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The regional impact of climate change on heating and cooling demand is important to consider when designing optimal long-term energy policies. Several studies have addressed this issue, but either at a very aggregated level or without optimizing the whole energy system. The aims of this paper are to fill this gap in a generic way and to assess the impact of climate change on heating and cooling energy demands for residential and commercial sectors at the regional and nodal levels in the context of Chile's energy transition. We propose a methodology based on high resolution climate simulations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. First, a statistical analysis is performed to estimate the long-term trends of so-called heating and cooling degree-days and their impact on final regional energy demands. Then, demand pathways in the energy transition are assessed using a multi-sectoral energy planning model. Numerical experiments using data from Chile show an overall positive economic impact of climate change (limited to heating and cooling demands) for the energy system, with a significant decrease in heating demand compared to a limited increase in cooling requirements. For the RCP 8.5 scenario, cost reductions reach 2.1% of the total discounted system cost on the 2020-2050 period mainly due to a significant decrease of gas consumption for heating. This research highlights the importance for policymakers to consider climate change in efficient energy policies. [Display omitted] • Climate change impact on heating/cooling is assessed for Chile's energy transition. • Significant heating demand decrease and low cooling demand increase are observed. • A global positive economic impact for the energy system is estimated. • For the RCP 8.5 scenario, cost reductions reach 2.1% of the total discounted system cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• FuturES framework optimises electricity scenarios with high renewables penetration. • Reservoir and concentrating solar power modelled based on storage value. • Feasible scenarios created with 81–100% renewables by 2050. • Long-term energy storage helps to achieve low electricity costs. Although electricity supply is still dominated by fossil fuels, it is expected that renewable sources will have a much larger contribution in the future due to the need to mitigate climate change. Therefore, this paper presents a new framework for developing Future Electricity Scenarios (FuturES) with high penetration of renewables. A multi-period linear programming model has been created for power-system expansion planning. This has been coupled with an economic dispatch model, PowerGAMA, to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of the developed scenarios while matching supply and demand. Application of FuturES is demonstrated through the case of Chile which has ambitious plans to supply electricity using only renewable sources. Four cost-optimal scenarios have been developed for the year 2050 using FuturES: two Business as usual (BAU) and two Renewable electricity (RE) scenarios. The BAU scenarios are unconstrained in terms of the technology type and can include all 11 options considered. The RE scenarios aim to have only renewables in the mix, including storage. The results show that both BAU scenarios have a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) lower than, or equal to, today's costs ($72.7–77.3 vs $77.6/MWh) and include 81–90% of renewables. The RE scenarios are slightly more expensive than today's costs ($81–87/MWh). The cumulative investment for the BAU scenarios is $123-$145 bn, compared to $147-$157 bn for the RE. The annual investment across the scenarios is estimated at $4.0 ± 0.4 bn. Both RE scenarios show sufficient flexibility in matching supply and demand, despite solar photovoltaics and wind power contributing around half of the total supply. Therefore, the FuturES framework is a powerful tool for aiding the design of cost-efficient power systems with high penetration of renewables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In Santiago de Chile, the combination of recent urbanization patterns, the growing demand for land, and climate change has created challenges, notably in terms of the amplification of hazard generation and hazard exposure. This paper analyses the changes in land use/land cover, their impact on current flood and heat hazards, and the consequences for dwelling exposure. It adopts a hazard and exposure assessment approach to flood and heat hazard that allows for evaluation of the interlinkages and consequences of interweaving processes of urbanization and climate change in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago de Chile. The results clearly show that loss of green spaces and agricultural land to built-up areas goes hand in hand with the loss of important infiltration, cooling and retention areas, all of which leads to greater hazard exposure. The paper furthermore analyses the exposed population in terms of their material housing conditions. Surprisingly, those who are more likely to live in hazard-prone areas cannot be described exclusively as “the poor”, albeit there are striking differences between flood and heat exposure. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Patagonia features the most extensive glaciers of the Southern Hemisphere, excluding Antarctica, and a vast inventory of glacial landforms, so it is thought to have played a key role in (paleo)glacier studies since the late 19th century. However, no systematic attempts to characterize the specific research trends and the scientific community focused on Patagonian cryosphere have been conducted so far. To fill this gap, we analyzed the metadata associated to 305 articles compiled from the Web of Science database following a bibliometric approach covering the period between 1976 and 2020. Our results point to an irregular but net increase on the number of contributions on Patagonian (paleo)glaciers. Mass balance analyses based on satellite data of present-day glaciers and the reconstruction of past glacier activity by dating glacial landforms formed during the Last Glacial Termination, were the most addressed topics during the analyzed period. Patagonian (paleo)glacier studies are mostly published in generic Earth Sciences publications, followed by Quaternary and glaciological journals. Most of the studies were led by scientists from the United Kingdom, followed by Chile, Argentina and United States. In terms of collaborations, these studies can be divided into two main clusters, one composed by researchers from United States, Chile and Argentina institutions, and another mostly composed by British researchers. So far, the most prolific authors are nearly equally distributed in nationality, yet gender inclusion and international collaborations are still caveats that must be solved. Even though our query on the Web of Science missed highly influential (so-called) grey literature, such as local scientific journals and technical reports, the reviewed scientific literature unambiguously indicates that Patagonia is a privileged location for (paleo)glaciers studies worldwide and that it will continue offering vast opportunities to tackle critical questions related to global cryosphere and past-to-present climate changes. • Patagonia is a privilege site for studying present and past glacier dynamics and the evolution of climate changes at hemispheric and global scale. • Glacier dynamics during the 20th century and and the Last Glacial Termination are the most common topics addressed in past decades in the WOS. • Patagonian (paleo)glacier studies has contributed to the development or improvement of diverse analytical techniques. • United Kingdom, United States, Chile and Argentina produced the largest number of WOS-listed papers on (paleo)glaciers in past decades. • The related scientific community is fairly heterogeneous. Although, inclusion and international collaboration issues still need to improve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small pelagic fish, including anchovies, sardines and sardinellas, mackerels, capelin, hilsa, sprats and herrings, are distributed widely, from the tropics to the far north Atlantic Ocean and to the southern oceans off Chile and South Africa. They are most abundant in the highly productive major eastern boundary upwelling systems and are characterised by significant natural variations in biomass. Overall, small pelagic fisheries represent about one third of global fish landings although a large proportion of the catch is processed into animal feeds. Nonetheless, in some developing countries in addition to their economic value, small pelagic fisheries also make an important contribution to human diets and the food security of many low-income households. Such is the case for many communities in the Zanzibar Archipelago and on mainland Tanzania in the Western Indian Ocean. Of great concern in this region, as elsewhere, is the potential impact of climate change on marine and coastal ecosystems in general, and on small pelagic fisheries in particular. This paper describes data and information available on Tanzania's small pelagic fisheries, including catch and effort, management protocols and socio-economic significance. Then, incorporating the rapidly improving understanding of the region's oceanography resulting from the application of remote sensing and oceanographic modelling, the paper undertakes the most complete assessment to date of the potential impacts of climate change on the small pelagic fishery of the Pemba Channel. Pathways of climate change impact are explored and crucial knowledge gaps, both in terms of the fishery itself and the wider ecosystem, are identified in order to guide future research activities. Although we analyse small pelagics in the specific context of the Pemba Channel, the key challenges identified in the analysis are likely to be relevant to many small pelagic fisheries in coastal nations heavily dependent on living marine resources. Image 1 • Small pelagic fishery provides critical contribution to the food security of the Tanzanian coastal population. • Pemba Channel is a complex dynamics environment, with coastal population heavily reliant on small pelagics for livelihood and food security. • Potential impact of climate change on marine and coastal ecosystems in general, and on small pelagic fisheries in particular is of great concern to the region. • The key research gaps in understanding of the climate change impacts on the future of the small pelagic fishery are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New long-term planning approaches capable of coping with uncertainties such as climate change, rapid urbanization, and changing societal values, have been put forward as a way of producing more robust and sustainable plans