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• Paper explores the local state, a framework to connect analyses of state, market and civil society in communities below the national level. • The local state concept is employed here to assess climate change adaptation (CCA), focusing on a case study of water resources in Tucson, AZ. • The Tucson case examines rainwater harvesting and the role of the water industry, local government organizations and civil society groups. • Barriers to CCA can be explained in the context of pre-existing policies and the complex dynamics of the local state. As climate change becomes a more obvious existential threat to many communities, sharper tools are needed to analyze policymaking and especially the variations in effective adaptive planning. While policy creation, preparedness and disaster management are essentially local activities, much analysis simply focuses on cities and overlooks robust tools to understand what happens within communities of all types. This paper explores the local state, an analytical framework which can connect our understanding of state, market and civil society within communities below the level of the nation state. The local state concept is resurgent within the academic literature and this paper shows the potential of this analysis, drawing on empirical examples of climate change adaptation from Tucson AZ and New Orleans, coupled with broader discussion from several countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability of Bayesian networks (BNs) to model complex systems and uncertainties makes it a perfect tool for the research on subfields related to climate change. In fact, in the past 30 years, BNs have been widely used in this field, with 1502 articles in total. Quantitatively understanding influential researchers, institutions, mainstream topics and research trends will help us quickly go deeper into this field. Thus, a scientometric method was conducted. In this paper, we identified the influential authors, journals, countries, institutions, topics and disciplines, key articles and research trends by collaboration network analysis, keyword co-occurrence network and document co-citation network analysis. As a result, we found that environmental sciences technology and water resources were the most popular research subfields, followed by energy fuels and meteorological atmospheric sciences. While as time goes on, research focuses have gradually shifted. Public environmental occupational health will become one of the most popular research subfields in the future. • We review papers of Bayesian networks in the subfields of climate change. • Influential journals, institutions, landmark papers, citation bursts are identified. • Recent topics focus on environmental sciences technology. • Public environmental occupational health will become new hot issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate adaptation policy in a large river basin is explored. • Empirical study of science and policy interactions during actual reforms. • Interviews with senior research policy professionals reveal dynamics of policy formulation. • Proposes legally prescribed procedures for utilising science in environmental policy formulation. Climate change has many disruptive consequences, particularly in large river basins experiencing drying trends and declining water availability. With pressure for more adaptive policies, understanding how institutions governing water are adapting to climate risks has broad international relevance. This paper examines the challenges of climate risk assessments in Australia's Murray Darling Basin, an economically and culturally important basin where national legislation mandates a Basin Plan based on the best available science. However, despite repeated scientific warnings about a drying climate, the current Basin Plan does not reduce estimates of water resources available, and its climate risk management relies on a bricolage of policy mechanisms, which appear insufficient for the magnitude of predicted changes. This paper outlines the findings of original research exploring why this occurred. It draws on interviews with 30 senior public policy professionals and researchers with deep experience in climate and water policy. The interview data indicate that minimising political risks were the principal reasons for abandoning proposed reductions in entitlements and for relying on historical averages for estimating water availability. As the reform process evolved, decisions about water-planning techniques became increasingly politicised, and the adoption of explicit climate adaptation measures became problematic. As a result, the Basin Plan neither reflects the broad scientific consensus about climate change nor makes specific allowances for declining water availability. Climate risks are downplayed while concerns about levels of scientific uncertainties appear overstated. Importantly, lessons emerge from this examination that could contribute to the revisions of the Plan, scheduled for 2026. More generally, the research finds that proactive climate adaptation policies for large river basins require sustained and well-designed institutional reforms, particularly the adoption of legally prescribed procedures for utilising science - and accounting for its use - in controversial environmental reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A revised temperature model is built to study the thermal stratification. • The reservoir has a reverse thermal stratification and two overturning in a year. • Low water level can weaken the stability and lengthen the spring overturning. • High inflow volume can strength the stability and defer the spring overturning. Thermal structure plays a significant role in the aquatic ecosystem of reservoirs. In this paper, thermal structure of a large reservoir for water supply in northeast China has been studied. Considering the reservoir has a 150 days icebound period and the ice cover can affect the heat transfer process, we built a revised numerical simulation model based on EFDC to study the temporal and spatial variation of thermal stratification. The absolute mean error (AME) and mean absolute relative error (MARE) between modeled and observed water temperature are 0.40 °C and 7.15%, respectively. The results indicate that the validated model can successfully reproduce the temporal and spatial variation of water temperature. The model results indicate that the reservoir has a reverse thermal stratification in icebound season and there are two over-turning events in a year. Six hypothetical scenarios including the extreme change in the air temperature, inflow discharge, and the water level had been built to quantify the influences of changes in climate and hydrology conditions on the thermal structure. This paper provides a simplified method for the simulation of the water temperature in the reservoir with an icebound season, which can provide a reference for other reservoirs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports on a study of the determinants of adaptive behavior in face of climate-driven water insecurity, using a survey of 400 urban dwellers in Lima, Peru. Lima is characterized by continuous water stress and is at risk of permanent water scarcity due to climate change. Residents show a general understanding that the climate is changing and have recent experience with climate extremes. We use regression analyses to identify the socioeconomic, socio-institutional, and psychological determinants of adaptive behavior. We examine the differences between climate-responsive and general adaptive behavior, using five indices -- structural, knowledge, consumption, planning, and environmental -- to identify and compare the determinants of both behaviors. Our findings show that education, extended water availability, climate change concern, and cultural environmental values influence adaptive behavior, and each thematic index has distinct set of significant behavioral determinants. We discuss the importance of water-related determinants, the intentionality of adaption behavior, and the need to contextualize the social and psychological realities of urban dwellers in the Global South. • Education, extended water availability, climate change concern, and cultural environmental values influence adaptive behavior. • The climate-responsive and general adaptive behavior determinants that differ are related to self-transcendence values. • Water-specific urban processes prove significant to explain adaptive behavior. • Individuals' social distance to climate change does not prevent them from adapting to climate change. • The assumption that social trust is a condition for adaptation is contested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In High Mountain Asia, human-induced climate warming threatens the cryosphere. Expected long-term reductions in future runoff from glacial catchments raises concerns regarding the sustainability of these natural 'water towers' and the implications of reduced water availability for regional human and ecological systems. Ice-debris landforms (I-DL), containing ice whether moving or not include rock glaciers and ice-cored moraines, and are likely to be climatically more resilient than debris-covered and debris-free glaciers. Recent work has shown that rock glaciers contain globally valuable water supplies yet over High Mountain Asia information regarding their number, spatial distribution, morphometric characteristics and water content are scarce. Here, we present the first systematic estimate of the current extent and distribution of rock glaciers for a subset of High Mountain Asia (the Himalaya). A sample of 2070 intact and relict rock glaciers were digitized on Google Earth imagery from the Western, Central and Eastern Himalaya regions and then quantitative and qualitative characteristics were analysed regionally based on topographic data from the NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Version 3.0 and then aggregated across the Himalaya using an "upscaling" method. The majority of the digitized landforms (∼65%) were categorised as intact rock glaciers (i.e., ice-debris Landforms, or I-DLs, containing ice) and the remainder as relict rock glaciers (i.e., discrete debris accumulations or DDAs, not containing ice). They range in elevation from 3225 to 5766 m a.s.l., with the lowest in the Central Himalaya. Sampled relict and intact rock glaciers are primarily situated on northern quadrants. Over the entire Himalaya, we identified ∼25,000 landforms, with a total estimated areal coverage of 3747 km2. The area upscaling method was validated in the Manaslu region of Nepal using high-resolution Planet data (5 m) and freely available, fine spatial resolution optical satellite data accessed through Google Earth Pro and ESRI basemaps. In absence of complete rock glacier inventories over the Himalaya, our approach proves useful to investigate the nature, distribution and infer potential future behaviour of these landforms across the Himalaya in a changing climate. • Climate change in the mountains of the Himalaya is driving glacier melting and associated changes in water supplies to downstream areas. • This impacts the water supplies for hundreds of millions of people and ecosystems and is seen as a great challenge for future sustainable development in this part of central Asia. • However, large volumes of ice are contained are contained in rock glaciers (ice-debris landforms common in high arid mountains) although research on the number and extent of these in the Himalaya is limited. • In this paper, we present the first systematic estimate of the current extent and distribution of rock glaciers for the Himalaya and show that around 25,000 landforms exist in the region, with a total estimated areal coverage of 3747 km2. • We argue that rock glaciers constitute hydrologically valuable long-term water stores and, with continued climatically-driven glacier recession and mass loss, their value is likely to become increasingly important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Disconnected state-civil society knowledge flows and disconnected socio-ecological systems inhibit efforts to build socio-hydrological resilience to water risks. • Cape Town's marginalized urban spaces, while physically located at the periphery, are