Search

Carbon dioxide (CO 2) mitigation in the residential building sector has become critical for China in achieving its carbon peak and neutrality goals. This study is the first to retrospect the historical carbon reduction potential in China's 30 provinces by establishing an equity and efficiency coupling model and comparing the differences in carbon reduction potential under three scenarios: equity priority, efficiency priority scenario, and balance equity with efficiency. The core findings of this study reveal that: (1) China's total CO 2 emissions in residential buildings increased from 975.67 Mt to 1328.47 Mt during 2010–2020, where the provinces with the highest CO 2 emissions are Shandong, Hebei, and Henan; energy intensity and energy carbon emission coefficient are the most critical driving factors affecting the CO 2 emission, followed by floor area per capita and population size. (2) The carbon reduction potential index of residential buildings in eastern provinces is generally higher than that in western provinces; the growth rate of carbon reduction potential is the fastest under the equity priority scenario, and Beijing, Shanghai, and Inner Mongolia have the highest carbon reduction potential. (3) The provinces gradually enter a strong coupling status associated with the climate zones of residential buildings, while the coupling status of the urban area is higher than that of the rural area. Overall, this study adopts a new coupling perspective of equity and efficiency, where the proposed assessment model serves as a reference for measuring the retrospective CO 2 mitigation effect in residential buildings in other countries. • An evaluation approach for the carbon reduction potential of residential buildings was developed. • The core driving factors for carbon emissions from residential buildings were identified. • Three scenarios with distinct preferences for equity and efficiency were determined. • The provincial ranking of carbon reduction potential in urban and rural areas was analyzed. • The causes that promote a strong coupling between equity and efficiency were discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Dynamic scenario analysis illustrated the stepwise decarbonization potential of building operations. • Annual carbon abatement intensities in China and U.S. in 2001–2018 were 9.8 and 17.7 kgCO 2 /m2. • China will hit CO 2 peak in 2039 at 1365 Mt, while carbon lock-in of the U.S. will stabilize at 664 Mt. • Electricity decarbonization (on-site & off-site) is essential for China and the U.S. to go carbon neutral. • Improving energy efficiency is the best practical way to break the operational carbon lock-in. Building operations are the last steps to achieve global carbon neutrality, especially commercial building operations with high emission abatement potential. Taking China and the United States (U.S.) as cases, this study is the first to illustrate a stepwise decarbonization potential to carbon neutrality in regard to global commercial building operations. The results indicate that the historical annual carbon abatement intensity in China's commercial building operations in 2001–2018 was 9.8 kg of carbon dioxide per square meter (kgCO 2 /m2) or 59.9 kgCO 2 /person, while the annual carbon abatement intensity in the U.S. during the same time was 17.7 kgCO 2 /m2 or 353.7 kgCO 2 /person. In the moderate decarbonization scenario, China's commercial building operations will reach the carbon peak at 1365 (± 255) mega-tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO 2) in 2039 (± 5), while the carbon lock-in status in the U.S. will stabilize at 664 (± 155) MtCO 2 after 2030. To further conduct deep decarbonization and realize carbon neutrality, strategies of building-integrated power generation, building electricity decarbonization, and building energy efficiency can achieve 34.3%, 29.7%, and 22.5% of carbon abatement in China and 31.0%, 45.4%, and 10.2% of carbon abatement in the U.S., respectively, by 2060. Moreover, the current mode of improving the energy efficiency level of commercial building operations was reviewed to seek the best practical way to decarbonize operations. Overall, this study provides a reference of a stepwise data analysis for decarbonization potential on commercial building operations across different emitters. [Display omitted]. Graphical abstract. (a) Decarbonization potential and the steps to carbon neutrality of commercial building operations in China and the U.S.; (b) Technical benchmarks of carbon peak status in China's commercial building operations; (c) Technical benchmarks of carbon lock- in the U.S.'s commercial building operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decoupling residential building carbon emissions from residential income has great significance for carbon mitigation and even global climate change. However, the nature of the decoupling relationship between them is still unclear. This study adopts the Tapio decoupling model to explore the decoupling relationship among residential building