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Climate-driven increases in wildfires, drought conditions, and insect outbreaks are critical threats to forest carbon stores. In particular, bark beetles are important disturbance agents although their long-term interactions with future climate change are poorly understood. Droughts and the associated moisture deficit contribute to the onset of bark beetle outbreaks although outbreak extent and severity is dependent upon the density of host trees, wildfire, and forest management. Our objective was to estimate the effects of climate change and bark beetle outbreaks on ecosystem carbon dynamics over the next century in a western US forest. Specifically, we hypothesized that (a) bark beetle outbreaks under climate change would reduce net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) and increase uncertainty and (b) these effects could be ameliorated by fuels management. We also examined the specific tree species dynamics—competition and release—that determined NECB response to bark beetle outbreaks. Our study area was the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB), CA and NV, USA, an area of diverse forest types encompassing steep elevation and climatic gradients and representative of mixed-conifer forests throughout the western United States. We simulated climate change, bark beetles, wildfire, and fuels management using a landscape-scale stochastic model of disturbance and succession. We simulated the period 2010–2100 using downscaled climate projections. Recurring droughts generated conditions conducive to large-scale outbreaks; the resulting large and sustained outbreaks significantly increased the probability of LTB forests becoming C sources over decadal time scales, with slower-than-anticipated landscape-scale recovery. Tree species composition was substantially altered with a reduction in functional redundancy and productivity. Results indicate heightened uncertainty due to the synergistic influences of climate change and interacting disturbances. Our results further indicate that current fuel management practices will not be effective at reducing landscape-scale outbreak mortality. Our results provide critical insights into the interaction of drivers (bark beetles, wildfire, fuel management) that increase the risk of C loss and shifting community composition if bark beetle outbreaks become more frequent.

Drought is considered to enhance susceptibility of Norway spruce (Picea abies) to infestations by the Eurasian spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus, Coleoptera: Curculionidae), although empirical evidence is scarce. We studied the impact of experimentally induced drought on tree water status and constitutive resin flow, and how physiological stress affects host acceptance and resistance. We established rain-out shelters to induce both severe (two full-cover plots) and moderate (two semi-cover plots) drought stress. In total, 18 sample trees, which were divided equally between the above treatment plots and two control plots, were investigated. Infestation was controlled experimentally using a novel 'attack box' method. Treatments influenced the ratios of successful and defended attacks, but predisposition of trees to infestation appeared to be mainly driven by variations in stress status of the individual trees over time. With increasingly negative twig water potentials and decreasing resin exudation, the defence capability of the spruce trees decreased. We provide empirical evidence that water-limiting conditions impair Norway spruce resistance to bark beetle attack. Yet, at the same time our data point to reduced host acceptance by I. typographus with more extreme drought stress, indicated by strongly negative pre-dawn twig water potentials.

Understanding disturbance interactions and their ecological consequences remains a major challenge for research on the response of forests to a changing climate. When, where, and how one disturbance may alter the severity, extent, or occurrence probability of a subsequent disturbance is encapsulated by the concept of linked disturbances. Here, we evaluated 1) how climate and forest habitat variables, including disturbance history, interact to drive 2000s spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) infestation of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) across the Southern Rocky Mountains; and 2) how previous spruce beetle infestation affects subsequent infestation across the Flat Tops Wilderness in northwestern Colorado, which experienced a severe landscape-scale spruce beetle infestation in the 1940s. We hypothesized that drought and warm temperatures would promote infestation, whereas small diameter and non-host trees, which may reflect past disturbance by spruce beetles, would inhibit infestation. Across the Southern Rocky Mountains, we found that climate and forest structure interacted to drive the 2000s infestation. Within the Flat Tops study area we found that stands infested in the 1940s were composed of higher proportions of small diameter and non-host trees ca. 60 years later. In this area, the 2000s infestation was constrained by a paucity of large diameter host trees (> 23 cm at diameter breast height), not climate. This suggests that there has not been sufficient time for trees to grow large enough to become susceptible to infestation. Concordantly, we found no overlap between areas affected by the 1940s infestation and the current infestation. These results show a severe spruce beetle infestation, which results in the depletion of susceptible hosts, can create a landscape template reducing the potential for future infestations.

