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Biogenic aerosols are relevant for the Earth system, climate, and public health on local, regional, and global scales. Up to now, however, little is known about the diversity and biogeography of airborne microorganisms. We present the first DNA-based analysis of airborne fungi on global scales, showing pronounced geographic patterns and boundaries. In particular we found that the ratio of species richness between Basidiomycota and Ascomycota is much higher in continental air than in marine air. This may be an important difference between the "blue ocean" and "green ocean" regimes in the formation of clouds and precipitation, for which fungal spores can act as nuclei. Our findings also suggest that air flow patterns and the global atmospheric circulation are important for the evolution of microbial ecology and for the understanding of global changes in biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of the attribution of individual events is to estimate whether and to what extent the probability of an extreme climate event evolves when external conditions (e.g., due to anthropogenic forcings) change. Many types of climate extremes are linked to the variability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is hence essential to decipher the roles of atmospheric variability and increasing mean temperature in the change of probabilities of extremes. It is also crucial to define a background state (or counterfactual) to which recent observations are compared. In this paper we present a statistical framework to determine the dynamical (linked to the atmospheric circulation) and thermodynamical (linked to slow forcings) contributions to the probability of extreme climate events. We illustrate this methodology on a record precipitation event that hit southern United Kingdom in January 2014. We compare possibilities for the creation of two states (or "worlds") in which probability change is determined. These two worlds are defined in a large ensemble of atmospheric model simulations (Weather@Home factual and counterfactual simulations) and separate periods (new: 1951-2014, and old: 1900- 1950) in reanalyses and observations. We discuss how the atmospheric circulation conditioning can affect the interpretation of extreme event attribution. We eventually show the qualitative coherence of results between the choice of worlds (factual/counterfactual vs. new/old). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the main features of the weather, climate and climate variability over Andes cordillera in South America on the basis of instrumental observations. We first provide a basic physical understanding of the mean annual cycle of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation and over the Andes and adjacent lowlands. In particular, the diversity of precipitation, temperature and wind patterns is interpreted in terms of the long meridional extent of the Andes and the disruption of the large-scale circulation by this formidable topographic barrier. We also document the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon on the temperature and precipitation regimes along the Andes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric circulation indices can be used to explain the variability of runoff on a continental scale. Beside well-known regional anomalies of precipitation and runoff that correlate with phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) there are also drifting fields of annual discharge anomalies. Following the trend of the NAO, these fields move along a longitudinal axis from western Europe to the Lena catchment in Siberia and back again. The same pattern is observable in the changing flow regimes. This paper describes the origin and causes of these anomaly fields and explains them as the results of important climate variations in the northern hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of the Australian monsoon to external forcings and related mechanisms during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are investigated by multi-model experiments in CMIP5–PMIP3. Although the annual mean precipitation over the Australian monsoon region decreases, the annual range, or the monsoonality, is enhanced. The precipitation increases in early austral summer and decreases in austral winter, resulting in the amplified annual range, but the main contribution comes from the decreased precipitation in austral winter. The decreased winter precipitation is primarily caused by weakened upward motion, although reduced water vapor also has a moderate contribution. The weakened upward motion is induced by the enhanced land–sea thermal contrast, which intensifies the divergence over northern Australia. The increased Australian monsoon rainfall in early summer, however, is an integrated result of the positive effect of local dynamic processes (enhanced moisture convergence) and the negative effect of thermodynamics (reduced moisture content). The enhanced moisture convergence is caused by two factors: the strengthened northwest–southeast thermal contrast between the cooler Indochina–western Indonesia and the warmer northeastern Australia, and the east–west sea surface temperature gradients between the warmer western Pacific and cooler eastern Indian Ocean, both due to the alteration of land–sea configuration arising from the sea level drop. The enhanced Australian monsoonality in the LGM is not associated with global-scale circulation change such as the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone; rather, it is mainly due to the change of regional circulations around Australia arising from the changes in land–sea contrast and the east–west SST gradients over the Indian and western Pacific oceans. This finding should be taken into account when investigating its future change under global warming. Our findings may also explain why proxy records indicate different changes in Australian monsoon precipitation during the LGM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation/humidity proxies are widely used to reconstruct the historical East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variations based on the assumption that summer precipitation over eastern China is closely and stably linked to the strength of EASM. However, whether the observed EASM-precipitation relationship (e.g., increased precipitation with a stronger EASM) was stable throughout the past remains unclear. In this study, we used model outputs