in fact central to the city's urban social-hydrological systems. • Ignoring marginalized urban spaces does not only disproportionally affect Cape Town's impoverished communities, but also effectively undermines the socio-hydrological resilience of Cape Town as a whole. In 2017 and 2018, Cape Town faced historically unprecedented water shortages. With the imminent possibility of running out of water, the city's leadership prioritized reducing water demand and expanding new water sources, while also reinvigorating the goal of seeking to build system-level water resilience for the longer term. Beyond the context of Cape Town, the crisis captured global attention, highlighting ongoing and future water security challenges, the realities of climate change, and the critical need to foster transitions towards more resilient water futures. Given that much of the discourse and implementation around water resilience remains squarely focused on the biophysical and engineering aspects of water supply and distribution systems, despite repeated calls for the need for greater attention to issues of equity and power, there remains little understanding of the ways that persistent inequities might serve or inhibit possibilities for urban socio-hydrological (or water) resilience. This paper draws on examples from Cape Town to argue that patterns and legacies of inequality, marginalization, and exclusion erode and inhibit possibilities for water resilience. Providing needed empirical evidence on the nature of these linkages, we theorize that deeply rooted inequities and related dynamics act as "counter-currents"—trends that undermine and present persistent challenges to efforts to enhance socio-hydrological resilience. Documenting examples of disconnections between the state and civil society as well as disconnected socio-ecological systems, we argue that these persistent inequities mean that efforts to achieve socio-hydrological resilience are likely to remain elusive. It is only by foregrounding these processes that it will be possible to make cities more resilient in the face of ongoing and future water-related risks, uncertainties, and climatic and environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A novel approach is proposed for evaluating future intra-basin water resources. • Under the SSP2–4.5 scenario, the MRBM is projected to face water scarcity by 2050. • Population and land use imbalance upstream/downstream reduce the PWR by 37 % and 69 %. • Precipitation, ET, population, agricultural land, and PWR increase downstream. • The upstream areas are expected to have greater PWR per capita and agriculture area. The Major River Basins in Madagascar (MRBM) play a crucial role in providing water to the Malagasy population as well as the ecosystem. Little is known about the impact of climate change on these basins, and it is not clear what factors have the most significant impact on them. There are two central objectives of this study: 1. To assess the future potential water available for daily life and agriculture use across the MRBM. 2. To compare the projected change within the MRBM with the historical trends analysis and identify the water-stressed basins. In this paper, a new method for assessing the future available Intra-basin water resources combined with the impacts of climate change, land use, and population is proposed. Three imbalance indicators are introduced to quantify the spatial availability (indicator N°1), distribution (indicator N°2), and variability (indicator N°3) of the Potential Water Resources (PWR) available and have been applied to the MRBM. Under the SSP2–4.5 scenario, results showed a decreasing trend of the PWR in most of the basins by 2050 with a rise in evapotranspiration and a decline in precipitation. The increasing trend and uneven distribution of the population and agricultural land upstream/downstream are found to cause the reduction of the PWR available per capita (by 37 %) and agriculture area (by 69 %) across the MRBM. This study predicts water scarcity for most of the basins by 2050, especially in the Mangoro and Onilahy Basins. Upstream populations are expected to grow in Mahajamba, Mahavavy, Betsiboka, Manambolo, Tsiribihina, Mangoro, Onilahy, Mananara, and Mandrare basins, along with an expansion of the downstream agricultural land in Sofia, Betsiboka, Manambolo, Mangoky, and Mandrare basins. These findings enhance the cause-effect relationship between climate change, land use change, population growth, and water scarcity in the MRBM. Urgent action is therefore needed for an efficient and sustainable management of these water-stressed basins. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and socioeconomic factors have increased the complexity of urban water supply systems. Thus, fresh water sources are being gradually diversified to improve the reliability and resilience of the systems. However, as the number of source blending options grows, optimization tools are needed to design drinking water supply systems that comply with indicators of cost, resilience, and water quality. This paper proposes a pioneering methodological approach, based on an ant-colony-optimization (ACO) algorithm, to optimize the blending of drinking water from different sources to minimize operational costs of a given system originating from a number of impaired water sources while complying with water quality standards. To evidence the potential of the ACO algorithm to solve such a system, a virtual case study was designed that considers eight fresh water sources, including seawater desalination and potable reuse. Seven scenarios were developed with different weightings to service outage, water conveyance and treatment costs while complying with water quality goals in regard to total organic carbon, nitrates, and total dissolved solids. It was shown that the cost per volumetric unit of water can vary considerably depending on the weightings of the three cost items. This paper provides a rigorous scientific approach to propose a methodology supporting the decision-making process of selecting a mixture of different sources to achieve the overall lowest system cost. Hence, this work contributes to improving the resilience and sustainability of urban water supplies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Integrating an agent-based model into a large-scale distributed hydrologic model. • Evaluating the co-evolution of the CNHS at multiple spatial scales. • Demonstrating the trade-off among FEW sectors under climate change. Managing water resources to meet increasing energy and food demands while maintaining environmental sustainability under climate change is a major challenge, especially when this nexus occurred in a coupled natural–human system (CNHS), where heterogeneous human activities affect the natural hydrologic cycle and vice versa. The relevant research has been limited by the lack of models that can effectively integrate human dynamics and hydrologic conditions with spatial details to examine co-evolutionary systems. To address this challenge, this paper develops a modeling framework that integrates an agent-based model (ABM; human behavior model) into a large-scale, process-based distributed hydrologic model to simulate human decisions endogenously in the hydrologic cycle. We then apply the Decision Scaling approach, an ex-post scenario analysis method, with our integrated model to study the bidirectional feedback of the CNHS under future changing climate conditions. With the Columbia River Basin (CRB) selected as the case study area, the calibration results show that the integrated model can simultaneously capture the historical irrigated water consumption and streamflow dynamics. Modeling results show that the trade-off between irrigated water consumption, hydropower generation, and streamflow will become more pronounced under hotter and wetter climate conditions at both the entire basin and regional (states and provinces) levels. Special attention should be given to "temperature thresholds" of different regions when the trade-off pattern started. The trade-off results can potentially inform the Columbia River Treaty renegotiation and provide insights for long-term water management policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frequent drought disasters have significant impacts on socio-economic and ecosystems, and it is crucial to explore the propagation characteristics of drought for disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper, based on 0.25° × 0.25° grid-point Meteorological hydrological and large-scale climate factor data, the start-to-start, peak-to-peak, and end-to-end drought propagation times, and the periods and rates of drought development and recovery were estimated for 11 regions in the Luanhe River Basin under stationary and non-stationary conditions. The Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) framework was used to construct stationary and non-stationary models to capture the stationary and non-stationary drought characteristics respectively, and then the drought development and recovery patterns, and drought propagation times were assessed. The results showed that under the influence of climate factors, severe drought events occurred in most study areas, the duration of meteorological drought was prolonged by 0.1–0.6 months, and the peak intensity was increased by about 0.05. The severity of hydrological drought increased by 0.2–0.8, and the peak intensity decreased by 0.1–0.2. The rate of development and recovery of hydrological drought was accelerated by 0.1–0.2 per month. The propagation time of start-to-start was shortened by 0.2 months, and the propagation time of end-to-end was extended by 1–2 months. These mean that water resource control authorities need to propose responses to droughts more quickly. • The non-stationary drought indices considering climatic factors were constructed. • The drought propagation time was calculated from start to start, peak to peak, and end to end. • Quantification of the effects of climate change on drought propagation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources in Mediterranean regions are under increasing pressure due to climate change, economic development, and population growth. Many Mediterranean rivers have their headwaters in mountainous regions where hydrological processes are driven by snowpack dynamics and the specific variability of the Mediterranean climate. A good knowledge of the snow processes in the Mediterranean mountains is therefore a key element of water management strategies in such regions. The objective of this paper is to review the literature on snow hydrology in Mediterranean mountains to identify the existing knowledge, key research questions, and promising technologies. We collected 620 peer-reviewed papers, published between 1913 and 2016, that deal with the Mediterranean-like mountain regions in the western United States, the central Chilean Andes, and the Mediterranean basin. A large amount of studies in the western United States form a strong scientific basis for other Mediterranean mountain regions. We found that: (1) the persistence of snow cover is highly variable in space and time but mainly controlled by elevation and precipitation; (2) the snowmelt is driven by radiative fluxes, but the contribution of heat fluxes is stronger at the end of the snow season and during heat waves and rain-on-snow events; (3) the snow densification rates are higher in these regions when compared to other climate regions; and (4) the snow sublimation is an important component of snow ablation, especially in high-elevation regions. Among the pressing issues is the lack of continuous ground observation in high-elevation regions. However, a few years of snow depth (HS) and snow water equivalent (SWE) data can provide realistic information on snowpack variability. A better spatial characterization of snow cover can be achieved by combining ground observations with remotely sensed snow data. SWE reconstruction using satellite snow cover area and a melt model provides reasonable information that is suitable for hydrological applications. Further advances in our understanding of the snow processes in Mediterranean snow-dominated basins will be achieved by finer and more accurate representation of the climate forcing. While the theory on the snowpack energy