carbon emissions (TC), per capita carbon emissions (PC), residential carbon intensity (FC) and per capita income (PCI) across 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2015. Then, the Logarithmic Mean Divisa Index (LMDI) model is used to decompose the decoupling of residential building carbon intensity and PCI at the provincial level to determine the main factors determining this relationship. Results show that the main decoupling trend between FC and PCI in 30 provinces transformed from weak decoupling state to strong decoupling state during the whole period, while there is still extensive room for TC and PC to decouple with PCI. PCI has the major inhibiting effect on the decoupling between FC and PCI , while residential energy intensity (EI) has the primarily promoting effect on the decoupling. These findings provide valuable references for international policymakers in formulating precisely targeted energy-saving and carbon-reducing policies to coordinate the relationship between income and carbon emissions, and the results also can be applied to other economies and, to a greater extent, other pollutants. Decomposition of the decoupling between residential building carbon intensity and income level in 30 Chinese provinces during different periods [(a) 2000–2005, (b) 2006–2010, (c) 2011–2015, and (d) 2000–2015]. Unlabelled Image • Explores the decoupling state between residential building CO 2 and residential income at the provincial level. • China has made great progress in decoupling residential building CO 2 and residential income. • Residential energy intensity plays the primary promoting effect on the decoupling status. • Per capita income plays the inhibiting effect on the decoupling state. • The understanding of influencing factors provides references for carbon abatement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon mitigation effectiveness in the building sector profoundly determines the achievement of the "Dual carbon" target. However, the timetable and roadmap for the building sector to achieve such a target are still lacking. This study constructs a STIRPAT-PLS model framework to clarify the impact of the key factors from various dimensions on building carbon emissions across sub-sectors. Then, a dynamic scenario simulation model is established and applied in China to explore the dynamic evolutionary paths, and the timetable and roadmap are ultimately formulated. The results show that building sector will probably peak at 2.99 (± 0.09) Gt CO 2 in 2036 (± 1). Rural residential buildings will peak earliest in 2026 (± 1), followed by urban residential and commercial buildings: in 2036 (± 2) and 2038 (± 1). Achieving carbon neutrality will require the building sector to peak its carbon emissions in 2026 with 2.16–2.40 Gt CO 2. The remaining 0.56–0.81 Gt CO 2 by 2060 will be offset by negative carbon technologies. Dynamic sensitivity analysis shows that building floor space per capita and energy intensity significantly promote the emission peaks, and population and building floor space per capita markedly impact the peaking times. This study can promote the development of the theory and model for carbon emissions prediction. It can also offer a scientific basis for governments to set effective carbon-reduction targets and paths. [Display omitted] • Constructing a STIRPAT-PLS model to clarify the impact of critical factors on building carbon emissions. • Establishing a dynamic scenario simulation model by combining the Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis. • Building sector will probably peak at 2.99 (± 0.09) Gt CO 2 in 2036 (± 1). • Achieving carbon neutrality requires the building sector to peak its carbon emissions in 2026 with 2.16–2.40 Gt CO 2. • Building floor space per capita and energy intensity significantly promote the emission peaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Establishes an integrated dynamic emission assessment model by coupling end-use energy model and system dynamics model. • Explores the dynamic interaction mechanism between macrolevel and microlevel factors as well as technical options. • Commercial buildings will probably hit the emission peak at 1.28Gt CO 2 in 2037 under the BAU scenario. • Lighting and cooling will contribute over 70% to the carbon emission growth. • Technological progress, clean energy, and electrification rate play significant roles in boosting emission peak and peaking time. Carbon-mitigation in the commercial building sector is critical to carbon peaking and carbon neutral commitment. However, there has been little scientific focus on long-term evolutionary trajectories and peak path in this sector. This study innovatively develops an integrated dynamic emission assessment model (IDEAM) by combining the system dynamics model with the bottom-up end-use energy model. Moreover, the IDEAM is combined with the scenario analysis approach to model the dynamic evolution of Chinese commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060. The results show that commercial building carbon