from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III and Community Earth System Model to investigate the stability of the EASM-precipitation relationship over the last millennium on different timescales. The model results indicate that the EASM strength (defined as the regionally averaged meridional wind) was enhanced in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~950-1250 AD), during which there was increased precipitation over eastern China, and weakened during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1500-1800 AD), during which there was decreased precipitation, consistent with precipitation/humidity proxies. However, the simulated EASM-precipitation relationship is only stable on a centennial and longer timescale and is unstable on a shorter timescale. The nonstationary short-timescale EASM- precipitation relationship broadly exhibits a multi-decadal periodicity, which may be attributed to the internal variability of the climate system and has no significant correlation to external forcings. Our results have implications for understanding the discrepancy among various EASM proxies on a multi-decadal timescale and highlight the need to rethink reconstructed decadal EASM variations based on precipitation/humidity proxies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean region is a climate hot spot, sensitive not only to global warming but also to water availability. In this work we document major temperature and precipitation changes in the Iberian Peninsula and margin during the last 2000 years and propose an interplay of the North Atlantic internal variability with the three atmospheric circulation modes (ACMs), (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), east atlantic (EA) and Scandinavia (SCAND)) to explain the detected climate variability. We present reconstructions of sea surface temperature (SST derived from alkenones) and on-land precipitation (estimated from higher plant n-alkanes and pollen data) in sedimentary sequences recovered along the Iberian Margin between the south of Portugal (Algarve) and the northwest of Spain (Galiza) (36 to 42° N). A clear long-term cooling trend, from 0 CE to the beginning of the 20th century, emerges in all SST records and is considered to be a reflection of the decrease in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation that began after the Holocene optimum. Multi-decadal/centennial SST variability follows other records from Spain, Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. Warm SSTs throughout the first 1300 years encompass the Roman period (RP), the Dark Ages (DA) and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). A cooling initiated at 1300 CE leads to 4 centuries of colder SSTs contemporary with the Little Ice Age (LIA), while a climate warming at 1800 CE marks the beginning of the modern/Industrial Era. Novel results include two distinct phases in the MCA: an early period (900-1100 years) characterized by intense precipitation/ flooding and warm winters but a cooler spring-fall season attributed to the interplay of internal oceanic variability with a positive phase in the three modes of atmospheric circulation (NAO, EA and SCAND). The late MCA is marked by cooler and relatively drier winters and a warmer spring-fall season consistent with a shift to a negative mode of the SCAND. The Industrial Era reveals a clear difference between the NW Iberia and the Algarve records. While off NW Iberia variability is low, the Algarve shows large-amplitude decadal variability with an inverse relationship between SST and river input. Such conditions suggest a shift in the EA mode, from negative between 1900 and 1970 CE to positive after 1970, while NAO and SCAND remain in a positive phase. The particularly noticeable rise in SST at the Algarve site by the mid-20th century (±1970), provides evidence for a regional response to the ongoing climate warming. The reported findings have implications for decadal-scale predictions of future climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

DONA 181.8m ice core was recovered from a borehole drilled into bedrock on the western plateau of Mt El'brus (43°20'53.90" N, 42°25'36.0" E; 5115ma.s.l.) in the Caucasus, Russia, in 2009 (Mikhalenko et al., 2015). Here, we report on the results of the water stable isotope composition from this ice core with additional data from the shallow cores. The distinct seasonal cycle of the isotopic composition allows dating by annual layer counting. Dating has been performed for the upper 126m of the deep core combined with 20m from the shallow cores. The whole record covers 100 years, from 2013 back to 1914. Due to the high accumulation rate (1380mmw.e. year-1) and limited melting, we obtained isotopic composition and accumulation rate records with seasonal resolution. These values were compared with available meteorological data from 13 weather stations in the region and also with atmosphere circulation indices, backtrajectory calculations, and Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) data in order to decipher the drivers of accumulation and ice core isotopic composition in the Caucasus region. In the warm season (May-October) the isotopic composition depends on local temperatures, but the correlation is not persistent over time, while in the cold season (November-April), atmospheric circulation is the predominant driver of the ice core's isotopic composition. The snow accumulation rate correlates well with the precipitation rate in the region all year round, which made it possible to reconstruct and expand the precipitation record at the Caucasus highlands from 1914 until 1966, when reliable meteorological observations of precipitation at high elevation began. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multi-decadal to centennial hydroclimate changes in East Africa over the last millennium are studied by comparing the results of forced transient simulations by six general circulation models (GCMs) with published hydroclimate reconstructions from four lakes: Challa and Naivasha in equatorial East Africa, and Masoko and Malawi in southeastern inter-tropical Africa. All GCMs simulate fairly well the unimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation in the Masoko-Malawi region, while the bimodal seasonal cycle characterizing the Challa-Naivasha region is generally less well captured by most models. Model results and lake-based hydroclimate reconstructions display very different temporal patterns over the last millennium. Additionally, there is no common signal among the model time series, at least until 1850. This suggests that simulated hydroclimate fluctuations are mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing. After 1850, half of the models simulate a relatively clear response to forcing, but this response is different between the models. Overall, the link between precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the pre-industrial portion of the last millennium is stronger and more robust for the Challa-Naivasha region than for theMasoko-Malawi region. At the inter-annual timescale, last-millennium Challa-Naivasha precipitation is positively (negatively) correlated with western (eastern) Indian Ocean SST, while the influence of the Pacific Ocean appears weak and unclear. Although most often not significant, the same pattern of correlations between East African rainfall and the Indian Ocean SST is still visible when using the last-millennium time series smoothed to highlight centennial variability, but only in fixed-forcing simulations. This means that, at the centennial timescale, the effect of (natural) climate forcing can mask the imprint of internal climate variability in large-scale teleconnections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Palaeoelevation reconstructions of mountain belts have become a focus of modern science since surface elevation provides crucial information for understanding both geodynamic mechanisms of Earth's interior and the influence of mountain growth on climate. Stable oxygen isotopes palaeoaltimetry is one of the most popular techniques nowadays, and relies on the difference between δ18O of palaeoprecipitation reconstructed using the natural archives, and modern measured values for the point of interest. Our goal is to understand where and how complex climatic changes linked with the growth of mountains affect δ18O in precipitation. For this purpose, we develop a theoretical expression for the precipitation composition based on the Rayleigh distillation and the isotope-equipped atmospheric general circulation model LMDZ-iso outputs. Experiments with reduced height over the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayas have been designed. Our results show that the isotopic composition of precipitation is very sensitive to climate changes related to the growth of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau. Specifically our simulations suggest that only 40% of sampled sites for palaeoaltimetry depict a full topographic signal, and that uplift-related changes in relative humidity (northern region) and precipitation amount (southern region) could explain absolute deviations of up to 2.5%of the isotopic signal, thereby creating biases in palaeoelevation reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Last Interglacial period (~130-115 thousand years ago) the Arctic climate was warmer than today, and global mean sea level was probably more than 6.6m higher. However, there are large discrepancies in the estimated contributions to this sea level change from various sources (the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and smaller ice caps). Here, we determine probabilistically the likely contribution of Greenland ice sheet melt to Last Interglacial sea level rise, taking into account ice sheet model parametric uncertainty. We perform an ensemble of 500 Glimmer ice sheet model simulations forced with climatologies from the climate model HadCM3, and constrain the results with palaeodata from Greenland ice cores. Our results suggest a 90% probability that Greenland ice melt contributed at least 0.6 m, but less than 10% probability that it exceeded 3.5 m, a value which is lower than several recent estimates. Many of these previous estimates, however, did not include a full general circulation climate model that can capture atmospheric circulation and precipitation changes in response to changes in insolation forcing and orographic height. Our combined modelling and palaeodata approach suggests that the Greenland ice sheet is less sensitive to orbital forcing than previously thought, and it implicates Antarctic melt as providing a substantial contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise. Future work should assess additional uncertainty due to inclusion of basal sliding and the direct effect of insolation on surface melt. In addition, the effect of uncertainty arising from climate model structural design should be taken into account by performing a multi-climate-model comparison. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) through regional climate models (RCMs) potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS) techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1) a simple direct method (DM), (2) quantile-quantile mapping (QM) and (3) a distribution- based scaling (DBS) approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961-2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts) project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of discharge series, precipitation fields and flood producing atmospheric circulation patterns reveal that two governing flood regimes exist in the Mulde catchment in south-eastern Germany: frequent floods during the winter and less frequent but sometimes extreme floods during the summer. Differences in the statistical parameters of the discharge data can be found within the catchment from west to east. The discharges are compared to a number of landscape parameters that influence the discharge in the sub-catchments. Triggering circulation patterns were assigned to all events of the annual maximum discharge series in order to evaluate which circulation patterns are likely to produce large floods. It can be shown that the cyclone Vb-weather regime (TM, TRM) generates the most extreme flood events in the Mulde catchment, whereas westerly winds produce frequently small floods. The Vb-weather pattern is a very slowly moving low pressure field over the Gulf of Genoa, which can bring large amounts of rainfall to the study area. It could also be shown that even with the two flood regimes estimates with the annual maximum series provide a safer flood protection with a larger safety margin than using summer maximum discharge series for extreme summer floods only. In view of climate change it is necessary to integrate knowledge about catchment characteristics, the prevailing flood regime or the trends of weather patterns in the estimation of extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]