and mass balance is now well established, the connections between the snow cover and the water resources involve complex interactions with the sub-surface processes, which demand future investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current fabric of urban areas is largely the result of past land development and land-use planning decisions. Historically, there was relatively little consideration of the impact of these decisions upon hydrological systems within and outside urban areas. Despite their close relationship, urban and regional planning and water resources management have typically been carried out separately and guided by different institutional arrangements. The range of impacts of urbanisation on hydrological systems at the city-region scale, and the dependence of urbanised areas upon these systems, call for better integration between the sectors of urban and regional planning and water resources management to ensure the sustainability and resilience of cities and their regions to future changes and uncertainties. This paper evaluates the extent to which planning mechanisms currently support integration between land-use and water resource sectors. The evaluation draws on a comparative analysis of 113 statutory and non-statutory planning mechanisms in three Australian capital city-regions: South East Queensland, and the Melbourne and Perth Metropolitan regions. Results indicate that the function of water at the city-region scale, including its role in supporting environmental connectivity, needs to be better understood and considered by land-use planning systems; improved institutional capacity is required to enable both sectors to deal with future changes and uncertainties related to water resources; and emergent planning trends supportive of the consideration of water connectivity at the city-region scale are yet to be fully implemented. Based on the results, the paper concludes by exploring how the concept of urban metabolism may facilitate better integration between the two sectors, along with the identification of best suited planning mechanisms and needed changes in governance and institutional arrangements conducive to integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Important hydrological changes are observed in Serbia, as well as in many parts of the world. Many national and international projects and studies address climate change and its impact on water resources. Some focus solely on the impact of climate change, while others also assess the impact of land use changes and/or changes in human use of water. Due to differences in climate change and human activities, the different climate and hydrological trends are obtained for the different regions in Serbia. This paper presents the past longterm temperature, precipitation and river discharge trends across Serbia. Second, more important aim of the research, is to assess and forecast average relationships between an increase in air temperature and changes in river discharges and precipitation. This relation could help us to find appropriate regional climate and hydrological models. Even within a single catchment, depending on the regional models used, the initial and other assumptions made, and the impacts assessed, the differences between the results can be small but often significant, too. The reliability of the projections receives little or no consideration. This paper also discusses this topic and attempts to provide some guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The impact of precipitation, slope, and swamp wetland ratio on water yield is not affected by spatial scale and watershed. • Identifying key areas for ecosystem services combined with multiple scenarios can help to take ecological restoration. • The water yield in the Baihe basin is more sensitive on climate change, while the water yield in the Heihe basin is more easily affected by land use changes. • The economic development and ecosystem services can both be ensured by wetland ecological restoration. Water supply is one of the core ecosystem services functions for wetland. Due to the important status of Zoige wetland, assessment of water supply in Zoige wetland is significant for ecological security all over the world. In this paper, Heihe and Baihe basins in Zoige wetland were taken as research objects, the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was used to spatially quantify water supply, with the aims of revealing the driving mechanism of water supply under different basins and spatial scale. We observed the spatial pattern change of water yield under baseline and eleven future scenarios and used the ANOVA of repeated measures and multiple linear regression model to explore the patterns and driving factors of water supply in Heihe and Baihe rivers basins. The research results were as follow. (1) The precipitation is main factor to improve water yield, but this intensity is different in different basins and spatial scale. Topography, climate, vegetation, and percentage of wetland conditions have important impacts on water yield services. However, the impacts of these conditions on water yield were various significantly across different watersheds and spatial scales (excluding factors such as precipitation, slope, and percentage of swamp wetland). (2) The spatial pattern of water yield main was affected by land use change and the amount of water yield main was affected by future climate change. (3) Water yield in the Baihe basin was more sensitive to climate change, while the Heihe basin is more sensitive to land use changes. Wetland ecological restoration strategies can effectively improve regional water yield, especially in the Heihe basin. (4) In all scenarios, the southeast regions of the study region were both the main hot spots of water yield. Wetland ecological restoration strategies have added hot spots in the north regions of the Baihe river basin, reduced hot spots in the middle-south regions of the Heihe basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a framework based on the integration of bottom-up and top-down approaches to assess and quantify the effect of local climate change on carbon and water fluxes in a protected Mediterranean mixed forest. The forest, with an extent of 50 ha, is in a coastal zone and is in decline because of severe summer drought stress. Since 2018, it has been involved in the LIFE PRIMED ecological restoration project. The bottom-up approach used gas exchange measurements and the MOCA model (MOdelling for Carbon Assessment) to quantify photosynthesis and transpiration of the main species in the forest (P. latifolia , P. lentiscus , Q. cerris , and F. angustifolia sub. oxycarpa). The top-down approach used the satellite models C-fix and NDVI-CWS, to quantify and spatialise gross primary production (GPP), net primary production (NPP), and evapotranspiration (ETA) at the forest stand scale. The up-scaling process from leaf to forest stand was made possible by calibrating two key parameters: light use efficiency (ε) and vegetation transpiration coefficient (Kc veg). The results indicate a decline in GPP , NPP , and ETA during the study period (2018–2022) due to the summer drought conditions caused by rising temperatures (16.60 °C in 2018 vs. 16.98 °C in 2022), increased vapor pressure deficit, reduced soil water content, and rainfall (1328 mm in 2018 vs. 468 mm in 2022). In 2018, the annual GPP was 1186.83 ± 351.40 gC/m2y, which decreased to 1128.67 ± 331.21 gC/m2y in 2022. During the dry summer period, GPP ranged from 401.76 ± 119.54 gC/m2y in 2018 to 347.39 ± 101.62 gC/m2y in 2022. Annual ETA rates varied between 1184.86 ± 351.86 mmH₂O/m2y (2018) and 1304.92 ± 384.07 mmH₂O/m2y (2022). The summer ETA rates were significantly influenced by drought conditions, decreasing from 638.73 ± 190.67 mmH₂O/m2y in 2018 to 390.35 ± 108.83 mmH₂O/m2y in 2022. Based on the observed trend in other Mediterranean areas, species-specific responsiveness to local climate change suggests that P. latifolia and P. lentiscus , which are better adapted to water-limited environments, could gradually replace Q. cerris and F. angustifolia subs. o xycarpa. This study provides useful quantitative indications for the management and restoration goals of the area and suggests a methodology that can be applicable in several management practices, particularly for small heterogeneous and fragmented forested areas such as the Mediterranean ones. • High temperature and reduced rainfall influence forest carbon and water fluxes. • Soil Water Availability negatively affects GPP, NPP and ETA trends. • Leaf and stand scale data are analysed through bottom-up and top-down approaches. • Specific light use efficiency (ε) and crop transpiration coefficient (K veg) are used to calibrate satellite-based models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather events have introduced significant losses and it still becomes an important issue in natural disaster management field. This paper proposes a procedure to identify extreme rainfall events occurred in a region, which is an important information for water resource management. The extreme identification can be easily conducted if it involves only climate data recorded in a single site. However, specific treatment has to be defined when the region has multiple sites. It particularly becomes a problem when one needs to study the large scale meteorological pattern dealing with the event. This paper combines the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) with some field considerations for identifying the dates of extreme rainfall events in Indramayu, Indonesia. The results show that extreme rainfall event is defined as rainfall observed in at least 5 stations with extreme amount in each station. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has been facing increasingly severe water scarcity that seriously threatens the socio-economic development and its sustainability of this country. This paper is intended to analyze and assess the water security of China. It first attempts to characterize the current status of water security within a risk-based, integrated framework that encompasses five key aspects critical to water sustainability, including water availability, water use patterns, wastewater generation and pollution control, water institutions and management, and health of aquatic systems and societal vulnerability. Based on the above assessment, the paper then analyzes emerging challenges for water security brought by climate change, population growth and rapid urbanization, and the water-food-energy nexus. In the end, the paper discusses China's future prospects on water security, including current achievements, government actions and policy initiatives, and recommendations for management improvement aimed at increasing water security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate change is disproportionately impacting Africa, yet a research gap remains to cope with related societal challenges. • Empirical research among African practitioners shows that societal challenges are not adequately addressed in practice. • Research and innovation efforts are focused on traditional innovation policy dimensions. • Practitioners and experts are calling to strengthen the knowledge base by engaging local stakeholders and private sector actors. While it is increasingly important to strengthen the existing knowledge base in Africa to adequately respond to the rising risks and impacts of climate change on water resources, a significant research gap remains to identify areas and mechanisms to cope with these societal challenges. The aim of the paper is twofold: i) to provide subject-specific insights by analyzing the current knowledge base in Africa given water-related challenges due to climate change, and ii) to offer methodological insights into how a knowledge base can be studied comprehensively. This study overcomes the limitations of existing studies by combining two different perspectives, namely a thematic focus on six societal challenges and a conceptual focus on five social innovation dimensions. It does so by undertaking an innovative qualitative analysis that combines both top-down and bottom-up perspectives. Top-down, it explores the extent to which five social innovation dimensions are included and addressed in policy agendas and action