emissions will peak at 1.28 Gigatons (Gt) of CO 2 in 2037 under the baseline scenario and will advance toward 2029 with an emissions peak of 0.98 Gt CO 2 under the low-carbon scenario. Cooling and lighting are the two end-uses that contribute most to the growth of carbon emissions at over 70%. These two end-uses indicate different carbon-abatement potentials across climate zones. Sensitivity analysis reveals that promoting technological progress, increasing the share of clean energy, and improving low-carbon awareness are major ways to facilitate the early realization of carbon peaks and carbon neutrality. This study provides a deeper understanding of possible emission pathways and could assist policy-makers in devising scientific carbon mitigation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon-reduction effect of the urban residential building sector is crucial to the carbon neutrality target. This study aims to explore the interaction mechanism among influencing factors and simulate the future evolutionary trajectories of urban residential building carbon emissions (URBCE). An integrated dynamic emission assessment (IDEA) model is innovatively established by coupling the system dynamics (SD) model and a bottom-up end-use decomposition model. Combining with the scenario analysis approach, this IDEA model is applied in China's urban residential building sector from 2000 to 2060. Results show that under the baseline scenario, the URBCE will fail to peak before 2030 but will peak at 1.19 Bt CO 2 in 2037. In comparison, it will peak at 0.79 Bt CO 2 in 2025 and decline to 0.17 Bt CO 2 in 2060 under carbon-neutral scenario, which can be neutralized by negative carbon technologies. Different end-uses and climate zones show marked discrepancies in emission-reduction potential, with the contribution of heating and appliances being over 50%. Sensitivity analyses shows that the low-carbon awareness, electrification rate, proportion of clean energy generation and technological progress contribute positively to the early peak of URBCE. This study provides a deeper understanding of China's potential peaking paths and can assist policy-makers in better evaluating emission paths for other nations and regions. [Display omitted] • Develops an IDEA model by combining system dynamics model and LEAP model. • Explores the interaction and feedback mechanism among different levels of factors. • Simulates the URBCE by combining the IDEA model and scenario analysis approach. • Urban residential buildings will peak at 1.19 Bt CO 2 in 2037 under the BAU scenario. • Different end-uses and climate zones show marked discrepancies in emission-reduction potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(a) Historical carbon emission mitigation of the residential building sector and (b) emission benchmarks of the future residential building sector in China. • Carbon mitigation of the residential building sector in 2000–2015 is 1.817 (±0.643) BtCO 2. • Residential building will achieve its emission peak in 2037 (±4) at 1.419 (±0.081) BtCO 2. • Floor space per capita and energy intensity are determining in the uncertainty of emission peak. • Future residential building energy benchmark should be controlled at 0.703 (±0.042) Btce. • A benchmark of 1.258 BtCO 2 can achieve the residential buildings' 2030 emission peak goal. Fast-growing carbon emissions from the residential building sector are a hindrance for China to achieve its 2030 emission peak goal. To identify future low carbon roadmaps of residential buildings, this study is the first to assess the historical carbon mitigation and simulate the energy and emission peaks of China's residential building sector using a dynamic emission scenario. It shows that the emission mitigation of the residential building sector during 2000–2015 is 1.817 (±0.643) billion tons of carbon dioxide (BtCO 2), and the normal distribution-based scenario simulation demonstrates that the residential building sector will achieve its carbon emission peak in 2037 (±4) with a peak value of 1.419 (±0.081) BtCO 2. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the impacts of floor space per capita and energy intensity of urban residential buildings are the most significant for the uncertainty of emission peaks. A strict energy demand benchmark of the residential building sector suggests a control at 0.661 billion tons of standard coal equivalent (Btce), and its peaking time is estimated for 2035, which is 5 years ahead of the business-as-usual scenario, with energy savings of 0.042 Btce. For the earliest peaking time, if the residential building sector aims to achieve its emission peak before 2030, the emission peak should be controlled at 1.258 BtCO 2. Overall, this paper can assist the government in more accurate and feasible building emission mitigation strategies. Moreover, the results provide a more powerful decision-making reference in issuing targeted and feasible strategies for future residential building emission mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]