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Highlights • We implement an autoregressive model using PE ratio to predict 1-day ahead returns. • Our adaptive optimization model can capture conditional volatility of returns. • Our optimized portfolios can produce superior-out-of-sample risk-adjusted returns. Abstract We propose an investment strategy based on the Black–Litterman model with conditional information. We present how observed price-earnings ratio and past returns can be used to determine 1-step ahead returns, considering investors with different risk profiles. The provided approach updates the conditional probability distribution of asset returns and mitigates asset allocation instability due to estimation errors. Our case study using Brazilian data shows the resulting optimal portfolios outperform traditional mean-variance portfolios even in an emerging market with one of the highest nominal interest rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investment decisions in renewable energy sources such as small hydro, wind power, biomass and solar are frequently made in the context of enormous uncertainty surrounding both intermittent generation and the highly volatile electricity spot prices that are used for clearing of trades. This paper presents a new portfolio-based approach for selecting long-term investments in small-scale renewable energy projects and matching contracts for the sale of the resulting electricity. Using this approach, we have formulated a stochastic optimisation model that maximises a holding company's risk-averse measure of value. Using an illustrative example representative of investment decisions within the Brazilian electricity system, we investigate the sensitivity of the optimised portfolio composition and commercialisation strategy to contract prices in the free contracting environment and to the decision maker's attitude towards risk. The numerical results demonstrate it is possible to reduce significantly financial risks, such as the price-quantity risk, not only by exploiting the complementarity of the considered renewable sources generation profiles, but also by selecting the optimal mix of commercialisation contracts from different markets. We find that the multi-market strategy generally results in appreciably higher optimal value than single-market strategies and can be applied to a wide range of renewable generators and contracts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a nonparametric approach based on adjustable robust optimization to consider correlated nodal demand uncertainty in a joint energy and reserve scheduling model with security constraints. In this model, up- and down-spinning reserves provided by generators are endogenously defined as a result of the optimization problem. Adjustable robust optimization is used to characterize the worst-case load variation under a given user-defined uncertainty set. This paper differs from recent previous work in two respects: (i) nonparametric correlations between nodal demands are accounted for in the uncertainty set and (ii) based on the binary expansion linearization approach, a mixed-integer linear model is provided for the optimization related to the worst-case demand. The resulting problem is formulated as a trilevel program and solved by means of Benders decomposition. Empirical results suggest that the effect of nodal correlations can be effectively captured by the robust scheduling model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydropower is one of the world's primary renewable energy sources whose usage has profound economic, environmental, and social impacts. We focus on the dispatch of generating units and the storage policy of hydro resources. In this context, an accurate assessment of the water opportunity-cost is crucial for driving the sustainable use of this scarce resource. Nevertheless, traditional computational tools use stochastic dual dynamic programming under the Hazard-Decision (HD) modeling simplification, where dispatch decisions are determined assuming perfect information about the current inflows. In practice, however, some dispatch decisions are made before water inflows are observed, i.e., under a Decision-Hazard (DH) scheme. This inconsistency generates an optimistic assessment of the opportunity cost of the water, inducing a sub-optimal use of energy resources. Thus, our objectives are: (i) to raise awareness of the HD issue bridging research and implementation with a clear recommendation to system operators and regulators; (ii) to incorporate the DH scheme into the long-term hydrothermal scheduling problem; (iii) to assess the economic impacts and other market distortions due to the actual energy usage policy based on the HD simplification. For a representative case-study with realistic data from the Brazilian power system, results show that the HD simplification introduces a regret cost of 12%. Furthermore, we show that incorporating the DH scheme into the hydrothermal planning model, the energy supply cost can be reduced up to 5.3%. We also show that spot-price distortions and expensive thermal generation could be mitigated in the DH scheme. • SDDP applied to hydrothermal dispatch relies on Hazard-Decision (HD) approximation. • The applied HD approximation implies in one-step-ahead anticipative process. • Proposed Decision-Hazard (DH) model considers here-and-now decisions in each stage. • Numerical simulations based on the Brazilian case reveals an overcost of 12% due to HD. • Incorporating the DH model, simulations show a reduced overcost up to 5.3%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Real-time operation of electric power systems under high penetration of renewable energy generation has to incorporate strategies for managing the uncertainty associated with this type of power sources. In the case of the unit commitment problem, models based on robust optimization have been widely used for the day-ahead computation of power dispatch and reserves schedule. Typical approaches use uncertainty sets with fixed levels of conservativeness, without considering the real-time performance of the solutions. This paper proposes a solution scheme for the adaptive robust unit commitment problem using online adjusted data-driven uncertainty sets. Conservativeness parameters of the uncertainty sets are dynamically calculated as a function of previous operating results and incoming data via reinforcement learning, resulting in an online learning-optimization framework. The paper also develops an experimental framework to simulate real-time operation under the proposed methodology. Out-of-sample experiments illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme against well-known benchmarks with fixed robustness levels. Results show improvements in power generation costs, voltage violations, and use of reserves. Two systems of different sizes are analyzed, illustrating the scalability of the proposed approach. • Q-learning algorithms for data-driven robust uncertainty sets adaptation. • Uncertainty sets dynamical adaptation based on real-time system indicators. • Novel framework for real-time power systems operation simulation. • Results comparison against two-stage robust and stochastic optimization approaches. • Statistically significant lower generation costs and use of system reserves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]