plans. Bottom-up, it explores the perception of African experts and practitioners in how these knowledge gaps should be addressed. The research identifies a strong bias in the policy arena towards water security versus other water-related societal challenges. Our research suggests that rather than focusing on traditional policy instruments, water-related societal challenges should be addressed by joint attention to all five social innovation dimensions. There is a strong call from practitioners and experts towards strengthening the existing knowledge base by engaging local realities and local stakeholders and for the involvement of business and private sector actors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nicaragua is one of the four countries most affected by climate change, and coffee production is expected to vastly shrink in some critical areas. This can have considerable effects on social structure since nearly a third of its working population depend on coffee for a living. Social perceptions of climate change and water pressures are a key issue in the public's acceptance of adaptation measures. Furthermore, the existing risk for crop production is not necessarily correlated with the farmers’ awareness of that threat. This paper focuses on coffee producers’ perception of risk and adaptive capacity for coffee crops in Nicaragua in response to climate change and water availability. We aim to analyze how dependent the producers are on water resources, and if this reliance affects their perception of risk and their expectations with regard to public and private support for dealing with adaptation. A survey of 212 representative farmers of the national population of farms in the country's two most important production areas was conducted for this purpose. We consider socio-economic and biophysical variables to explain the farmers’ perceptions. Our findings show that experience and technical capacity are relevant to the adaptive capacity although smallholders do not always show high concern and their expectations with regard to external support are very low. The paper can be useful to prioritize the measures necessary for a greater level of involvement from stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary The effects of climate change on water resources have been studied extensively throughout the world through the use of hydrologic models coupled with General Circulation Model (GCM) output or climate sensitivity scenarios. This paper examines the effects of hydrologic model parameterization uncertainty or equifinality, where multiple unique hydrologic model parameter sets can result in adequate calibration metrics, on hydrologic projections from downscaled GCMs for three snowmelt-dependent watersheds (upper reaches of the Clearwater, Gunnison, and Sacramento River watersheds) in the western United States. The hydrologic model used in this study is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and is calibrated for discharge at the watershed outlet in each watershed. Despite achieving similar calibration metrics, a majority of hydrologic projections of average annual streamflow during the 2080s were statistically different, with differences in magnitude and direction (increase or decrease) compared to historical annual streamflows. At the average monthly time-scale, a majority of the hydrologic projections varied in peak streamflow timing, peak streamflow magnitude, summer streamflows, as well as overall increases or decreases compared to the historical monthly streamflows. Snowmelt projections from the SWAT model also widely varied, both in depth and snowmelt peak timing, for all watersheds. Since a large portion of the runoff-producing regions in the western United States is snowmelt-dependent, this has large implications for the prediction of the amount and timing of streamflow in the coming century. This paper shows that hydrologic model parameterizations that give similar adequate calibration metrics can lead to statistically significant differences in hydrologic projections under climate change. Therefore, researchers and water resource managers should account for this uncertainty by assembling ensemble projections from both multiple parameter sets and GCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the way in which Pleistocene climate change and glaciations in Dinaric Mountains was reflected in the deposition of alluvial sediments in the Sava river Valley, using a case study of Belgrade Groundwater Source (BGS), the largest and most downstream alluvial water supply source along the Sava river. A stratigraphic analysis of the Quaternary sediments from two boreholes on this site, based on sediment dating, lithological members identification, grain size distribution analysis was performed. Comparison with the results of dating of the moraines and glacial outwash, the remnants of glaciations in Dinaric mountains of Montenegro, by Hughes et al. and Adamson et al. showed a good match, as the dating of the last four sedimentation cycles yielded the 13.2 ka (start of MIS1), 80.9 ka (MIS 5a), 137.5 (end of MIS6 or start of MIS5) and 193.4 ka (MIS 7) ages, corresponding to MIS1, MIS 5a, end of MIS6 and start of MIS5, and MIS7 stages for glacial outwash, and to MIS2, MIS5b and MIS5d, end of MIS6 and start of MIS5, and MIS8 stages for the moraines. The ages of older cycles were presented as a hypothesis based on aforementioned succession of ages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater represents the most important freshwater resource. In this paper, we applied a spatial approach based on the Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technology to assess the groundwater vulnerability in the Grand Est region from northeastern France. Aquifers media (AM), potential infiltration map (PIM), pollution load index (PLI), and effective precipitation (EP) were the main parameters used in the calculation of groundwater vulnerability. This study proposes a spatial-temporal analysis including past (1961–1990), near future (2011–2040), and more distant future (2041–2070), thereafter called the 1990s, the 2020s, and the 2050s. To validate the results, groundwater monitoring stations data of Nitrate (NO 3 −), dated from 2005 to 2012, was used as reference datasets. The validation of the groundwater vulnerability map was based on pixel pair comparison (PPC) method and it indicates 42.85% perfect confidence and 50% good confidence for the groundwater vulnerability map in 2020s period. The high groundwater vulnerability was found in the Rhine, Marne, and Aube Valleys, while the low and very low vulnerability was depicted in the Vosges, Ardennes Mountains, and some territories form the central region for all three periods. Application of the proposed framework indicates increases of vulnerability up to 60% between 1990s and 2020s and up to 80% between 1990s and 2050s scenarios. The output maps and findings could be useful for the future environmental plans of the region and, in addition, could help mitigate the problems related to water resources, considering the climate expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complicated interrelationship between water and energy makes the water-energy dilemma a complex challenge to be tackled, especially considering the tradeoffs among decision-makers at different hierarchical levels and multiple uncertainties derived from climate change, socio-economic development, technical improvement and decision-making preferences. Thus, a water-energy nexus planning framework would be established in this paper to assist optimal decision-making with bi-level programming and multi-uncertainty. By integrating the regional climate model, multiple linear regression, and bi-level interval flexible programming, an integrated prediction optimization model would be developed as the core of the water-energy nexus planning framework. Then it is applied to planning Zhengzhou City over fifteen years. Multiple scenarios based on electricity demand-supply and carbon dioxide emission satisfaction degrees are analyzed leading to the results of (1) compared to the conventional single-level optimization method, the developed model can achieve the hierarchical goals of water saving and economic suitability; (2) renewable energy will be largely developed and its ratio to electricity generation will reach [26.30, 27.51] % under the limited water availability. Overall, the proposed water-energy nexus planning framework can achieve a balanced water-energy dilemma considering bi-level decision-making preferences and multi-uncertainties, which can be applied to planning water-energy nexus systems at a similar scale. • Regional climate model is used for predicting future electricity demands. • The proposed model addresses bi-level and multi-uncertainty. • Water-energy dilemma towards two different hierarchical levels is assessed. • Optimal solutions provide insights for managing similar scale studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Erratic rainfall and temperatures are causing local water sources in Cameroon to disappear, decline or become unreliable. • Water unavailability increases women's domestic and farm workload but reduces their socio-economic productivity and income. • A proper local land management plan on urbanization and deforestation will reduce women's vulnerability to climate change. • Men's participation in reproductive work lessens the load on women and cause men to value the fight against climate change. • Women's local climate adaptation efforts require a comprehensive national climate strategy for maximum effectiveness. Many rural communities in Cameroon rely on natural sources of water (rivers, springs, and rainfall) for agriculture and domestic use. Access to and reliability of water from these sources depend on changes in rainfall and temperatures. Household roles in Cameroon are traditionally defined along gender lines, with women playing key roles in food production, home management, and caregiving. Water is indispensable for women to successfully accomplish these roles. Climate variability is affecting reliability of water in Cameroon; however, impacts are not the same for men and women in rural communities. This paper examines how climate-induced water challenges adversely affect women's ability to perform their multiple roles in a predominantly farming community in southwest Cameroon. Data collected by survey from a hundred women, supplemented by interviews with local water and agricultural technicians, suggest that climate change has contributed to the disappearance of several water sources and decreased volume of others. This hampers local water availability, compromises women's productivity, and increases the burden on women's triple roles as farmers, caregivers, and home managers. Although individual women are implementing some adaptation strategies, comprehensive public policy measures, including promotion of better land use management and gender-sensitive technologies, are vital to sustain efforts against climate change in Cameroon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Developed a Decision Support Framework to classify uncertainties and management options using participatory scoping for scenarios analysis. • DSS includes: reservoirs water balance, statistical downscaling, hydrological modelling, sediment assessment, water management and decision support for water management plans. • DSS framework was applied to Tandula reservoir Complex, India and performance was evaluated using multi-criteria decision support in the three-layer hierarchal process. • DSS framework provides a solution for strategic water resources planning and management in a basin using the participation of farmers, technocrats, and water resource managers. The climate uncertainties, data scarcity, and socio-techno challenges pose significant threats and options respectively to the future planning of complex water projects in developing countries. This paper attempts to develop a decision support system (DSS) framework to classify uncertainties and management options using participatory scoping for scenarios analysis with the aid of six interrelated modules namely (i) water balance of reservoirs for computation of runoff (ii) statistical downscaling for climate projection (iii) hydrological modelling (iv) sediment assessment (v) water