for the future. But is the planning practice ready for their adoption? This paper takes four key propositions from the adaptive planning literature and tests the existing capacity for adopting those propositions in the context of Chilean water utilities. We will then propose how existing capacities could be enhanced, and propose alternatives for current planning practices, highlighting the importance of implementation through experimentation. • The literature suggests new approaches to adaptive planning under uncertainty. • Our understanding of utilities' capacity to adopt those approaches is limited. • This paper tests this capacity in the case of water utilities in Chile. • We propose measures for enhancing the existing capacity for adaptive planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies about climate change have emerged in recent years because of their potential impact on many activities of human life, amongst which, the building sector is no exception. Changes in climate conditions have a direct influence on the external conditions for buildings and, thus, on their energy demand. In this context, computer aided simulation provides handy tools that help in assessing this impact. This paper investigates climate data for future scenarios and the effect on energy demand in office buildings in Chile. This data has been generated in the 9 climatic zones that are representative of the main inhabited areas, for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080. Predictions have been produced for the acknowledged A2 ‘medium-high’ Greenhouse Gases emissions GHG scenario, pursuant the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The effect of climate change on the energy demand for office buildings is optimized by implementing the calculation procedure of ISO-13790:2008, based on iterations of its envelope and form. As a result, this research clarifies how future climate scenarios will affect the energy demand for different types of office buildings in Chile, and how their shape and enclosure can be optimized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate change can yield both direct and indirect effects on forest hydrology. • The impacts of climate change on the forest-water nexus are complex among watersheds. • The interactions among forest, water, and climate change introduce more complexities. Climate change can directly affect forest hydrology by altering precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow generation, or indirectly by changing disturbance regimes and forest structures at multiple scales. Climate change impacts on the forest-water nexus across biomes are pervasive characterized by a great complexity and uncertainty, significantly impeding the design of adaptive forest watershed management to mitigate climate change risks. This paper reviews our current knowledge on the interactions between climate change and the forest-water nexus at the scales of individual tree, stand, and watershed. We found that climate change dramatically altered watershed hydrology in many parts of the world, with varying hydrological responses at multiple scales of tree species, forest types, climate types, and hydrological regimes. The streamflow response was often more pronounced in snow-dominated or water-limited watersheds, especially in watersheds with increasing droughts due to climate change and intensively managed plantations of either non-native tree species (e.g., Eucalyptus plantations in Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, and Australia) or young coniferous species. Climate change impacts can be compounded or offset by forest changes (i.e., deforestation, and forestation) through forest-climate interactions and feedbacks. Forest management can mitigate or aggravate the negative hydrologic impacts of climate change. Adaptive forest management is a prerequisite for managing the forest-water nexus in the face of climate change. Various forest management strategies aiming at maintaining optimal forest structure and high species diversity are recommended to enhance forest resistance and resilience to climate change and sustain water provision services from forests and other beneficial ecosystem services while minimizing negative impacts and risks of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CLIGEN (CLImate GENerator) is a stochastic weather generator that produces daily estimates of precipitation and individual storm parameters, including time to peak, peak intensity and storm duration. These parameters are typically used as inputs for other models, such as the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Although CLIGEN has been proven to be effective for predicting daily estimates, some discrepancies have been observed when generating storm parameters, such as the storm duration. Therefore, a study was conducted to evaluate and improve CLIGEN for storm generation. Individual rainfall events were identified from 1-h pluviograph records that were collected from 30 sites in Central Chile. In this study, 415 years of data were used; 18,012 storms were analyzed. In addition, rainfall erosivity was computed for all storms using the prescribed method to compare the energy provided by the measured and generated rainfall events. Using measured rainfall data, a procedure was developed to improve the CLIGEN estimates by calibrating the input parameter that controls the storm durations. This procedure in turn improved the