This study, using the panel data modeling approach, investigates the relationships between climatic variables and southern pine beetle (SPB) (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann) infestations and assesses the impact of global climate change on SPB infestation risk and damage. The panel data model alleviates possible collinearity among climatic variables, accounts for the effect of omitted or unobserved variables, and incorporates natural and human adaptation, thus representing a more robust approach to analyzing climate change impacts. SPB outbreaks in Louisiana and Texas appeared to move together; infestations in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Tennessee were highly correlated; and Virginia demonstrated its unique temporal pattern of SPB outbreaks. Salvage harvest was found to be helpful in lessening future infestation risk. Warmer winters and springs would positively contribute to SPB outbreaks with spring temperature showing a more severe and persistent impact than winter temperature; increases in fall temperature would ease SPB outbreaks; and summer temperature would have a mixed impact on SPB infestations. Compared to temperature, precipitation would have a much smaller impact on SPB infestations. While increases in the previous winter, spring, and fall precipitation would enhance SPB outbreak risk in the current year, a wetter summer would reduce infestations 3 years later. Global climate change induced by doubling atmospheric CO2 concentration would intensify SPB infestation risk by 2.5–5 times. If the changes in the area and productivity of southern pine forests due to climate change are accounted for, SPB would cause even more severe damage, 4–7.5 times higher than the current value of trees killed annually. # 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1- One expected effect of global climate change on insect populations is a shift in geographical distributions toward higher latitudes and higher elevations. Southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis and mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae undergo regional outbreaks that result in large-scale disturbances to pine forests in the south-eastern and western United States, respectively. 2- Our objective was to investigate potential range shifts under climate change of outbreak areas for both bark beetle species and the areas of occurrence of the forest types susceptible to them. 3- To project range changes, we used discriminant function models that incorporated climatic variables. Models to project bark beetle ranges employed changed forest distributions as well as changes in climatic variables. 4- Projected outbreak areas for southern pine beetle increased with higher temperatures and generally shifted northward, as did the distributions of the southern pine forests. 5- Projected outbreak areas for mountain pine beetle decreased with increasing temperature and shifted toward higher elevation. That trend was mirrored in the projected distributions of pine forests in the region of the western U.S. encompassed by the study. 6- Projected outbreak areas for the two bark beetle species and the area of occurrence of western pine forests increased with more precipitation and decreased with less precipitation, whereas the area of occurrence of southern pine forests decreased slightly with increasing precipitation. 7- Predicted shifts of outbreak ranges for both bark beetle species followed general expectations for the effects of global climate change and reflected the underlying long-term distributional shifts of their host forests.

The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, is a natural disturbance agent of considerable consequence in western pine forests. This economically and ecologically important insect has a strong requisite for maintaining a strict seasonality. Given this ecological requirement, it is somewhat surprising that no evidence for diapause or other physiological timing mechanism has been found. Seasonality and phenological timing for this species are apparently under direct temperature control. The consequences of direct temperature control were investigated by first constructing a computationally efficient phenology model based on previously published temperature dependent developmental data. The dynamic properties of this model were explored when subjected to observed microhabitat temperatures representing a range of thermal habitats from one region of the mountain pine beetle distribution (Idaho, USA). The consequences of global climate change on phenology and seasonality were also investigated. The results indicate that an adaptive seasonality is a natural consequence of the interaction between developmental parameters and seasonal temperatures. Although this adaptive phenology appears to be resilient to temperature fluctuations, changes in climate within the magnitude of predicted climate change under a CO2 doubling scenario are capable of shifting a thermally hostile environment to a thermally benign environment. Similarly, increasing temperature by the same amount resulted in phenological disruption of a previously favorable thermal habitat. The implications of these results for restricting the current distribution of mountain pine beetle, and the potential for shifting distribution caused by global climate change are discussed.

This paper scrutinizes the assertion that knowledge gaps concerning health risks from climate change are unjust, and must be addressed, because they hinder evidence-led interventions to protect vulnerable populations. First, we construct a taxonomy of six inter-related forms of invisibility (social marginalization, forced invisibility by migrants, spatial marginalization, neglected diseases, mental health, uneven climatic monitoring and forecasting) which underlie systematic biases in current understanding of these risks in Latin America, and advocate an approach to climate-health research that draws on intersectionality theory to address these inter-relations. We propose that these invisibilities should be understood as outcomes of structural imbalances in power and resources rather than as haphazard blindspots in scientific and state knowledge. Our thesis, drawing on theories of governmentality, is that context-dependent tensions condition whether or not benefits of making vulnerable populations legible to the state outweigh costs. To be seen is to be politically counted and eligible for rights, yet evidence demonstrates the perils of visibility to disempowered people. For example, flood-relief efforts in remote Amazonia expose marginalized urban river-dwellers to the traumatic prospect of forced relocation and social and economic upheaval. Finally, drawing on research on citizenship in post-colonial settings, we conceptualize climate change as an ‘open moment’ of political rupture, and propose strategies of social accountability, empowerment and trans-disciplinary research which encourage the marginalized to reach out for greater power. These achievements could reduce drawbacks of state legibility and facilitate socially-just governmental action on climate change adaptation that promotes health for all.