management and (vi) decision support for the assessment of the performance of multiple management plans designed for three future assessment periods of 2020-35, 2046-64 and 2081-99. The proposed framework was applied to the Tandula complex system of Chhattisgarh state of India consists of three reservoirs namely Tandula, Kharkhara, and Gondli having water transfer in their commands and for industrial use. The developed DSS framework provides the opportunity to analyze the management plans with climate uncertainties for the complex water resources projects having data scarcity. Here, in the present paper, the developed DSS framework incorporates eighty-four diverse management plans devised from constant interaction with stakeholders and technocrats resulting to deal with climate uncertainties using possible improvement in efficiencies and consumptive use for three future assessment periods. Furthermore, the performance of the developed plans was evaluated using multi-criteria decision support in the three-layer hierarchal process. The decision support analysis suggested that the second assessment period (FP-2: 2046-64) will be more crucial from the management point of view where 54 out of 81 plans could not perform as par with the present performance of the system. The developed DSS framework provides a solution for strategic water resources planning and management under projected climate scenarios in a basin having problems of scarcity, surplus, and non-uniform distribution of surface water using the participation of farmers, technocrats, and water resource managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change, variability, shifting demands for freshwater, and allocation of scarce water among multiple human and ecosystem needs comprise a set of interlinked adaptation challenges. This paper addresses how organizations and stakeholders can build adaptive capacity and foster adaptive management in a complex but environmentally significant international transboundary region in order to better confront the impacts of global change. To strengthen adaptive capacity, integrated assessments address coupled natural and human drivers of, and responses to hydroclimatic variability, economic globalization, expanding urbanization, and related global-change pressures. However, such assessments have often presumed a degree of uniformity of institutional arrangements. Two allied aims of the paper are to (1) examine the complexity and heterogeneity of institutions in transboundary regions and (2) illustrate how scientists, managers, and other regional stakeholders use collaboration and integrated assessment to confront climate and water challenges. This paper''s insights are based on a research initiative undertaken over more than a decade. Over this period, a binational, interdisciplinary team has conducted integrated-assessment research and established policy dialogue in the Arizona–Sonora section of the U.S.–Mexico border region. The initiative''s suite of projects addresses multiple aspects of water security and have involved key U.S. and Mexican academic institutions that act as boundary organizations, bringing climate scientists together with public and private-sector stakeholders to strengthen adaptive-water-management capacity across national borders. The analysis demonstrates that transboundary adaptive management is significantly strengthened by: binationality and transborder collaboration; involvement of multiple institutions in both countries; understanding of climate information use by water-resources managers; development of easily accessible, easily understandable tools and information products; expansion of binational communities of practice and effectively addressing challenges to their functioning; and, above all, continuity of effort. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced information about the potential variations of the water balance components (e.g. river discharge, groundwater level and volume) due to climate change. Such projections were used to develop potential hazard scenarios for the case study area, to be further applied within climate change risk assessment studies for groundwater resources and associated ecosystems. This paper describes the models'' chain and the methodological approach adopted in the TRUST project and analyzes the hazard scenarios produced in order to investigate climate change risks for the case study area. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: The Senegal River Basin, located in West Africa, has been affected by several droughts since the end of the 1960s. In its valley, which is densely populated and highly vulnerable to climate variability and water availability, agricultural activities provide the livelihood for thousands of people. Increasing the knowledge about plausible trends of drought events will allow to improve the adaptation and mitigation measures in order to build “adaptive capacity” to climate change in West Africa. An innovative methodology for the non-stationary analysis of droughts events, which allows the prediction of regional trends associated to several return periods, is presented. The analyses were based on Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provided by the European ENSEMBLES project for West Africa, together with observed data. A non-stationary behaviour of the annual series of maximum length of dry spells (AMDSL) in the monsoon season is reflected in temporal changes in mean and variance. The non-stationary nature of hydrometeorological series, due to climate change and anthropogenic activities, is the main criticism to traditional frequency analysis. Therefore, in this paper, the modelling tool GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape), is applied to develop regional probability density functions (pdfs) fitted to AMDSL series for the monsoon season in the Senegal River Basin. The skills of RCMs in the representation of maximum length of dry spells observed for the period 1970–1990, are evaluated considering observed data. Based on the results obtained, a first selection of the RCMs with which to apply GAMLSS to the AMDSL series identified, for the time period 1970–2050, is made. The results of GAMLSS analysis exhibit divergent trends, with different value ranges for parameters of probability distributions being detected. Therefore, in the second stage of the paper, regional pdfs are constructed using bootstrapping distributions based on probabilistic models. In general, an increase in the mean and variance statistics of AMDSL at regional level are predicted, thereby increasing the lengths of dry spells associated with a low probability of occurrence (related to high return period) in the monsoon season. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper reports on the conclusions of a workshop dedicated to science and data gaps in EU-funded projects relevant to water resources and water management, where over 25EU projects were represented. Institutional and financial obstacles to data access for use in modeling exercises were identified, and gaps in scientific knowledge that contribute to uncertainty were highlighted. The paper identifies a number of sectors where these gaps often represent crucial barriers to successful research outcomes, and suggests ways and means of alleviating some of these difficulties. One approach could be through the implementation of policies aimed at ensuring free and unrestricted access to data, especially those generated by the numerous research projects that focus on issues of water availability, quality and management. Another complementary initiative could be the setting up of a centralized “clearinghouse” for data exchange between scientists, end-users and policymakers. It is hoped that, if implemented, some of the recommendations formulated in the present paper may help pave the way for a more rapid and efficient production of research results that are of importance for policy guidance at the local, national and supra-national (EU) levels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: In a globally warming climate, observed rates of atmospheric evaporative demand have declined over recent decades. Several recent studies have shown that declining rates of evaporative demand are primarily governed by trends in the aerodynamic component (primarily being the combination of the effects of wind speed (u) and atmospheric humidity) and secondarily by changes in the radiative component. A number of these studies also show that declining rates of observed near-surface u (termed ‘stilling’) is the primary factor contributing to declining rates of evaporative demand. One objective of this paper was to review and synthesise the literature to assess whether stilling is a globally widespread phenomenon. We analysed 148 studies reporting terrestrial u trends from across the globe (with uneven and incomplete spatial distribution and differing periods of measurement) and found that the average trend was −0.014ms−1 a−1 for studies with more than 30 sites observing data for more than 30years, which confirmed that stilling was widespread. Assuming a linear trend this constitutes a −0.7ms−1 change in u over 50years. A second objective was to confirm the declining rates of evaporative demand by reviewing papers reporting trends in measured pan evaporation (E pan) and estimated crop reference evapotranspiration (ET o); average trends were −3.19mma−2 (n =55) and −1.31mma−2 (n =26), respectively. A third objective was to assess the contribution to evaporative demand trends that the four primary meteorological variables (being u; atmospheric humidity; radiation; and air temperature) made. The results from 36 studies highlighted the importance of u trends. We also quantified the sensitivity of rates of evaporative demand to changes in u and how the relative contributions of the aerodynamic and radiative components change seasonally over the globe. Our review: (i) shows that terrestrial stilling is widespread across the globe; (ii) confirms declining rates of evaporative demand; and (iii) highlights the contribution u has made to these declining evaporative rates. Hence we advocate that assessing evaporative demand trends requires consideration of all four primary meteorological variables (being u, atmospheric humidity, radiation and air temperature). This is particularly relevant for long-term water resource assessment because changes in u exert greater influence on energy-limited water-yielding catchments than water-limited ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The overall goal of the present study is to show through a simulation experiment the value of adaptive management under climatic variability and change. The Northern California water resources management system is used as an example of a multi-agency, multi-site, multi-objective water resources management system that supports a trillion dollar economy to demonstrate the utility of the methods and to exemplify the assessment studies. Simulations are performed using an adaptation of the Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) system of Northern California with 6-hourly 1.4° input from the CCSM3.0 climate model for historical/control (1970–2019) and future periods (2050–2099). The present paper examines the assessment of the hydroclimatological sensitivities and a companion paper () examines the assessment of reservoir management sensitivities. The future period was based on the moderate CCSM3.0 A1B scenario. The INFORM system includes an intermediate complexity regional model for dynamic downscaling of the CCSM3.0 scenario output to produce surface precipitation and temperature fields with a 10×10km2 resolution, and snow–soil-channel modeling of all the watersheds upstream of the major reservoirs in Northern California. The flow results indicate a shift in the monthly average flow volume toward earlier times in the year and higher flow variability for the future period. Higher average temperatures in the future period and, consequently, earlier snow pack melt are mainly responsible for these flow changes. Both daytime and nighttime average monthly temperatures are higher in the simulation of the future period for the entire domain with the northern catchments experiencing higher temperature increases. Simulated monthly average precipitation for the future period is