rainfall intensities and erosivities. The model was tested before and after calibration with the measured rainfall data from the 30 sites in both the wet and dry seasons. Based on a monthly rainfall analysis, the results demonstrated that the number of storms and rainfall amounts, which are not affected by the calibration process, were accurately estimated with CLIGEN. However, before the calibration, especially in the wet season, the storm durations and maximum intensities were consistently overestimated and underestimated, respectively, at most of the sites and for most months. Therefore, the annual rainfall erosivities were underestimated with CLIGEN at 19 of the 30 sites. After performing the calibration, the R 2 value for the CLIGEN-generated storm durations increased from 0.41 to 0.65. The maximum intensities also exhibited an improvement; the R 2 value increased from 0.31 to 0.60. Consequently, annual rainfall erosivities were generated with an R 2 value of 0.89; these erosivities were accurately estimated at 29 of the 30 sites. Therefore, this calibration procedure proved to be an effective alternative for generating more reliable storm patterns. This paper explains the procedure in detail and analyzes the parameters related to the individual storm generation process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change represents one of the biggest threats to agriculture today. The aim of this paper is to analyze the decision and intensity of adaptation to this phenomenon among farmers in Central Chile and to identify the factors that influence the adoption of adaptation measures. The list of adaptation practices was created with the assistance of a panel of experts. A two-part hurdle model was used to identify the adoption and intensity of adoption. The decision to adapt is strongly influenced by land tenure security and access to weather information, which increase the probability of adaptation by 13% and 30%, respectively. The intensity of adaptation is highly influenced by affiliation to a farm organization or association, which tends to boost intensity by 72.2%. Land tenure also increases intensity by 44.5%. Years of experience in agriculture and the income obtained from crops in the previous season also have a positive impact. Empirical results reveal that the most effective way to reduce barriers to adaptation is to improve access to information, while a highly relevant mode to increase the intensity of adaptation is to encourage social networking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature that analyses the determinants and measurement of Technological Capabilities (TCs) with empirical evidence on Argentina, Brazil and Chile. Based on the World Bank''s Investment Climate database, the study covers firms from the manufacturing sector. We first construct a Capability Score to provide a preliminary measure of Technological Capabilities at the firm level. We then test it econometrically to explore the determinants of TCs and exports and evaluate their reciprocal relationship through a Two Stage Probit. Our results show that exports and TCs significantly and positively influence each other in some of these countries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper evaluates the chronology of the last glacial cycle and deglaciation in the Lago Pueyrredón valley of central Patagonia, 47.5° S, Argentina. The valley was a major outlet of the former Patagonian Ice Sheet and the moraines that record its fluctuations are an important proxy record of climate change in southern South America. Such moraines are well-preserved in the Lago Pueyrredón valley owing in part to the semi-arid environment east of the mountain front. Here, we provide the first direct chronology for the age of the “Rio Blanco” moraine system by utilizing cosmogenic-nuclide surface exposure ages. Boulders on the moraines give 10Be exposure ages that indicate the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) maximum extent occurred by 27–25ka. Subsequent advances occurred at 23–22ka, 20–18ka, and ca. 18–17ka. Initial deglaciation began after ca. 18–17ka and was interrupted as evidenced by the Lago Columna moraines up-valley. Subsequently the outlet glaciers occupying both the Lago Pueyrredón basin (Chilean name: Lago Cochrane) and the Lago Buenos Aires basin (Chilean name: Lago General Carrera) to the north, rapidly retreated more than 80km at around 16.5–15ka. The timing of the LGM maximum extent and the onset of deglaciation occurred broadly synchronously throughout Patagonia. Deglaciation resulted in a series of interconnected glacier-dammed lakes in the region that initially drained toward the Atlantic Ocean and later drained to the Pacific Ocean as a consequence of disintegrating ice in the Andes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In South America, the arid and semiarid subtropical regions through the Atacama Desert and north-central Chile between 19° and 32°S are currently a gap in the tree-ring chronology network. Only a short tree-ring chronology has been published for this vast region and little is known about the suitability of many woody species for tree-ring analysis and dendroclimatology. In this paper we present the first detailed analysis of the climate responses and influences of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the tree-rings of three species new to dendrochronology and that typically occur at high elevations in the Andes of