and the outcome significant in boosting the development of the indigenous Chinese chip industry. It has been discovered that some Taiwanese non-state chip actors have violated government regulations in the process of spearheading the migration, and some have even forged business ties with their PRC counterparts associated with the PLA. As for the ensuing security ramifications, it is argued that there is no immediate security risk involved, although long-term strategic repercussions are paramount. The depth and scope of the continuous sectoral migration in years to come will determine the level of economic security risks faced by the US and Taiwan. Long-term technological and defense security repercussions need to take into account two important elements at play: technological change in the sector (increasing commercial-to-military spin-on and dual-use nature of the chip technology), and the PRC dual-track (economic and defense) grand strategy behind its resolve to upgrade its indigenous chip capability. Four pertinent aspects are analyzed: (a) concerns over the PRC chip industrial base, its contribution to the PLA modernization and the ensuing shift in the balance of power in Beijing's favour; (b) technology-related misgivings over the trustworthy supplies of chips for the US and Taiwanese military end uses, as well as the shrinking "chip gap"; (c) fear of denial of chip supply due to foreign dependency; (d) dubious implementation of export control policies at the unilateral and the multilateral level that exacerbate some of the above security repercussions. The concluding section elucidates how the case study helps to show the impact of globalization on security as far as the agency and scope of security, the autonomy and capacity of the state, as well as the balance of power are concerned. To sum up, the study offers a fresh look at the complex security repercussions of the globalization of a strategic industry that occurs in a politically sensitive region in world politics today. It not only helps us disentangle an important policy issue, but also advances our theoretical understanding of the globalization-security interconnections in international relations today. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of democratization on Taiwan's foreign policy making. For fifty years, the ruling Koumintang determined Taiwan's China policy. The democratization that made possible the election of President Chen Shui-bian, however, complicated foreign policy making by allowing the participation of more voices in Taiwan's politics. For the past five years, the now opposition KMT and other parties have challenged Chen's China policy with a vastly different foreign policy agenda. This paper examines their views, and the influence of party cleavage on Taiwan's China policy. It seeks to answer the following questions: In Taiwan, does "politics stop at the water's edge"? (i.e., is there strong coordination among national officials and politicians), or is the state "disaggregated" with different elements (e.g., political parties) conducting semi-autonomous foreign policies in the service if disparate societal interests? ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper begins with an historical and then topical treatment of environmentalism in Taiwan, focusing on changes to the strategies and objectives of environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) as the Taiwan state underwent democratic consolidation after the 2000 presidential election. Then the paper considers the rise of environmental groups in China, which in 2005 remains under Leninist party- state control. The paper concludes with a comparison of Taiwan and China, surveying the significant differences between the ENGO portfolios of the two states. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the changing nature of China's policy toward Taiwan. Many of the sharpest debates in Taiwan, the US and elsewhere have been over whether recent modifications in policy represent a genuine overhaul in Beijing's approach to Taipei. To simplify, some argue that meaningful change already is happening and that such developments warrant careful study and attention. But skeptics conclude that it isn't happening. As one Taiwanese lawmaker complained, the new strategy is designed to "undermine the power of the [Taiwan] government…it's a poison coated with sugar." After analyzing various indicators, this study shows how theories and/or conceptual frameworks often employed in the fields of international relations and comparative politics might help analysts unravel some parts of the complicated puzzle that constitutes China's policy toward Taiwan. In conclusion, however, the author suggests that it is probable that decision-makers in Taipei will require more facts—not theories—before they agree that there is a genuine "paradigm shift" in Beijing's approach to the thorny Taiwan dispute. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing and interactive processes of democratization, nation building and nationalism in Taiwan have a fundamental influence on the dynamics of cross-Strait relations (Chu 2004, Wu 2004). The combination of electoral competition and an evolving politicized discourse on Taiwanese national identity have rendered Taipei the most dynamic and volatile actor in CSR. However, in the absence of diplomatic communication channels between Taipei and Beijing, high-level interaction between Taiwan and China has predominantly taken the form of unilateral public pronouncements. Since the mid-1990's cross-Strait relations have followed a cyclical pattern of "working silence" punctuated by "provocative statements" issued by Li Deng-hui, and since 2000 Chen Shui-bian. Whether indicative of strategic calculation, deep-seated conviction or electoral contingency, President Chen's propensity to issue statements of the "one country on each side" type have resulted in his being characterized as a "pro-independence President" (Ross 2006). In consequence, conciliatory statements and Chen's insistence on decoupling "democratic reforms" such as referenda and constitution reform and non-confrontational expressions of Taiwanese identity from "Taiwan independence" have fallen on deaf ears. In this paper we investigate the content and strategy of Chen Shui-bian's public utterances by seeking to answer three questions: First, is the characterization of Chen as a "pro-independence president" accurate, or is it possible to distinguish advocacy of "Taiwan independence" broadly defined, from a qualitatively different "national identity" discourse? Second, how much variation in the content of Chen's speeches can be explained by his strategic relationship with the group to whom the speech is addressed? Third, what structure underlies the timing and locations of "pro-independence" proclamations that might help us understand Chen's presidential discourse? ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that, like fashion, national identity may be influenced by ‘neighbors’ in a broadly defined sense. Inspired by collective choice theories, we hypothesize that, in Taiwan, a subethnically divided society facing a dilemma in its relationship with China, people sample and observe their fellow county/city residents and occupational peers, and they are subject to mutual influence in the formation of their national identity. Methodologically, we suggest that spatial econometrics is suitable for investigating neighborhood effects with survey data. Our empirical findings provide strong evidence that, in both 1996 and 2000, the formation of national identity in Taiwan indeed exhibited such effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An examination of trends in Taiwan's national identity in the recent past reveals that important changes have occurred that seem to point to an increasing Taiwanization of identity on the island. However, there is also evidence that national identity opinions do not break down neatly into well-delineated Taiwanese and Chinese categories and that national identity in Taiwan is a complex affair. This paper is an introduction to the issues that inform national identity questions in Taiwan and an attempt to elucidate questions that often arise when examining this issue area. Over a decade after the end of martial law and the beginning of Taiwan's experiment in democracy, what can be said of the national identity of the people of Taiwan? Is Taiwan the first Chinese democracy, or a budding new nation of its own? What is the state of national identity in Taiwan and what are its implications for the future of the island and its relations with China? Use of historical, structural, and cultural information gleaned from surveys, interviews, and cultural studies leads to the conclusion that extreme opinions in identity debates do not entirely explain the majority of opinion located between the extremes and that the opinions of this middle are often seemingly contradictory. The majority of Taiwanese continue to show elements of both a Chinese and a Taiwanese identity but unevenly, depending on what issue is in question. This perplexity has important repercussions for the political future of Taiwan and its relations with China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reconsiders the effectiveness of pivotal deterrence in light of the political and economic changes in Taiwan and China. The paper concludes that although the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity in the Taiwan Strait has changed to become a less ambiguous policy, pivotal deterrence is still effective, but requires careful threats and assurances to both China and Taiwan. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The political conditions in the Hong Kong-China-Taiwan Triangle, where three adjacent entities are united by common language and culture, but separated by different, sometimes mutually hostile, political and customs jurisdictions, creates a situation that encourages smuggling along certain routes, and decreases the security of the entities within the Triangle, particularly Taiwan. The Triangle is also unusual inasmuch as there is some evidence that the political geographic conditions encourage illicit flows to other countries in the region, and further afield, leading to the peculiar situation where poorer countries are suffering spillover effects from relatively rich, relatively peaceful countries. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stock markets around the world do not conform to a single model, but systematically vary according to the types of companies listed, the composition of investors, the role of the state as a regulator and/or a participant, and the political foundation for their creation and operation. This study analyzes stock markets in China and Taiwan to explore the hypothesis that political regime type strongly influences the type of stock market institutions that are created in a given country. In both cases, stock markets were established under authoritarian regimes with developmental emphases. Comparing China against Taiwan allows me to examine the effect of socialist versus non-socialist authoritarianism on the nature of political imperatives that shape stock market institutions. I find that the role of the party-state in domestic financial markets differs substantially in China and Taiwan. While in China the state is a key participant in stock markets, in Taiwan the role of the Kuomintang party eclipses the role of the state. This trend has been reinforced since Taiwan's democratization in the late 1980s. Finally, this article asks what, if any, have been the contributions of stock market financing to economic development in these cases? The East Asian developmental state model places a higher emphasis on the role of bank-led finance in development. To date, this expectation continues to hold in the Chinese case. The stock market in Taiwan, however, has begun to move toward a more important role in allocating capital in the post-developmental state era. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1980s, changing national identities have transformed the China-Taiwan and Korean conflicts. Democratization in Taiwan and South Korea, and liberalization in China, have forced leaders to compete for popular legitimacy by appealing to national identities. Along with the collapse of the Soviet Union, these contested national identities have been the main factors driving change in the conflicts—pushing China and Taiwan inexorably apart and toward a showdown, while helping to sustain what appeared to be a mortally wounded North Korea. This explains why one U.S. ally, Taiwan, has become more hawkish, while the other, South Korea, has turned more dovish. These foreign policy changes, in turn, have reinforced changes in underlying national identities. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do policymakers respond differently to speculative exchange market pressure on their cur-rencies? When deciding about defending or depreciating their currencies against such pressure, policymakers consider private sector vulnerabilities to a depreciation and monetary tightening. These vulnerabilities differ between periods of mild and severe pressure. Faced with mild pres-sure, interest groups evaluate the effects of the two policy options based only on their vulnerabil-ity to depreciation. Only when pressure intensifies, they increasingly take the trade-off between their depreciation vulnerability and their vulnerability to interest-rate increases into account. High interest-rate vulnerabilities can result in a re-assessment of the preferred policy response, leading groups that initially preferred a defense to prefer a depreciation when the pressure intensifies. Comparative case studies of speculative attacks on the currencies of Hong Kong, Korea, Thailand and Taiwan support the argument's empirical implications. The case studies show that policy-makers strongly defended their currencies against mild pressure when the private sector's vulner-ability to depreciation was high. In countries, where interest group vulnerabilities to interest-rate increases exceeded the potential costs of a depreciation, these defenses were subsequently aban-doned when pressure intensified. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have produced a considerable amount of scholarship which significantly contributes to our understanding of how individual votes. What is under-explored in this scholarship is an analysis of the effects of external threats on vote decisions. Utilizing survey data collected by the Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) Project, this study examine the hypothesis that Taiwanese citizens' vote choices in the 2004 presidential election are conditional on their perceptions of threats, i.e., the possibility of military attacks from China and the likelihood of armed interventions by the United States on Taiwan's behalf. When respondents perceive a high level of threats, they are less likely to vote for candidates who proposed policies that would result in cross-Strait conflicts. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the interaction of domestic and international factors in determining relations and policies associated with Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait. It considers the possibility of direct military confrontation between the U.S. and its regional challenger, China, over Taiwan. A review of the literature on cross-Strait and the triangular relations of U.S.-China-Taiwan is presented. It considers the impact of U.S. presidential elections on the China policy since 1980.

The article examines the fundamental aspects of China's unification with Taiwan using survey data collected in Taiwan. The researcher considers the island residents' changing national identity and policy preferences regarding Taiwan's future relations with China. The survey revealed that less than 10% of the residents subscribe to the greater Chinese nationalism, while the majority of them sees the island as an independent and separate political entity from the Chinese mainland.

The article offers a game theoretic view of the Taiwan issue. It is stated that the U.S. strategic ambiguity policy may or may not deter a conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan. It may or may not deter from pursuing bolder measures to gain independence from China. As such, it is an effective policy in deterring both China and Taiwan from deviating from equilibrium strategies.

This study examines a controversial area in the realm of American political behavior research?the role of ethnic homeland in the political participation of majority immigrant communities. Is homeland attachment a deterrent or a catalyst of participation in host society politics? How do conceptions of and connections with ethnic homeland influence individual opinion and behavior regarding the society and government in both places of origin and settlement? And, do regime type and international political context matter for this relationship and why? Using the experience of Chinese immigrants from Taiwan in the last half-century as an example, I argue that ethnic homeland cannot be automatically treated either as a constraint or an asset or as exerting an essentialist influence on political behavior. Rather, ?homeland? conceptions and functions are unfixed and structured by an intersecting system of local and global dynamics. The experience of Taiwanese immigrants is an ideal case to test this theory of interaction and volatility, for not only the homeland (island of Taiwan) has endured profound political changes but there are structural changes in the American ethnic population as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the factors that contribute to the different policy positions of Taiwan residents toward either unification or independence. Association of the citizens' perception of threats on their position regarding the island's future relations with China; Linkage between identity and policy preferences as mediated by levels of security/insecurity; Effect of democratization on the citizens' policy preferences.

It is argued that Taipei’s recent drive to assert its separate and independent status from China in the international community is primarily due to an emerging national identity in Taiwan. Utilizing recently collected survey data, this research aims to explore the dimensions of the emerging national identity on the island and its association with the islanders’ policy preferences on Taiwan’s future relations with the Chinese mainland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]