higher in the southern high Sierras and lower in the northern drainage basins than the historical period precipitation. The uncertainty in the assessments for Northern California mentioned may be estimated with additional simulations similar to those shown in this work using high spatial and temporal resolution output from different climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: There is increasing concern about the availability of water supplies in developing countries to provide clean drinking water and sanitation as well as providing for irrigation for food security. This has led to hydrologically led investigation to establish the feasibility and storage capacity of potentially new dam sites. This task has become more difficult for hydrologists and others with the uncertainties created by climate change and the measurement of the hydrological, geographical and ecological footprint of new dams. The questions asked by hydrologists are increasingly likely to be required to be cast in terms of the four pillars of sustainability; environmental, economic, social and institutional. Similarly, regional planners have to be more cognisant of the social outcomes of dam development while understanding the wider hydrological context at a watershed and basin level. The paper defines the concept of sustainability assessment in the context of resettlement and analyses its implications for the Bakun Hydro-electric project in Sarawak, Malaysia. Specifically it attempts to address the question of what social sustainability would really mean in the context of communities affected by dam projects, and their catchments using hermeneutics, tradeoffs and offsets. The findings of this question were presented at a hydrological conference held in Santiago in October 2010, based on the outcome of specific questionnaire responses received from indigenous peoples affected by the Bakun Dam hydroelectric project. The paper also offers some insights pertaining to the social sustainability assessment aspects of dams and their catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vulnerability of electric potential generation from water resources has been evidenced due to uncertainties of climatic origin and energy planning. Changes in rainfall regimes are multifactorial phenomena difficult to model. Rainfall is the main natural way of restoring the reservoir levels of hydroelectric power plants. The reduction in rainfall levels may increase in the coming years, resulting in a probable change of the energy matrix configuration of the state of Minas Gerais (MG). This could reduce the share of renewable sources increasing dependence on the importance of energy from fossil fuels, which are the immediate primary sources of energy available. Prior examinations have portrayed the depletion of hydroelectricity in Brazil, or its macro-regions, however this work tries to supply a more focused look at the effects on the electricity and social sectors of the state of Minas Gerais. The study developed in this paper aims to investigate the hydrological potential alteration impacts and consequences on the energy matrix of the state, the greenhouse gas emissions and the social reflexes of these changes due to scenarios motivated by climate change. The investigation intends to show the importance of the water-energy-emissions nexus for energy planning and decision-making, in order to evaluate the best options for dealing with adverse and potentially destabilizing conditions. The results of the analyses show that while hydropower demand was 5.24 Mtoe in 2015, in 2030 the supply of hydropower will be 5.81 Mtoe and 4.72 Mtoe, for the conservative and severe scenarios, respectively. In addition, the effect of climate change may require an increase in the share of non-renewable sources in the energy matrix, which could increase CO 2 e emissions from 4.2% to 7.4% by 2030, compared to the levels in 2016. • Reduction in rainfall levels will change the energy matrix configuration of MG state. • Population growth will boost demand for energy. • It is shown the importance of the water-energy-emissions nexus for energy planning and decision-making. • The energy matrix may considerably increase the CO 2 e emissions by 2030, compared with 2016 levels in the MG state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In mountainous regions, climate change threatens cryospheric water resources, and understanding all components of the hydrological cycle is necessary for effective water resource management. Rock glaciers are climatically more resilient than glaciers and contain potentially hydrologically valuable ice volumes, and yet have received less attention, even though rock glacier hydrological importance may increase under future climate warming. In synthesising data from a range of global studies, we provide the first comprehensive evaluation of the hydrological role played by rock glaciers. We evaluate hydrological significance over a range of temporal and spatial scales, alongside the complex multiple hydrological processes with which rock glaciers can interact diurnally, seasonally, annually, decadally and both at local and regional extents. We report that although no global-extent, complete inventory for rock glaciers exists currently, recent research efforts have greatly elaborated spatial coverage. Using these research papers, we synthesise information on rock glacier spatial distribution, morphometric characteristics, surface and subsurface features, ice-storage and hydrological flow dynamics, water chemistry, and future resilience, from which we provide the first comprehensive evaluation of their hydrological contribution. We identify and discuss long-, intermediate- and short-term timescales for rock glacier storage, allowing a more balanced assessment of the contrasting perspectives regarding the relative significance of rock glacier-derived hydrological contributions compared to other water sources. We show that further empirical observations are required to gain a deeper hydrological understanding of rock glaciers, in terms of (i) their genesis and geomorphological dynamics (ii) total ice/water volume; (iii) water discharge; and (iv) water quality. Lastly, we hypothesise that at decadal and longer timescales, under future climate warming, degradation of ice within rock glaciers may represent an increasing hydrological contribution to downstream regions, and thus increased hydrological significance while rock glacier water stores persist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impact assessment has become a universal concern and attracted more attentions all over the world. The climate change has an increasingly serious impact on water resources and grain production. Strengthening scientific research in relevant fields of climate change and enhancing grain production in order to adapt to climate change is of vital significance to guarantee food security, improve farmers' income and maintain social stability. This paper constructs a new economic-climate model based on the original Cobb-Dougla (C-D) production function by adding climate factors, and empirically analyzes the impacts of climate change on grain yield and illustrates regional differences. Constraints of water resource restriction on agricultural yields and agricultural planting structure are also proposed. Based on the analysis of the correlation between climate change and grain yield, the relationship between the use of irrigation water and irrigation is proposed. Human factors such as agricultural technology innovation, policy mechanism guarantee and increase in farmland water conservancy construction investment can mitigate all kinds of negative impacts of climate warming on the Chinese agricultural water to a certain extent. • Constructs a new economic-climate model based on C-D production. • Taking both natural and socio-economic factors into account for Chinese grain production • Analyzes the impact of climate change on irrigation water and grain yield. • Establishes the relationship between agricultural irrigation water use per unit area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • This is the first work to describe plant's early life stages in the context of species distribution modeling and phenological adjustments. • We discuss how plant responses to water availability during early life stages influence species range formation and abundance. • We highlight the variation in drought sensitivity of various life stages and propose ways to incorporate this into species distribution models. Abstract Drought sensitivity is known to affect plant species distribution. However, since every stage of plant life cycle has its own water requirements, plant performance and productivity is largely influenced by the timing of water stress. Variation in drought sensitivity between stages might explain recently observed changes in tree age structure along environmental gradients as well as species-specific responses to drought, yet it has poorly been taken into account in species distribution models (SDMs). In this paper we discuss how plant responses to water availability during various life stages influence species distribution and abundance. We define the role of water availability at the stage of gametophyte, zygote, seed and seedling and explain the nature of drought-related injuries. Moreover, we review examples that illustrate how plants adjust their phenology to cope with water stress at early stages of plant life cycle. We also discuss possible ways forward of incorporating the effect of water availability on different stages of the reproductive cycle into correlative and process-based plant species distribution models (SDMs) in order to improve the accuracy of their predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Drought is recognized as a major issue in the EU, particularly in the Mediterranean region, posing risks to the environment as well as to local and regional economies. The EU policy on water management is continuously evolving, particularly in relation to water scarcity and drought. Starting with the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC), which sets the general policy framework for water management across the EU, the EC Communication on Water Scarcity and Drought COM(2007) 414 final set the priorities for managing water scarcity and drought risks. Three follow-up reports (COM(2008) 875 final, COM(2010) 228 final and COM(2011) 133) highlighted achievements and yearly progress within the context of the implementation of the Water Framework Directive, whereas guidance has further been provided through the issue of Technical Reports (e.g. the EC Water Scarcity Drafting Group Technical Report 2008–023 on Drought Management, Including agricultural, drought indicators and climate change aspects). The 2012 EU Water Review (“Blue Print for Safeguarding European Waters” will assess achievements and identify further requirements towards long-term sustainable water use across the EU. However, a harmonized approach on drought risk management at the EU level is still lacking, whereas drought risk in several countries and regions has not been yet fully integrated in water management and relevant sectoral policies. This paper focuses on a proposed paradigm shift from crisis to risk management, which is currently gaining ground as a means of reducing societal vulnerability to droughts. The paper underlines the importance of engaging into risk assessment and management practices and identifies policy gaps and requirements for further improvement of the drought management policy framework at all levels of governance: at the EU, at the national and at the river basin and regional levels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights • The metaphor of 'network' encourages research practices that treat individuals, places and knowledges as data points. • There is a need for a new metaphor that encourages transdisciplinary practices to be responsive to difference. • The metaphor of 'meshwork' sensitizes researchers to the emergent properties of transdisciplinary encounters. • Knowing alongly means to learn to tell people's and place's stories and learn to inherit the relations that compose them. Abstract Transdisciplinary research has been promoted as a means of bringing together certified experts and stakeholders to produce knowledge