central and north-central Chile. Three well-replicated tree-ring chronologies of Kageneckia angustifolia, Proustia cuneifolia and Fabiana imbricata are compared with century-long regional records of precipitation and temperature, and with the N3.4 SST and PDO indices in both time and frequency-domains using correlation and wavelet analysis. The radial growth of these species is controlled by winter precipitation and is also positively correlated with temperature during most of the rainy season from April to September (autumn–spring). The regional climate as well as tree growth is strongly modulated by ENSO and ENSO-like conditions in the equatorial Pacific at both interannual and interdecadal timescales. The decadal and interdecadal variability is not correlated with PDO and appears to be related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a Pacific-wide ENSO-like mode of climate variability. Despite their relatively short lifespans, these three new species have a high potential for dendrochronological and dendroclimatic studies in the semiarid region of Chile over the last two centuries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

United Nations' members came together in 2015 and agreed on seventeen sustainable development goals which include hundred and sixty-nine targets related to sustainable development into the overall economic, environmental and social contexts of countries to be achieved by 2030. In order to achieve these goals, more effort may be required than the current policies and strategies. This is particularly true for the energy sector as energy is the key enabler for all development activities. Therefore, there is a need to analyse the required effort and energy to implement these goals based on countries' specific context. The objective of this paper is to assess the indicators of energy-related sustainable development goals and calculate the additional energy requirement to achieve each goal by 2030 for Chile. The key findings of the research indicate that Chile will meet fourteen energy-related sustainable development targets by 2030 under the business as usual scenario. However, Target 2.1, Target 5.b, Target 12.3, Target 13.1, and Target 17.6 require extra energy to meet sustainable development goals in Chile by 2030. Approximately 16 million GJ additional energy is required in order to meet energy-related sustainable development goals in Chile than the business as usual scenario by 2030. This research output can provide insights to researchers trying to assess the achievement of sustainable development goals in other developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A new concept (´endangered living fossil´) is proposed based on conservation and phylogenetic criteria. • Endangered, monspecific genera are good candidates to test whether they are endangered lineages of great evolutionary heritage. • California, Chile and Mediterranean Basin provide 11 examples. • They help infer causes for extinction and survival postdating historical climate changes. • We urge the IUCN to consider evolutionary criteria for species prioritization. Geography and climate have been the main drivers of evolution in recent geological epochs. While new lineages of species have been formed in the last millions of years (speciation) and others have vanished as a result of historical climate changes (extinction), some ancient lineages appear to have persisted to the present day without net diversification. In this paper, evolution of ancient lineages is addressed by combining phylogenetic and conservation approaches to test the concept of 'endangered living fossil' (ELF). Using endangered, monospecific genera as starting point, we propose three criteria to identify ELFs (in order): (1) scarcity and narrow distribution of populations, i.e. the species (and thus the genus) is categorised as either 'endangered' or 'critically endangered' using IUCN criteria; (2) evolutionary distinctiveness, i.e. phylogenetic singularity of a single-species lineage as a result of a null net diversification rate; (iii) ancient divergence, i.e. split from the closest extant relatives predating the dramatic climate changes of particular geological epochs (specifically changes since the Miocene-Pliocene boundary). The vascular flora of the Iberian Peninsula offers a suitable study system to reliably test the ELF concept. Indeed, time-calibrated phylogenies revealed that five of the six critically endangered, monospecific genera endemic to the Iberian Peninsula are ELFs. These five genera appear to have diverged from their closest relatives in the Oligocene (Gyrocaryum), Miocene (Avellara , Castrilanthemum, Gadoria) and around the Miocene-Pliocene boundary (Naufraga). This result entails long-term survival (with no net diversification) through at least three dramatic climate changes: the Messinian Salinity Crisis (late Miocene), the establishment of the mediterranean climate (Pliocene), and the glacial-interglacial cycles (Pleistocene). Using results from the literature, we found examples of ELFs for the mediterranean floras of California (Dodecahema), Chile (Avellanita , Gomortega , Legrandia) and other Mediterranean areas of Europe (Petagnaea , Phitosia). ELFs are unique and threatened lineages representing an exceptional evolutionary heritage, and therefore they should be prioritised in biodiversity research and conservation programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]