Mountain lakes are often situated in protected natural areas, a feature that leads to their role as sentinels of global environmental change. Despite variations in latitude, mountain lakes share many features, including their location in catchments with steep topographic gradients, cold temperatures, high incident solar and ultraviolet radiation (UVR), and prolonged ice and snow cover. These characteristics, in turn, affect mountain lake ecosystem structure, diversity, and productivity. The lakes themselves are mostly small, and up until recently, have been characterized as oligotrophic. This paper provides a review and update of the growing body of research that shows that sediments in remote mountain lakes archive regional and global environmental changes, including those linked to climate change, altered biogeochemical cycles, and changes in dust composition and deposition, atmospheric fertilization, and biological manipulations. These archives provide an important record of global environmental change that pre-dates typical monitoring windows. Paleolimnological research at strategically selected lakes has increased our knowledge of interactions among multiple stressors and their synergistic effects on lake systems. Lakes from transectsacross steep climate (i.e., temperature and effective moisture) gradients in mountain regions show how environmental change alters lakes in close proximity, but at differing climate starting points. Such research in particular highlights the impacts of melting glaciers on mountain lakes. The addition of new proxies, including DNA-based techniques and advanced stable isotopic analyses, provides a gateway to addressing novel research questions about global environmental change. Recent advances in remote sensing and continuous, high-frequency, limnological measurements will improve spatial and temporal resolution and help to add records to spatial gaps including tropical and southern latitudes. Mountain lake records provide a unique opportunity for global scale assessments that provide knowledge necessary to protect the Earth system.

Significance Incidents of extreme heat due to global warming pose a growing threat to human health. The health effects of extreme heat depend not only on exposure, however, but also on behavioral responses, which are related to perceived risk. We show that risk perceptions vary at multiple scales across the United States. Some vulnerable populations have higher risk perceptions, such as low-income urban residents, whereas risk perceptions are lower among other vulnerable populations, including places with high proportions of elderly residents. This paper also extends multilevel regression and poststratification methods to a high spatial resolution and independently validates the results. Detailed risk-perception maps can facilitate urban and rural planning for heat waves, targeted risk communication, and resource management in local contexts., Extreme heat is the leading weather-related cause of death in the United States. Many individuals, however, fail to perceive this risk, which will be exacerbated by global warming. Given that awareness of one’s physical and social vulnerability is a critical precursor to preparedness for extreme weather events, understanding Americans’ perceptions of heat risk and their geographic variability is essential for promoting adaptive behaviors during heat waves. Using a large original survey dataset of 9,217 respondents, we create and validate a model of Americans’ perceived risk to their health from extreme heat in all 50 US states, 3,142 counties, and 72,429 populated census tracts. States in warm climates (e.g., Texas, Nevada, and Hawaii) have some of the highest heat-risk perceptions, yet states in cooler climates often face greater health risks from heat. Likewise, places with older populations who have increased vulnerability to health effects of heat tend to have lower risk perceptions, putting them at even greater risk since lack of awareness is a barrier to adaptive responses. Poorer neighborhoods and those with larger minority populations generally have higher risk perceptions than wealthier neighborhoods with more white residents, consistent with vulnerability differences across these populations. Comprehensive models of extreme weather risks, exposure, and effects should take individual perceptions, which motivate behavior, into account. Understanding risk perceptions at fine spatial scales can also support targeting of communication and education initiatives to where heat adaptation efforts are most needed.

Historic Canadian elections in 2015, both federally and provincially, created an opportunity for action on climate policy. While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of Canadian climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change's causes varies geographically, with more attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.

Previous studies have indicated a widespread decline in snowpack over Utah accompanied by a decline in the snow–precipitation ratio while anecdotal evidence claims have been put forward that measured changes in Utah’s snowpack are spurious and do not reflect actual change. Using two distinct lines of investigation, this paper further analyzes the winter precipitation regime in the state of Utah. First, by means of observation-based, gridded daily temperature, precipitation, and remotely sensed data, as well as utilizing a climatological rain–snow threshold (RST) temperature method, the precipitation regime of Utah was scrutinized. Second, a comprehensive synoptic analysis was conducted as an alternate means that is independent from surface observations. It was found that the proportion of winter (January–March) precipitation falling as snow has decreased by 9% during the last half century, a combined result from a significant increase in rainfall and a minor decrease in snowfall. Meanwhile, observed snow depth across Utah has decreased and is accompanied by consistent decreases in snow cover and surface albedo. Weather systems with the potential to produce precipitation in Utah have decreased in number with those producing snowfall decreasing at a considerably greater rate. Further circulation analysis showed that an anomalous anticyclone has developed over western North America, which acts to reduce the frequency of cyclone waves impacting Utah. Combined with the increased precipitation, this feature suggests that the average precipitation per event has intensified with more of it falling as rain than as snow. Trends in the hydroclimate such as these have implications for present and future regional water policy in the state of Utah.