that is policy-relevant, salient, credible, and legitimate to inform decision-making about complex problems. In this article I discuss the limitations of using the 'network' metaphor in transdisciplinary research practice and propose the use of a different metaphor to make transdisciplinary research encounters more attuned to difference. This research is informed by Tim Ingold's use of 'meshwork' as a metaphor for how life is lived along lines of becoming: emergent, indeterminate, contingent, historical, narrative. In this paper, my objective is to explain and illustrate by way of an example of a transdisciplinary climate change adaptation project the need for a new metaphor to convey the open-endedness of transdisciplinary research where subject positions are not conceived in advance of a research encounter, such as in the 'network' metaphor, but erupt in the interstices of research methods, objectives and desired outcomes. The meshwork metaphor implies that transdisciplinarity should be reframed as a practice of attunement to difference, becoming skilled in paying attention, witnessing, and responding to differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and human activities have changed the spatial-temporal distribution of water resources, especially in a fragile ecological area such as the upper reaches of the Minjiang River (UMR) basin, where they have had a more profound effect. The average of double-mass curve (DMC) and Distributed Time-Variant Gain Hydrological Model (DTVGM) are applied to distinguish between the impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources in this paper. Results indicated that water resources decreased over nearly 50 years in the UMR. At the annual scale, contributions of human activities and climate change to changes in discharge were −77% and 23%, respectively. In general, human activities decreased the availability of water resources, whereas climate change increased the availability of water resources. However, the impacts of human activities and climate change on water resources availability were distinctly different on annual versus seasonal scales, and they showed more inconsistency in summer and autumn. The main causes of decreasing water resources are reservoir regulation, and water use increases due to population growth. The results of this study can provide support for water resource management and sustainable development in the UMR basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The predictive drought capacity of a seasonal forecast system was assessed using contingency tables. • An aggregate index for assessing predictive drought capacity was proposed. • The proposed methodology is useful for assessing the skill of climate models to predict droughts. • The dynamical System4 coupled model can be used for forecasting drought events. Abstract Droughts cause significant socio-economic and environmental impacts, so it has become an extremely important element in decision-making within water resource systems. For this reason, the research in this field has increased considerably over the last few decades. In order to be capable of making early decisions and reducing drought impacts, it is necessary to predict the occurrence of such events months or even years in advance. In this sense, various methods have been used to predict the occurrence of droughts. At present, seasonal forecast data can be used to forecast meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and operational droughts. However, the seasonal forecast data of these dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupled models must be analyzed in an exhaustive way, since it is known that these models may not adequately represent the climatic variability at river basin scale. Hence, this paper presents a new methodology for assessing the skill of a climate forecasting system in order to predict the occurrence of droughts by using contingency tables. The indices obtained from the contingency tables are necessary to perform the analysis of the predictive ability of the model in a semi-distributed way. All this taking into account the intensity of droughts using different scenarios based on the threshold below which it is considered to be in drought. Finally, a single value is obtained to determine the predictive ability of the forecasting model for the entire basin. The proposed methodology is applied to the Júcar river basin in Spain. It has been found that the analyzed forecast model shows better results than those obtained using an autoregressive model. Further work is needed to enhance climate forecasting from the perspective of water resources management, however, it should be mentioned that this type of data could be used for drought forecasting, allowing possible mitigation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Among the three sites distributed along the West African latitudinal gradient in the AMMA-CATCH observation system, the experimental setup in the Niamey area of south-west Niger samples the cultivated Sahel environment, for hydrological, vegetation and land surface processes. The objective is to investigate relationships between climate, land cover, and the water cycle, in a rapidly changing semiarid environment. This paper first presents the main characteristics of the area, where previous research, including the EPSAT and HAPEX-Sahel experiments, had evidenced a widespread decadal increase in water resources, concurrently with severe drought conditions. The specifics of AMMA-CATCH research and data acquisition at this site, over the long-term (∼2001–2010) and enhanced (∼2005–2008) observation periods, are introduced. Objectives and observation strategy are explained, and the main characteristics of instrument deployment are detailed. A very large number of parameters – covering rainfall, vegetation ecophysiology, phenology and production, surface fluxes of energy, water vapour and CO2, runoff and sediment, pond water, soil moisture, and groundwater – were monitored at local to meso scales in a nested structure of sites. The current state of knowledge is summarized, connecting processes and patterns of variation for rainfall, vegetation/land cover, and the terrestrial hydrologic cycle. The central role of land use and of its spectacular change in recent decades is highlighted. This paper provides substantial background information that sets the context for papers relating to the south-west Niger site in this AMMA-CATCH special issue. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Urban areas of developing countries are facing increasing water scarcity and it is possible that this problem may be further aggravated due to rapid changes in the hydro-environment at different scales, like those of climate and land-cover. Due to water scarcity and limitations to the development of new water resources, it is prudent to shift from the traditional ‘supply based management’ to a ‘demand management’ paradigm. Demand management focuses on measures that make better and more efficient use of limited supplies, often at a level significantly below standard service levels. This paper particularly focuses on the intermittent water supplies in the cities of developing countries. Intermittent water supplies need to be adopted due to water scarcity and if not planned properly, results in inequities in water deliveries to consumers and poor levels of service. It is therefore important to recognise these realities when designing and operating such networks. The standard tools available for design of water supply systems often assume a continuous, unlimited supply and the supplied water amount is limited only be the demand, making them unsuitable for designing intermittent supplies that are governed by severely limited water availability. This paper presents details of new guidelines developed for the design and control of intermittent water distribution systems in developing countries. These include a modified network analysis simulation coupled with an optimal design tool. The guidelines are driven by a modified set of design objectives to be met at least cost. These objectives are equity in supply and people driven levels of service (PDLS) expressed in terms of four design parameters namely, duration of the supply; timings of the supply; pressure at the outlet (or flow-rate at outlet); and others such as the type of connection required and the locations of connections (in particular for standpipes). All the four parameters are calculated using methods and techniques that recognise the relationship between outflow at a water connection and the pressure experienced at that connection. The paper presents a case study where it is demonstrated that the new guidelines can provide an equitable and acceptable level of service throughout the design horizon of the project. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Policy makers have now recognised the need to integrate thinking about climate change into all areas of public policy making. However, the discussion of ‘climate policy integration’ has tended to focus on mitigation decisions mostly taken at international and national levels. Clearly, there is also a more locally focused adaptation dimension to climate policy integration, which has not been adequately explored by academics or policy makers. Drawing on a case study of the UK, this paper adopts both a top-down and a bottom-up perspective to explore how far different sub-elements of policies within the agriculture, nature conservation and water sectors support or undermine potential adaptive responses. The top-down approach, which assumes that policies set explicit aims and objectives that are directly translated into action on the ground, combines a content analysis of policy documents with interviews with policy makers. The bottom-up approach recognises the importance of other actors in shaping policy implementation and involves interviews with actors in organisations within the three sectors. This paper reveals that neither approach offers a complete picture of the potentially enabling or constraining effects of different policies on future adaptive planning, but together they offer new perspectives on climate policy integration. These findings inform a discussion on how to implement climate policy integration, including auditing existing policies and ‘climate proofing’ new ones so they support rather than hinder adaptive planning. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The research project GLOWA-Danube, financed by the German Federal Government, is investigating long-term changes in the water cycle of the upper Danube river basin (77,000km2) in light of global climatic change. Its aim is to build a fully integrated decision-support tool “DANUBIA” that combines the competence of 11 different research institutes in domains covering all major aspects governing the water cycle—from the formation of clouds, to groundwater flow patterns, to the behaviour of the water consumer. Both the influence of natural changes in the ecosystem, such as climate change, and changes in human behaviour, such as changes in land use or water consumption, are considered. DANUBIA is comprised of 15 individual disciplinary models that are connected via customized interfaces that facilitate network-based parallel calculations. The strictly object-oriented DANUBIA architecture was developed using the graphical notation tool UML (Unified Modeling Language) and has been implemented in Java code. All models use the same spatial discretisation for the exchange of data (1×1km grid cells) but are using different time steps. The representation of a vast number of relevant physical and social processes that occur at different spatial and temporal scales is a very demanding task. Newly developed up- and downscaling procedures [Rojanschi, V., 2001. Effects of upscaling for a finite-difference flow model. Master’s Thesis, Institut für Wasserbau, Universität Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany] and a sophisticated time controller developed by the computer sciences group [Hennicker, R., Barth, M., Kraus, A., Ludwig, M., 2002. DANUBIA: A Web-based modelling and decision support system for integrative global change research in the upper Danube basin. In: GSF (Ed.), GLOWA, German Program on Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle Status Report 