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• A new hybrid prediction system is proposed to predict wind speed. • Simplex and chaotic mapping optimization cuckoo algorithm are proposed. • An uncertainty prediction model based on Monte Carlo method is proposed. • The energy theory is proposed to optimize the decomposition mode number. • Theories proofs and experiments verify the effectiveness of the model. Wind energy has strong volatility and intermittent. Accurate wind speed prediction can not only improve the safety of the system, but also optimize dispatch and reduce economic losses. However, previous studies tend to ignore the influence of virtual components and lack effective identification of wind speed characteristics and a robust interval prediction scheme, resulting in poor results. To bridge these gaps, this paper proposes an energy theory method to solve the problem of modal over-decomposition. The study also combines effective modal recognition, uses different prediction methods according to modal characteristics and proposes a set of new optimization algorithms to improve nonlinear prediction capabilities. Finally, based on Monte Carlo theory, a set of interval prediction schemes that can adapt to different error characteristics are proposed. Under the verification of wind speed data in Changma, China and Sotavento, Spain. The mean absolute percentage error of wind speed deterministic prediction reaches 4.22% and 5.82%, respectively. The coverage rate of wind speed uncertainty prediction meets different confidence requirements, and the average interval width is still less than 2.5 m/s at 90% confidence. The results show that the forecasting system proposed in this paper is significantly better than all the comparative forecasting schemes, which can reduce the risk of fluctuations and improve the stability and safety of the wind power system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents an evolutionary algorithm for wind speed reconstruction from synoptic pressure patterns. The algorithm operates in a search space formed by grids of pressure measures, and must classify the different situations into classes, in such a way that a measure of wind speed in a given point is minimized among patterns assigned to the same class. Then, each class is assigned a mean wind speed and direction, so the wind speed reconstruction is possible for a new grid of synoptic pressures. In this paper we present the problem model and the specific description of the evolutionary algorithm proposed to solve the problem. We also show the good performance of the proposed method in the reconstruction of the average wind speed in six wind towers in Spain. The proposed method is applicable to wind speed reconstruction or reconstruction of wind missing data of wind series, specially when there is no other variable or related measure available. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, we explore the differential factors and issues that arise as regards the application of General Morphological Analysis (GMA) to private sector companies, as opposed to public institutions (its main target so far). In order to identify the specific nature of the challenge posed for application of GMA in private companies, we conducted a survey among a number of managers in 27 companies which we believed had potential for application of GMA. Our aim was to provide insights into the way in which potential candidates for GMA view and approach their own complex problems (and the way in which they define a “complex problem”), as well as into their preferred problem-solving approaches and methodologies. Our findings suggested that there are a number of common issues to private-sector companies, as well as sector-specific issues, which should be taken into account when considering the application of GMA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Offshore wind energy generation has experienced an important growth in the last five years, reaching currently an installed capacity of almost 8000 MW. The most important references in this type of technology are Denmark, Holland, Sweden, Germany and United Kingdom. In Spain, previsions for technology, have been set at around 750 MW of installed power during the period 2011–2020. However, Spanish coastal features, social opposition to installations near the coast and lack of a stable regulatory environment guaranteeing the investments are factors which are restraining the development of this technology. This paper presents a brief review of the state of the art of offshore wind technology and it describes the most frequently used types of turbines, transmission systems and support structures in Europe. It also presents the current situation and the expected growth of offshore wind power facilities, introducing the characteristics of the operational – and under construction – windfarms. Finally, it analyses particular problems and solutions for its development in Spain which can be extrapolated to countries with similar circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, we present an extension to the mixed-model sequencing problem with work overload minimisation (MMSP-W) for production lines with serial workstations and parallel homogeneous processors. The extension is intended to meet the industrial need to sequence various products so that the work required and completed at the workstations over time is as constant as possible. Several approaches are proposed to formulate the problem, giving rise to different models. Four models are selected, and their performances are compared after running the Gurobi solver, using instances from the literature and a case study of the Nissan powertrain plant in Barcelona. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We present a novel transmission expansion planning model that explicitly considers a multi-year planning horizon. The proposed formulation is a mixed-integer linear problem that can be solved using commercially available software. The algorithm determines the best overall transmission expansion plan, reflecting both investment and operational costs. To analyze the results obtained from the model, we use a set of efficiency metrics to appraise the effect of the expansion among generators and demands, as well as congestion metrics to measure changes in nodal prices and line congestions. This paper also provides a case study that considers the expansion plan for a transmission system based on the one of mainland Spain. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The need to obtain automatic filters to treat wind data is clear due to the huge amount of data available in any wind farm analysis. Automatic detection of performance deviations of wind turbines is required for maintenance purposes. In spite of some alarms being registered by the wind farm’s SCADA system, many times automatic use of real data use is not valid due to its low quality. In this paper, the problems to carry out the characterization of the turbines in a wind farm are stated and a new technique to filter the data is presented. The robust statistical technique of the Least Median of Squares (LMedS) combined with a random search is adapted to deal with this problem with promising results. A mathematical model representing the dependency of the wind turbine behaviour in function not only of the wind speed but also of other variables such as the direction of the wind is also proposed. The results achieved are tested with long term real data from wind farms in Spain. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background and objectives: Epidemiological models of epidemic spread are an essential tool for optimizing decision-making. The current literature is very extensive and covers a wide variety of deterministic and stochastic models. However, with the increase in computing resources, new, more general, and flexible procedures based on simulation models can assess the effectiveness of measures and quantify the current state of the epidemic. This paper illustrates the potential of this approach to build a new dynamic probabilistic model to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in different compartments. Methods: We propose a new probabilistic model in which, for the first time in the epidemic literature, parameter learning is carried out using gradient-free stochastic black-box optimization techniques simulating multiple trajectories of the infection dynamics in a general way, solving an inverse problem that is defined employing the daily information from mortality records. Results : After the application of the new proposal in Spain in the first and successive waves, the result of the model confirms the accuracy to estimate the seroprevalence and allows us to know the real dynamics of the pandemic a posteriori to assess the impact of epidemiological measures by the Spanish government and to plan more efficiently the subsequent decisions with the prior knowledge obtained. Conclusions: The model results allow us to estimate the daily patterns of COVID-19 infections in Spain retrospectively and examine the population's exposure to the virus dynamically in contrast to seroprevalence surveys. Furthermore, given the flexibility of our simulation framework, we can model situations —even using non-parametric distributions between the different compartments in the model— that other models in the existing literature cannot. Our general optimization strategy remains valid in these cases, and we can easily create other non-standard simulation epidemic models that incorporate more complex and dynamic structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]