2002. GSF, Munich, pp. 35–38; Kraus, A., Ludwig, M., 2003. GLOWA-Danube Papers Technical Release No. 002 (Danubia Framework), Software-Release No.: 0.9.2, Documentation Version: 0.10, Release Date: 27 March 2003] are required to solve the emerging problems. After a first successful public demonstration of the DANUBIA package (nine models) in May 2002 [Mauser, W., Stolz, R., Colgan, A., 2002. GLOWA-Danube: integrative techniques, scenarios and strategies regarding global change of the water cycle. In: GSF (Ed.), GLOWA, German Program on Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle (Phase I, 2000–2003) Status Report 2002. GSF, Munich, pp. 31–34], the research consortium is now preparing a first validation run of DANUBIA for the period 1995–1999 with all 15 models. After successful completion of the validation, a scenario run based on IPCC climate scenarios [IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. In: Watson, R.T., Core Writing Team (Eds.), A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 398pp] for a five year period between 2025 and 2040 will follow at the end of 2003. The research group “Groundwater and Water Resources Management” at the Institute of Hydraulic Engineering, Universität Stuttgart, is contributing both a three-dimensional groundwater flow model of the catchment and an agent-based model for simulating water supply and distribution. This paper gives a general overview of the GLOWA-Danube project and describes the groundwater modeling segment. Nickel et al. deal with the water supply model in a second contribution to this special issue. A three-dimensional numerical groundwater flow model consisting of four main layers has been developed and is in a continual state of refinement (MODFLOW, [McDonald, M.G., Harbaugh, A.W., 1988. A modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model: US Geological Survey Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, Washington, USA (book 6, Chapter A1)]). One main research focus has been on the investigation of upscaling techniques to meet the requirement of a fixed 1×1km cell size. This cell size is compulsory for all models in DANUBIA in order to facilitate a one to one parameter exchange. In a second stage, a transport model (nitrogen) will be added (MT3D: [Zheng, C., Hathaway, D.-L., 1991. MT3D: a new modular three-dimensional transport model and its application in predicting the persistence and transport of dissolved compounds from a gasoline spill, with implications for remediation. Association of Ground Water Scientists and Engineers Annual Meeting on Innovative Ground Water Technologies for the ’90s, National Ground Water Association, Westerville, Ohio, USA. Ground Water 29 (5)]. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In response to a congressional mandate, the US Global Change Research Program organized a National Assessment of Climate Change focusing on geographic regions (e.g. Alaska, Great Plains) and sectors (e.g. public health, agriculture, water resources). This paper describes methodology and results of a study by researchers at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory contributing to the water sector analysis. The subsequent paper makes use of the water supply results to estimate the climate change impacts on irrigated agriculture. The vulnerability of water resources in the conterminous US to climate changes in 10-year periods centered on 2030 and 2095 as projected by the Hadley/United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) general circulation model (GCM; HadCM2) were modeled using the Hydrologic Unit Model for the United States (HUMUS). HUMUS, a biophysically based hydrology model, consists of a Geographical Information System (GIS) that provides data on soils, land use and climate to drive the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The modeling was done at the scale of the eight-digit United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hydrologic Unit Area (HUA) of which there are 2101 in the conterminous US. Results are aggregated to the four- and two-digit (major water resource region, MWRR) scales for various purposes. Daily records of maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation (PPT) from 1961 to 1990 provided the baseline climate. Water yields (WY), used as a measure of water supply for irrigation, increases from the 1961–1990 baseline period over most of the US in 2030 and 2095. In 2030, WY increases in the western US and decreases in the central and southeast regions. Notably, WY increases by 139 mm (35%) from baseline in the Pacific Northwest. Driven by higher temperatures and reduced precipitation, WY is projected to decrease in the Lower Mississippi and Texas Gulf basins. The HadCM2 (2095) scenario projects a climate significantly wetter than baseline, resulting in water yield increases of 38% on average. Water yield increases are projected to be significant throughout the eastern US—39% in the Ohio basin, for example. Water yields increase significantly in the western US, as well—57 and 76% in the Upper and Lower Colorado, respectively. Climate change also affects the seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Early snowmelt is induced in western basins, leading to dramatically increased water yields in late winter and early spring. The simulations were run at current (365 ppm) and elevated (560 ppm) atmospheric CO2 concentrations [CO2] to account for the potential impacts of the ‘CO2-fertilization’ effect. The effects of climate change scenario were considerably greater than those due to elevated [CO2] but the latter, overall, decreased losses and augmented increases in water yield. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate variability and insufficient irrigation are primary constraints to stable and higher agricultural productivity and food security in Nepal. Agriculture is the largest global freshwater user, and integration of surface- and ground-water use is frequently presented as an strategy for increasing efficiency as well as climate change adaptation. However, conjunctive management (CM) planning often ignores demand-side requirements and a broader set of sustainable development considerations, including ecosystem health and economics of different development strategies. While there is generic understanding of conjunctive use, detailed technical knowhow to realize the CM is lacking in Nepal. This article presents a holistic framework through literature reviews, stakeholders consultations and expert interviews for assessing CM and implementation prospects from a systems-level perspective. We demonstrate the framework through a case study in Western Nepal, where climatic variability and a lack of irrigation are key impediments to increased agricultural productivity and sustainable development. Results show that knowledge of water resources availability is good and that of water demand low in the Western Terai. Additional and coordinated investments are required to improve knowledge gaps as well as access to irrigation. There is therefore a need to assess water resources availability, water access, use and productivity, to fill the knowledge gaps in order to pave pathways for CM. This paper also discusses some strategies to translate prospects of conjunctive management into implementation. • Customized framework development for assessing prospects for conjunctive management. • Conjunctive management status in western Nepal assessed by applying the framework. • Knowledge on water availability and demand are moderate and low, respectively. • Additional and coordinated investments required to improve access to irrigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how climate change strategies and resource conflicts are shaping each other in the Greater Aural region of western Cambodia. Agro-industrial projects linked to climate change goals are reshaping both social and ecological dynamics, by altering patterns of access to land and water resources as well as the nature of the resources themselves. Using a landscape perspective, we investigate these social and ecological changes occurring across space and time. Drawing on data from community researchers, field visits, interviews and secondary sources, we examine two kinds of connections between climate change responses and resource conflicts in the Greater Aural: 1) demand for biofuels as a driver of flex crop expansion; and 2) the construction of irrigation infrastructure as a climate change adaptation strategy. Findings include that some impacts of flex crop expansion and irrigation systems are local and immediate, for example when villagers lose land, plantation workers are not paid, and cassava processing pollutes local water supplies. Other impacts are transferred to different locations or deferred to the future, for example when changes in water quality and quantity affect those living downstream, or when soil degraded by cassava production becomes unproductive for future generations. We conclude that climate change strategies are now deeply entangled with resource conflicts in the Greater Aural region. Adopting a landscape perspective and working directly with community researchers opens new pathways for identifying not only site-specific, but also cumulative and shifting impacts of climate change strategies and their relationship to resource conflicts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to develop new, resilience type metrics for long-term water resources management under uncertain climate change and population growth. Resilience is defined here as the ability of a water resources management system to ‘bounce back’, i.e. absorb and then recover from a water deficit event, restoring the normal system operation. Ten alternative metrics are proposed and analysed addressing a range of different resilience aspects including duration, magnitude, frequency and volume of related water deficit events. The metrics were analysed on a real-world case study of the Bristol Water supply system in the UK and compared with current practice. The analyses included an examination of metrics’ sensitivity and correlation, as well as a detailed examination into the behaviour of metrics during water deficit periods. The results obtained suggest that multiple metrics which cover different aspects of resilience should be used simultaneously when assessing the resilience of a water resources management system, leading to a more complete understanding of resilience compared with current practice approaches. It was also observed that calculating the total duration of a water deficit period provided a clearer and more consistent indication of system performance compared to splitting the deficit periods into the time to reach and time to recover from the worst deficit events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The water resources are exhausted by the increasing demand related to the population growth. They are also affected by climate circumstances, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. These areas are already undergoing noticeable shortages and low annual precipitation rate. This paper presents a numerical model of the Sfax shallow aquifer system that was developed by coupling the geographical information system tool ArcGIS 9.3 and ground water modeling system GMS6.5’s interface, ground water flow modeling MODFLOW 2000. Being in coastal city and having an arid climate with high consumption rates, this aquifer is undergoing a hydraulic stress situation. Therefore, the groundwater piezometric variations were calibrated for the period 2003–2013 and simulated based on two scenarios; first the constant and growing consumption and second the rainfall forecast as a result of climate change scenario released by the Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources and the German International Cooperation Agency “GIZ” using HadCM3 as a general circulation model. The piezometric simulations globally forecast a decrease that is about 0.5 m in 2020 and 1 m in 2050 locally the decrease is more pronounced in “Chaffar” and “Djbeniana” regions and that is more evident for the increasing consumption scenario. The two scenarios announce a quantitative degradation of the groundwater by the year 2050 with an alarming marine intrusion in “Djbeniana” region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]